"Does 'Bama have a QB problem?" and other stupid questions we must answer (SEC Preview thread)

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Tennessee

Last season: Much like arch-rival Florida, Tennessee had a miserable 2017 as they had a 4-win season. Like Florida, Tennessee had to switch coaches as Butch Jones said goodbye.
But UNLIKE Florida, Tennessee had a HELL of a time finding a replacement coach. And by the way, SEC fans: Wasn't that whole thing just funny to see? It was like, "Hey, it's Greg Schiano! No wait, it's gonna be Peyton Manning?! Sweet! Wait, he's only a consultant? Hey, Phillp Fulmer's coming back! Wait, he's only the new AD? Slow down!!"

2018 X-factor: New head coach Jeremy Platt- Thankfully, that whole mess was settled when the Vols landed Alabama's defensive coordinator. How quickly can Jeremy clean up this organizational mess in Knoxville? Let's find out!

Bad news: It'll take some time, however; the offense could be hot garbage again with a shaky O-line and uncertainty at QB. The defense might struggle to adjust to a new 3-4 scheme...

Good news: ...but it does have some good individual pieces; Nigel Warrior and Johnathan Kongbo are ones to watch. And if the O-line holds it together, the Vols run-game could be quite potent.

Key games:

Old-stand-by's:
9/22 vs. Florida (Florida will be having some growing pains as well, so I like the Vols's chances to beat the Gators for the 2nd time in 3 years.)
10/20 vs. Alabama (Here, Jeremy will get a visit from his old pal Nick Saban... knowing full well that he's 11-0 all-time against the Vols.)
11/10 vs. Kentucky (Okay, Tennessee. I know you're still mad over me picking the Wildcats to beat you last year. But let's hope that you can beat them back this time around, OK?)
11/24 @ Vanderbilt (The Commodores has won 4 of their last 6 against Tennessee. That trend must stop. NOW!)
Other big games:
9/1 vs. West Virginia [in Charlotte] (We know that West Virginia will score points in the 2018 season. Question is, can the Vols keep up with them here in Charlotte?)
11/17 vs. Missouri (If the Vols aren't careful, they could lose a shot at a bowl game here.)

Bottom line: Combine concerns about that Vols offense with a new coaching staff, and it does NOT look good for Tennessee in 2018. To me, the Volunteer fans will have to be patient and hope that this rebuilding phase doesn't last too long. 6 wins might be their ceiling in Jeremy Platt's 1st year.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Mississippi

Preview segment: The Ole Miss Rebels

Last season: After a messy 2016 where Ole Miss's little joyride went down the tubes, fans were just hoping for some good news while the school sits through NCAA probation. And lo and behold, they found it when Jordan Ta'amu stepped in late in the 2017 season to lead the Rebels to wins in 3 of their final 4 games. All while interim coach Matt Luke did a good enough job for the school to remove that "interim" tag from his name.

Good news: Most of the big players in Ole Miss's "Air Raid" attack will return, including a experienced O-line and proud WR's. Expect points galore.

Bad news: This defense might not be any better than last year's unit (which ranked 115th overall). Not because of Matt Luke, mind you, but it's because recruiting is hurting due to those NCAA sanctions... and the players that Ole Miss are bringing in might not help matters. The kicking game might be a problem, too.

Key games:

Old stand-by's:
9/29 @ LSU (Another edition of the "Battle of Magnolia Lane" between the Rebels and Tigers. And Ole Miss could have a very good record by the time they visit Baton Rouge.)
10/13 vs. Arkansas [From Little Rock] (Good news: The last 3 installments of this series had been AMAZING. Bad news: Arkansas has won all 3 of those game. Can Matt Luke fix that problem?)
11/22 vs. Mississippi State (Had Ole Miss lost that "Egg Bowl" to the Bulldogs last year, Matt Luke might not be here in Oxford right now.)
Other key games:
9/1 vs. Texas Tech {From Houston} (This one looks fun! High-flying Ole Miss vs. defense-minded Texas Tech... Wait. That just doesn't sound right.)
9/15 vs. Alabama (As I said earlier, Ole Miss will get a lot of points through the passing game... which is something that mighty Alabama might have trouble stopping this year.)

Bottom line: Contrary to what some people on this thread thinks, Ole Miss will NOT be bowling in 2018. But with that potent offense, SEC teams are gonna pay if they underestimate the Rebels. Now if the Rebels defense can actually STOP some people, then MAYBE Ole Miss could get 6 wins again.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Vanderbilt

Preview segment: The Vanderbilt Commodores

Last season: Lindy's magazine rated Vanderbilt's 2017 season as "poor", despite going 5-7 and beating Tennessee again. Then again, the 'Dores have improved to such an extent nowadays that they're expecting bowl games almost every year now. Will they do it this year? Doesn't look like it.

