CPU rankings of 760 teams across the entire NCAA and NAIA (plus four independents)

[nddulac]

Here are my computer rankings through games of November 15. One notable point is that TCU ends up rated above Baylor due to strength of schedule. That will probably even out over the final three weeks. We shall see.

The top teams in each division:
FBS: Alabama (1)
FCS: North Dakota State (41)
DII: Ferris State (83)
DIII: Amherst (144)
NAIA: Carrol (MT) (113)

Amherst plays in the New England Small College Athletic Conference (NESCAC) which does not play any out-of-conference games. Unfortunately, this makes any comparison between them and the rest of college football meaningless. Outside of the NESCAC, the top DIII team is Johns Hopkins, at #218.

As always, you can see my complete rankings at The Fleming System (TFS) and you can find a complete comparison of computer ratings at College Football Ranking Composite

Here are the top 30, according to the computer. The SEC continues to be the best conference,
followed by the Pac12.

TFS - 2.2 

 Rank   School                     Record     Conf.       Div.     Rating      Schedule
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
.   1)  Alabama                    ( 9 -  1)  SEC         DI-FBS   161.586      143.536
.   2)  Mississippi                ( 8 -  2)  SEC         DI-FBS   158.301      142.501
.   3)  Oregon                     ( 9 -  1)  Pac12       DI-FBS   157.795      140.145
.   4)  Mississippi St             ( 9 -  1)  SEC         DI-FBS   157.272      138.522
.   5)  Florida St                 (10 -  0)  ACC         DI-FBS   156.769      135.869
.   6)  TCU                        ( 9 -  1)  BigXII      DI-FBS   155.748      137.848
.   7)  Georgia                    ( 8 -  2)  SEC         DI-FBS   155.308      140.408
.   8)  UCLA                       ( 8 -  2)  Pac12       DI-FBS   155.198      143.198
.   9)  Auburn                     ( 7 -  3)  SEC         DI-FBS   154.599      146.549
.  10)  Ohio State                 ( 9 -  1)  B1G         DI-FBS   154.574      136.974
 
.  11)  Baylor                     ( 8 -  1)  BigXII      DI-FBS   152.758      134.091
.  12)  Kansas St                  ( 7 -  2)  BigXII      DI-FBS   151.842      139.842
.  13)  Oklahoma                   ( 7 -  3)  BigXII      DI-FBS   151.586      141.536
.  14)  Michigan St                ( 8 -  2)  B1G         DI-FBS   151.288      137.938
.  15)  Wisconsin                  ( 8 -  2)  B1G         DI-FBS   151.231      135.531
.  16)  Arizona St                 ( 8 -  2)  Pac12       DI-FBS   150.738      137.588
.  17)  Missouri                   ( 8 -  2)  SEC         DI-FBS   150.346      138.296
.  18)  Georgia Tech               ( 9 -  2)  ACC         DI-FBS   149.404      134.995
.  19)  Utah                       ( 7 -  3)  Pac12       DI-FBS   149.351      141.051
.  20)  Arizona                    ( 8 -  2)  Pac12       DI-FBS   149.271      137.971
 
.  21)  Nebraska                   ( 8 -  2)  B1G         DI-FBS   149.169      135.719
.  22)  Southern Cal               ( 7 -  3)  Pac12       DI-FBS   148.645      139.245
.  23)  Clemson                    ( 7 -  3)  ACC         DI-FBS   148.098      138.698
.  24)  LSU                        ( 7 -  4)  SEC         DI-FBS   148.098      142.143
.  25)  Boise St                   ( 8 -  2)  MWC         DI-FBS   147.939      135.339
.  26)  Notre Dame                 ( 7 -  3)  Ind-FBS     DI-FBS   147.268      138.518
.  27)  West Virginia              ( 6 -  4)  BigXII      DI-FBS   146.625      141.375
.  28)  Colorado St                ( 9 -  1)  MWC         DI-FBS   146.045      130.045
.  29)  Texas A&M                  ( 7 -  4)  SEC         DI-FBS   145.733      140.233
.  30)  Tennessee                  ( 5 -  5)  SEC         DI-FBS   145.645      145.545

 

[ForeverNole10]

Pretty cool, how do you make your own computer rankings/ what are some of the criteria?

