Draft talk time

[Old Lion]

one of a baker's dozen coming between now and the 29th. It seems a tad early for Werner but what do I know. nada.

Lions mock draft watch: PFN hands out a 3-round mock for Detroit (usatoday.com)

1st round- Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

2nd round- Pete Werner, LB, Ohio State

3rd round (1st)- Dyami Brown, WR, North Carolina

3rd round (2nd)- Tyree Gillespie, S, Missouri

Some of the options available for the Lions for this first third-round selection in this particular mock draft were Oregon CB/S Jevon Holland, Michigan OT Jalen Mayfield, and Louisana Tech DT Milton Williams, all of whom could compete for starting roles with how the current roster is set up.

I like Werner but not in round 2. Replace him with Tufele and put Werner in the 4th and I would be ecstatic with this draft.

 

[Old Lion]

4. T WALKER LITTLE, STANFORD​

Biggest pro: Mirror ability​

Little's short shuttle (4.58) and three-cone (7.43) at his pro day came as absolutely no surprise to anybody who has studied his tape. Those two marks sit in the 82nd and 89th percentile, respectively, among past tackle prospects.

His agility and mirror are precisely what teams want at offensive tackle. The only question is, will his physical traits be enough for teams to overlook his lack of playing time and trust the small stretch of quality play in his collegiate career?

Biggest con: Not playing for two years​

There isn’t a more boom-or-bust prospect in this class than Walker Little. Once a highly coveted five-star recruit back in 2017, he has made only 19 starts since, with only one coming over the last two years. He suffered a season-ending injury in Stanford’s 2019 opener and decided to opt out of the 2020 season and focus on the 2021 NFL Draft.

Little did look like he was on the path to stardom before that. Over his final seven college games — one in 2019 and six in 2018 — he earned a 93.3 pass-block grade and allowed pressure on just 0.4% of his pass-blocking snaps.

Things would be different if that stretch were twice as long and more recent, but the fact that he has just one game under his belt in over two and a half years will give teams pause when considering him in Round 1.

Like him but no earlier then round 3 and that is only because we have 2 picks.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

I like Werner but not in round 2. Replace him with Tufele and put Werner in the 4th and I would be ecstatic with this draft.

Maybe at best Werner gets picked latter 1/3 of third round. Agree with you for 4th round though but it'll depend on how LB are being drafted goes. GM's get crazy and Werner is a damn good all-around LB and a plus in coverage.

I don't see Tufele as being worthy of No. 41 either but that's just me.

None of these iDL are true win on their own pass rushers outside of Barmore. Twyman had 10 in 2019 and reading an article, 7 were circumstantial and not due to his effort. Remember Pitt had DE's Jones and Weaver but believe the latter sustained a knee injury and was out remainder of the season.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

wouldn't be upset 1 bit if he fell into our laps but Cincy would be crazy to pass on him even with him opting out last year. He'd provide stability to that line and should Decker fall to some injury, Sewell would be better on paper than Crosby. Strengthen the OL for Goff which in turn helps Swift, Williams, Kerryon, Hock and whatever WR are on field.

Oregon OL prospect Penei Sewell wants to showcase his physicality (detroitlions.com)

The phrase 'violent intentions' is something Oregon offensive line coach Alex Mirabal used to say to his Ducks offensive linemen, and it seemed to resonate with offensive tackle Penei Sewell.

"Once he introduced that phrase it kind of stuck with me," Sewell said in a Zoom call with reporters this week. "Like it never left and it kind of carried out through my whole 2019 season once I heard that. In between those lines I turn that on and I turn on that violent intentions, whether it's pass block (or) run block."

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

The 19-year-old that played outside of him, breakout star Ja'Marr Chase, caught a few less balls (84), but for more yards (1,780) while setting an SEC record for receiving touchdowns (20) en route to the Biletnikoff award (21.2 YPR).

He had 24 receptions of 20-plus yards in 2019, with 8-of-20 TD catches coming from 50+.

bully you after the catch (broke 22 tackles in 2019).

BB_72: All of these following posts are copied and pasted so, not in my words.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

DeVonta Smith slender 172-frame is a popular talking point, as Smith’s dimensions make him a historical Round 1 proposition. In the last 10 years, only two receivers over 6-foot and under 180 pounds have been drafted, Snoop Minnis (a 2011 third-rounder) and Paul Richardson Jr. (a 2014 second-rounder).