Good news: QB Kyle Shurmur is back for one more year, and it could be a great one as he has a good O-line and his top WR Kalija Lipscomb coming back too. And yes, Ralph Webb is gone, but Vanderbilt's run game might be even better in 2018.

Bad news: Aside from Lipscomb, no other WR has emerged yet as a playmaker. The special teams need a major reboot, and Vandy's D-line might get picked on by nearly everyone in the mighty SEC.

2018 X-factor: The middle of Vanderbilt's schedule- From October 6th to November 10th, life will not be easy for the 'Dores as they'll have 5 hard games in that span. 4 of them are on the road [Georgia, Missouri, Kentucky, and Arkansas], and the only home game they have is against Florida.

Key games:

Old stand-by's:
11/17 vs. Ole Miss (If Vandy's defense is on task here, they'll have a chance to stop a Ole Miss team that may be hurting by this point.)
11/24 vs. Tennessee (As I said yesterday, Vandy has won 4 of the last 6 against in-state bully Tennessee. People in Nashville will be very happy if that trend somehow continues.)
Other big games:
9/15 @ Notre Dame (This is only the 3rd-ever meeting between the two schools, with Notre Dame winning the other 2 installments [in '95 and '96].)
9/22 vs. South Carolina (Excluding the Tennessee game, the closest that Vandy got to winning an SEC game in 2017 was against the Gamecocks.)
10/20 @ Kentucky (This one is right in the middle of that awful road trip for the 'Dores, and it's maybe the only winnable one.)

Bottom line: On offense, Vanderbilt seems ready to roll. Everywhere else, however, needs a LOT of work to fix. So in my mind, ANY shot that Vandy has at a bowl in 2018 will depend on how well they survive that little road trip in October.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Texas A&M

Preview segment: The Texas A&M Aggies

Last season: So Kevin Sumlin finally got the boot after a 7-6 season. ...I guess with all the money they invested in their football program since joining the SEC, the fans just got sick and tired of all the ups and downs that the team went through. And 2017 was no exception. See, the highs of scaring Alabama and beating South Carolina and Florida was completely buried by these lows; a HUGE blown lead against UCLA, yet another November swoon, and giving up 55 points against Wake Forest(!) in their bowl game.

Good news: The school scored a MAJOR hire in new head coach Jimbo Fisher, and he inherits 2 QB's who can play and strong running backs which he intends to use.

Bad news: For A&M, it's all about the big play. They have to fix that miserable O-line (so that A&M can make big plays), and get the defense to play just a LITTLE less aggressively (so that A&M can stop giving up big plays).

2018 X-factor: The TE position- Tight-ends weren't really existent at A&M when Kevin Sumlin was coach. But Jimbo looks to use that position more and more this season. And already it's working; TE Jace Sternberger had 8 catches for 147 yards in the spring game!

Key games:

Old stand-by's:
9/29 vs. Arkansas [in Arlington, TX] (A&M will most likely be 2-2 by the time their annual fight with Arkansas takes place. Hopefully A&M's O-line will be healthy enough to handle this.)
11/3 @ Auburn (A&M loses every time they host Auburn, and they win every time they visit Auburn. They lost in College Station last year, so guess what's gonna happen this time?)
11/24 vs. LSU (The reboot of this old rivalry isn't going the way A&M fans wanted it to go; LSU has won the last 7 meetings.)
Other big games:
9/8 vs. Clemson (Do you know that Kyle Field can fit in over 102,000 people? A&M's offense might need all of those people to help them stop Clemson's defense.)
10/27 @ Mississippi State (Blood will flow in this one; Mississippi State had ruined A&M's hopes and dreams 3 out of the last 4 years, and last year they beat A&M 35-14 last year in College Station.)

Bottom line: Give the A&M brass a little bit of credit; they're not screaming for a SEC title just yet as they wait for good ol' Jimbo to fix the roster. All they want A&M to do in 2018 is to go to a bowl, upset 1 or 2 big-shots along the way, and above all else NO MORE LATE-SEASON SWOONS!

