Garoppolo Next Year?

[Dean_Youngblood]

I agree with a lot of the recent comments on the topic of Brady... but here's an interesting take from a guy that's pretty thoughtful. Take a look at some of the questions that are put to Jack and his responses. The niners can take on Brady with a relatively small hit to the cap. Seems like Tampa may be screwed either way... so making Brady happy is something they might factor into a decision. That being said, all of this would need to come together pretty quickly... not "six months from now" as Brady alluded to. Too many things will be set in stone by then cap-wise.

 

[Dean_Youngblood]

I agree with a lot of the recent comments on the topic of Brady... but here's an interesting take from a guy that's pretty thoughtful. Take a look at some of the questions that are put to Jack and his responses. The niners can take on Brady with a relatively small hit to the cap. Seems like Tampa may be screwed either way... so making Brady happy is something they might factor into a decision. That being said, all of this would need to come together pretty quickly... not "six months from now" as Brady alluded to. Too many things will be set in stone by then cap-wise.

The FO might chase this for a few weeks... but if a deal isn't done by then, I think they move forward with Lance as planned and try to get a 3rd/player from the Steelers.

 

[deep9er]

This is the other issue i have with pursuing other 'big name' QBs.......one big reason we made the mega-deal is having your QB with a low cap hit. If we delay Lance another season, then we'll only have 3 seasons left on his rookie deal. One of those 3 seasons, he stills needs to go through his "growing pains", it might as well be now. Similar to JG (not same), the TEAM has enough core talent to get "W's" while Lance grows in 3-4 games.

Had Lance been downright horrible in his 2 starts plus half a game, i could see giving him another year on the bench. However, that was not the case, he showed enough positives to indicate he can begin now. Yes, he still needs more game reps to improve his intangibles, but he'll need it whether now or a year later.

 

[Dean_Youngblood]

This is the other issue i have with pursuing other 'big name' QBs.......one big reason we made the mega-deal is having your QB with a low cap hit. If we delay Lance another season, then we'll only have 3 seasons left on his rookie deal. One of those 3 seasons, he stills needs to go through his "growing pains", it might as well be now. Similar to JG (not same), the TEAM has enough core talent to get "W's" while Lance grows in 3-4 games.

Had Lance been downright horrible in his 2 starts plus half a game, i could see giving him another year on the bench. However, that was not the case, he showed enough positives to indicate he can begin now. Yes, he still needs more game reps to improve his intangibles, but he'll need it whether now or a year later.

Other than two (Brady and Rodgers), I totally agree. We will need a vet to back up Lance, so we're gonna spend $8-$10M there no matter what. If you can somehow make it work, you have to at least explore it.

To your larger point, anyone looking for silver linings should go back and watch Lance in the second half of that Houston game. There is soooo much to be positive about. His pocket presence is actually pretty damn good and once he breaks the pocket, he still looks downfield. And he's confident enough to make the tougher throws. I get that it's Houston, but watching the growth in that game was really encouraging. Imagine a full offseason with starter reps and more game experience. Hard not to think he won't be at least as effective as JG.

 

[deep9er]

Other than two (Brady and Rodgers), I totally agree. We will need a vet to back up Lance, so we're gonna spend $8-$10M there no matter what. If you can somehow make it work, you have to at least explore it.

To your larger point, anyone looking for silver linings should go back and watch Lance in the second half of that Houston game. There is soooo much to be positive about. His pocket presence is actually pretty damn good and once he breaks the pocket, he still looks downfield. And he's confident enough to make the tougher throws. I get that it's Houston, but watching the growth in that game was really encouraging. Imagine a full offseason with starter reps and more game experience. Hard not to think he won't be at least as effective as JG.

Yes, i think after 3-4 games he'll be as effective as JG. Lance will do it in different ways but he'll add enough to the offense as JG did.

Lance already showed what he can do throwing to all parts of the field, he just needs more accuracy. I wouldn't want to call too many QB runs, but he can escape the pocket and extend plays whether running or throwing. These extensions are still helping the offense.