 

[nddulac]

The system uses the score and location of each game to determine how much better the winning team is than the losing team. It then does a least-squares fit to determine a rating for each team such that minimized the sum of the squared differences between the predicted game outcomes and the actual game outcomes. The predicted outcome is taken as the difference between the ratings, whereas the actual outcome is calculated from the score.

In my current incarnation, the winning team gets

6 points for winning the game
Up to 35 points for margin of victory
Up to 5 points as a defensive bonus for holding the losing team to a low score
3 points as a bonus if the game is won in the other team’s home

I also do another set of ratings in which a team is just given 10 points for winning the game, irrespective of the margin of victory, etc.

The drawback to this system is that the definition of the game-outcome-measure is arbitrary and will by its very nature reward one part of the game over the another. (Mine rewards offense mroe than defense, for example.) However, once the measure is defined, it is applied uniformly across all teams and all games.

As I have done for years, I will offer to run the program using a game-outcome-measure someone defines for me. The only rules are that the method can only use the game scores and game locations (home or neutral), since that is the only data available. (The data source, btw, is Peter Wolfe's excellent compilation of scores across the country found at 2014 College Football.)

So have at it! If you think it is BS that TCU is rated higher than Baylor, or that undefeated Florida State is only at #5, or that the SEC is rated so highly, give me a definition of a game-outcome-measure and I will show you your result

 

[ForeverNole10]

So have at it! If you think it is BS that TCU is rated higher than Baylor, or that undefeated Florida State is only at #5, or that the SEC is rated so highly, give me a definition of a game-outcome-measure and I will show you your result

That's awesome! Personally, I don't have a problem with FSU being 5, or TCU being ahead of Baylor right now. I just find computer rankings to be fascinating, and don't understand why they arent a part of the selection scenario anymore.

 

[tducey]

This is neat, thanks for sharing.

 

[pennstatenut]

looks legit. A 5-5 Tennessee at 30

 

[ForeverNole10]

looks legit. A 5-5 Tennessee at 30

Considering 3/5 losses are to top 10 teams. I don't think this is completely out of sync.

 

[pennstatenut]

Considering 3/5 losses are to top 10 teams. I don't think this is completely out of sync.

Great. You get rewarded for losing.

 

[ForeverNole10]

Great. You get rewarded for losing.

No. You just don't get punished as much for playing good competition.

 

[GoldRusher]

Interesting,
I was trying to think of what type of formula the committee might use for their rankings last week.
Using the playoff committee's top 10 I used the WVSSAC system (WV high schools start their playoffs last week) to see how their opinions match up.
WV has 3 levels, AAA( I use as the P5 level) , AA ( I used as the D1 non P5 level) and A (used as the non D1 schools).
The formula is:
12 points per win + a bonus point for every game a defeated opponent wins over an opponent of the same level (P5 school = AAA school in our case as WVU fans).
9 points per win over a non P5 (AA) and no bonus points.
6 points for a win over a non D1 opponent no bonus points.
Loses count for zero points
I took total number of points and divided by number of games to date(11/14) to get rating:
1. Florida State. 13.8
2. Oregon 12.5
3. TCU. 12.1
4. Mississippi State. 12
4. Alabama. 12
6. Arizona State. 11.8
7. Baylor. 11.1
7. Ohio State. 11.1
9. Auburn. 10.4
10. Ole Miss. 9.4

To get it EXACTLY how their system would rank the teams then I would need to do all teams in the P5 plus I would use Notre Dame and BYU as P5 and the other Indy's as non P5 but...didn't have time to do the math for all of the programs. If anyone has that kind of time...feel free, imo its a good non biased system that rewards wins and punishes scheduling weak teams and loses.