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Missouri

Preview segment: The Missouri Tigers

Last season: It didn't look for Missouri coach Barry Odom at first; the Tigers started 1-5 with a defense that sucked. How bad was it? Their only win in those first 6 games was to FCS Missouri State... and even then they gave up 43 points.
But then, a breakthrough! QB Drew Lock got more help from his friends on offense, the defense played... well not so badly, and soon Missouri had a winning season and a contract extension for Odom. Now in 2018, can they return themselves to the legit SEC threat that they were in 2013 and 2014?

Good news: Well, let's see... Drew Lock is back and so are his 2 favorite targets Emanuel Hall and TE Albert Okwuegbuham. Also back are all 5 starters from 2017's O-line. The defense DOES have some depth...

Bad news: ...but it needs to get better; Missouri's pass defense in 2017 was AWFUL.

Key games:

Old stand-by's:
11/3 @ Florida (Since joining the SEC, Missouri has split the bit with Florida over their previous 6 meetings.)
11/24 vs. Arkansas (I still think this "Battle Line Rivalry" thing is a joke. However, the last 2 installments had been pretty exciting. So... maybe it WILL be a true rivalry in time!)
Other key games:
9/15 @ Purdue (This one's a lot more important to Missouri than at first glance. Purdue humiliated the Tigers last year in Columbia, and it's imperative that Missouri extracts revenge for that insult. If they do...)
9/22 vs. Georgia (...it'll be a BIG confidence boost for the Tigers defense. Which is what they'll need to stop mighty Georgia in this big SEC East matchup.)
10/6 @ South Carolina (This might decide the runner-up spot in the East division.)

Bottom line: Most of the college football media will treat this Missouri team (with a strong offense and a porous defense) as a cute little diversion in the rugged SEC; just a cute school fighting for a bowl berth. Thing is, Barry Odom wants his team to be a serious contender in the East division. But that's NOT gonna happen if their defense doesn't step up it's game.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Georgia

Preview segment: The Georgia Bulldogs

Last season: Honestly, you guys, I was treating Georgia in 2017 much like Clemson in 2015. I knew that the team had some talent, but we were all just waiting for this perennial underachiever to fall on it's @$$.
Well, we waited... and waited... and waited... but thanks to the emergence of a strong defense and QB Jake Fromm (we already knew about Georgia's good running game) that didn't happen. In fact, Georgia went on to win the entire SEC, sent Oklahoma and Baker Mayfield packing in that epic Rose Bowl, and were SO DAMN close to stopping Alabama in the national title game. Just like Clemson in 2015.
...Wait. Didn't Clemson go on to win the national title next season? Uh oh!

2018 X-factor: RB D'Andre Swift- The great Nick Chubb is gone. So is Sony Michel. And yet, almost nobody on the Georgia football team looks concerned about those departures. That's because D'Andre Swift had flashes of brilliance as the 3rd-string running back... as a freshmen. How will D'Andre cope with being Georgia's featured back in 2018?

Good news: Thankfully for D'Andre, Jake Fromm is back. So are some mighty WR's and a BIG offensive line. The kicking game is set as well; Rodrigo Blankenship gave Georgia a chance to win that national title game in OT. And the defense might have the chance to be in the Top 10 again.

Bad news: I said MIGHT, because the depth on that unit is not great. Neither is the experience; the linebacker group is of particular concern.

Key games:

Old stand-by's:
9/8 @ South Carolina (Georgia has a LOT of "old stand-by" games, so please bear with me. The first one comes VERY early, as the Bulldogs will face a stiff test from probably their biggest threat in the SEC East.)
10/27 vs. Florida [in Jacksonville] (The mighty CFB writer Phil Steele has pegged Florida as his "most improved team of 2018" in his latest magazine. As if Georgia needs any more motivation for this latest installment of this rivalry.)
11/10 vs. Auburn (Both Jarrett Stidham and Jake Fromm got a win over the other in 2017. It's not likely that Georgia and Auburn will fight each other twice this season, but it's a possibility.)
11/24 vs. Georgia Tech (These 2 bitter rivals have split their last 4 meetings.)
Other key games:
9/22 @ Missouri (If South Carolina can't scare the Bulldogs in the East, maybe high-flying Missouri can do it.)
10/13 @ LSU (LSU might be down this season, but it'll still be no fun to play them in "Death Valley".)

Bottom line: It's official: Kirby Smart knows what he's doing. He's brought Georgia's recruiting numbers into the stratosphere, and now the Bulldogs are the BIG favorite to repeat as SEC East champs. He's even got everyone in Athens believing that "this is the year" for a national title.
However! If Georgia loses either of those 2 early games against South Carolina or Missouri, they may have to put those CFP dreams on hold.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

South Carolina

Preview segment: The South Carolina Gamecocks

Last season: So what if the Gamecock offense stunk up the joint again? Will Muschamp has his team on a roll as South Carolina went 9-4 with a Outback Bowl win. And now with a sizable piece of that team coming back, the perfume known as "optimism" is sweeping through the South Carolina campus.