 

[deep9er]

Kittle on Trey Lance:

Kittle feels Garoppolo had a lot to teach Lance, and there are areas of Garoppolo's game that the rookie quarterback should incorporate into his own if he hopes to take his level of play to the next level.

"He just has to learn our offense," Kittle shared. "And he has to learn how to make the right reads to get the ball out quick because that's what Jimmy's very good at, is getting the ball out quick. I'm looking forward to Trey's progress.


This makes perfect sense and comes with more game reps. Lance has a good head start learning the offense and experiencing "NFL game speed".

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Montana came out and said that the Niners should keep Jimmy b/c Lance isn't ready. He said that isn't just his opinion but that of the Niner players he talked to. That Jimmy was "good enough to get you there" and he should start until Trey is better than he is.

To me, that sounds like a starter that's still salty over having lost his job to the chosen heir despite being the better QB.

I'm not as optimistic about Lance's first year as @deep9er is. I think Lance will show us flashes, but I expect him to struggle most of the year with making reads/decisions quickly enough as his passes were often late/behind, and it looked like he'd never heard of a dump-off receiver. He'll grow through the year, and we'll see some quarters and halves where he shows us what he could be, but I don't think we'll see it often enough to win more games than we did this year. B/c of that, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Niners missed the 2022 playoffs.

 

[deep9er]

Montana came out and said that the Niners should keep Jimmy b/c Lance isn't ready. He said that isn't just his opinion but that of the Niner players he talked to. That Jimmy was "good enough to get you there" and he should start until Trey is better than he is.

To me, that sounds like a starter that's still salty over having lost his job to the chosen heir despite being the better QB.

I'm not as optimistic about Lance's first year as @deep9er is. I think Lance will show us flashes, but I expect him to struggle most of the year with making reads/decisions quickly enough as his passes were often late/behind, and it looked like he'd never heard of a dump-off receiver. He'll grow through the year, and we'll see some quarters and halves where he shows us what he could be, but I don't think we'll see it often enough to win more games than we did this year. B/c of that, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Niners missed the 2022 playoffs.

I don't see how we can keep JG on the books AND surround him with enough good players? Even with his cap savings, we're going to restructure existing contracts to fill the roster, ie "mortage the future".

The overall 2022 team won't be as good as this year because we simply can't retain all of our 20-something free agents. We don't have the cap to sign higher FA's from other teams either. We may or may not attain the same 10-7 record in 2022 but if not, it doesn't all fall on Trey Lance.

Bottom line is we had to move away from JG and in doing so there will be a trough some time or another. This is the best time for it because 30 something players who are under contract, are GOOD players. Even if i'm wrong about 3-4 games in, we had to move away from JG.

Lance will be an "All-Pro" after 3-4 games, but i feel at that point the positives will outweigh the 'growing pains'. Yes, to be an elite NFL QB, he'll need more than one season.

 

[Dean_Youngblood]

Montana came out and said that the Niners should keep Jimmy b/c Lance isn't ready. He said that isn't just his opinion but that of the Niner players he talked to. That Jimmy was "good enough to get you there" and he should start until Trey is better than he is.

To me, that sounds like a starter that's still salty over having lost his job to the chosen heir despite being the better QB.

I'm not as optimistic about Lance's first year as @deep9er is. I think Lance will show us flashes, but I expect him to struggle most of the year with making reads/decisions quickly enough as his passes were often late/behind, and it looked like he'd never heard of a dump-off receiver. He'll grow through the year, and we'll see some quarters and halves where he shows us what he could be, but I don't think we'll see it often enough to win more games than we did this year. B/c of that, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Niners missed the 2022 playoffs.

It's funny... because Steve Young came out and said the exact opposite, lol. Given the context of their career arcs, I'd say it's just more grist for the mill.

My take is that it doesn't really matter who anyone thinks is "ready". The team has made their bed. Every day that you don't put Lance out there is a day that he's not developing at game-speed. Best to find out what you've got there, because you've given up a lot to get him. And the cap... things look a whole lot better if you believe the team can compete as good as they did with JG now that Lance is running the show.

