GDT Champs @ Snakes 6/15

[SFGRTB]

Does anyone know anything about Dan Otero? He was promoted to AAA to make room for Hembree, but he's got some solid stats. A pure reliever, but 23 walks in 177.1 minor league innings, along with 123 K's.

Who is this guy?

Dan Otero Stats, Bio, Photos, Highlights | MiLB.com Stats | The Official Site of Minor League Baseball

 

[gp956]

Why not? By my count, they have $73MM committed to next year to seven guys: Zito, RoRo, Huff, Cain, Weez, Freddy, and Affeldt's buyout. Add in Timmy ($20), Chez ($8), Torres ($4), Lopez ($3), RamRam ($2), Vogey ($3), Pablo ($4), and Romo ($1) and you've got $118MM with 12 spots to fill on the roster.

A lot of those will be cheap contracts: Nate, Buster, Bum, Belt, Runzler, Crawford, maybe Neal, maybe Ford, maybe Hector Sanchez, maybe Brown, maybe Burriss.

But then you've still got to fill a couple of spots and you're over $120MM already.

C: Posey
1b: Huff
2b: Freddy
SS: Crawford
3b: Panda
OF: Torres, Belt, Neal
SP: Tim, Chez, Cain, Bum, Vogs
RP: Weez, Romo, Lopez, RamRam, Casilla, Runzler, Zito

5 more spots to fill. Do you sign Ross? $8MM. Fonty? $2MM. Nate? $1-2MM.

I don't think we can afford $3.25MM for a backup catcher, unless we're going to expand the budget pretty significantly.

Because if Buster is healthy the Giants can always trade Torrealba. With the scarcity of catching around, I'm sure they can give him away (worst case they eat a million). Chump change, and not to have to go through this every year when it comes to budgetary concerns, but if Torrealba is the difference in making the playoff then any salary they "eat" is offset by extra income.

 

[calsnowskier]

Does anyone know anything about Dan Otero? He was promoted to AAA to make room for Hembree, but he's got some solid stats. A pure reliever, but 23 walks in 177.1 minor league innings, along with 123 K's.

Who is this guy?

Dan Otero Stats, Bio, Photos, Highlights | MiLB.com Stats | The Official Site of Minor League Baseball

I feel like he has been around forever. I remember him being the heir apparent to Weez a while back, but his name just kinda fell off the face of the planet a year or two ago. With Runz, Edlefsen, Stofel, and now Hembree, I am not sure where he ranks anymore.

 

[tzill]

You must have this saved somewhere. You explain this so many times. I'm thinking Ross is gone, Belt plays LF/RF in 2012 and in 2013 Belt moves to 1B, Peguero and Brown man the OF after Huff leaves.

Also, Lopez will be a free agent and I know there will be teams out there willing to give him more than $3 million and RamRam made 2 this year, I'd expect a raise, even for a reliever.

I'm not so sure another team would top 2 years/$6MM for Lopez; or that they'd top it by enough to get him to leave. He's got it very good here -- he's managed by a guy who almost always puts him in a situation to look good and for most teams he's a LOOGY. I think 2/6 keeps him here.

RamRam makes $1.6 this year and is arb eligible...I doubt he'll get much more than $2MM seeing as he's a middle inning guy.

I think you're right and that they won't be able to afford Ross. And I agree on Belt and Brown as well. I'm hopeful for Peguero too. By 2013, we could have a lineup of:

C -- Posey
1b-- Belt
2b--Panik
SS--Craw
3b--Panda
LF--Neal
CF--Brown
RF--Peguero
SP--Tim, Chez, Cain, Bum, Wheeler
RP--Weez, Romo, Casilla, Runzler, Hembree

All from our own org. One last year of Zito (though he might be pretty tradeable by 2013); and big contracts to Timmy, Cain, Chez, and Weez, (possibly Panda in arb). The rest would be pretty cost controlled.

Bottom line: Sabean is a mad fucking genius. We are fairly stocked with positional and pitching talent in the minors, we have a crop of ready/nearly ready prospects who will be very inexpensive for a number of years, and only four or five guys making big coin.

Oh, and we have the BEST FUCKING PITCHING, 1-12, IN BASEBALL.

