Fantasy options to avoid in the first 5 rounds

[SteelersPride]

10 fantasy options to avoid in the draft's first 5 rounds | Fantasy Analysis | Pro Football Focus

 

[averagejoe]

Nice read.
Was sad to see Ertz on there from my Suicide team. As well as Montgomery just as a fan.

Just looking at our suicide draft, I'd throw out Drake in MIA as a guy to avoid. And maybe I'm just not seeing the hype but Godwin is another guy.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Gurley and the QB's I agree with.

Happy to take Hopkins, Chubb, Michel.

Hesitant with Williams, Ertz and Kupp.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

A little too much rookie hype for the backups in KC and NWE to threaten the workload of the starters.

Totally understand the hesitation on Montgomery, but I like bears to get better overall. Might hurt them from fantasy perspective, but more leads should equate to more touches for DMont and Davis, and less touches for Cohen/less scrambles for Trubs

 

[SmokingMonkey]

By starters in KC and NWE I mean Damien + Hyde and Michel + White

 

[TREFF]

All pretty valid reasons, I especially agree with the Damien Williams selection. And while I don't think theres inherently any reason to assume a 6th rd rookie or an UNDFA are gonna come in and take the job or even eat away a significant chunk, neither Williams nor Hyde are "safe" guys who can just show up and be the guy. They're both replaceable level talents, so the possibility definitely exists

 

[leftypower]

I think you can add ALL SF backs to the list. ...

 

[TREFF]

I think you can add ALL SF backs to the list. ...

is anyone crazy enough to take any of em in the first five rounds?

Coleman went in the seventh in our suicide,,granted different format and his injury history plays a part, but also granted..we're virtually all RB hoarders

 

[Stomp]

FP rankings

2 Zeke possible looming suspension

10 James Conner 3rd(4th?) most talented back in the Steelers backfield if you draft him you 100% need to draft Samuels as a cuff a couple rounds ahead of his ADP

12/36/37/43 Anyone on the Rams, domino effect from Gurley uncertainty and Kupp will likely be stealing targets from Woods and Cooks

32 Sony Michel Do not trust BB

None of the rookie runningbacks are top 60 yet, but by the time draft season is here i'm sure they'll be being over drafted(i'll probably be guilty of this at some point.

 

[SteelersPride]

FP rankings

2 Zeke possible looming suspension

10 James Conner 3rd(4th?) most talented back in the Steelers backfield if you draft him you 100% need to draft Samuels as a cuff a couple rounds ahead of his ADP

12/36/37/43 Anyone on the Rams, domino effect from Gurley uncertainty and Kupp will likely be stealing targets from Woods and Cooks

32 Sony Michel Do not trust BB

None of the rookie runningbacks are top 60 yet, but by the time draft season is here i'm sure they'll be being over drafted(i'll probably be guilty of this at some point.

jacobs being the bell cow likely will boosy him

 

[TREFF]

jacobs being the bell cow likely will boosy him

If by Bellcow youre hoping for usage like Zeke, Barkley, Bell, DJ, ..etc..you'll be sorely mistaken. Yes Gruden does like to pound the rock..more or less, yes he favors one back over another, but he's ALWAYS had a two back system, historically, roughly 2 to 1 splits.
98, Kaufman and Harvey Williams (how the EFF does anyone justify Harvey Williams touching the ball over Kaufman is beyond me)
'99 Wheatley/Kaufman, again, roughly 2-1
'00 Wheatley Kaufman, same
'01 Garner/Wheatley, little closer to 3-1 here, mainly due to a Wheatley injury
Tampa-
'02 Pittman/Alstott not even 2-1
'03 Pittman/T. Jones, nearly an even split
'04 Pittman/Alstott, 3-1
'05 Caddy Williams..Caddy dominated while Pittman faded into oblivion
'06 Caddy/Alstott , 3-1
'07 Earnest Graham/Pittman/Caddy...injury riddled everywhere
'08 the ancient Warrick Dunn returns to lead a three back committee, with Graham and Caddy..near split between Dunn and Graham
Then the hodgepodge of crap last year..yes Lynch was "the guy", but Richard, Martin and Washington all got series, even before the beast went down.

The point being..Doug Martin is going to get about half as many touches as Jacobs. If theres 25 carries in a game to give, Martin is getting 6-10 of em, and Richard is fairly well entrenched as the pass pro/receiving specialist. Jacobs would truly have to perform like the second coming of Kamara to break that trend and force the issue. Yes he's likely to lead the team in RB touches, comfortably even, but most likely, as the larger share of a committee, not a " bell cow". Just Grudens history

 

[leftypower]

is anyone crazy enough to take any of em in the first five rounds?
Coleman went in the seventh in our suicide,,granted different format and his injury history plays a part, but also granted..we're virtually all RB hoarders

Is there anyone crazy enough - yes, apparently so - FP has him at an ADP of 67, that would be roughly the 5.6 spot in a 12 team league. ...

 

[averagejoe]

Is there anyone crazy enough - yes, apparently so - FP has him at an ADP of 67, that would be roughly the 5.6 spot in a 12 team league. ...