Ironically, I think Smith’s frame actually provides him a hidden advantage. At 6-foot-1 with a 78 ½ wingspan (Senior Bowl measurements), Smith has a deceivingly big catch radius for his size. And that absolutely sneaks up on defenders.

From last year’s receiver class, Smith has the exact same wingspan as Collin Johnson (6’6/222), Denzel Mims (6’3/207) and Austin Mack (6’2/208), and Smith’s wingspan is longer than 6’4 receivers Antonio Gandy-Golden and Dezmon Patmon. So what we have here is a receiver with the length of a taller receiver, who catches everything you put within his distended catch radius. And I mean everything. The last two years, on 233 targets, Smith had 184 catches and just five drops.

Smith and Ja’Marr Chase essentially posted identical 90.0-plus PFF grades on contested targets over the past two seasons.

Smith's Stretch Armstrong arms and human contortionist body, that he ends up playing bigger than he is. Or, check that -- corralling balls you’d assume a receiver his height has no business hauling in.

Similarly, because of his burst and instincts with the ball in his hands, he plays faster than his 40 time too. Like CeeDee Lamb from the last glass, he’s a hang-glider in the opener field, slicing in and out of traffic and running frustrated defensive backs into each other like keystone cops.

Smith is 175 pounds and he won’t get much bigger. He came to Tuscaloosa weighing 157 pounds

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Waddle separates more naturally, and perhaps as well as any receiver we’ve seen come into the league in the last three years. This is because, athletically, Waddle knows few equals.

Off the snap, he’s at top speed immediately. Tyreek Hill-level speed, with the ability to swivel and pivot and cut at full speeds without losing much velocity. Waddle can throttle down from stop and come back for the ball immediately, and he can cut a 90-degree corner at Ferrari speeds that would rip the gears out of other cars.

One surprising aspect about Waddle’s game is that, despite his frame, his tape includes a catalogue of ridiculous circus catches where he uses the freak momentum he’s generated from his speed to loft himself into the air downfield and high-point balls over stunned corners who are two or three inches taller than him (Waddle went six-of-eight in contested situations over the last two seasons).

Waddle remains raw and unseasoned (971 career snaps). But he proved plenty in college. Waddle has shown that he can win both on the inside and outside, and he’s a ridiculously dangerous return man.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Bateman immediately flashed as a true freshman, posting a 51-704-6 line. He broke out as a national star in 2019 as a sophomore, posting a 60-1219-11 line as the outside “X” receiver on a team that also had an NFL slot receiver (Tyler Johnson).

posted a respectable 36-472-2 line in five starts, opting-out

Gophers coaches asked Bateman, upon his return to the team, to shift from WR-X to the slot -- Tyler Johnson’s old position.

The Gophers had multiple high-profile offensive lineman opt-out or get injured this fall, so perhaps there was also a thought that moving Bateman closer in the alignment to to erratic QB

strong kid who plays through contact efficiently without the ball. And fights through it with the rock, breaking 36 tackles on 147 career catches.

Bateman can lose focus, or, conversely, try to do much, leading to 19 drops on 166 career catchable targets. This is an area he needs to clean up. But just to be clear: This is a concentration issue, not a “hands” issue. If you’ve seen his highlight reel, you know his hands are phenomenal.

Bateman had run a 4.39 hand-timed 40 at the EXOS combine last month.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Lane Kiffin’s first Ole Miss offense was shockingly explosive, and Elijah Moore was a big reason why, posting an 86-1193-8 line out of the slot (in only eight games!). Moore is a feisty, darting, crafty, extremely-reliable slot receiver that is open as much as Wal-Mart

What makes him an especially tricky proposition is that he hangs onto every ball he touches (only 10 career drops on 200 catchable targets), even if you absolutely rock him, and he’s filthy after the catch (No. 6 in nation with 18 broken tackles after catch in 2020).

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Two years ago, when Rondale Moore was single-handedly destroying the Big 10 for a 114-1258-12 receiving line (2,215 all-purpose yards),

Rondale kept right on dominating into the first four games of 2019 (29-387-2 receiving line) but -- ominous narrator’s voice -- this is where our story turns. Moore was knocked out for the rest of the season with a hamstring injury. He initially opted-out for 2020, but then opted back-in, but then was held-out at the beginning of the year due to a mysterious “lower-body” injury that was never really explained.

