Dak wants big contract

[Teddyg]

I don't know that I would call Blount that big of an upgrade. He's a short yardage plodder who can pick up tough yards, but there's a reason he's never been a true bellcow. He only had 2 TDs for them in 2017. He's a one-trick pony like Brandon Jacobs. Also, Jeffrey and Smith weren't good in 2017. Ertz was the real weapon. Jeffrey caught less than half of his targets, and Jeffrey and Smith combined to catch 93 balls for 1219 yards. Jeffrey had good TD production at 9, but Smith was irrelevant in this metric.

You sort of illustrated my point with your second paragraph. Dak was a product of Zeke, and always has been IMO. He's a decent QB, but he's not elite, which is why I think it's foolish to pay him like he is. We've seen this sort of thing backfire for teams in the past. I've said in either this thread or another that I would like to see Dallas be competing for Super Bowls. The NFL is more exciting when the blue bloods are good. Objectively, though, Dak just isn't an elite QB who is going to be able to carry his team to a Super Bowl.

In regards to Blount, agree but meant to include the trade for Ajayi giving them a nice 1-2 punch at the RB position, adding all these weapons helped propel them and helped Wentz have the season he had.

As for WR, Ertz was able to break out due to the upgrade at WR position, teams had to respect them and gave more space for Ertz to accomplish what he did, along with Trey Burton.

In regards to Dak and Zeke, if Zeke was on eagles do you think Wentz would be throwing 35 TD passes a year? No when you have a special talent like Zeke and he is scoring 10-15 TDs a year, takes away from QB totals. Dak will be consistent with getting 30 TDs per year 23-25 passing and 5-7 rushing and is a leader of this team. HE also has led them to 2 division titles in 3 years and numerous 4th quarter comebacks. I'm not saying he is elite, but he is a very good QB who has upside and can lead them to a SB. As for his contract, yes he deserves getting in the $25-28 million APY range.

 

[Teddyg]

I think Dak is closer to top 10 than he is the bottom 10. Chris Canty explained it best when he said that Dak is not the type of QB that can elevate the play of those around him. In all fairness that is an elite QB and he is not there. At the same time neither is Wentz or Goff but they have shown measurable that lead many to believe they can get there. Carson Wentz not even remotely close to being healthy actually played well and his numbers show it. He still came back too soon.

I think people here are stuck on whether Dak is elite or not. Well he is not elite. He is a good young QB with plenty of upside. Only morons like Skip Bayless believes Dak is better than and deserves Russell Wilson money.

Here is the thing....The Cowboys are going to have to overpay to keep Dak. That is a given because if they do not they are fucked at the QB position. Stephen Jones can talk team friendly deal all he want but the reality is they are still going to have to pay him.

Dak's value is the $23-$25 mil range but he will more than likely be paid $25-$28 mil.

As for overpaying Dak, all teams overpay for the QB position, eagles will also with Wentz because if not, they are fucked. When SJ talked about a cap friendly deal, it's not the money, it's the structure. Look at DLaw contract, it's designed so that after year 3 if not working out Dallas can release him with a very manageable dead cap hit

 

[Across The Field]

In regards to Blount, agree but meant to include the trade for Ajayi giving them a nice 1-2 punch at the RB position, adding all these weapons helped propel them and helped Wentz have the season he had.

As for WR, Ertz was able to break out due to the upgrade at WR position, teams had to respect them and gave more space for Ertz to accomplish what he did, along with Trey Burton.

In regards to Dak and Zeke, if Zeke was on eagles do you think Wentz would be throwing 35 TD passes a year? No when you have a special talent like Zeke and he is scoring 10-15 TDs a year, takes away from QB totals. Dak will be consistent with getting 30 TDs per year 23-25 passing and 5-7 rushing and is a leader of this team. HE also has led them to 2 division titles in 3 years and numerous 4th quarter comebacks. I'm not saying he is elite, but he is a very good QB who has upside and can lead them to a SB. As for his contract, yes he deserves getting in the $25-28 million APY range.

Ajayi also wasn't really a factor, with only 70 carries in 7 games on the season. On paper you'd think it's a good 1-2 punch, but they only combined for 1174 yards on the season. They were a true committee that year. I think what won them the SB that year was more their defense and OL, both of which were extremely good. The offensive weapons were important, but nowhere near what the D and OL were.

Ertz is an elite TE. Adding Alshon helped, but he really worked well with Wentz and was the clear top option in the receiving game. It's why I think Dallas had to go after a top TE in the draft this year, even if it means trading back up into the 1st.

