Fangraphs' Top 15 Pirate Prospects

[magnumo]

Fangraphs' list has just been published:

Top 15 Prospects: Pittsburgh Pirates | FanGraphs Baseball

Notably, in the introductory paragraph, the author states: "The organization has some true star power at the top of its minor league depth chart but things begin to peter out after the Top 3 prospects and the cupboard is rather bare by the end of the Top 15." (Bold added by me.)

A few observations:

- It's pretty clear that Fangraphs does not consider the Pirates' farm system to be as strong as many Pirate fans do.

- Fangraphs' top 2 prospects have not played an inning of pro ball.

- They're still high on Sanchez.

- In the write-up on Bell, the author states that the Pirates SHOULD BE competitive by 2015. Personally, I hope that our team is competitive BEFORE 2015..... but I fear that, come 2015, many Pirate fans will still be advocating patience.

When do you think the Pirates will become competive? (Feel free to use any definition of "competitive" you like..... and feel free to share that definition.) Here are your multiple choices:

1. 2012

2. 2013

3. 2014

4. 2015

5. Later than 2015

6. Not in the foreseeable future

 

[Illinest]

Interesting question. I will define success as 'solidly above .500'. Not simply a flirtation like we saw last year. Im talking about a team that is projected to be in contention in spring training and achieves 85+ wins.

I think that one of cole or taillon will frustrate us. I think we are going to have an ace pitcher - one or the other - but i would be surprised if there isnt a hiccup somewhere. The other one will contribute but not dominate. I think we will get one other fairly good starter from the group of locke, wilson, mcpherson, morris, and lincoln. We MIGHT also get one of the younger prep pitchers around the same time.

In the field - presley, tabata, marte, and grossman each have a legitimate concern. I have my favorites of course but im thinking that we will get two at least that deserve to play. Maybe all four will deserve to play but i say deserve rather than 'star' because i doubt that any of them are going to match mcc. We have no ss, our 2b is decent. Not much at first and we are absolutely stuck with alvarez at third for the short term. Sanchez might be the answer at C. Aside from that we're twiddling our thumbs over bell or praying that someone steps up big. The lineup seems destined to be a bit weak for the foreseeable future in other words.

Once all of that shakes out we should have enough of a rotation to hold its' own. Im saying 2014.

 

[element1286]

Not a fan of Fangraphs prospects lists, the guy who wrote this piece has no more information than we as fans; Law, Mayo, Goldstein, and Sickels all have better information available to them (in person scouting and contacts with scouts/orgs), and rate the Pirates system more favorably.

As for the top two RH's, considering the stuff they have, I would be shocked if both didn't become #3 starters (innings eaters types) at least, barring serious-injury. I have a crazy hard time believing guys with their stuff will just not be able to make it on performance. Each has a pretty significant arsenal, and they aren't just flamethrowers.

Contrast that to Stetson Allie, who I could easily see flaming out (in a performance context) because he doesn't have any feel for pitching, and only has two pitches at this point, and can't locate either.

I'm not a fan of the predicting the year crap because so much changes year to year; but gun to my head, using Illinest definition, I would say 2014 as well.

 

[thecrow124]

Let me start this off by saying that while I like to read the write-up of top prospects, I put little faith in many of them. So fangraphs can rank them however they want, but their write-ups don't even match their rankings, so I have little value for what they say.
That being said I kind of like Taillon better than anyone else in our system. The only player I think even has a shot of being as good is Heredia and he has a ways to go.
Now as for when we will be competitive I would have to say 2012. Every team in the central is worse except the Reds, so just for that fact I think we will be competitive. Don't confuse that with me thinking we will be good, just that we will be good in the division. I think we will finish 2nd in the division, but probably with 82-83 wins. More than likely 10that games back or more, but building toward being good.

 

[element1286]

I'd rank Taillon number #1 as well.

 

[magnumo]

Thanks for the responses so far, guys. You all seem to be in agreement that the Fangraphs list stinks. On the other hand, every list I've seen (including that one) agrees pretty closely on who should be in the top 10..... although the order varies considerably. My own personal top 10:

1. Taillon
2. Cole
3. Marte
4. Heredia
5. Grossman
6. Bell
7. McPherson
8. Locke
9. Allie
10. Sanchez

My order differs from some others because my criteria are skewed more toward performance, rather than potential. Thus, since Taillon has performed reasonably well over an entire professional season, I still rank him ahead of Cole, who has pitched only in the AFL. Similarly, I have Marte and Grossman ahead of Bell, since Bell hasn't played an inning as a pro.

As far as when the team will become competitive, I guess I should answer my own question. I see no chance in 2012, because the pitching won't be good enough. The earliest possibility I see is 2014 (due to the potential of improved major league pitching), but I fear that "not in the foreseeable future" is the right answer.

Believe it or not, I used to be an optimist..... but the 20 years of losing, along with so many mis-steps, especially the team's awful play after the break in 2011, has beat that out of me.

 

[itsneon]

I believe the Pirates will be right around 500 this year, based on their talent. Neil has done nothing to improve this team, but the Central will be down this year. With Fielder and Pujols gone, Braun suspended for 50 games, and Houston/Chicago being bad, I think that we will do better against our division then years past. But the fact remains, that we are operating with subpar management that will not sign any legitimate starters, but rather potential starters. Unless we get real lucky and ALOT of our prospects develop into legitimate major league players, I do not foresee us ever becoming a consistent presence to win 90 games a year.

 

[Etrius24]

I want to see more from Marte... But I love Grossman... He keep getting better... Every facet of his game continues to get better... He walks more, he strikes out less... His power has developed...He continues to run well and is going to stick defensively in the outfield.

