Future HOFers?

[gvsulaker82]

Well, Cano's obviously the class there but Zimmerman and HanRam are at least in the borderline (as much as an 9 year guy can be). I also like McCann quite a bit, surprised his WAR is that low. I really wonder if WAR is going to have a correction for catchers some time. Fielder could get to 500 HR, I suppose, and (absent a PED thing) that could get him in.

Cano maybe, i cant see anyone else on that list even coming close.

 

[navamind]

Really? Cabrera for sure and utley maybe. But werth, bay, dejesus, ellis, morneau, peralta??? Why are they in the discussion at all....

He never said they were serious HOF candidates. He just posted the WAR leaders among players that have played for a certain amount of seasons.

 

[navamind]

out of all the 10 and 11 year players. the only "lock" for the HOF is Cabrera. Utley would be if he could stay healthy, but he only has 4 years where he played for than 133 games, so that is really going to hurt him, especially if he continues to put up mediocre numbers going forward.

David Wright is on his way, but he needs to stay healthy too, which he has had problem doing the last couple years.

Joe Mauer is on his way too -- especially if he continues to catch. Winning 3 batting titles, an MVP, gold gloves, etc. early on helps him out tremendously. As long as he doesn't fall off the face of the earth -- he should get in.

The rest on the lists though -- no chance, with the exception of Matt Holliday, as long as he puts up another 5 or 6 years like he has been.

.284/.348/.465 and 125 OPS+ from 2B isn't mediocre. At all.

 

[StanMarsh51]

.284/.348/.465 and 125 OPS+ from 2B isn't mediocre. At all.

Yea, he was certainly good offensively this past year, considering he was 3rd in OPS and 4th in HR among all MLB 2B. He also hit very well with RISP (.330 AVG, .930 OPS), but he didn't get the RBI opportunities to knock in more runs (he was a distant 133rd in runners on base this year)

 

[DragonfromTO]

The only player named in this thread who is a lock HOF'er right now IMO is Miguel Cabrera.

Chase Utley is close, and David Wright and Joe Mauer are on their way.

Everyone else is either a ways off or not even close.

Is that surprising? All of these guys just barely have enough seasons to even be eligible (some of them not even). There haven't been that many players that had the resumé to get in after only 10 seasons. I'm not even sure I'd put Cabrera in, it would probably depend a little on what ended his career.

 

[da55bums]

Is that surprising? All of these guys just barely have enough seasons to even be eligible (some of them not even). There haven't been that many players that had the resumé to get in after only 10 seasons. I'm not even sure I'd put Cabrera in, it would probably depend a little on what ended his career.

oh, no, he diddant.....and here comes the Tigers fans in full effect...TrustMeIKnow....Never, Never feed them after midnight, Never let them get wet....and Never Ever talk like that about Cabrera.

Cabrera should make the HOF unless he pulls a Dale Murphy.

 

[Cobiemonster]

If Chase Utley has at least 2-3 more healthy seasons and can produce, he should be in the HOF - one of the best 2B's of his time

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

.284/.348/.465 and 125 OPS+ from 2B isn't mediocre. At all.

He did rediscover his stroke this year. The 2 prior years, he hit in the .250 range though. Couple that with the fact -- over the last 4 years, he has missed 216 games with injuries and it really hurts his cause.

His 5 year stretch from 2005-2009 could very well get him in the HOF. If he had been able to stay healthy -- he would have been a 1st ballot HOF I think.

 

[DragonfromTO]

oh, no, he diddant.....and here comes the Tigers fans in full effect...TrustMeIKnow....Never, Never feed them after midnight, Never let them get wet....and Never Ever talk like that about Cabrera.

Cabrera should make the HOF unless he pulls a Dale Murphy.

I'm talking about a scenario where these guys fall off the face of the earth and/or don't play another game though, that's worse than what Dale Murphy did.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

There haven't been that many players that had the resumé to get in after only 10 seasons. I'm not even sure I'd put Cabrera in, it would probably depend a little on what ended his career.