If Zeke was on the Eagles, yes Wentz would easily hit 35 TDs if he was actually healthy for close to a full season. If he had Zeke, that would be one of the 3 most explosive offenses in the NFL, maybe even the top offense. You'd have to think Zeke would probably be getting at least 5-7 TD catches himself. Ertz, Alshon, and Agholor could easily combine for another 25, and there's be a handful sprinkled in to other players.

You might be right about Dak. If he is getting over 30 combined TDs a year and keeping his INT total low, that would be fantastic. However he's still yet to hit 30 combined TDs. Thankfully he's on a really good team overall, especially with Amari out there now. If he comes in this year and they win 12 games with him going for ~4,000 yards, 32-35 total TDs and ~10-12 INTs, sure, pay him $28m. Just based on his last two years, I can't see him being worth that kind of money yet.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

if Zeke was on eagles do you think Wentz would be throwing 35 TD passes a year?

He might. I heard Wentz got in trouble for changing plays instead of doing what the Coaches were wanting.
Which was a point why Foles would do better when in game. He stuck to the plan.
Stats arent everything

 

[jarntt]

From a strictly pass-blocking efficiency metric, Dallas was 22nd in the NFL. That's not good, understandable. It's also not close to the worst. In fact, the difference between the #22 pass pro efficiency score (Dallas) and #12 was 1.7 points. Meanwhile, the difference from #22 to #26 was almost 3 points. So there's a massive gap between Dallas and the bottom end of the league. Yet he still took the 2nd most sacks in the NFL. That's my point. You understate his inability to know when to get rid of the ball and avoid a sack. It isn't like all 56 sacks were guys getting to him within 2 seconds of the snap. He has to improve in this area.

You might be right about this not being different from 2016, but that 2016 Dallas OL was in the conversation among the best OLs ever put together. If that's what Dak needs to put together top 10 quality metrics, then you simply don't have a top 10 QB.

You said he took twice as many sacks as in 2016 inferring it as part of your proof that he regressed. He did not regress and there were more sacks against because the line was much worse as I said over and over. At least now you have gone from top 15 to #22. Now add back in how many sacks Dak avoided and they drop even further. Now of course those ratings all remain BS and totally arbitrary. Here's one where they are #28: 2018 OFFENSIVE LINES | Football Outsiders

As far as him needing to improve, I brought that up multiple times already. Dak holds the ball too long at time sand doesn't anticipate the WR that is about to come open and he also gets hung up on who he is "supposed to throw it to" and misses other guys that come open. Wentz needs to improve here as well. He too holds the ball too long, too often and doesn't get rid of it. It's kind of a young QB thing in general.

 

[PhillyGreen]

As for overpaying Dak, all teams overpay for the QB position, eagles will also with Wentz because if not, they are fucked. When SJ talked about a cap friendly deal, it's not the money, it's the structure. Look at DLaw contract, it's designed so that after year 3 if not working out Dallas can release him with a very manageable dead cap hit

That is true....hell....the Seahawks overpaid Wilson. It is the way of the NFL. Overpay the QB. The reasons why QB's have so much leverage is because it is so hard to get a franchise QB.

 

[PhillyGreen]

In regards to Dak and Zeke, if Zeke was on eagles do you think Wentz would be throwing 35 TD passes a year? No when you have a special talent like Zeke and he is scoring 10-15 TDs a year, takes away from QB totals. .

Yes he would. Zeke is a transcending back and he changes how a defense will play against you. Todd Gurley had 17 TD's last year and Goff still threw for 35 TD's. The Saints had 26 total rushing TD's last with their RBBC and Brees had 32 TD's. The top rushing TD teams had between 15-20 rushing TD's last year. Amongst those teams where Brady, Mahomes, Roethlesberger and Rivers as well. An elite QB is going to get 30-40 TD's if they have a back like Zeke and that team more than likely be top 3 in scoring offense.

 

[jarntt]

It's not a question of if he's elite, but rather should be get paid like he's elite. I think $23m is very fair, as that would put him on the cusp of the top 10, which is optimistically where he's at right now.

That said, they'll have Zeke next year, they'll have Amari next year, and my guess is they address WR/TE heavily in the draft, even with Witten back. I think they'd do well to try and move into the 1st round and grab Noah Fant in the back third of the round, as he could be a perfect fit for Dak and the offense. If they have a decent supporting cast for him and he's still throwing 22-23 TD passes and sitting around the middle of the pack in other metrics, how can you justify paying him upwards of $28m?

