Duckboy33
Well-Known Member
No offense but it's time for you to take your head out of the sand. Oregon is #4 and UF is unranked because of their schedules. Scheduling plays a BIG part in the rankings.
This is a little long but please read it!
Since 2010 Oregon has been ranked 10 years out of the 14 seasons. In those 10 ranked years, Oregon played 25 teams in the 12 Game regular seasons that were ranked and was 12-13. They played 95 unranked teams and went 91-4.
This year Oregon is slated to play 2 ranked teams, so: 12/25*2 = 1.2 wins or 1 -1 record.
This year Oregon is slated to play 10 unranked teams, so: 91/95*10 = 9.58 wins or 10-0 record
Total Oregon is expected to have 10.78 wins or to be 11-1 and ranked #4. Oregon would be in the Big Ten CCG and the CFP.
Suppose Oregon had to play UF's schedule with 8 ranked opponents and 4 unranked teams.
Against ranked teams Oregon is expected to be 12/25*8 = 3.84 wins or 4-4 record
Against unranked teams Oregon is expected to be 91/95*4 = 3.83 wins or 4-0 record
Thus Oregon would be expected have 7.67 wins or to be 8-4 and NOT ranked #4. Oregon would NOT be in the Big Ten CCG or the CFP but would be ranked somewhere.
Since 2010 Florida has been ranked 6 years out of the 14 seasons and unranked in 8 of the 14 seasons. Since we don't know what Florida is let's use all 14 years. In those 14 ranked years, Florida played 56 teams in the 12 Game regular seasons that were ranked and was 15-41. They played 107 unranked teams and went 85-22.
This year Florida is slated to play 8 ranked teams, so: 15/56*8 = 2.14 wins or 2 -6 record.
This year Florida is slated to play 4 unranked teams, so: 85/107*4 = 3.18 wins or 3-1 record
Total Florida is expected to have 5.32 wins or to be 5-7 and unranked. Florida would not be in the SEC CCG, the CFP, or even a bowl game!
Suppose Florida had to play Oregon's schedule with 2 ranked opponents and 10 unranked teams.
Against ranked teams Florida is expected to be 15/56*2 = 0.536 wins or 1-1 record
Against unranked teams Florida is expected to be 85/107*10 = 7.94 wins or 8-2 record
Thus Florida would be expected have 8.48 wins or to be 8-4 and have the same record as Oregon! Florida would not be in the SEC CCG or the CFP, but, would go to a bowl game!
Would Florida be ranked? I hope NOT. An 8-4 record vs 8 ranked opponents is WAY better than 8-4 vs 2 ranked teams!
If Florida and Oregon played on a neutral field in 2024, Oregon is likely a 2 TD favorite (or more).
Last year I saw Utah handle Florida easily in SLC. Oregon went into SLC and won by 4 TDs and put their foot off the gas in the 3rd quarter. You can do whatever math equations you want but the programs are at different levels currently.