CFP + New Year's 6 Bowl Projections (Post Week 12)

[michaeljordan_fan]

Peach Bowl: (1) LSU vs. (4) Oregon
Fiesta Bowl: (2) Ohio State vs. (3) Clemson

Cotton Bowl: Georgia vs. Cincy
Orange Bowl: Florida vs. Pittsburgh
Rose Bowl: Utah vs. Penn State
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Oklahoma

Reminder of the Tie-Ins
Rose: BigTen vs. PAC-12
Sugar: SEC vs. BigXII
Orange: ACC vs. BigTen OR SEC OR Notre Dame
Cotton: no tie-in

Every year the G5 team is forced to go to the Peach, Fiesta, or Cotton. Since the Peach and Fiesta are the semifinals, that means they are going to the Cotton.


What happened this week:
The top teams all looked dominant this weekend, as none of the top contenders had much difficulty.

Alabama's case for an at-large CFP bid, which was already on life-support, got even tougher with no Tua. The committee has stated that injuries are taken into account, meaning Bama needs a lot of help in order to convince the committee they are still a top 4 team at season's end.

Baylor and Minnesota are now eliminated from consideration, barring absolute chaos the last few weeks.

Oklahoma's struggles against Baylor are unlikely to impress the committee, given how weak Baylor was already in their eyes. The good news for OU is they get another chance to play Baylor, and if Utah or Oregon take another loss, but then go on to win the conference OU may have a chance.

The ACC continues to look like utter garbage after Clemson, but someone in the ACC will have to be selected to the Orange Bowl, even if none are ranked. At this point, I suspect the 2nd place team from the Coastal division will get the nod, as the 1st place team will likely be waxed by Clemson, giving them yet another loss. Currently I project that to be Pitt, but you can throw a dart at the ACC standings for a projection as shitty as the conference has been.

As always, feel free to comment on the above projections, or better yet...post your own.

 

[ericd7633]

Peach Bowl: (1) Ohio State vs. (4) LSU
Fiesta Bowl: (2) Clemson vs. (3) Georgia

Cotton Bowl: Utah vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl: Florida vs. Virginia Tech
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Minnesota
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Oklahoma

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

Peach Bowl: (1) Ohio State vs. (4) LSU
Fiesta Bowl: (2) Clemson vs. (3) Georgia

Cotton Bowl: Utah vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl: Florida vs. Virginia Tech
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Minnesota
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Oklahoma

Bold upset. I just don't see UGA putting up enough points to keep up with LSU.

 

[Kevin12773]

Jalen V Saban in the Sugar .... I’d be ok with that

 

[ericd7633]

Bold upset. I just don't see UGA putting up enough points to keep up with LSU.

At this point I think UGA's offense is slightly better than LSU's defense. LSU's offense and UGA's defense will cancel each other out.

 

[Smart]

If Alabama ends the year beating Auburn without Tua, I have no idea how the committee ranks Oregon over them. They would have a win over the team that beat Oregon and their only loss would be competitive against the undefeated, #1 team in the country. Oregon's conference championship won't mean much considering the other teams in that conference.

I know people have Alabama fatigue, but as long as they win out, and as long as LSU takes care of Georgia, they are probably in.

 

[kburjr]

My only difference would be Penn St in the Rose Bowl. That would assume that Penn St loses to Ohio St. With a loss to Minnesota, that would promote Minnesota if they make the CCG. Penn St could get the spot if Wisconsin beats Minnesota but gets beat by OSU in the CCG and adds a 3rd loss

 

[Ickey Shuffle]

Peach Bowl: (1) LSU vs. (4) Clemson
Fiesta Bowl: (2) Ohio State vs. (3) Oregon

Cotton Bowl: Georgia vs. Memphis
Orange Bowl: Florida vs. Pittsburgh
Rose Bowl: Utah vs. Minnesota
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Oklahoma

 

[Smart]

My only difference would be Penn St in the Rose Bowl. That would assume that Penn St loses to Ohio St. With a loss to Minnesota, that would promote Minnesota if they make the CCG. Penn St could get the spot if Wisconsin beats Minnesota but gets beat by OSU in the CCG and adds a 3rd loss

I think a lot would come down to margin of victory. If Minnesota loses a tight game to us, and Penn State/Us get clobbered by OSU, I think Minnesota gets the Rose Bowl. They'd have the same number of losses as Penn State, and both would be close and fairly respectable. That plus head-to-head would push them over.

If Penn State plays Ohio State somewhat close and Minnesota is not competitive with us, I think Penn State would get the edge.

The other interesting scenario is if Penn State plays OSU close, then Minnesota beats us in a close game but gets crushed by OSU. I think the committee probably goes Minnesota there, but I am not sure.

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

If Alabama ends the year beating Auburn without Tua, I have no idea how the committee ranks Oregon over them. They would have a win over the team that beat Oregon and their only loss would be competitive against the undefeated, #1 team in the country. Oregon's conference championship won't mean much considering the other teams in that conference.

I know people have Alabama fatigue, but as long as they win out, and as long as LSU takes care of Georgia, they are probably in.

You said the key words. Conference championship. The committee has never put 1-loss nonchamp in over a 1-loss champ. This year won't be the first. Utah also would get in over Bama if they win out.

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

My only difference would be Penn St in the Rose Bowl. That would assume that Penn St loses to Ohio St. With a loss to Minnesota, that would promote Minnesota if they make the CCG. Penn St could get the spot if Wisconsin beats Minnesota but gets beat by OSU in the CCG and adds a 3rd loss

This is what I see happening.