early draft thread

[Illinest]

Scraped this off the internet. I don't know much about these guys but I've been hearing Deven Marrero's name for a while now and if he slips to eight then we probably have to pick him there.

If Neil gets scared about his job and wants a college position player then he might pull a Tony Sanchez again and go for someone like Richie Shaffer.

Future 50 v. 2.0
Byron Buxton remains No. 1; Florida's Mike Zunino climbs to No. 2


I'll be expanding this list to 100 names in the next few weeks, but in the meantime, injuries and performance changes have altered the list enough since the last update that it was time for a fresh look.

One note: Missouri State's Pierce Johnson would have appeared on this list, but a forearm strain has knocked him out of the rotation and out of the top 50 until we get more information.


Big Board Bar

1
Byron Buxton
CF
6-1
175
H.S.

Analysis: There's a broad consensus around Buxton as the best player in this draft and a legitimate No. 1 overall pick, as he earns comparisons to a number of other players drafted in that top spot. He has all tools, an 80 runner on the 20-80 scouting scale with an 80 arm (reportedly 95-98 mph off the mound last week) and big future power. But he's playing against poor high school competition in rural Georgia and has yet to homer this spring, so he's not without his risks.

2
Mike Zunino
C
6-2
215

Analysis: A true catcher who has an unorthodox style at the plate but hits, uses the whole field and has power is a pretty valuable commodity, and he carries less risk than the three high-upside pitchers ranked right behind him. Most scouts seem to think he doesn't get past Seattle at No. 3.

3
Mark Appel
RHP
6-5
215

Analysis: The stuff is there, and the results are better, but the lack of deception in his delivery combined with a habit of leaving pitches (especially his changeup) up in the zone make him more hittable than a guy with this stuff should be.

4
Kyle Zimmer
RHP
6-4
220

Analysis: Zimmer has less of a track record than Appel but as much velocity with a better present breaking ball. He's a former position player who fields his position well but isn't as advanced a pitcher as Appel is. His velocity was down in his last start, sitting 91 mph and topping out at 93, which bears watching this upcoming weekend.

5
Carlos Correa
SS
6-4
190

Analysis: On track to be the highest-drafted Puerto Rican player in history as an athletic 17-year-old who projects to hit and hit for power but probably ends up at third base in pro ball. For comparison, he has more offensive upside than Francisco Lindor, who was drafted with the eighth pick last year in a stronger crop. Correa's also a dark horse to go No. 1 overall.

6
Kevin Gausman
RHP
6-4
185
LSU

Analysis: He's up to 99 mph on a pretty regular basis with an above-average changeup, but he's showing only a fringy curveball when he'd probably be better suited to throwing a slider.

7
Deven Marrero
SS
6-1
194
Zunino

Analysis: He's really struggling at the plate this year, not just in terms of results but he is showing a lack of effort that has the area scouts confused since Marrero's makeup was always one of his strengths. I still see a plus defender at short who'll hit for average and has a high probability of being a decent big leaguer. I've heard Pittsburgh at No. 8 might be his floor.

8
Albert Almora
OF
6-2
170
Harvard-Westlake

Analysis: One of the best defensive center fielders to come out of the high school ranks, Almora has great feel for hitting and a simple swing with the potential to hit for power in the future.

9
Max Fried
LHP
6-3
170

Analysis: Owner of perhaps the best left-handed curveball in the draft with a very competitive nature and good feel for pitching that helps him pitch above his grade-55 fastball.

10
Matt Smoral
LHP
6-8
225

Analysis: The Solon, Ohio, product is out for the spring after suffering a stress fracture in his foot while pitching on a makeshift mound on a football field a few weeks ago, but scouts have seen enough of his easy 60 fastball/60 slider combo that I think he'll go in the top-20 picks even without giving scouts more looks before June.

11
Lucas Giolito
RHP
6-6
230

Analysis: This one is tough, as Giolito is out with what appears to be the most minor of elbow injuries and should pitch again in some format before the draft. If he does and the plus-plus fastball is still there, he'll undergo a lot of scrutiny from team doctors but could sneak back into the top 10.