Again you appear to have not follow how contracts work. Every year they go up a shit load. Whoever gets a contract this year will get way more than comparable players and the same will happen next year. Your comment sounded as if you don't understand that $23M has very little to do with top 10 talent ("would put him on the cusp of the top 10, which is optimistically where he's at right now"). Foles just got that and he isn't even a starter.

Here are the 12 QBs making $22M or more. Are these the 12 best QBs in the league??? Are some even close?
RW, Rodgers, Ryan, Cousins, Garoppollo, Stafford, Carr, Brees, Luck, Smith, Flacco and Foles.
So 5 of the top 12 paid QBs are top 10 QBs. Until you grasp the way salaries and QB salaries in particular are driven more by timing than talent you just aren't going to be close in your estimates or make any sense with your comments.

 

[PhillyGreen]

Here are the 12 QBs making $22M or more. Are these the 12 best QBs in the league??? Are some even close?
RW, Rodgers, Ryan, Cousins, Garoppollo, Stafford, Carr, Brees, Luck, Smith, Flacco and Foles.
So 5 of the top 12 paid QBs are top 10 QBs. Until you grasp the way salaries and QB salaries in particular are driven more by timing than talent you just aren't going to be close in your estimates or make any sense with your comments.

Garoppolo, Foles, Flacco, Smith and Carr are not top 12 QB's IMO. Yet they are getting paid stupid money. Carr showed potential though when he signed his deal and has regressed since.

 

[Across The Field]

You said he took twice as many sacks as in 2016 inferring it as part of your proof that he regressed. He did not regress and there were more sacks against because the line was much worse as I said over and over. At least now you have gone from top 15 to #22. Now add back in how many sacks Dak avoided and they drop even further. Now of course those ratings all remain BS and totally arbitrary. Here's one where they are #28: 2018 OFFENSIVE LINES | Football Outsiders

As far as him needing to improve, I brought that up multiple times already. Dak holds the ball too long at time sand doesn't anticipate the WR that is about to come open and he also gets hung up on who he is "supposed to throw it to" and misses other guys that come open. Wentz needs to improve here as well. He too holds the ball too long, too often and doesn't get rid of it. It's kind of a young QB thing in general.

That link you provided is predicated solely on sack rate, which doesn't reflect how many sacks were taken due to his indecisiveness, which is one of his biggest weaknessess right now. I don't disagree that this is an issue with a lot of young QBs.

Overall, Dallas was a top 15 line last year when incorporating all aspects of the OL function, but they were 22nd in pass pro efficiency.

 

[Across The Field]

Again you appear to have not follow how contracts work. Every year they go up a shit load. Whoever gets a contract this year will get way more than comparable players and the same will happen next year. Your comment sounded as if you don't understand that $23M has very little to do with top 10 talent ("would put him on the cusp of the top 10, which is optimistically where he's at right now"). Foles just got that and he isn't even a starter.

Here are the 12 QBs making $22M or more. Are these the 12 best QBs in the league??? Are some even close?
RW, Rodgers, Ryan, Cousins, Garoppollo, Stafford, Carr, Brees, Luck, Smith, Flacco and Foles.
So 5 of the top 12 paid QBs are top 10 QBs. Until you grasp the way salaries and QB salaries in particular are driven more by timing than talent you just aren't going to be close in your estimates or make any sense with your comments.

Jesus Christ, how do you still not understand that this isn't and has never been about what he could get, but what he deserves? I've never said there's no way he won't get $28m, I'm saying he hasn't earned it, which he hasn't. Of those QBs you list, I would say these ones are more deserving of that money than Dak: RW, Rodgers, Ryan, Cousins, Carr, Brees, Luck, Foles.

Alex Smith is a good comparison for the type of QB Dak is: not a playmaker with his arm, but is athletic and can manage a game and won't do too many things to lose. I think Dak is better than Smith overall, but very similar players. Smith is at $23.5m per year with his deal from Washington, and that was too much. He should've been closer to maybe $20m, so I'd put a fair salary for Dak right around $23m. Since Smith is at $23.5m, I'd say a reasonable number for Dak (not necessarily deserving) would be around $25-25.5m. Will he get more? Probably. Is he worthy of being paid as a top 10 QB in the NFL right now? No.

 

[jarntt]

Jesus Christ, how do you still not understand that this isn't and has never been about what he could get, but what he deserves? I've never said there's no way he won't get $28m, I'm saying he hasn't earned it, which he hasn't. Of those QBs you list, I would say these ones are more deserving of that money than Dak: RW, Rodgers, Ryan, Cousins, Carr, Brees, Luck, Foles.

Alex Smith is a good comparison for the type of QB Dak is: not a playmaker with his arm, but is athletic and can manage a game and won't do too many things to lose. I think Dak is better than Smith overall, but very similar players. Smith is at $23.5m per year with his deal from Washington, and that was too much. He should've been closer to maybe $20m, so I'd put a fair salary for Dak right around $23m. Since Smith is at $23.5m, I'd say a reasonable number for Dak (not necessarily deserving) would be around $25-25.5m. Will he get more? Probably. Is he worthy of being paid as a top 10 QB in the NFL right now? No.

Jesus Christ how do you still not understand that this is exactly what point I'm making. He DESERVES to get way more than you keep saying he deserves because that's how it works. They don't redo every QB contract every year. You can't base what he deserves based on what some comparable QB got 3 years ago or a "better QB got 2 years ago. You leap frog everyone in your range and a bunch above you and then they leap frog you again in another year or two. It's simple.


Smith signed last year and Dak is absolutely better than Smith and your assumption that Carr and Foles deserve more pretty much closes you out and shuts the door on the topic. You should have led with that so that I could have just chuckled and moved on knowing that was how your QB ratings work...

 

[Across The Field]

Garoppolo, Foles, Flacco, Smith and Carr are not top 12 QB's IMO. Yet they are getting paid stupid money. Carr showed potential though when he signed his deal and has regressed since.

I'd love to see Carr on an even remotely coherent team. He's had shit at basically every skill position for the last two years in Oakland, and he played behind a worse OL in terms of pass pro than Dak did.

 

[jarntt]

I'd love to see Carr on an even remotely coherent team. He's had shit at basically every skill position for the last two years in Oakland, and he played behind a worse OL in terms of pass pro than Dak did.

Skill position, huh? Interesting because Cooper was Dak's only good receiving option and he had him for half a year and Carr had him for a year and a half of the last two years.

 

[Across The Field]

Jesus Christ how do you still not understand that this is exactly what point I'm making. He DESERVES to get way more than you keep saying he deserves because that's how it works. They don't redo every QB contract every year. You can't base what he deserves based on what some comparable QB got 3 years ago or a "better QB got 2 years ago. You leap frog everyone in your range and a bunch above you and then they leap frog you again in another year or two. It's simple.


Smith signed last year and Dak is absolutely better than Smith and your assumption that Carr and Foles deserve more pretty much closes you out and shuts the door on the topic. You should have led with that so that I could have just chuckled and moved on knowing that was how your QB ratings work...

Well Foles has won a Super Bowl and also put together one of the best seasons a starting QB has had in NFL history a few years ago, so it's hard to say the potential isn't there for him. That level of experience means a lot. There's a reason you don't see a ton of new faces every year as the playoffs go forward.

The last time we saw Carr with an even remotely competent supporting cast, he threw for almost 4,000 yards, 28 TDs, and 6 INTs. The year before that he went for nearly 4,000 yards, 32 TDs, and 13 INTs, and he took fewer sacks in those 2 years combined than Dak took last year. I'd take those numbers over what we've seen from Dak the past 2 years.

 

[jarntt]

2017 skill positions:
Oak: Lynch, Cooper, Crabtree and Jared Cook
Dall: Zeke for 10 games, old Dez and old Witten

 

[Across The Field]

Skill position, huh? Interesting because Cooper was Dak's only good receiving option and he had him for half a year and Carr had him for a year and a half of the last two years.

Man, you're right. I'm sure Dak would've loved to have a RB to tote the rock 300+ times and lead the league in rushing while chipping in 77 catches or something.

Oh, wait.

 

[Across The Field]

2017 skill positions:
Oak: Lynch, Cooper, Crabtree and Jared Cook
Dall: Zeke for 10 games, old Dez and old Witten

So Carr, who was dealing with a back injury, had a 31 year old RB with hardly any tread left on the tires, Amari Cooper who was battling multiple injuries through the season, and two other journeymen who have never been anything but average to that point in their careers. Spot on, dude.

 

[fordman84]

That link you provided is predicated solely on sack rate, which doesn't reflect how many sacks were taken due to his indecisiveness, which is one of his biggest weaknessess right now. I don't disagree that this is an issue with a lot of young QBs.

Overall, Dallas was a top 15 line last year when incorporating all aspects of the OL function, but they were 22nd in pass pro efficiency.

Yeah that happens when just before the season you lose an all pro center.

 

[Across The Field]

Yeah that happens when just before the season you lose an all pro center.

Absolutely. Browns fan know that all too well. We were 7-4 in 2014 when Alex Mack went down for the year. Then we finished 7-9. Sucked.