 

[KingKoolKat75]

Considering 3/5 losses are to top 10 teams. I don't think this is completely out of sync.

That's the rub...they are based on opinion polls(at least in part) so how can they be "Computer rankings" ?

 

[nolehusker]

You can get almost 6 times as many points for margin of victory than for winning in your rankings? WTF?

 

[longhorn718]

That's the rub...they are based on opinion polls(at least in part) so how can they be "Computer rankings" ?

Actually at no point in the algorithm is any other poll brought in. The rankings are internal to the system.

 

[nddulac]

You can get almost 6 times as many points for margin of victory than for winning in your rankings? WTF?

If you would like to see the results for a different definition for game-outcome-measure, then tell em what to use and I will put it in. Just keep in mind that the only data I have are the game scores and game location (as in which is the home team, the away team or if the game is played at a neutral site.

 

[nddulac]

That's the rub...they are based on opinion polls(at least in part) so how can they be "Computer rankings" ?

They are "Computer rankings" because I use a computer to fit the data. But there are no inputs other than game scores and locations. So no human opinions. The only exception of how the game-outcome-measure is defined. But once it is defined, it is applied uniformly across all (now 4050) games played.

 

[nddulac]

Here are the TFS ratings through games of November 23. (There was a DIII playoff game that was played on Nov 23.) The top team continues to Be Alabama. Neglecting the DII anomoly (which I will discuss in a second), the next teams are Oregon, Mississippi State, and Florida State. UCLA and TCU are the first teams out of the playoff mix, if TFS has anything to say about it. (Personally, I would go with Alabama, Oregon, FSU, and TCU right now - but TCU may fall down with the remaining schedule, so I think that #4 spot is still in a state of flux.

Here is the full top 30 (for the DI-FBS.) As always, the full ratings are available at The Fleming System (TFS) and a full comparison of computer methods can be found at College Football Ranking Composite. My ratings use data taken from Peter Wolfe's page at 2014 College Football. Enjoy!

TFS - 2.2 (NCAA Division I - Bowl Subdivision)

Rank   School                     Record     Conf.       Div.     Rating      Schedule
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
.   1)  Alabama                    (10 -  1)  SEC         DI-FBS   158.061      139.743
.   2)  Oregon                     (10 -  1)  Pac12       DI-FBS   156.209      138.073
.   3)  Mississippi St             (10 -  1)  SEC         DI-FBS   155.958      136.367
.   4)  Florida St                 (11 -  0)  ACC         DI-FBS   155.757      135.348
.   5)  UCLA                       ( 9 -  2)  Pac12       DI-FBS   155.461      142.642
.   6)  TCU                        ( 9 -  1)  BigXII      DI-FBS   154.706      136.806
.   7)  Georgia                    ( 9 -  2)  SEC         DI-FBS   153.593      137.911
.   8)  Ohio State                 (10 -  1)  B1G         DI-FBS   153.033      135.124
.   9)  Mississippi                ( 8 -  3)  SEC         DI-FBS   152.709      140.891
.  10)  Auburn                     ( 8 -  3)  SEC         DI-FBS   152.533      142.987
 
.  11)  Kansas St                  ( 8 -  2)  BigXII      DI-FBS   151.662      138.862
.  12)  Baylor                     ( 9 -  1)  BigXII      DI-FBS   151.494      132.594
.  13)  Wisconsin                  ( 9 -  2)  B1G         DI-FBS   151.079      135.170
.  14)  Missouri                   ( 9 -  2)  SEC         DI-FBS   150.798      137.934
.  15)  Michigan St                ( 9 -  2)  B1G         DI-FBS   150.592      136.047
.  16)  Arizona                    ( 9 -  2)  Pac12       DI-FBS   149.972      137.336
.  17)  Oklahoma                   ( 8 -  3)  BigXII      DI-FBS   149.755      138.391
.  18)  Arizona St                 ( 9 -  2)  Pac12       DI-FBS   149.585      135.722
.  19)  Georgia Tech               ( 9 -  2)  ACC         DI-FBS   148.367      133.958
.  20)  LSU                        ( 7 -  4)  SEC         DI-FBS   146.796      140.841
 