 

[Dean_Youngblood]

 

[deep9er]

Lance will be an "All-Pro" after 3-4 games, but i feel at that point the positives will outweigh the 'growing pains'. Yes, to be an elite NFL QB, he'll need more than one season.

Oops, i meant to say "won't be an All-Pro after 3-4 games........."

 

[deep9er]

It's funny... because Steve Young came out and said the exact opposite, lol. Given the context of their career arcs, I'd say it's just more grist for the mill.

My take is that it doesn't really matter who anyone thinks is "ready". The team has made their bed. Every day that you don't put Lance out there is a day that he's not developing at game-speed. Best to find out what you've got there, because you've given up a lot to get him. And the cap... things look a whole lot better if you believe the team can compete as good as they did with JG now that Lance is running the show.

No disrespect Joe, but i agree with Grant Cohn. Why Joe Montana Thinks Trey Lance Isn’t Ready

I also agree with your post, the decision was made over a year ago and Lance didn't show anything horrible. He did have rookie things as is expected of every rookie QB, but there wasn't anything indicating he's a bust.

 

[Dean_Youngblood]

No disrespect Joe, but i agree with Grant Cohn. Why Joe Montana Thinks Trey Lance Isn’t Ready

I also agree with your post, the decision was made over a year ago and Lance didn't show anything horrible. He did have rookie things as is expected of every rookie QB, but there wasn't anything indicating he's a bust.

Grant cracks me up sometimes... he seemed personally insulted by Joe's comments, lol. I totally agree with his take here too.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

I don't see how we can keep JG on the books AND surround him with enough good players? Even with his cap savings, we're going to restructure existing contracts to fill the roster, ie "mortage the future".

Don't get me wrong--imo, we aren't keeping Jimmy, nor should we.

 

[deep9er]

Don't get me wrong--imo, we aren't keeping Jimmy, nor should we.

Yes, i got yah.

What we disagree on - and its ok to disagree - the amount of cap we'll need to restock this team? Previously, i felt JG's cap savings would address most of it but now realize we'll need much more than his $24M or so. Your view is re-stocking this team won't take much and thats fine, all we can do is wait and see the amount of restructuring?

I foresee 3-4 restructured contract unless we trade another big one away, for example Armstead. My reasoning is that we aren't going to restock this roster with rookies and other less than quality players. We have a solid nucleus (foundation) and the window is now, we can't rely on rookies and players like Brunskill, Compton, and even Ambry Thomas and Hufanga.

Again, not a problem to disagree, we'll just see what happens?

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Yes, i got yah.

What we disagree on - and its ok to disagree - the amount of cap we'll need to restock this team? Previously, i felt JG's cap savings would address most of it but now realize we'll need much more than his $24M or so. Your view is re-stocking this team won't take much and thats fine, all we can do is wait and see the amount of restructuring?

I foresee 3-4 restructured contract unless we trade another big one away, for example Armstead. My reasoning is that we aren't going to restock this roster with rookies and other less than quality players. We have a solid nucleus (foundation) and the window is now, we can't rely on rookies and players like Brunskill, Compton, and even Ambry Thomas and Hufanga.

Again, not a problem to disagree, we'll just see what happens?

Yea, we disagree on how well/soon Trey will do and what we'll do regarding the cap. I expect Trey to struggle on and off most of the year, not just 3 or 4 games, and I don't think we'll just use the credit card and resign everyone and upgrade in FA, as I expect us to let at least a couple of our starting FAs leave.

For reference, I remember thinking that we made a mistake letting Edge Kerry Hyder (8+ sacks) leave for Seattle after the 2020 season (for a very reasonable contract). He didn't play anywhere close to the deal he got there and could easily be a seahawk cap casualty in a few weeks (he'd make a nice near-minimum resigning for us). That's why I'm not all that worried about guys like Key and Willis leaving.