Here is where Cabrera stacks up against two of the best RH hitters in the history of baseball thru 10 seasons (average per season)

Cabrera BA .321 HR 36 RBI 124 OBP .399 SLG .569 OPS+ 156
Aaron BA .319 HR 36 RBI 119 OBP .375 SLG .575 OPS+ 157
Mays BA .313 HR 38 RBI 112 OBP .388 SLG .582 OPS+ 160

When you add in that Cabrera is the 1st RH hitter to win back to back to back Batting Titles since Honus Wagner, to go along with the first triple Crown winner since Carl Yazstremski and is a virtual lock to win back to back MVPs, and has 5 other seasons where he finished in the top 5 for MVP voting, he could hang up his cleats today and would be a 1st ballot HOFer.

Seeing though, as he is only 30 years old and is in the middle of his prime years as a baseball player -- He still has, at least, 3 or 4 years, where he would put up video game type numbers, before I think you see his power numbers tail off. I think he will always hit at or around .300, because he isn't a guy who swings for HRs and hits the ball to all fields.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

oh, no, he diddant.....and here comes the Tigers fans in full effect...TrustMeIKnow....Never, Never feed them after midnight, Never let them get wet....and Never Ever talk like that about Cabrera.

Cabrera should make the HOF unless he pulls a Dale Murphy.

I really need to figure out how to block someone -- it is awfully hard to type, when I have dabums swinging from my nutsack. I appreciate the man crush you have on me dabums, but I don't swing that way.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Here is where Cabrera stacks up against two of the best RH hitters in the history of baseball thru 10 seasons (average per season)

Cabrera BA .321 HR 36 RBI 124 OBP .399 SLG .569 OPS+ 156
Aaron BA .319 HR 36 RBI 119 OBP .375 SLG .575 OPS+ 157
Mays BA .313 HR 38 RBI 112 OBP .388 SLG .582 OPS+ 160

When you add in that Cabrera is the 1st RH hitter to win back to back to back Batting Titles since Honus Wagner, to go along with the first triple Crown winner since Carl Yazstremski and is a virtual lock to win back to back MVPs, and has 5 other seasons where he finished in the top 5 for MVP voting, he could hang up his cleats today and would be a 1st ballot HOFer.

Seeing though, as he is only 30 years old and is in the middle of his prime years as a baseball player -- He still has, at least, 3 or 4 years, where he would put up video game type numbers, before I think you see his power numbers tail off. I think he will always hit at or around .300, because he isn't a guy who swings for HRs and hits the ball to all fields.

Like I said, I think it would depend on how/why he hung up his cleats. Are you telling me that if he came out next spring, hit .150 for half a season and then called it quits cause he simply couldn't do it anymore you'd vote him in on the first ballot? I'm not sure that I would.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Here is where Cabrera stacks up against two of the best RH hitters in the history of baseball thru 10 seasons (average per season)

Cabrera BA .321 HR 36 RBI 124 OBP .399 SLG .569 OPS+ 156
Aaron BA .319 HR 36 RBI 119 OBP .375 SLG .575 OPS+ 157
Mays BA .313 HR 38 RBI 112 OBP .388 SLG .582 OPS+ 160

When you add in that Cabrera is the 1st RH hitter to win back to back to back Batting Titles since Honus Wagner, to go along with the first triple Crown winner since Carl Yazstremski and is a virtual lock to win back to back MVPs, and has 5 other seasons where he finished in the top 5 for MVP voting, he could hang up his cleats today and would be a 1st ballot HOFer.

Seeing though, as he is only 30 years old and is in the middle of his prime years as a baseball player -- He still has, at least, 3 or 4 years, where he would put up video game type numbers, before I think you see his power numbers tail off. I think he will always hit at or around .300, because he isn't a guy who swings for HRs and hits the ball to all fields.

As another comparison Jeff Bagwell had a 157 OPS+ at the end of 11 seasons. He put in 3 more very good years on top of this and he wasn't a first ballot HoFer and still isn't in. I would probably vote for Cabrera even if he never did anything else on a baseball field for the rest of his life but I don't think it's as much of a slam dunk as some are making it out to be, and I'm far from convinced that the voters would think so.

 

[gvsulaker82]

He never said they were serious HOF candidates. He just posted the WAR leaders among players that have played for a certain amount of seasons.

Ah, I didnt see that. I thought he was piggybacking the original poster with his content, thanks.

 

[navamind]

He did rediscover his stroke this year. The 2 prior years, he hit in the .250 range though. Couple that with the fact -- over the last 4 years, he has missed 216 games with injuries and it really hurts his cause.

His 5 year stretch from 2005-2009 could very well get him in the HOF. If he had been able to stay healthy -- he would have been a 1st ballot HOF I think.

