Fantasy Football News and Rumors

[HaroldSeattle]

I still think that you guys are putting way too much stock in Tyrod being the starter for very long. If he isn't good, he won't be on the field long enough for it to matter and they'll let Herbert go out there too early and he'll turn the ball over a ton because he's a rookie and then they'll be playing from behind the entire fourth quarter of games and Allen and Ekeler will make up the difference in garbage time. But with that being said, I firmly believe that if you own Allen or Ekeler anywhere in dynasty (like I do), then you are going to come up with reasons that it will be okay for them and if you don't you will come up with reasons that they won't be okay. It's just the way things go in fantasy analysis.

Pretty much. The counter is they are on your rosters because you believe in them.

 

[eaglesnut]

Ekeler is currently RB12/overall 26 according to fantasypros ADP
Allen is currently WR13/overall 34

Why treat them both the same?

It's Ekeker being overdrafted. Allen's ADP is already factoring in the uncertainty in the passing game and dropped about 5 spots from where he typically produces.

Ekeler has no history of success. Just a good year with a guy that's not there anymore.

 

[eaglesnut]

might need an NFL sleuth like @averagejoe to come to the rescue here, but when was the last time a QB threw for under 4,000 yds and still supported a top end WR and a top end RB?

How many yards did the Panthers pass for last year?

I'm sure it's been done.

 

[TKOSpikes]

I still think that you guys are putting way too much stock in Tyrod being the starter for very long. If he isn't good, he won't be on the field long enough for it to matter and they'll let Herbert go out there too early and he'll turn the ball over a ton because he's a rookie and then they'll be playing from behind the entire fourth quarter of games and Allen and Ekeler will make up the difference in garbage time. But with that being said, I firmly believe that if you own Allen or Ekeler anywhere in dynasty (like I do), then you are going to come up with reasons that it will be okay for them and if you don't you will come up with reasons that they won't be okay. It's just the way things go in fantasy analysis.

On the contrary, Tyrod can and should be the starter all season. And he'd run a top 15 offense.
It's not about Tyrod being incapable, it's about his style being incompatible with a 80 catch receiver, let alone 100.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

How many yards did the Panthers pass for last year?

I'm sure it's been done.

excellent example, thanks

Panthers passed for 3650 yds last year on 633 attempts (Don't think Tyrod ever attempted more than 400-425 as a Bill)

DJ Moore accumulated an insane 32% of those yds (1175)
McCaffery an even more absurd 28% (1105)

for comparison

Chargers passed for 4426
Allen 27% (1199)
MikeWill 23% (1001)
Ekeler 22% (993)

more mouths to feed and smaller pie for the Chargers this year...yikes

Expecting similar splits, projecting the Chargers with a very generous 3800 passing yds with some combo of Tyrod/Herbert
Allen projects to 1,026
MikeWill 874
Ekeler 836

Those boys are going to need to find the endzone frequently to warrant their ADP

 

[eaglesnut]

excellent example, thanks

Panthers passed for 3650 yds last year on 633 attempts (Don't think Tyrod ever attempted more than 400-425 as a Bill)

DJ Moore accumulated an insane 32% of those yds (1175)
McCaffery an even more absurd 28% (1105)

for comparison

Chargers passed for 4426
Allen 27% (1199)
MikeWill 23% (1001)
Ekeler 22% (993)

more mouths to feed and smaller pie for the Chargers this year...yikes

Expecting similar splits, projecting the Chargers with a very generous 3800 passing yds with some combo of Tyrod/Herbert
Allen projects to 1,026
MikeWill 874
Ekeler 836

Those boys are going to need to find the endzone frequently to warrant their ADP

I see Allen getting his, Mike Williams losing work and Ekeler becoming just a dunk off specialist, rather than a real part of the offense.

With Tyrod the whole offense gets simplified. Look for the top WR, then look for the TE, then run.

Tyrod can support one of the WRs. Maybe he decides that's Mike Williams, but I'll have to see that first.

