CFB and data crunching. How and Why it matters

[WhiteMamba]

This is a great read. Especially for all you number and statistical analysis folks.

You will get something out of this. Kinda neat-o.

Which team is best? Forget the eye test -- new-age analytics are here - CBSSports.com

 

[HammerDown]

This stuff is fascinating.

Most of SSA's research goes back only to 2001, but even then amazing trends emerge.

• No team since that time is over .500 when trailing at the half. That's not a huge revelation but this is: LSU is the best at 23-23.

• If you're losing to Bill Snyder at half, you're toast. K-State's coach is 81-3 with the lead going into the second half.

• Nick Saban is 57-2 in games when he has "superior talent." SSA keeps a four-year running average of recruiting rankings. If your class is at least 10 spots better than your opponent you have "superior talent."

• Here's one for those who were tepid over USC's hiring of Steve Sarkisian: In the last 13 years, only nine coaches have improved a program more compared to the previous five years than Sark at Washington. Sarkisian won 54 percent of his games at U-Dub. That was a vast improvement on Tyrone Willingham's 23 percent win rate.

• Bret Bielema is 54-0 lifetime in games he is "expected" to win. That is defined by winning contests in which you are favored by seven or more at home, 10 or more on the road or 8 1/2 at a neutral site. Meanwhile, the great Saban has a two-game losing streak in that category (Auburn, Oklahoma).

• Certain clients might also be interested in which SEC referee had the most holding calls. In the interest of anonymity we'll leave that one alone.

 

[HammerDown]

But what it really boils down to is this.

"What really matters," said Oregon metrics junkie Mark Helfrich, "is what can you throw up on a Power Point to show the players."

What's interesting is thinking about how to profit from this stuff but how are you ever gonna beat Vegas consistently?

 

[WhiteMamba]

Ya, I was proud when Sabermetrics were mentioned.

I didn't even know this was going on in cfb to that extent. And he lives in Portland. I think I need to go find this guy and have a few beer.

 

[Oney]

Really good stuff.


It would be really cool to see the presentations they will be giving to the playoff committee.

 

[Grue]

But what it really boils down to is this.



What's interesting is thinking about how to profit from this stuff but how are you ever gonna beat Vegas consistently?

Become an expert in small conference play. Bet the lines that Vegas doesn't invest much effort into setting and the public generally ignores. You don't beat Vegas. You beat all the people getting it wrong because they know less than you.

 

[charlie42s]

Become an expert in small conference play. Bet the lines that Vegas doesn't invest much effort into setting and the public generally ignores. You don't beat Vegas. You beat all the people getting it wrong because they know less than you.

One of the offices I worked at had a football picking pool. The games to be picked were selected by the previous week's winner. One of the guys used that strategy.

 

[Gator]

Uhh-Ohh

This is a great read. Especially for all you number and statistical analysis folks.

You will get something out of this. Kinda neat-o.

Which team is best? Forget the eye test -- new-age analytics are here - CBSSports.com

You boys had better pray the selection committee doesn't resort to using these metrics guys numbers for SOS.
BCF Toys - Strength of Schedule Ratings

If you take the yearly SOS (provided by the link in the article above) and average it over the past 11 seasons (all they give), here is the list of the top 25 average SOS plus a few others of interest. I know you're interested so I have highlighted the SEC teams

1 . . .Arkansas . . .0.0630
2 . . .LSU . . .0.0698
3 . . .Florida . . .0.0766
4 . . .Tennessee . . .0.0772
5 . . .Auburn . . .0.0872
6 . . .Georgia . . .0.0983
7 . . .Alabama . . .0.1020
8 . . .Washington . . .0.1075
9 . . .Oklahoma . . .0.1078
10 . . .Arizona . . .0.1091
11 . . .Mississippi State . . .0.1110
12 . . .Mississippi . . .0.1115
13 . . .South Carolina . . .0.1123
14 . . .Notre Dame . . .0.1135
15 . . .Oregon State . . .0.1190
16 . . .Kentucky . . .0.1223
17 . . .Stanford . . .0.1224
18 . . .Oregon . . .0.1319
19 . . .UCLA . . .0.1322
20 . . .Miami . . .0.1327
21 . . .California . . .0.1330
22 . . .Arizona State . . .0.1339
23 . . .USC . . .0.1349
24 . . .Texas A&M . . .0.1372
25 . . .Vanderbilt . . .0.1475


36 . . .Texas . . .0.1758
51 . . .Missouri . . .0.2152
94 . . .Boise State . . .0.4522.

The top 7 are SEC teams!!

Anyone say 4 SEC teams in the playoff???

 

[Edisto_Tiger]

:rollseyes: