Simulating the 2018 SEC. Weeks 1-3

[VFL1995]

With the season right around the corner and me being a stats geek and going through all the predictions on the internet, I thought it would be fun to simulate the entire 2018 SEC season.


I got this idea from r/CFB. I'm sure a lot of you guys on here know exactly what I'm talking about. But for those of you that don't, for each week of games Reddit users vote for the winner of each game. So for example if 75% of people picked West Virginia to beat Tennessee I would then use a random number generator between 1-1000, and if the random number is <750 then WVU is the winner but if the number is >750 then Tennessee pulls the upset. Also, the closer the number is to the dividing line also determines how close the games was. For example, if the integer was 25, West Virginia would have destroyed Tennessee whereas if the integer was 751, Tennessee would have squeaked by in a nail-biter.


But instead of getting people to vote, I'm using Bill Connelly's 2018 win probabilities for each team which can be found here: Bill Connelly's 130-team preview, 2018 - SBNation.com


Let's get started with Weeks 1,2&3..


Thursday, August 30

Northwestern State @ Texas A&M-It's the first SEC football game of the season and Texas A&M dominates from beginning to end, Jimbo Fisher is able to give his backups some quality playing time and experience. Texas A&M wins 45-17


Saturday, September 1

Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss-Jordan Ta'amu has a huge day and Texas Tech doesn't have an answer. Ole Miss wins soundly


Austin Peay @ Georgia-Jake Fromm throws 4 TD passes and Kirby Smart pulls his starters midway through the 3rd quarter. Georgia dominates and can start preparing for South Carolina


West Virginia vs. Tennessee-Jeremy Pruitt's first game as head coach is a loss. But there are some bright spots as Tennessee keeps it closer than a lot of people thought they would. Ty Chandler has a good day on the ground and runs for over 100 yards but that isn't enough and they lose by 12


Washington vs. Auburn-In probably the most anticipated game of the weekend Washington is able to put away Auburn late after an Auburn fumble on the Huskies 8 yard line


Eastern Illinois @ Arkansas-The Hogs barely get Chad Morris his first win as Head Coach. Arkansas plays sloppy the entire game and Eastern Illinois goes punch for punch basically the entire game but Arkansas gets a TD and a FG to put the game away late


Charleston Southern @ Florida-Florida's offense doesn't click at all in their first game of the season and Charleston Southern keeps it respectable as Florida only wins 29-14


Louisville vs. Alabama-Alabama gets the win but not very easily and only win 31-23. Tua Tagovailoa has an up and down day, he throws for 2 TD's but also has 2 INT's


Miami vs. LSU-In a very defensive game LSU is able to pull the upset with a late TD run from Nick Brossette.



Week 2:


Saturday, September 8


Mississippi State(1-0) @ Kansas State-Kansas State gives MSU all they can handle but the Bulldogs escape with a 6 point win


Arkansas State @ Alabama(1-0)-The Tide roll, what else is new


Georgia(1-0) @ South Carolina(1-0)-In an early season game that could have an impact on the SEC East it's Georgia that comes away with the win. DeAndre Swift balls out and Georgia doesn't trail the entire game


Clemson @ Texas A&M(1-0)-Kyle Field is rocking for this one. For the first half the Aggies are playing better and leading at halftime but Clemson plays like a different team in the 2nd half and pulls away to win by 17


Wyoming @ Missouri(1-0)-In a surprisingly close game all the way through, Missouri is able to seal the game with a 39 yard TD pass to win by 9 points


Kentucky(1-0) @ Florida(1-0)-In another nail biter game between these 2 teams Kentucky is FINALLY able to get a win over the Gators and break the streak. Benny Snell has a big day on the ground and the Florida offense isn't able to do enough to get the victory. Some Florida fans are already calling for Mullens head after the way the team has performed in the first 2 weeks of the season



Week 3:


Saturday, September 15

Murray State @ Kentucky(2-0)-No letdown for the Wildcats after that big win over Florida and they improve to 3-0


UTEP @ Tennessee(1-1)-The Vols come out flat and are trailing 14-10 in the 2nd quarter but Pruitt is seen on the sideline raising hell to his team and the Vols kick it into gear and run away with the game


LSU(2-0) @ Auburn(1-1)-LSU is flying high after beating their second Top 15 opponent in the first 3 weeks of the season. LSU fans are talking about how it's finally the year they're gonna beat Bama


Colorado State @ Florida(1-1)-The Gators look like a rejuvenated football team and beat the Rams without any issues


North Texas @ Arkansas(2-0)-Arkansas has their annual shit the bed game against a lowly team and the Mean Green are able to pull the upset!


Alabama(2-0) @ Ole Miss(2-0)-It's a close game up until the 3rd quarter but Damien Harris gets a pair of rushing TD's and the Tide defense recovers an Ole Miss fumble in the endzone to win 41-17


Missouri(2-0) @ Purdue-It's a back and forth game all 4 quarters with both offenses making their share of big plays. With 17 seconds left in the game, Purdue is ahead 35-28 but a Missouri TD pass ties the game up and sends it to OT. The Tigers eventually prevail and win 41-38


SEC Standings after Week 3:
West:

1. Alabama 3-0(1-0)
2. LSU 3-0(1-0)
3. Mississippi State 3-0
4. Texas A&M 2-1
5. Arkansas 2-1
6. Ole Miss 2-1(0-1)
7. Auburn 1-2(0-1)

East:

1. Georgia 3-0(1-0)
2. Kentucky 3-0(1-0)
3. Missouri 3-0
4. Vanderbilt 2-1
5. Tennessee 2-1
6. South Carolina 2-1(0-1)
7. Florida 2-1(0-1)

 

[TigerBait1971]

Miami vs. LSU-In a very defensive game LSU is able to pull the upset with a late TD run from Nick Brossette.

BOOM, BITCHES!

 

[cwalke3408]

Georgia(1-0) @ South Carolina(1-0)-In an early season game that could have an impact on the SEC East it's Georgia that comes away with the win. DeAndre Swift balls out and Georgia doesn't trail the entire game

A game not to sleep on