As for Tartt, I think the FO has been wanting to make a change there for a while, and it's basically the same at RT where we saw the bottom-of-the-roster-signing of Compton be a significant upgrade over McGlinchey. While Compton played well at RT for us, I don't expect him to command all that much on the open market bc of his career history--i think he'll be viewed as a system/timing fit that won't last or translate (though I could see Miami maybe paying more than us for him, same with Tomlinson). Hell, if we resign Compton, I could see us trade McGlinchey before the season starts just to rid us of his 5th year cap # (assuming any other team wants him). At a place like RG, it's gonna be a free for all, with McGlinchey, a FA , and our recent rookies all going at it.

On a related note, I keep seeing talk that trade talks involving Jimmy are heating up with the super bowl over and the offseason less than a month away. It's become apparent that the Packers are not moving Rodgers, that Wilson is going nowhere, and Carr is staying in Vegas. That means Watson and Jimmy are the most valuable QBs out there, and THAT is why the Colts are looking to move Wentz all of sudden--like Jimmy, his ceiling isn't seen often enough to keep him, he's on a playoff-ready team, and he's not worth what he'll cost to keep, and he'll be valuable on the QB trade market.

 

[deep9er]

Yea, we disagree on how well/soon Trey will do and what we'll do regarding the cap. I expect Trey to struggle on and off most of the year, not just 3 or 4 games, and I don't think we'll just use the credit card and resign everyone and upgrade in FA, as I expect us to let at least a couple of our starting FAs leave.

For reference, I remember thinking that we made a mistake letting Edge Kerry Hyder (8+ sacks) leave for Seattle after the 2020 season (for a very reasonable contract). He didn't play anywhere close to the deal he got there and could easily be a seahawk cap casualty in a few weeks (he'd make a nice near-minimum resigning for us). That's why I'm not all that worried about guys like Key and Willis leaving.

As for Tartt, I think the FO has been wanting to make a change there for a while, and it's basically the same at RT where we saw the bottom-of-the-roster-signing of Compton be a significant upgrade over McGlinchey. While Compton played well at RT for us, I don't expect him to command all that much on the open market bc of his career history--i think he'll be viewed as a system/timing fit that won't last or translate (though I could see Miami maybe paying more than us for him, same with Tomlinson). Hell, if we resign Compton, I could see us trade McGlinchey before the season starts just to rid us of his 5th year cap # (assuming any other team wants him). At a place like RG, it's gonna be a free for all, with McGlinchey, a FA , and our recent rookies all going at it.

On a related note, I keep seeing talk that trade talks involving Jimmy are heating up with the super bowl over and the offseason less than a month away. It's become apparent that the Packers are not moving Rodgers, that Wilson is going nowhere, and Carr is staying in Vegas. That means Watson and Jimmy are the most valuable QBs out there, and THAT is why the Colts are looking to move Wentz all of sudden--like Jimmy, his ceiling isn't seen often enough to keep him, he's on a playoff-ready team, and he's not worth what he'll cost to keep, and he'll be valuable on the QB trade market.

Oh yeah, also on how fast Trey Lance exits "struggle" mode? Granted, there is a gray area as to what is 'struggle' and i'm not saying he's going to be "All-Pro" after 3-4 games. Am saying he'll contribute to winning as opposed to needing the team to win despite of him.

How many contracts they need to restructure, will be the tell on use of the "credit card"? We'll just see what happens as they start to re-sign our better FA's, how many do they re-sign and how many contracts are restructured? I know we're not going to resign all of our FA's, we just can't even if we wanted to. Yes, they may have to trade a big contract (example McGlinchey) in order to gain cap space, but this would be another indicator that JG's saving isn't enough. Thats how this started, i didn't realize just how much cap space we'll need and JG's exit isn't enough.

 

[deep9er]

Below is only a projection by PFF, but it gives us an idea of how much it takes to re-fill the roster. If you add the annual amounts below, i believe it comes out $37M for this season, easily more than the $27M cap savings from JG. That was my point..... earlier i had thought JG was enough but its not nearly enough.