2018 X-factor: The new offensive coordinator- The Gamecocks finished 108th in total offense last year. So of course, Muschamp had to find a new play caller, and now Bryan McClendon is charged with charging up this offense. Bryan has a up-tempo approach that should equal more points... we hope.

Bad news: Priority #1 for Bryan in his quest to fire up the offense: Find a solid running back to carry the ball. And the RB group has 4 juniors that had under-performed in the past. On defense, the Gamecocks are gonna REALLY miss team leader Skai Moore and 3 starters on the secondary.

Good news: However, maybe T.J. Brunson can be that calming force at linebacker that USC needs. And let's not fool ourselves here; South Carolina's offense has the potential for a HUGE improvement with Jake Bentley at QB, a veteran O-line, and Deebo Samuel at WR.

Key games:

Old stand-by's:
9/8 vs. Georgia (South Carolina's offense had better be ready to step up right away, because Georgia's defense [at least in the beginning of the season] could be a bit vulnerable.)
11/10 @ Florida (Since the beginning of this decade, South Carolina has taken 5 out of 8 away from the Gators in this series.)
11/24 @ Clemson (This once-exciting series has tempered off a bit over the last 2 years. Ball's in your court, Muschamp!)
Other key games:
10/6 vs. Missouri (See my Missouri preview.)
10/13 vs. Texas A&M (Quite a tough loss South Carolina suffered in College Station last year... and it ended up costing USC a year-end national ranking.)

Bottom line: The schedule's doesn't look too bad, so I think South Carolina has the potential to get 10 wins in 2018. And if all goes well, they might even see a "New Year's Six" bowl on the horizon.
HOWEVER! That wild dream will only come true IF the Gamecocks offense take a big step forward... enough to stun either Georgia or Clemson. The eyes of Columbia, South Carolina will be trained on Muschamp and McClendon coming this fall...

(P.S.: Florida and Tennessee aren't gonna be down for too long, so South Carolina, you better strike and FAST.)

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Arkansas

The last preview segment for the SEC: The Arkansas Razorbacks

Last season: ...Well, shoot. I got too excited and used up all the good teams like Alabama and Georgia too early. So now to wrap up the SEC, I'm stuck with the down-trodden Arkansas Razorbacks, who now has a new coach after a rough 4-8 season.

Good news: New head coach Chad Morris has injected new energy into the program, and he inherits a defense with some good players left over from 2017.

Bad news: Let's see... A new offense to learn, no more Austin Allen at quarterback, plus a shaky O-line to deal with. That doesn't bode well for Arkansas in the brutal SEC West.

Key games:

Old stand-by's:
9/29 vs. Texas A&M [in Arlington] (Don't give up on beating the Aggies, Arkansas! You almost got them in OT last year!)
10/13 vs. Ole Miss [in Little Rock] (If Arkansas has a stable QB going by this time, I like their chances to beat the rival Rebels for the 5th straight year.)
11/10 vs. LSU (Ah, yes. The annual "Battle For the Golden Boot".)
Other key games:
9/22 @ Auburn (The Razorbacks should be 3-0 entering this rough-looking SEC opener.)
11/24 @ Missouri (Arkansas might be fighting for a bowl berth in this contest.)

Bottom line: There's no other way to say it; Arkansas will be in "wait-and-see" mode in 2018. Which is NOT a great place to be in the SEC West, and certainly doesn't bode well for Chad Morris's chances to go bowling in his 1st year on the job.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

SEC Predictions

...Man. I left it all out there on those posts. So, I guess all that's left to do is give you my SEC picks:

SEC East:
1. Georgia ("New Year's Six" bowl, maybe Playoff)
2. South Carolina
3. Missouri
4. Florida
5. Tennessee
6. Kentucky
7. Vanderbilt

SEC West:
1. Auburn (Conference champs, maybe Playoff)
2. Alabama ("New Year's Six" bowl)
3. Mississippi State [via tiebreaker]
4. LSU
5. Texas A&M
6. Ole Miss
7. Arkansas

...And I'm done! By the way, starting tomorrow I'll have a thread going about the mighty Big 10. Here's hoping I don't get bored and start ranting about "FLCL: Progressive", but with Illinois over there I doubt it.