Utley also had a .353 OBP, .426 SLG%, and 111 OPS+ in 2011-12. Those stats still make him one of the best offensive 2nd basemen in the league.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Like I said, I think it would depend on how/why he hung up his cleats. Are you telling me that if he came out next spring, hit .150 for half a season and then called it quits cause he simply couldn't do it anymore you'd vote him in on the first ballot? I'm not sure that I would.

You are talking about a guy who is coming off back to back to back Batting Titles. Is almost a lock to win back to back MVP's and is only 30 years old.

What you are saying isn't even hypothetical -- it is unrealistic, as it has never happened to a player of Cabrera's caliber. At 30 years old -- he already has 365 homeruns and 1260 rbis (378/1297 if you include the postseason) and 1995 hits (2050 if you included the postseason).

It isn't as if Cabrera is injury prone or is going to be stuck playing the field. He has missed 45 games total in his 10 full seasons and most of them were days he was rested by the manager. It also isn't as if Cabrera relies on pulling the ball or hitting home runs. He uses the entire.

I think his home runs will taper off, especially with his home games being at Comerica. I just don't see his BA dropping that much, as the guy is best pure hitter I've ever witnessed in person.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Utley also had a .353 OBP, .426 SLG%, and 111 OPS+ in 2011-12. Those stats still make him one of the best offensive 2nd basemen in the league.

That is all great, but if you have missed 1 1/2 years worth of games in the past 4 years. Your stats don't mean too much.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

As another comparison Jeff Bagwell had a 157 OPS+ at the end of 11 seasons. He put in 3 more very good years on top of this and he wasn't a first ballot HoFer and still isn't in. I would probably vote for Cabrera even if he never did anything else on a baseball field for the rest of his life but I don't think it's as much of a slam dunk as some are making it out to be, and I'm far from convinced that the voters would think so.

I actually really like Bagwell, but unfortunately for him, he played in an era where steroids were the norm and you are basically guilty until proven innocent. If he didn't play in that era, he would be a 1st ballot HOFer without a doubt, IMO.

The reason I think Cabrera is a slam dunk is the personal accolades he has had over the years. He became the 1st right handed hitter to win 3 straight batting titles since Honus Wagner in 1920-1925. He became the 1st player since Carl Yazstremski 45 years ago to win the Triple Crown. On top of the batting titles, he has won 2 home runs titles and 2 rbi titles.

Couple that with the fact he will be have won back to back MVP's this year and finished in the top 5 five other times already -- I think his place is secure in the HOF.

 

[navamind]

That is all great, but if you have missed 1 1/2 years worth of games in the past 4 years. Your stats don't mean too much.

I never said they meant much in regards to his HOF case. All I'm saying is he was still one of the better offensive 2B despite having a low BA.

And Utley's 2010 season was still very good. He still had enough PA to qualify. And he batted .275/.387/.445 (123 OPS+) and provided excellent defense (+17 total zone runs, 13.0 UZR/150). Even with him missing a good portion of the season, both WAR stats had him over 5.0. BB-Ref has him pegged at 5.8, 8th in the NL. Fangraphs has him at 5.1, 12th in the NL.

 

[DragonfromTO]

You are talking about a guy who is coming off back to back to back Batting Titles. Is almost a lock to win back to back MVP's and is only 30 years old.

What you are saying isn't even hypothetical -- it is unrealistic, as it has never happened to a player of Cabrera's caliber. At 30 years old -- he already has 365 homeruns and 1260 rbis (378/1297 if you include the postseason) and 1995 hits (2050 if you included the postseason).

It isn't as if Cabrera is injury prone or is going to be stuck playing the field. He has missed 45 games total in his 10 full seasons and most of them were days he was rested by the manager. It also isn't as if Cabrera relies on pulling the ball or hitting home runs. He uses the entire.

I think his home runs will taper off, especially with his home games being at Comerica. I just don't see his BA dropping that much, as the guy is best pure hitter I've ever witnessed in person.

Whether it is realistic or not, this is basically the scenario that is being posed when someone says he is "a lock right now" or "he could hang up his cleats today and would be a first ballot HoFer". The exercise wasn't forecasting the future, it was evaluating his candidacy at this moment in time. Guys like Benny Kauff and Charlie Keller looked like future HoFers too, but they never got there.