Not sure how much salary factors into personnel decisions?
Ya figure, hey, they gave this guy more money, so logic dictates they'd use the guy more?

Based on the cap hit (millions) the pecking order is McKinnon ($5.7) > Coleman ($3.6) > Mostert ($1.9) > Breida ($0.6)

NFL Rankings

 

[TREFF]

Is there anyone crazy enough - yes, apparently so - FP has him at an ADP of 67, that would be roughly the 5.6 spot in a 12 team league. ...

I'm glad we've got more sense than that

 

[SteelersPride]

If by Bellcow youre hoping for usage like Zeke, Barkley, Bell, DJ, ..etc..you'll be sorely mistaken. Yes Gruden does like to pound the rock..more or less, yes he favors one back over another, but he's ALWAYS had a two back system, historically, roughly 2 to 1 splits.
98, Kaufman and Harvey Williams (how the EFF does anyone justify Harvey Williams touching the ball over Kaufman is beyond me)
'99 Wheatley/Kaufman, again, roughly 2-1
'00 Wheatley Kaufman, same
'01 Garner/Wheatley, little closer to 3-1 here, mainly due to a Wheatley injury
Tampa-
'02 Pittman/Alstott not even 2-1
'03 Pittman/T. Jones, nearly an even split
'04 Pittman/Alstott, 3-1
'05 Caddy Williams..Caddy dominated while Pittman faded into oblivion
'06 Caddy/Alstott , 3-1
'07 Earnest Graham/Pittman/Caddy...injury riddled everywhere
'08 the ancient Warrick Dunn returns to lead a three back committee, with Graham and Caddy..near split between Dunn and Graham
Then the hodgepodge of crap last year..yes Lynch was "the guy", but Richard, Martin and Washington all got series, even before the beast went down.

The point being..Doug Martin is going to get about half as many touches as Jacobs. If theres 25 carries in a game to give, Martin is getting 6-10 of em, and Richard is fairly well entrenched as the pass pro/receiving specialist. Jacobs would truly have to perform like the second coming of Kamara to break that trend and force the issue. Yes he's likely to lead the team in RB touches, comfortably even, but most likely, as the larger share of a committee, not a " bell cow". Just Grudens history

thanks for the info, i actually agree with you. But curious why this info is believable. BUt when it comes to Tomlins lengthy history of using a bellcow, and conner. no one is on board. They think a converted tight end who had 20 carries in a game once in all of college and the pros is gonna split? i dont get that.

 

[SteelersPride]

Is there anyone crazy enough - yes, apparently so - FP has him at an ADP of 67, that would be roughly the 5.6 spot in a 12 team league. ...

RB's are at a premium , we all know that, if we think we can get one whose gonna get 15 carries a game and 2-3 catches. your gonna take him.

Jacobs has the look of that guy

Coleman sucked when given the chance, but in that system, and mckinnon still hurt, breida hurt, hes got the lead for now, and that can be huge.

Damien williams if it wasnt for hyde id be all over him, im not scared of the rookies

montgomery i think beats of out davis easily, but theres a risk

michel was given the rock alot down the stretch and playoffs, i think they wanna feed him, but its the hoodie and theres 26 rb's there.

Gurley is the WC u gamble and u win ur league, or hes limitied and you lose it.

Chubb-first 8 weeks is great, but kareem hunt looms, its not like hes a slouch

 

[SteelersPride]

to tack on this most inconsistent players the top 5 dont suprise me at all!

Best ball advice: The most and least consistent 2018 players based on fantasy points | Fantasy Analysis | Pro Football Focus

 

[leftypower]

to tack on this most inconsistent players the top 5 dont suprise me at all!

Agree - no big surprises on that list. .....

 

[averagejoe]

montgomery i think beats of out davis easily, but theres a risk

My view is Davis was never in consideration for the lead. The contract he signed was basically Benny Cunningham money. If anything, Davis was a pass-catching safety net in case a rookie like Montgomery wasn't drafted. He still might be if Montgomery doesn't live up to billing.

 

[TREFF]

thanks for the info, i actually agree with you. But curious why this info is believable. BUt when it comes to Tomlins lengthy history of using a bellcow, and conner. no one is on board. They think a converted tight end who had 20 carries in a game once in all of college and the pros is gonna split? i dont get that.

Well my two cents as to why they different situations entirely-

Conner hasn't proven much, he's shown both sides of the coin..the bad side being is the one most current. Plus with AB gone, nothing really seams like its a given. Just a lot of questions to be answered there. The answer may seem obvious to you or any other Conner believer, to an outsider, its easy to see the hesitation.

In Oakland, you've got Jacobs, headliner of a rookie class that hardly anyone picked to have ANY legit, bonafird stud RB's in, competition that ended the year last year as THE guy, and an entrenched 3rd down, change of pace...plus the coaches track record. And, what's even worse, the chance of Jacobs or any Oakland RB, regardless who wins the job, eclipsing 220 carries? Slim to none. I don't think he'd had a dude get 225 carries since Wheatley..if ever. 220 is nice, top ten usage. But only like ten carries away form being in the mid teens also.