Fantasy Football News and Rumors

[TKOSpikes]

I guess what I'm suggesting is... if you're drafting in a wrap around position (i.e. 1-3, 8-10 in a 10 man league) and there's 2 or 3 RBs on the board that are all kinda similar and a good WR that I'm going to take the stud WR first and I'll catch whichever of those RBs last the 2 more picks the other guy doesn't take cause it's really hard to separate those guys in the 2 and 2b group. None of the guys who were "top" RBs last year (i.e. Rawls, Freeman, Martin) are proven at all. So it's really hard to say "Freeman is gonna be better than Rawls, I need Freeman." Screw that, I'll take AJ Green and whichever one is still there on the wrap around. Of course drafting in the middle of the round is different

I realize it's an example, but to get specific, if you drafted A.J. Green in the first round last year, you would have been happy five weeks... and grateful for a TD in three mediocre weeks. And disgusted for 8 weeks. And I owned him two years ago and recall much of the same.

To be honest, I think we're all kidding ourselves thinking there's a formula. When we all know drafting is probably only 25% of a successful season.

 

[icefreeze57]

Here's a snapshot from the article:

Personally, I think there are several factors that contribute to this seeming decline.

1. The article pointed to games missed by guys like Charles and Foster who are getting older and less durable. Even youngling LeVeon Bell missed significant time. Having a stud is one thing. Having him stay healthy is another.
2. Plus stud RB are on the decline. The days of having a tough choice between AP, LT, Steven Jackson, Ray Rice, MJD, Ricky Williams, CJ?K, Frank Gore, Charles, and Mendenhall are long gone. (Hard to believe all of these guys were playing well - or well enough - at the same time in 2009.) Now we are down to just a handful of bellcows, literally.
3. Perhaps one reason for the decline in "bellcow" backs is because none of these backs coming out of college are good enough to be. Gurley and Elliott may be exceptions. But let's not crown them into the HOF just yet.
4. Some RB that have stepped up are not consistent. A good season, or even a great half of a season, does not always translate well the following year. Inconsistency creates a lack of confidence in fantasy, which lowers a player's value.

I also think one of the reasons there is "decline in bellcows" is because the best players have stopped being RBs. WRs get hit less, they are now considered dynamic play makers who regularly get drafted in the first, get big contracts, and get to score! RBs had to learn how to catch to stay competitive, there is more incentive for these big guys to just receivers and be really good at it. Think about how some of these elite WRs look with the ball in their hand. They're bringing a RB mentality to the WR position. The top WRs aren't "soft" anymore. no one would say that about Odell and Cooper. The best players use to want to run the ball, but the way high school and college offensives are played you can get the ball in your hands as a WR. Tavon Austin is an amazing example of this! If he was a few years earlier, he'd be a running back, he doesn't catch the ball very well, but when it's in his hands, anything can happen! I always say he's not a good WR, he's a great playmaker though and that's why they hand him the ball a lot

 

[icefreeze57]

I realize it's an example, but to get specific, if you drafted A.J. Green in the first round last year, you would have been happy five weeks... and grateful for a TD in three mediocre weeks. And disgusted for 8 weeks. And I owned him two years ago and recall much of the same.

To be honest, I think we're all kidding ourselves thinking there's a formula. When we all know drafting is probably only 25% of a successful season.

But if you took Eddie Lacy instead (who was first round pick last year) you would've had 3 good weeks total and a lot of crying and benching him.

Martin had 6 games under 10 points (And one game with 1 point). 4 big weeks of 16 pushes him as a top guy?

Not saying AJ Green was a great example, but the more proven WRs seem more at least exisit when the running backs don't.

 

[TKOSpikes]

But if you took Eddie Lacy instead (who was first round pick last year) you would've had 3 good weeks total and a lot of crying and benching him.

Martin had 6 games under 10 points (And one game with 1 point). 4 big weeks of 16 pushes him as a top guy?

Not saying AJ Green was a great example, but the more proven WRs seem more at least exisit when the running backs don't.

I agree with all of that.... but the difference for me is that ANY given week there are half a dozen WR on waivers putting up double digits.

Like I said, there's no formula, it's personal preference plus potential playing time.

 

[averagejoe]

@icefreeze57
Actually posted a thread back in April "Math is a Wonderful Thing" about the success rate of each of the big 3 positions.