I think there is an outside chance we could see Grossman audition for a 2013 roster spot in September of this season...

And I think that if Pedro ever did develop into anything worthwhile...It would mean the team could be pretty exciting in 2013... Walker should still be here.... Pedro, Cutch, Grossman..Sanchez... nice offensive nucleus. By 2013 there should be some help for the rotation as well.

And if the Hanrahan trade thing actually happens there should be a windfall for the minor league system that could net a player for the 2013 roster...

2013 is the year I am really looking forward to.

 

[thedddd]

I am with Etrius 2013 is the year we should look forward to because if all goes perfect they should have their top 2 pitchers in Cole and Taillon.

Also it would be very nice if these 15 make it:
Jameson Taillon and 15 Pittsburgh Pirates Prospects Destined for Stardom | Bleacher Report

 

[Etrius24]

DDDD,

I am not asking for everything to go perfectly... If that were the case Pedro would win a MVP award hitting .330 with 40 homeruns and 100 walks... Cutch would be a member of the 30-30 club... Walker would hit .300 with 20+ homeruns and 80+ walks.. Tabata would develop his power and start hitting 25+ homeruns annually And that is just the offense!

There is no perfection, But as long as Grossman Cole and Tallion stay healthy they should all see some time in Pittsburgh at some point in 2013... It would be nice if they were up for the majority of the season and playing well enough to help the team win games.

 

[thedddd]

Etrius...sorry wasn't saying you were. I was just saying if all goes perfect with those two we will see them in 2013. If that is the case that should be the year we should expect an improvement.

It is a shame that 2012 is another throw away season.

 

[Etrius24]

DDDD,

It does not have to be a total throw away season... I am still hoping for a break through for Pedro... So that he is something more than a guy who strikes out too much... does not hit for enough average or get on base to be a complete hitter.. I am going to watch games this year hoping that McCutchen will continue to get better and be the team's best player... I think he can play a little better than we have seen thus far. I will be hoping that Tabata can show us a little more pop in the bat and get his OPS up in to the .820-.850 range

I am hoping that Hanrahan and Bedard dominate so that the Pirates can win games all season long and maybe, just maybe come the trade deadline the Pirates can load up by trading these guys to a contender wanting to get into the post season..

Last year the Pitching was extra ordinarily good in the first half and because of that the Pirates were at or above the .500 mark for a considerable amount of time. I would like to see them improve upon that in 2012.

The offense is short a power bat and the starting rotation is short a quality arm...But there is no reason to consider this a throw away season..

For me one of the biggest questions is how much money does NH have to spend? We keep hearing that he has been given the green light to spend more money and to sign free agents... So if Bedard and Hanrahan pitch well and we trade them for a couple great young prospects that can help the club in 2013..If say for example that Grossman Cole Tallion and Sanchez make any kind of positive impact in 2013... Well then will NH pull the trigger next offseason and add a quality arm or a power bat for the lineup? Because he sure as heck did not do those things THIS offseason...

This leaves me asking... What has to happen for the Bucs to spend the money to get a top player as a free agent??? How close to being competitive do they need to be?

 

[magnumo]

This leaves me asking... What has to happen for the Bucs to spend the money to get a top player as a free agent??? How close to being competitive do they need to be?

Seems to me the BEST we can hope for is:

1. The Pirates retain SOME of their home-grown talent beyond their arbitration years (as the front office has stated repeatedly).

2. The front office will follow through with what they have said. Coonelly was quoted earlier this off-season that he expected the Pirates opening 2012 player payroll to exceed their closing payroll in 2011. (Obviously hasn't happened so far.)

As with other small market teams, it is unlikely that the Bucs will "spend the money to get a top player as a free agent," now or in the future, as long as the financial landscape of MLB remains essentially unchanged. Both Coonelly and Huntington have been quoted repeatedly to the effect that the Pirates will not pursue top free agents.

 

[Etrius24]

Mags

I could care less what you think....

I already knew that it was likely they would try to lock up a couple of the younger players on the roster...

And if the opening day payroll is going to increase over that of last season that means it needs to go up considerably!...As unlikely as it might seem there is enough money to ink a good free agent... No not Prince Fielder... But someone better to play first than Nick Fucking Evans ( who I like as a defensive platoon player in limited situations )

All of this makes me wonder if...

The pirates made a play for some lesser free agents like for example...Kendrick to play first base??? or Kubel to play a corner outfield and platoon at first base...

I do not blame some free agents for not wanting to come to Pittsburgh....Unless the Pirates were offering more money, more years or a guarantee to play full time...There would not be much point... And as frustrated as the fan base may be... I do not think we want to see slightly above average players paid like stars for long term contracts.

I really was hoping they would make Kendrick happen though... His bat is worth bringing in....

 

[Darkstone42]

A couple of prospects-related articles:

Pirates Prospects Clayton Holmes: Sleeper Prospect

Pirates Prospects Five Pirates Ranked in Keith Law’s Top 100

 

[Illinest]

The KLaw likes Grossman more than many do. Not more than me. I think that Grossman has a good enough eye that he'll make pitchers beat him in the zone and I think that he'll learn to punish mistake pitches enough to accumulate extra bases.

I think his worst case is something like .220/.310/.350 but I think his best case is more like .280/.390/.430. The upcoming season will tell more. It's AA time.

 

[element1286]

The KLaw likes Grossman more than many do. Not more than me. I think that Grossman has a good enough eye that he'll make pitchers beat him in the zone and I think that he'll learn to punish mistake pitches enough to accumulate extra bases.

I think his worst case is something like .220/.310/.350 but I think his best case is more like .280/.390/.430. The upcoming season will tell more. It's AA time.

I'm excited to see him at AA, decent shot at being Nick Swisher.