.  21)  Clemson                    ( 8 -  3)  ACC         DI-FBS   146.688      135.597
.  22)  Southern Cal               ( 7 -  4)  Pac12       DI-FBS   146.345      139.708
.  23)  Boise St                   ( 9 -  2)  MWC         DI-FBS   146.152      132.516
.  24)  Utah                       ( 7 -  4)  Pac12       DI-FBS   146.076      140.894
.  25)  Nebraska                   ( 8 -  3)  B1G         DI-FBS   145.879      135.379
.  26)  Arkansas                   ( 6 -  5)  SEC         DI-FBS   145.659      141.113
.  27)  Louisville                 ( 8 -  3)  ACC         DI-FBS   145.546      133.819
.  28)  Minnesota                  ( 8 -  3)  B1G         DI-FBS   145.091      136.000
.  29)  Texas A&M                  ( 7 -  4)  SEC         DI-FBS   144.940      139.440
.  30)  Notre Dame                 ( 7 -  4)  Ind-FBS     DI-FBS   144.707      138.434

 

[nddulac]

Now - about that DII anomoly. This is caused by the scheduling practice of the Northern Sun Intercollegiate Conference (NSIC). This conference does not play any out-of-conference games and as such, can't be mathematically compared to any team outside of the NSIC since there are no common oppoents. That is - until the NCAA DII playoffs begin.

As it happens, the NSIC placed two teams into the playoffs. Minnesota State - Mankato earned a bye, and will face the Pittsburgh State Gorillas on November 29. Minnesota Duluth, on the other hand, defeated Northwestern Missouri State byt the score of 25-21. That game provides the only link between the NSIC and the rest of college football. And since NW Misouri State was pretty highly rated going in, not only does Minn-Duluth's rating shoot up, so does the average for the entire NSIC. As a result, TFS has pushed Miin St-Mankato all of the way to the #2 position in the country! (Sorry, Oregon, but the Mavericks are the #2 team this week.)

This kind of jump is very common in the second week of the season (before I release my ratings.) At this point, there are so few connections between teams through common opponents, that the range of ratings becomes huge. As more connections are made, these differences become smaller (and more meaningful.) Expect to see the NSIC come back to earth when both Minnesota State Mankato and Minnesota Duluth play their next games.

Here are the ratings for the top 30 of all of college football.

TFS - 2.2 
 Rank   School                     Record     Conf.       Div.     Rating      Schedule
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
.   1)  Alabama                    (10 -  1)  SEC         DI-FBS   158.061      139.743
.   2)  Minn St-Mankato            (11 -  0)  NSIC        DII      157.587      133.315
.   3)  Oregon                     (10 -  1)  Pac12       DI-FBS   156.209      138.073
.   4)  Mississippi St             (10 -  1)  SEC         DI-FBS   155.958      136.367
.   5)  Florida St                 (11 -  0)  ACC         DI-FBS   155.757      135.348
.   6)  UCLA                       ( 9 -  2)  Pac12       DI-FBS   155.461      142.642
.   7)  TCU                        ( 9 -  1)  BigXII      DI-FBS   154.706      136.806
.   8)  Georgia                    ( 9 -  2)  SEC         DI-FBS   153.593      137.911
.   9)  Ohio State                 (10 -  1)  B1G         DI-FBS   153.033      135.124
.  10)  Sioux Falls                (10 -  1)  NSIC        DII      152.837      133.746
 