This doesn't even include extensions for Deebo and Bosa.


The San Francisco 49ers have several players scheduled to hit free agency. Here's a look at the contracts projected for those within Pro Football Focus' ranking and some notes based on the analytics site's analysis.

Laken Tomlinson, guard: Three years, $27 million ($9M per year, $16.5 million total guaranteed)
Rank: 26

Pro Football Focus views Tomlinson among the league's best guards. He is a good run blocker and strong pass rusher. Tomlinson recorded a run-block grade of 75.3 in 2021 and 80.9 in 2020. His overall grades of 73.6 in 2021 and 78.8 in 2020 are the best of his career.

D.J. Jones, defensive tackle: Three years, $26.25 million ($8.75M per year), $15.5 million total guaranteed
Rank: 77

Often considered the most undervalued player on the 49ers defense, the defensive lineman could see a nice payday this offseason. His overall grade of 73.7 in 2021 was a career-high, as was his 66.6 pass-rushing grade. However, Pro Football Focus notes that Jones won't get a ton of value as a pass rusher but is stout against the run.

K'Waun Williams, cornerback: One year, $2.5 million, $2 million total guaranteed
Rank: 116

If the projection is accurate, Williams could be one of the easier players for the 49ers to bring back in 2022. While still an effective slot cornerback, he will be 31 years old at the start of the season. That could impact his value.

Jason Verrett, cornerback: One year, $3 million, $1.25 million total guaranteed
Rank: 143

Verrett is an outstanding cornerback. He just can't remain healthy. The veteran defender had only two seasons in his eight-year career where he didn't land on injured reserve. Verrett suffered a torn ACL in San Francisco's Week 1 contest against the Detroit Lions this past season.

Maurice Hurst, defensive tackle: One year, $1.5 million
Rank: 157

Another likely inexpensive option for the 49ers, Pro Football Focus views Hurst as an efficient down-to-down pass rusher. However, he was inactive for the last 14 games of the 2021 season due to a calf injury.

Arden Key, defensive end: Two years, $12.5 million ($6.25M per year), $6.25 million total guaranteed
Rank: 159

Finally able to escape what he feels was a bad situation with the Raiders, Key had his best season, recording a career-best 68.1 overall grade and eclipsing all previous marks with a 75.4 pass-rushing grade. He had a career-high 6.5 sacks, five tackles for a loss, and 17 quarterback hits. The analytics site sees Key as an intriguing option as a rotational pass rusher.

Jaquiski Tartt, safety: Two years, $5 million ($2.5M per year), $3.25 million total guaranteed
Rank: 164

Pro Football Focus doesn't feel Tartt would earn much with another team. Remaining with San Francisco may be his best offseason play. Tartt can help defend against explosive plays but benefits from a strong pass rush and linebacker Fred Warner underneath.

Tom Compton, tackle: One year, $1.75 million fully guaranteed
Rank: 186

Compton will be 33 years old at the start of the season but has been a healthy and reliable offensive lineman. His 79.9 overall grade in 2021 was a career-high, as was his run-blocking grade of 89.5. He was graded as the 49ers' best offensive lineman not named Trent Williams.

Raheem Mostert, running back: One year, $1.75 million, $1.25 million total guaranteed
Rank: 187

If Mostert proves healthy after suffering a season-ending knee injury in Week 1, he could be a valuable running back to some NFL team. That assumes Mostert hasn't lost his impressive burst.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

The odds out there still have Washington and Pittsburgh as the most likely trading partners for Jimmy.

 

[Dean_Youngblood]

I'm feeling like we can add Denver to the list since it's sounding more and more like Wilson/Rodgers are staying put. Who knows when the Watson drama will clear up. Changing my tune on Washington the more I think about it. I don't believe any of the shite from Rappaport or Schefter about Jimmy staying or the team not being sold on Lance... those two access journalists are just carrying water for the FO, trying to drive up his value in the press. We may be pleasantly surprised when it's all said and done. Other than the surgery news, the market is lining up about as favorable as you could hope.