 

[averagejoe]

That would take him up to ~3,600 yds
Again, that's saying that the 30yr old QB is going to improve on his best seasons to date as a pro....

might need an NFL sleuth like @averagejoe to come to the rescue here, but when was the last time a QB threw for under 4,000 yds and still supported a top end WR and a top end RB?

That's a lot of research.
Let's just stick with the 3600 passing number you threw out.
I also stipulated that the QB start at least 13 games (which seemed reasonable to me) for the results.
209 QB have done this going back to the 2000 season.

I'll just take the top 10 on the list.

• 2009 David Garrard (JAX) 3597 passing. Maurice Jones-Drew had 1800 all-purpose yards. But best WR was Mike Sims-Walker with 869 yards.
• 2011 Josh Freeman (TB) 3592 passing. Blount had 781 rush yards. WR Mike Williams had 771 receiving yards.
• 2003 Jon Kitna (CIN) 3591 passing. Rudi Johnson was just shy of 1000 rush yards. Chad Ocho-Cinco had 1355 yards. Honorable mention to Corey Dillon who had almost 500 rush yards of his own.
• 2005 Drew Brees (SD) 3576 passing. LaDanian Tomlinson had 1462 rush yards. Antonio Gates had 1100 receiving yards followed closely by Keenan McCardell's 917.
• 2002 Aaron Brooks (NO) 3572 passing. Deuce McAllister 1388 rush yards. WR Joe Horn had 1312 receiving.
• 2011 Matt Hasselbeck (TEN) 3571 passing. Chris Johnson 1047 rush yards. WR Nate Washington 1023.
• 2009 Donovan McNabb (PHI) 3553 passing. LeSean McCoy was just shy of 1000 all-purpose yards. DeSean Jackson had 1156 receiving followed closely by Brent Celek's 971.
• 2017 Case Keenum (MIN) 3547 passing. Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon each had close to 1000 all-purpose yards. Adam Thielen has 1276 receiving.
• 2003 Aaron Brooks (NO) 3546 passing. Deuce McAllister 2000+ all-purpose yards. WR Joe Horn had 973 receiving.
• 2001 Jeff Garcia (SF) 3538 passing. Garrison Hearst 1206 rush yards. Terrell Owens 1412 receiving yards.

My synopsis is that if the team supports a lead back and favorite WR, sure, it's possible.

 

[SteelersPride]

Why treat them both the same?

It's Ekeker being overdrafted. Allen's ADP is already factoring in the uncertainty in the passing game and dropped about 5 spots from where he typically produces.

Ekeler has no history of success. Just a good year with a guy that's not there anymore.

false. Again, you speak with no evidence.......ekeler has been fairly good in situations. Last year he was not efficient. But theres metrics in other years to back it up. So to say he has no success is uneducated.
https://www.profootballnetwork.com/...ly-solution-for-the-chargers-at-running-back/
Forget Melvin Gordon; It's Austin Ekeler's Time to Become an NFL Star
Can Austin Ekeler build on his amazing 2019?
Austin Ekeler's Fantasy Outlook for 2020


just a myriad of points

 

[Barilko]

That's a lot of research.
Let's just stick with the 3600 passing number you threw out.
I also stipulated that the QB start at least 13 games (which seemed reasonable to me) for the results.
209 QB have done this going back to the 2000 season.

I'll just take the top 10 on the list.