.  11)  Mississippi                ( 8 -  3)  SEC         DI-FBS   152.709      140.891
.  12)  Auburn                     ( 8 -  3)  SEC         DI-FBS   152.533      142.987
.  13)  Kansas St                  ( 8 -  2)  BigXII      DI-FBS   151.662      138.862
.  14)  Minnesota-Duluth           (12 -  0)  NSIC        DII      151.582      129.374
.  15)  Baylor                     ( 9 -  1)  BigXII      DI-FBS   151.494      132.594
.  16)  Wisconsin                  ( 9 -  2)  B1G         DI-FBS   151.079      135.170
.  17)  Missouri                   ( 9 -  2)  SEC         DI-FBS   150.798      137.934
.  18)  Michigan St                ( 9 -  2)  B1G         DI-FBS   150.592      136.047
.  19)  Arizona                    ( 9 -  2)  Pac12       DI-FBS   149.972      137.336
.  20)  Oklahoma                   ( 8 -  3)  BigXII      DI-FBS   149.755      138.391
 
.  21)  Arizona St                 ( 9 -  2)  Pac12       DI-FBS   149.585      135.722
.  22)  Georgia Tech               ( 9 -  2)  ACC         DI-FBS   148.367      133.958
.  23)  LSU                        ( 7 -  4)  SEC         DI-FBS   146.796      140.841
.  24)  Clemson                    ( 8 -  3)  ACC         DI-FBS   146.688      135.597
.  25)  Southern Cal               ( 7 -  4)  Pac12       DI-FBS   146.345      139.708
.  26)  Boise St                   ( 9 -  2)  MWC         DI-FBS   146.152      132.516
.  27)  Utah                       ( 7 -  4)  Pac12       DI-FBS   146.076      140.894
.  28)  Nebraska                   ( 8 -  3)  B1G         DI-FBS   145.879      135.379
.  29)  Arkansas                   ( 6 -  5)  SEC         DI-FBS   145.659      141.113
.  30)  Louisville                 ( 8 -  3)  ACC         DI-FBS   145.546      133.819

 

[nddulac]

Just how big of a bump did the NSIC get by virtue of Minnesota Duluth beating Northwestern Missouri State? Here are the average ratings (for teams in DII) for the relevent teams before Minn Duluth beat NW Mo St. Notice that both the NSIC and MAIAA have average ratings and schedule ratings of exactly 100. This is the fingerprint of a conference that is not connected to any of the other teams in college football. This also makes a huge contribution to the jump enjoyed by the NSIC through their lone connection to the rest of college football.

.   6)  Minn St-Mankato            (11 -  0)  NSIC        DII      123.215       98.942
.  18)  Sioux Falls                (10 -  1)  NSIC        DII      118.465       99.374
.  20)  NW Missouri St             (10 -  1)  MAIAA       DII      118.000       98.364
.  16)  Pittsburg St               (10 -  1)  MAIAA       DII      118.708       98.299
.  21)  Minnesota-Duluth           (11 -  0)  NSIC        DII      117.210       94.437
.  22)  Harding                    ( 9 -  1)  GrAmC       DII      117.046       96.746

Conference   Divison     Rating    Sched.     N 
------------------------------------------------
NSIC           DII       100.000   100.000    16
MAIAA          DII       100.000   100.000    12
GrAmC          DII        98.592    98.431    11
------------------------------------

And here they are afterward.

.   1)  Minn St-Mankato            (11 -  0)  NSIC        DII      157.587      133.315
.   2)  Sioux Falls                (10 -  1)  NSIC        DII      152.837      133.746
.   3)  Minnesota-Duluth           (12 -  0)  NSIC        DII      151.582      129.374
.   7)  Pittsburg St               (11 -  1)  MAIAA       DII      136.291      115.832
.   8)  NW Missouri St             (10 -  2)  MAIAA       DII      135.582      118.916
.  38)  Harding                    ( 9 -  2)  GrAmC       DII      115.291       98.745

Conference   Divison     Rating    Sched.     N 
------------------------------------------------
NSIC           DII       134.373   134.408    16
MAIAA          DII       117.582   117.825    12
GrAmC          DII        96.836    97.016    11
------------------------------------

The win by Pittsburgh State (who has a loss to NW MO St) over Harding also plays a huge role in bumping the NSIC up so high, because it boosts the MAIAA in the same way that the NSIC was boosted.