Moore ended up posting a 35-270-0 receiving line (a ghastly 7.7 average) and rushing six times for 32 yards and one TD. Moore’s 2018 film catalogue will give you a better idea of his NFL utility.

When Moore signed with Purdue, we knew, at the very least, that he was an athletic freak. He ran a 4.33 in high school and ranked No. 1 in his class in SPARQ rating.

broke 37 tackles as a true freshman in 2018.

In Moore’s one full season in 2018, 47-of-his-117 catches were screens.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Terrace Marshall

Moore and Marshall were born on the exact same date, June 9, 2000.

In 2019, in LSU’s aforementioned “greatest offense in college football history”, Marshall was the fourth option on the offense, a designated deep threat -- and that was just so patently unfair. He’s gone 25-of-41 on contested targets the past two years, mostly downfield.

LSU forced Marshall inside to the slot, likely to help its young, struggling quarterbacks who had taken over for Joe Burrow.

Marshall did just fine in this role, posting double-digit touchdowns again and averaging over 100 receiving yards per game. But his role in the NFL is as an outside pop-the-top guy. What Marshall struggles with right now is running crisp, convincing routes that don’t end downfield.

he still is jarred by contact due to his thin frame, a quirk press corners will pick on mercilessly until he fortifies himself in the weight room.

Concentration drops also bubbled up in 2020 and must be nipped in the bud ASAP. Marshall dropped only four balls in his first two seasons but flubbed seven of them in 2020. Invariably, almost all of these drops would be categorized “concentration” drops. A la Bateman

Marshall is a 6-foot-3 former five-star recruit with 4.4 wheels that consistently makes plays downfield and had a 46.5% college dominator (92nd percentile) and a 19.2 breakout age (86th percentile) at a blueblood school that won a national title his sophomore year -- those profiles do not grow on trees.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Kadarius Toney

Unlike Rondale Moore, Toney had several years to develop a more-complete game and just never did. In three seasons at Florida heading into this fall, the most yards from scrimmage Toney had ever posted was 500. As mentioned earlier, Toney, ostensibly further along developmentally than Moore, is also a year-and-a-half older.

Toney broke 32 catches on 80 catches the last two seasons, mostly through movement. In 2020, he averaged nearly seven yards after the catch and ranked No. 5 in the country, per PFF, in forced missed tackles.

So much of Toney's production was manufactured. He finished with the second-least yards per route run among the top-40 receivers in terms of receiving yardage in the FBS last season. Only 10 of Toney's 120 career catches, 8.3%, were contested. Much of them came within five yards of the line of scrimmage.

Though it’s true that Toney needs space to corral the ball, he at least doesn't drop the ball (only three on 123 career catchable balls).

Toney will be a slot in the NFL (where he lined up 83% of the time last season).

Toney had four years in college, and he comes with an injury wrap sheet. Injuries limited him to 239 snaps in the 2017 and 2019 seasons combined. His one awesome season came playing next to Kyle Pitts and Trevon Grimes in Dan Mullen system quarterbacked by Kyle Trask.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Tylan Wallace

Wallace chose Oklahoma State and summarily dominated in the Pokes’ wide-open offense for four seasons (93rd percentile college dominator), breaking out as a 19-year-old freshman (84th percentile), with a high-water mark of 1,489 receiving yards in 2018 that led the P5.

His 2019 season was shortened by a torn ACL. Had Wallace not gotten hurt, he would already be in the NFL.

Wallace played the outside WR-Z role in Oklahoma State’s offense, always on the right side. Over his career, Wallace proved to be one of the nation’s best deep-ball artists. He’s a cork out of the bottle off the snap, and he’s got sprinter wheels (reported 4.39 speed at the EXOS combine).

He plays like a dog, aggressive, scrappy and defiant. Wallace seems to enjoy the art of in-air fight fighting about as much as any area of receiver play. Perhaps it’s his background in prep long-jumping, where he was a state finalist in the triple-jump. He’s got a knack for tracking, not tipping off his intention too early, timing his leap, getting both his feet under him, and going airborne.

here’s a reason he led the FBS with 43 contested catches the last three years (and finished fourth in 2020 with 13).