• 2009 David Garrard (JAX) 3597 passing. Maurice Jones-Drew had 1800 all-purpose yards. But best WR was Mike Sims-Walker with 869 yards.
• 2011 Josh Freeman (TB) 3592 passing. Blount had 781 rush yards. WR Mike Williams had 771 receiving yards.
• 2003 Jon Kitna (CIN) 3591 passing. Rudi Johnson was just shy of 1000 rush yards. Chad Ocho-Cinco had 1355 yards. Honorable mention to Corey Dillon who had almost 500 rush yards of his own.
• 2005 Drew Brees (SD) 3576 passing. LaDanian Tomlinson had 1462 rush yards. Antonio Gates had 1100 receiving yards followed closely by Keenan McCardell's 917.
• 2002 Aaron Brooks (NO) 3572 passing. Deuce McAllister 1388 rush yards. WR Joe Horn had 1312 receiving.
• 2011 Matt Hasselbeck (TEN) 3571 passing. Chris Johnson 1047 rush yards. WR Nate Washington 1023.
• 2009 Donovan McNabb (PHI) 3553 passing. LeSean McCoy was just shy of 1000 all-purpose yards. DeSean Jackson had 1156 receiving followed closely by Brent Celek's 971.
• 2017 Case Keenum (MIN) 3547 passing. Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon each had close to 1000 all-purpose yards. Adam Thielen has 1276 receiving.
• 2003 Aaron Brooks (NO) 3546 passing. Deuce McAllister 2000+ all-purpose yards. WR Joe Horn had 973 receiving.
• 2001 Jeff Garcia (SF) 3538 passing. Garrison Hearst 1206 rush yards. Terrell Owens 1412 receiving yards.

My synopsis is that if the team supports a lead back and favorite WR, sure, it's possible.

i guess i need repeat it again

Spoiler: BTAJ

Better Than Average Joe

 

[TREFF]

Made me curious..Troy Aikmen never had 4k yards, Emmit always was a league leader rushing, and Irvin was usually a stud (in those days)

 

[averagejoe]

Made me curious..Troy Aikmen never had 4k yards, Emmit always was a league leader rushing, and Irvin was usually a stud (in those days)

But look at some of those names on that list.
McAllister, MJD, Tomlinson, Chad Johnson, Owens, Horn, Gates...
They were fantasy elite.
Keenan Allen has proven himself (if he can stay healthy).
Does Ekeler have the pedigree or ceiling to join these guys?

 

[Payton]

Made me curious..Troy Aikmen never had 4k yards, Emmit always was a league leader rushing, and Irvin was usually a stud (in those days)

Yeah, Aikman was considered a “Great” NFL QB, but wasn’t ever really a fantasy stud...

 

[TREFF]

But look at some of those names on that list.
McAllister, MJD, Tomlinson, Chad Johnson, Owens, Horn, Gates...
They were fantasy elite.
Keenan Allen has proven himself (if he can stay healthy).
Does Ekeler have the pedigree or ceiling to join these guys?

Well Emmit was certainly elite for a good stretch, as was Irvin sometimes.

I'm not buying Ekeler going into this season, not without some impressive scheme changes to account for the lack of a threat at QB

 

[eaglesnut]

false. Again, you speak with no evidence.......ekeler has been fairly good in situations. Last year he was not efficient. But theres metrics in other years to back it up. So to say he has no success is uneducated.
Austin Ekeler can't be the only solution for the Chargers at running back
Forget Melvin Gordon; It's Austin Ekeler's Time to Become an NFL Star
Can Austin Ekeler build on his amazing 2019?
Austin Ekeler's Fantasy Outlook for 2020


just a myriad of points

You're being a dope just to argue.

Keenan has been WR8, 12 and 3 the last three years.

Ekeler RB6, 24, 45

"In situations." Lol

 

[SteelersPride]

You're being a dope just to argue.

Keenan has been WR8, 12 and 3 the last three years.

Ekeler RB6, 24, 45

"In situations." Lol

yeah y look at data....

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I'm just staying awake for the back and forth now......

 

[eaglesnut]

yeah y look at data....

You're really having trouble here. Three years of data: 8,12, 3 vs 6, 24, 45.

That data also matches exactly with what I said above. Somehow you still lost your shit over it.

 

[SteelersPride]

You're really having trouble here. Three years of data: 8,12, 3 vs 6, 24, 45.

That data also matches exactly with what I said above. Somehow you still lost your shit over it.

right......

 

[SmokingMonkey]

 

[Payton]

Bottom line, no matter what Ekeler does, he will suffer the same fate as Mack...