You know, baseball, where pitching is 80% of the game. Our future is so bright, we're gonna need shades.

 

[tzill]

Interesting idea, but Voges is 33, so can he hold the spot long enough for Verdugo, Surkamp or Wheeler to be ready?

Surkamp MAY be ready for a #5 spot next year, but he is beginning to show some injury issues (was just placed on the DL yesterday, following his DL stint late last season). Verdugo may be ready by mid/late '12, but that is pushing. Wheeler should be ready mind/late '13.

Agreed re: Wheeler. My thought is that Tanner is closer to the majors than Surkamp. However, you follow the minors more closely, thoughts?

 

[tzill]

He is arbitration eligible, but I'm not sure what year. Not first year I know that.

He'll be Arb 3 this winter...final year.

 

[gp956]

If I understand Sabean correctly, he will overpay to get help.

Now, if it's only slightly overpaying and short term, it works fine.

He used to run into trouble when he then signed the guy a new expensive contract.

If executed properly, the GM looks bad (slightly) for slightl overpaying a guy having a good season (maybe above career numbers), but the team benefits immediately.

Looking at it another way, there is a balance between not overpaying for players when buying and making the season memorable. If there is a good catcher having a productive season, I am OK with slightly overpaying. But getting a bargain who is not much better than what you have though his career numbers indicate he might bounce next year is good for the GM's reputation but not much for the team this season. Whether that bargain player will bounce in the second half is just speculation and one can give consideration to that.

So, you weight different factors.

To me, I look at the current numbers, not career numbers in computing my offering price.

And if a player can help immeidately for any contending, I believe it's the GM's duty to slightly overpay (I am not talking about a new expensive contract at some later point) if that's the asking price.

You might have to lose the battle in order to win the war...something I don't think Billy Beane has shown. I believe he's always about winning every single little battle.

If it's free like Hall, and we are desperate, why not, even if his current nubmers are bad? It was the same with Burrell last year; otherwise, I would need good working current numbers to make an offer.

Can someone break this convoluted mess down for me?

 

[tzill]

RamRam may be gone, he's in his 3rd year of arbitration and should get around $4 million. With the guys we have in the minors it's just too much money that we could use else where (like on Lopez).

This will be an interesting situation with Volgelsong since he's arbitartion eligible. There might be a chance they trade Sanchez, probably the most serious it's ever been. I'd say, if they extend Lincecum and Cain, Sanchez will be gone.

I really doubt RamRam will command that much money. He's a middle reliever and he's arb controlled. He won't have the stats to make that much in arb. He'll settle for $2MM for 2012 or $4/2 years is my guess.

 

[tzill]

Because if Buster is healthy the Giants can always trade Torrealba. With the scarcity of catching around, I'm sure they can give him away (worst case they eat a million). Chump change, and not to have to go through this every year when it comes to budgetary concerns, but if Torrealba is the difference in making the playoff then any salary they "eat" is offset by extra income.

Good points. Maybe Yorvit isn't particularly liked in the clubhouse? I wouldn't think that would be a deal breaker though.

I can't think of another reason but the money, honestly.

 

[tzill]

Can someone break this convoluted mess down for me?

It did kind of hurt my brain a little bit. I think Step is saying that he doesn't want Pudge, and Yorvit isn't enough of an upgrade to justify the price, based on this year's stats which he gives more weight to.

Or, I'm completely wrong and he's a nutbag. Always tough to tell with Step.

 

[gp956]

Good points. Maybe Yorvit isn't particularly liked in the clubhouse? I wouldn't think that would be a deal breaker though.

I can't think of another reason but the money, honestly.

I think it's personality. Although, defensively, he does move around a bit too much for my tastes, i.e. he gives away location. Reading Bagg's book on the 2010 season, there was bit about Frandsen falling out of favor (as a backup) mainly because he was too talkative. Sabean likes the strong silent types, apparently. And torrealba talks a lot.

 

[SFGRTB]

I'm not so sure another team would top 2 years/$6MM for Lopez; or that they'd top it by enough to get him to leave. He's got it very good here -- he's managed by a guy who almost always puts him in a situation to look good and for most teams he's a LOOGY. I think 2/6 keeps him here.