Basically, of the first 12 RB, WR, and QB drafted (based on consensus rankings from 2015), the RB position was the worst.
Only 3 of the first 12 RB actually finished in the top 12 = 25%
But with the WR and QB, 6 of the first 12 players drafted actually finished in the top 12 = 50%

Not exactly safe for the WR and QB since you still had a 50/50 shot. But still better than the RB position which was horrible.

 

[icefreeze57]

@icefreeze57
Actually posted a thread back in April "Math is a Wonderful Thing" about the success rate of each of the big 3 positions.

Basically, of the first 12 RB, WR, and QB drafted (based on consensus rankings from 2015), the RB position was the worst.
Only 3 of the first 12 RB actually finished in the top 12 = 25%
But with the WR and QB, 6 of the first 12 players drafted actually finished in the top 12 = 50%

Not exactly safe for the WR and QB since you still had a 50/50 shot. But still better than the RB position which was horrible.

Nice I'm glad some math was done to confirm that.

Harder to compare QBs in my opinion because the first 12 aren't drafted in the first 3 or 4 rounds like the other positions but I think it does show that if you had pick between the 8th RB or the 5th WR I'd take the 5th WR and then get the 10th RB on the wrap around.

 

[icefreeze57]

I agree with all of that.... but the difference for me is that ANY given week there are half a dozen WR on waivers putting up double digits.

Like I said, there's no formula, it's personal preference plus potential playing time.

Agreed, which is why Marquis Wilison and Lance Moore (both will be cut for roster space/rookies) finished the season on my roster, but it doesn't mean that those wavier guys actually played/preformed when started. Those guys with random 15 or 20 point weeks normally don't do it on a weekly basis after that. Injuries have a huge part to do with that as well, when Charles got hurt I picked up West and then later got Spencer Ware, and I may as well of had Charles at that point. (And why I'm trying to trade Ware to the Charles owner).


Edit: I whole heartily agree though that I'd rather take a flyer on a wavier WR than a wavier RB in an emergency situation

 

[Stomp]

Rumor: The Cowboys Have An Offer Out For Mike Glennon

 

[SmokingMonkey]

good timing for me on nabbing Kamar Aiken in D2 league:

Breshad Perriman (knee) will undergo arthroscopic surgery on Tuesday.

This is actually good news for the Ravens. Dr. James Andrews examined Perriman's knee and determined that he may not have a significant ACL tear. For now, Andrews will hold off on reconstructive surgery and see how Perriman responds to the knee scope. The No. 26 overall pick in last year's draft still has yet to play an NFL snap.
Source: Adam Schefter on Twitter
Jun 13 - 1:01 PM

Kid can't stay healthy. Bad way to start a career, could miss another full season.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

internet rumors swirling regarding LeVeon Bell skipping a drug test, which would equate to an automatic suspension as a repeat offender, if my CBA knowledge is accurate.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

internet rumors swirling regarding LeVeon Bell skipping a drug test, which would equate to an automatic suspension as a repeat offender, if my CBA knowledge is accurate.

That would be huge news if it true.

 

[Chef99]

And the counterpoint:

Le'Veon Bell denies rumor of failed drug test

 

[SmokingMonkey]

And the counterpoint:

Le'Veon Bell denies rumor of failed drug test

my keeper team is relying on Bell telling the truth.
PIT already dropped the Blount to make things easier on Bell, now he has to drop the blunt to help himself out.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

my keeper team is relying on Bell telling the truth.
PIT already dropped the Blount to make things easier on Bell, now he has to drop the blunt to help himself out.

i see what you did there...

 

[Barilko]

internet rumors swirling regarding LeVeon Bell skipping a drug test, which would equate to an automatic suspension as a repeat offender, if my CBA knowledge is accurate.

my D2 would be done if that is true

 

[SmokingMonkey]

my D2 would be done if that is true

6 games, maybe appealed down to 4?
wouldn't be toast, but would suck a big one.

or would this one be a full season?

 

[Chef99]

6 games, maybe appealed down to 4?
wouldn't be toast, but would suck a big one.

or would this one be a full season?

Honestly, I think it would depend on which way Goodell sees the wind blowing.

 

[SteelersPride]

according to pgh radio its false, but who knows

 

[SmokingMonkey]

according to pgh radio its false, but who knows

but wasn't it according to pgh radio that this story even exists?

get your radio in order up there!

 

[SteelersPride]

but wasn't it according to pgh radio that this story even exists?

get your radio in order up there!

could be, I missed the earlier portion of the day