Wallace ranked No. 26, No. 8 and No. 12, respectively, in the nation the past three years in yards per route run.

n 2018, when he was targeted an astounding 149 times, including 50 targets 20-or-more yards downfield. That season, Wallace caught 86 balls but dropped nine, still a troubling number. His catch rate improved greatly over the last two years, with 102 combined catches on 179 targets with seven drops.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

D'Wayne Eskridge

A high school track state champion and Bruce Feldman “Freak’s” alum, Eskridge’s 4.33 wheels remain his calling card (he’s along a weight room beast that boasts a 37.5-inch vertical). Eskridge moonlighted at corner in 2019 but moved back to receiver full-time in 2019.

He’s a big-play waiting to happen that averaged 21.8 yards per catch over his final 74 catches and 27.5 yards per return with a TD as kick returner last year. Because of his play strength limitations, he’s going to have to kick inside to slot at the next level.

Eskridge finished No. 1 in the nation in yards after the catch last year.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Nico Collins

He led the Big 10 with 19.7 yards per catch in 2019 despite having the accuracy-averse Shea Patterson throwing him the ball. Collins needs a runway to get going, but he’s a freight train when he does, and when he gets a made-to-order jump ball, he can go-up-and-get-it with the best of them.

Concentration drops can be an issue, and Collins has trouble separating against high-end corners. He doesn’t have a problem getting off the line, but he needs a runway and several steps to build up to top speed, which is unfortunate, since speed is his special sauce.

The issue with Collins is that he lacks twitch, laboring to both get going and also change directions.

With little burst or twitch, and running with less thunder than he could at his size, Collins is a sitting duck with the ball in his hands if you can get your hands on him (eight broken tackles on 78 career catches).

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown, a true slot, was forced outside in 2020 and also played down.

The things that made St. Brown good in the slot since Day 1 of his true freshman year at USC were his ability to sift through traffic, exceptional footwork and body control, and his ability to hang onto the ball while in traffic and turn upfield, make a guy miss or break a tackle.

St. Brown consistently shows a nice connection with his quarterback, he runs good routes, provides a nice throwing window, and has a good awareness of what he’s doing, whether it’s searching for a soft spot in the zone or tracking the ball in the deep sector. He provided chain-moving reliability and a consistent source of YAC.

What St. Brown never was, unfortunately, was an exceptional athlete. He’s not terribly quick off the line, and he categorically lacks long speed. He also had an issue on the boundary with physical press corners who harassed him with more post-snap contact than he preferred.

77 catches last season for 1042 yards 6 TDs

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Jaelon Darden 5'9 172

He’s a classic Ferrari athlete in the vein of throttling to 100 mph in a blink.

He’ll screech the breaks on at the top of a route and turn around like somebody in the bleachers asked him a question, calm with his shoulders square, and then he’s pivoted back upfield and back up to full speed immediately. Darden breaks ankles in the open field, an extremely gifted mover, able to weave through traffic cutting to make guys while retaining max forward velocity, stop and starting at will.

He’s slight, he’s a slot-only, he doesn’t handle traffic well (no contested catches in 2020)

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Sage Surratt

he's slower, right now, than Big Blue and at least 43 years younger

he opted out in 2020.

Sage is an elite deep-ball receiver who turns 50-50 balls into wins for the offense. Surratt went an incredible 18-for-30 in contested situations in 2019. He tracks the ball like a hunting dog downfield, and he’s a bridesmaid-going-for-a-bouquet specialist at high-pointing in traffic, a hands catcher with a bloated catch radius.

Surratt lacks athleticism. He builds up to top speed, and he’s sluggish changing directions, which neuters his ability in the intermediate game.
Unfortunate, that, because Surratt would otherwise profile as strong in that area as a guy with a big frame, big catch radius, and proven after-the-catch ruggedness. Surratt’s tape shows a a hellacious runner after the catch (17 broken tackles in 2019).

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Cade Johnson 5'9 180

A tough little slot that will run you a precise route and make life hell on the defense after the catch,

He has a really good feel for what he’s doing out of the slot, accelerating off the line quickly, showing a knack for keeping his man at distance with footwork and athleticism, and using his speed to stretch the field.