Fantasy Football News and Rumors

[HaroldSeattle]

To piggyback on Bandit's thoughts...

This is a disaster Fantasy wise, almost all the way around.

Fantasy value winners/losers, in my valuation:

Winners-
whoever gets #2wr job in ATL-

Ridley- with one caveat...can he be THE guy that DC's scheme against?? No true threat in the running game, no one is going to gameplan a rookie TE until he prove they have too..it'll all be on Ridley

Tanneyhill- but only minor. Corey Davis was no slouch. He may never have lived up to his first round draft status, but he's a quality NFL receiver, and it's not like Tenn. will suddenly become the greatest show on turf.

Losers-
Julio- possibly the worst of any potential landing spots, including Baltimore where at least he'd have been the unquestioned go to guy.

Reynolds

Matt Ryan- you're not replacing a Julio Jones, regardless of age, with a rookie TE, regardless of how "sure fire HOF" everyone says he is.

Win some and lose some= a wash -
AJB- likely to lose a few targets, luckily for him they likely won't be red zone targets as Julio is notorious for not scoring TD's consistently. But, no longer can defenses load the box with 8, bracket Brown, and hope Davis doesn't beat 1 on 1 coverage. Julio will beat 1 on 1 coverage most everytime, meaning occasionally, hopefully a little more often than he used to be, AJB will be left with those one on ones. BTW, let's not get too crazy, Davis did leave 92 targets behind, AJB only had 106, both played in 14 games...there's plenty for Julio without touching anything from AJB's share.

Henry- perhaps a little more passing, slightly less touches..but as laid out above, defenses will have a much tougher time loading the box when they cannot afford single coverage on either outside WR, so the carries he gets, potentially could find more production.

I like what you said except for "including Baltimore". Baltimore with Jackson is like death valley for WRs, I sure was disappointed to see them draft Bateman who I had as the WR to draft after Chase.......until Baltimore drafted him. For WRs Jackson likely is the worse QB to team up with in the league, he just isn't very good at passing the ball. Maybe Cam Newton could be worse...maybe?

 

[TKOSpikes]

I think the biggest thing that does is kills any value that Firkser or Josh Reynolds had as sleepers.

I was growing fond of pretending the rookie Dez Fitzpatrick was gonna be a spark.

 

[TREFF]

I like what you said except for "including Baltimore". Baltimore with Jackson is like death valley for WRs, I sure was disappointed to see them draft Bateman who I had as the WR to draft after Chase.......until Baltimore drafted him. For WRs Jackson likely is the worse QB to team up with in the league, he just isn't very good at passing the ball. Maybe Cam Newton could be worse...maybe?

Well a push than??

I was hoping for NE myself, mainly because I feel as long as Mac Jones doesn't fall on his face, I expect him to either outright won the job, or take over after the bye..and then, mehhh, maybe it'd be a great thing for all involved. As for the Ravens, like I said, at least he'd be the undisputed best target on field, and if Hollywood can do what he did with Lamar as a rookie, surely Julio could do some great things too. But yes, still would've been bad overall. Honestly out of all the teams rumored to be in the mix for him, the only ones I wanted to see were KC or SF, none of the others seemed destination that would help Julio himself much.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I like what you said except for "including Baltimore". Baltimore with Jackson is like death valley for WRs, I sure was disappointed to see them draft Bateman who I had as the WR to draft after Chase.......until Baltimore drafted him.

I made the same mistake on AJB after he landed in TEN 2 yrs ago, so hard to predict. Sometimes the talent shifts the offensive philosophy a bit, other times talented guys disappear due to poor fit.

wonder If Arthur Smith going to ATL helped make TEN the landing spot for Julio?

 

[averagejoe]

Matt Ryan has attempted 600+ pass attempts in 7 of the last 9 years.
Ryan Tannehill has attempted 600+ pass attempts never.

 

[wilwhite]

You do, so you feel this worked out for Sportswhites?

Matt Ryan has attempted 600+ pass attempts in 7 of the last 9 years.
Ryan Tannehill has attempted 600+ pass attempts never.

As half of the Traveling Sportswillies, I'll say Julio isn't a top-6 WR any more no matter where he is. He'll make Tannehill a little better, and if Kirk Cousins can feed two top-10 WRs even with a 300-carry RB, Tannehill should be able to keep a healthy Julio in low-end WR1/high-end WR2 territory next year. And Julio's departure gives Gage room - Gage averaged over 14 FF pts/game in Old School in the four final weeks when Julio was out. He could easily be a solid WR2.

Henry may get fewer touches, but I'm not sure how bad that really is. Overall the Titans could well score even more this year than last year.

The real danger to us is if without Julio, Atlanta starts putting Pitts wide so much that he loses TE eligibility in our league. That would be bad.

 

[averagejoe]

if Kirk Cousins can feed two top-10 WRs even with a 300-carry RB, Tannehill should be able to keep a healthy Julio in low-end WR1/high-end WR2 territory next year.

This is true however Diggs/Johnson and Theilen were the primary targets just shy of always. The angst in TEN is that there many more targets to feed. Someone's fantasy value is bound to take a hit.

 

[Trudem]

Gus Edwards gets another 2 year contract in Baltimore.