Ain't math grand?

 

[nddulac]

So here is the top 30 for the final pre-bowl release of TFS. Take note, because I believe the top four will be the CFP participants. As always, the full ratings can be seen at The Fleming System (TFS) and a comparison of many ratings can be found at College Football Ranking Composite Enjoy!

TFS - 2.2 (NCAA Division I - Bowl Subdivision)

Rank   School                     Record     Conf.       Div.     Rating      Schedule
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
.   1)  Alabama                    (12 -  1)  SEC         DI-FBS   160.091      141.437
.   2)  Oregon                     (12 -  1)  Pac12       DI-FBS   157.933      139.087
.   3)  Florida St                 (13 -  0)  ACC         DI-FBS   157.638      137.946
.   4)  Ohio State                 (12 -  1)  B1G         DI-FBS   156.196      137.273
.   5)  TCU                        (11 -  1)  BigXII      DI-FBS   156.159      136.868
.   6)  Mississippi                ( 9 -  3)  SEC         DI-FBS   154.997      142.414
.   7)  Mississippi St             (10 -  2)  SEC         DI-FBS   153.967      137.759
.   8)  Baylor                     (11 -  1)  BigXII      DI-FBS   153.422      134.797
.   9)  UCLA                       ( 9 -  3)  Pac12       DI-FBS   152.791      143.208
.  10)  Michigan St                (10 -  2)  B1G         DI-FBS   151.903      136.403
 
.  11)  Georgia                    ( 9 -  3)  SEC         DI-FBS   151.362      138.654
.  12)  Auburn                     ( 8 -  4)  SEC         DI-FBS   151.166      144.041
.  13)  Missouri                   (10 -  3)  SEC         DI-FBS   150.687      140.111
.  14)  Arizona                    (10 -  3)  Pac12       DI-FBS   150.622      140.237
.  15)  Georgia Tech               (10 -  3)  ACC         DI-FBS   150.365      137.789
.  16)  Kansas St                  ( 9 -  3)  BigXII      DI-FBS   150.315      139.482
.  17)  Wisconsin                  (10 -  3)  B1G         DI-FBS   150.163      137.394
.  18)  Arizona St                 ( 9 -  3)  Pac12       DI-FBS   149.027      137.777
.  19)  Boise St                   (11 -  2)  MWC         DI-FBS   148.929      134.159
.  20)  Clemson                    ( 9 -  3)  ACC         DI-FBS   148.522      136.606
 
.  21)  LSU                        ( 8 -  4)  SEC         DI-FBS   148.475      141.350
.  22)  Southern Cal               ( 8 -  4)  Pac12       DI-FBS   148.412      140.578
.  23)  Oklahoma                   ( 8 -  4)  BigXII      DI-FBS   147.746      138.871
.  24)  Nebraska                   ( 9 -  3)  B1G         DI-FBS   147.137      135.971
.  25)  Utah                       ( 8 -  4)  Pac12       DI-FBS   146.861      140.527
.  26)  Louisville                 ( 9 -  3)  ACC         DI-FBS   146.586      134.503
.  27)  Arkansas                   ( 6 -  6)  SEC         DI-FBS   145.001      142.293
.  28)  Stanford                   ( 7 -  5)  Pac12       DI-FBS   144.825      138.909
.  29)  West Virginia              ( 7 -  5)  BigXII      DI-FBS   144.736      140.069
.  30)  Minnesota                  ( 8 -  4)  B1G         DI-FBS   144.131      137.381

The NSIC anomaly in NCAA-DII is still persisting, with Minnesota Mankato coming in at @18 in the country. But as they continue through the playoffs and more connections to the rest of football are formed, they will continue to come back to the pack.