RamRam makes $1.6 this year and is arb eligible...I doubt he'll get much more than $2MM seeing as he's a middle inning guy.

I think you're right and that they won't be able to afford Ross. And I agree on Belt and Brown as well. I'm hopeful for Peguero too. By 2013, we could have a lineup of:

C -- Posey
1b-- Belt
2b--Panik
SS--Craw
3b--Panda
LF--Neal
CF--Brown
RF--Peguero
SP--Tim, Chez, Cain, Bum, Wheeler
RP--Weez, Romo, Casilla, Runzler, Hembree

All from our own org. One last year of Zito (though he might be pretty tradeable by 2013); and big contracts to Timmy, Cain, Chez, and Weez, (possibly Panda in arb). The rest would be pretty cost controlled.

Bottom line: Sabean is a mad fucking genius. We are fairly stocked with positional and pitching talent in the minors, we have a crop of ready/nearly ready prospects who will be very inexpensive for a number of years, and only four or five guys making big coin.

Oh, and we have the BEST FUCKING PITCHING, 1-12, IN BASEBALL.

You know, baseball, where pitching is 80% of the game. Our future is so bright, we're gonna need shades.

Rosterbation is a beautiful thing.

My mistake on RamRam, I thought he was making at least 2 mill this year. I just disagree with Lopez, the market price for relievers has gotten insane the last couple years. Scott Downs got a 3yr/$15 deal last year. Mike Gonzalez got a 2yr/$12 2 years ago. I don't think 2/6 cuts it, especially with the way he handled the Phillies in the playoffs.

 

[filosofy29]

I think it's personality. Although, defensively, he does move around a bit too much for my tastes, i.e. he gives away location. Reading Bagg's book on the 2010 season, there was bit about Frandsen falling out of favor (as a backup) mainly because he was too talkative. Sabean likes the strong silent types, apparently. And torrealba talks a lot.

Yup, he does move around a lot. He also slaps the ground twice everytime he calls for a low pitch. Still much better than the two headed donkey show we currently have though.

 

[calsnowskier]

It did kind of hurt my brain a little bit. I think Step is saying that he doesn't want Pudge, and Yorvit isn't enough of an upgrade to justify the price, based on this year's stats which he gives more weight to.

Or, I'm completely wrong and he's a nutbag. Always tough to tell with Step.

All-in-all, I think AGS is a decent poster, but every once in a while, he falls off the bandwagon and hits his head pretty hard. This is one of those times.

I am not commenting on the ideas he is trying to put forward, but how he puts them forward. I have NO IDEA what he was trying to say there...

 

[gp956]

It did kind of hurt my brain a little bit. I think Step is saying that he doesn't want Pudge, and Yorvit isn't enough of an upgrade to justify the price, based on this year's stats which he gives more weight to.

Or, I'm completely wrong and he's a nutbag. Always tough to tell with Step.

Looks like the result of the right and left brains fighting for control of the keyboard.

 

[calsnowskier]

I think it's personality. Although, defensively, he does move around a bit too much for my tastes, i.e. he gives away location. Reading Bagg's book on the 2010 season, there was bit about Frandsen falling out of favor (as a backup) mainly because he was too talkative. Sabean likes the strong silent types, apparently. And torrealba talks a lot.

If Sabean hate the cat so much, than why did he contact Texas about him in the first place? It isnt like Texas called us trying to sell, we called them trying to buy...

 

[calsnowskier]

This GDT sure has become a sewer of thought...

Remember guys, we can create threads on this board whenever we want

 

[gp956]

Yup, he does move around a lot. He also slaps the ground twice everytime he calls for a low pitch. Still much better than the two headed donkey show we currently have though.

Oh, yeah. No doubt.

 

[gp956]

If Sabean hate the cat so much, than why did he contact Texas about him in the first place? It isnt like Texas called us trying to sell, we called them trying to buy...

What? You want seamless internal logic from me?

 

[SFGRTB]

I feel like he has been around forever. I remember him being the heir apparent to Weez a while back, but his name just kinda fell off the face of the planet a year or two ago. With Runz, Edlefsen, Stofel, and now Hembree, I am not sure where he ranks anymore.

Do you recall anything about what he throws? Something tells me he's not overpowering or else with those K/BB numbers, he'd already be here.