 

[Yellow Fuzzies]

Gus Edwards gets another 2 year contract in Baltimore.

I own some of this stock.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

kinda dead around here, can't wait for camps to start up

 

[TREFF]

kinda dead around here, can't wait for camps to start up

About the only news since the Julio dud, Rodgers didn't show up for day 1, as expected

 

[Trudem]

About the only news since the Julio dud, Rodgers didn't show up for day 1, as expected

Yep. Once he forfeited the 500k workout bonus, I expected him to skip minicamp. The two parties are actively negotiating so thats a good sign.

 

[wilwhite]

kinda dead around here, can't wait for camps to start up

All right... how about assessing Adams’ value if his QB is Jordan Love?

 

[TKOSpikes]

All right... how about assessing Adams’ value if his QB is Jordan Love?

 

[SmokingMonkey]

All right... how about assessing Adams’ value if his QB is Jordan Love?

2017, with Brett Hundley starting 9 games, and Adams missing part of a game early in the year with concussion, then missing last 2 games with a concussion, Adams was still the WR9 overall in pts/game, WR14 in total pts.

So I think it's safe to move him out of the top tier of WRs with no Rodgers, but we still need to consider Adams' ability to make a QB - he's a route running technician that has piled up a lot of TDs over the last 5 years, even when Rodgers was out.

Adams commanded a pretty absurd 28% target share last year and in 2018 with Rodgers. Was lower 20's in 2019 and the 2017 season mentioned above. Packers avg 576 passes the last 3 years under Rodgers, assuming they dial that back a bit with Love, let's put him at 530 attempts, but let's add 25 into that number to account for the extra game played this season (Packers avg over 30 att/game with Rodgers).

I think it should be very safe to assume that Adams will get at minimum, ~20% of those targets, so that puts him at ~111 targets.

Avg 67.9% catch rate the last 4 seasons = ~75rec
Avg 12.1 yds/rec last 4 seasons = ~910yds

TDs will be the difference maker, but I also feel like this is the floor when you are considering the range of outcomes for Adams with Love.

 

[TREFF]

2017, with Brett Hundley starting 9 games, and Adams missing part of a game early in the year with concussion, then missing last 2 games with a concussion, Adams was still the WR9 overall in pts/game, WR14 in total pts.

So I think it's safe to move him out of the top tier of WRs with no Rodgers, but we still need to consider Adams' ability to make a QB - he's a route running technician that has piled up a lot of TDs over the last 5 years, even when Rodgers was out.

Adams commanded a pretty absurd 28% target share last year and in 2018 with Rodgers. Was lower 20's in 2019 and the 2017 season mentioned above. Packers avg 576 passes the last 3 years under Rodgers, assuming they dial that back a bit with Love, let's put him at 530 attempts, but let's add 25 into that number to account for the extra game played this season (Packers avg over 30 att/game with Rodgers).

I think it should be very safe to assume that Adams will get at minimum, ~20% of those targets, so that puts him at ~111 targets.

Avg 67.9% catch rate the last 4 seasons = ~75rec
Avg 12.1 yds/rec last 4 seasons = ~910yds

TDs will be the difference maker, but I also feel like this is the floor when you are considering the range of outcomes for Adams with Love.

As my buddy Darth Vadar would say- "impressive, most impressive "


One caveat..maybe pointless, maybe not...in 2017 they had Mike McCarthy,, a 4th round rookie Williams, a fifth round rookie Jones, and a converted WR, all playing RB, which went for a combination of around 1300 and 11. Now they have a seasoned and proven Aaron Jones, who could accomplish 1300 and 11 all on his own, plus a massive battering ram in Dillon, under Matt Lefluer...would he ask Love, who for all intents and purposes will be basically a rookie, to do what McCarthy asked of Hundley? Or would the situations be entirely different?

 

[averagejoe]

Well, if Jordan Love is the QB, Adams' value may still be close to normal.
The Packers may still be passing, but not to keep defenses honest, more out of necessity.
Aaron Jones may suffer more with Love as QB.

 

[TREFF]

Well I tell ya...I'd be shocked shitless if Lafluer asks Love to throw 10 TDs of five yards or less, rather than run it with Jones or Dillon...Adams and his TD's are more a result of Rodgers ego than by design.

I see Jones's value rising under Love..certainly not falling..and by default, Adams' falling

 

[TREFF]

Well I tell ya...I'd be shocked shitless if Lafluer asks Love to throw 10 TDs of five yards or less, rather than run it with Jones or Dillon...Adams and his TD's are more a result of Rodgers ego than by design.

I see Jones's value rising under Love..certainly not falling..and by default, Adams' falling

Edit...sorry, I exaggerated, only seven of Adams TD's were inside the five..but another five were inside the ten, for a total of 12 that I can't imagine would be the play call with Love rather than Rodgers

 

[wilwhite]

Packers avg 576 passes the last 3 years under Rodgers, assuming they dial that back a bit with Love, let's put him at 530 attempts, but let's add 25 into that number to account for the extra game played this season (Packers avg over 30 att/game with Rodgers).

Interesting to see that Adams led FF despite only 526 attempts by GB, which is pretty low.

Seems more like super-efficient QB play than anything else.