12
Richie Shaffer
3B
6-3
205

Analysis: No player has improved his stock more than Shaffer has this spring, showing improved defense at third and better feel for hitting to go with 60 raw power. He probably has the best bat speed in the draft, at least among college hitters.

13
Stephen Piscotty
3B
6-3
215
Owasso H.S.

Analysis: Piscotty's results haven't been great under Stanford's hit-by-numbers-and-don't-ever-pull-the-ball approach, but there's power in there once the shackles come off in pro ball. But he's not the defender at third that Shaffer is. Called "the perfect A's pick" by one national scout.

14
Gavin Cecchini
SS
6-1
180
Searcy H.S.

Analysis: Some scouts call him overrated; others call him a no-doubt top-15 guy. Where they agree is that he has a good chance to stay at shortstop and a very good chance to hit for average, making him relatively safe for a high school kid.

15
Zach Eflin
RHP
6-5
200

Analysis: I saw him on one of his best nights of the year, but even at 90 percent of that he's a clear first-rounder and has the size, delivery and demeanor of a big leaguer to go with the above-average fastball and changeup. Scrap the knuckle-curve in favor of a traditional curve or slider, and you have a potential No. 2 starter or more.

 

[steelparrot]

We sure could use a short stop.

 

[Etrius24]

Someone that can draw 100+ walks and hit 30+ homeruns would go a long way towards fixing what is lacking in this offense....Does not matter what position they play.. for that kind of bat, you find a way to get them into the lineup... besides guys like Jones will not be around much longer anyways.

 

[element1286]

All things being equal, I think they need a position player at #8.

 

[Illinest]

I want bpa but not sure about giolito. If he falls too far then willingness to spend to get him may make the next 9 rounds a bargain search. If hes clearly the best talent then it may be worth sacrificing 9 draft picks for him. I dont want to draft for need. No no no.

 

[magnumo]

BPA always. However, in the event of a "tie" on their board between a pitcher and position player..... they should take the position player. (Perhaps that's what element and Illinest have said already.)

 

[element1286]

BPA always. However, in the event of a "tie" on their board between a pitcher and position player..... they should take the position player. (Perhaps that's what element and Illinest have said already.)

Yep.

 

[thecrow124]

This will always be my contention though, why a college hitter over a HS hitter? I have almost relegated myself to the fact that unless Zunino slides, we will be drafting Deven Marrero, which would be drafting for need IMO. But i digress, if we would be drafting Marrero because he is a strong defensive SS who is all but certain to stick at short, and probably won't hit enough to even play there at a Major League level, then why not draft Gavin Cecchini, a HS SS that fits the same description, but there is at least a possibility that he might eventually be able to hit.
I realize that college hitters typically hit better than HS hitters at the major league level, but we are talking a out a guy that everyone knows isn't going to hit anyway.
One last thing, there is actually a decent top 10 in this draft, and Marrero isn't one of them, but he is close, however, there are obviously better players that will be there for us to pick from. If Lucas Giolitto is there, I would take him, I am not concerned about his elbow, if it were really that bad I think he would have just removed himself from the draft and went to college.

 

[element1286]

I don't have a firm name yet. The only thing I can share that I've heard all week is that this... - Bucs Dugout

Dejan says no on Marrero.

 

[Illinest]

kind of a weak draft. Marrero isn't an overdraft if he's taken around 8-12 considering who else is available. Most people forget that there was a time when Marrero falling to us was considered a dream scenario. Marrero DID hit as a freshman. The longer view shows that he's not such a great college hitter but it's not at all crazy that the Pirates were looking at him.
Having said that - I do believe that there's better choices for us. First of all I'd be surprised if the draft goes exactly as projected. I think there's a fair chance that there'll be an intriguing name available at 8 - possibly one of the 'top 6'.
There doesn't appear to be a real college hitter available so I'd be happy to draft pitching again, or a high school hitter. Whoever is available I hope that we take the player with the highest ceiling.

Edited:
I'm hoping Almora, Correa, or Gausman fall to us. I'm hoping some GM thinks they're gonna be the guy who benefits from drafting Giolito. That would leave just one other team ahead of us to make a surprise choice or a 'signability' pick and we'll get one of those three.

 

[element1286]

Still crossing my fingers for Correa.