Carrier Traded To Washington for Third Round Pick

[Crimsoncrew]

it is not a blanket statement, but i had to describe it best i can. Why, so you can understand my comment better. But should've known you'd take it to the extreme.

Why would you even draft Carradine in round 2 even if you know he's injured for the season? Isn't it because you think he's a 1st round talent? So in year 2, you'd expect a 1st round performance right? If you sacrifice his first year, only to get a 2nd round performance in year 2, why?

My comment is on the IR draft strategy, not Carradine's cap space. Why are you using Bennett's cap space? Why is Bennett even mentioned, was he a 1st round pick?

Most rookies sign a 4 year contract, so sacrificing two of them - even 1-1/2 years - isn't "minor". You will argue RFA, but that is still getting only 3 of 5 years. Not asking about his career years left, but his commitment to the 49ers? He could always become a FA after we "groomed" him two years?

Look at the total commitment to Carradine, and what we'll get out of it. Not just THIS season and not just sacks. You don't target a 1st round talent for 60% of the snaps, only you think that way (you argued for Ward as the NB too, not starter).

There is a huge difference between the 8th pick and the 28th pick, so saying "first round pick" doesn't have a common meaning for all guys drafted in that round. And yes, I think that in today's NFL, a late first round pick playing ~60% of plays is not a huge problem. As mentioned, that's in the area of what Michael Bennett has done on the defensive side of the ball, or Jimmy Graham on offense (Bennett comes up in terms of playing time, and cap space only as an analogy to a draft pick). Any team would take the production those guys have offered for first round picks. Particularly on the DL, I like the idea of a good rotation keeping guys fresh.

You have to let this play out. Carradine was somewhat disappointing last year, but he came on late in the season. If he has an impact this year and next, he's a decent pick. If he has a solid season this year, we re-sign him to a reasonable contract, and then he plays several more years at a high level, then he was a good pick.

 

[Pattersonca65]

There is a huge difference between the 8th pick and the 28th pick, so saying "first round pick" doesn't have a common meaning for all guys drafted in that round. And yes, I think that in today's NFL, a late first round pick playing ~60% of plays is not a huge problem. As mentioned, that's in the area of what Michael Bennett has done on the defensive side of the ball, or Jimmy Graham on offense (Bennett comes up in terms of playing time, and cap space only as an analogy to a draft pick). Any team would take the production those guys have offered for first round picks. Particularly on the DL, I like the idea of a good rotation keeping guys fresh.

You have to let this play out. Carradine was somewhat disappointing last year, but he came on late in the season. If he has an impact this year and next, he's a decent pick. If he has a solid season this year, we re-sign him to a reasonable contract, and then he plays several more years at a high level, then he was a good pick.

Yep, kinda hard to find fault with the younger players up until this season as they've had little opportunity to play during the past couple of years. Been more like spot duty.

 

[deep9er]

There is a huge difference between the 8th pick and the 28th pick, so saying "first round pick" doesn't have a common meaning for all guys drafted in that round. And yes, I think that in today's NFL, a late first round pick playing ~60% of plays is not a huge problem. As mentioned, that's in the area of what Michael Bennett has done on the defensive side of the ball, or Jimmy Graham on offense (Bennett comes up in terms of playing time, and cap space only as an analogy to a draft pick). Any team would take the production those guys have offered for first round picks. Particularly on the DL, I like the idea of a good rotation keeping guys fresh.

You have to let this play out. Carradine was somewhat disappointing last year, but he came on late in the season. If he has an impact this year and next, he's a decent pick. If he has a solid season this year, we re-sign him to a reasonable contract, and then he plays several more years at a high level, then he was a good pick.

Baalke started this in 2012, and continued in 2013 and 2014. Isn't this enough "let this play out"? This isn't counting the 2015 draft in Smelter. So without ANY good result from 2012 to 2014, you still think its a good idea to draft IR players?! We already got zero from Lattimore, and near nothing from Looney.

even TODAY, you're still projecting (HOPING) on Carradine so it'll be later into this season before we MIGHT get enough benefits from him. That will be 2-1/2 seasons before we get a situational player who contributes?! That 2nd round pick could've gone to someone who is a starter (100% snaps) today.

You're basing your opinion on nothing, unless you call "jury is still out" something?

You have to factor in performance once they return, and how long it took them to return. If these two things aren't good, then why wait year and half on these guys?

Again, i adjusted my comment to higher picks only. If Baalke wants to continue drafting IR players with later picks, fine. Cause we DO have one result in Dial. Obviously, if a later round IR player doesn't work, not as bad.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Baalke started this in 2012, and continued in 2013 and 2014. Isn't this enough "let this play out"? This isn't counting the 2015 draft in Smelter. So without ANY good result from 2012 to 2014, you still think its a good idea to draft IR players?! We already got zero from Lattimore, and near nothing from Looney.

even TODAY, you're still projecting (HOPING) on Carradine so it'll be later into this season before we MIGHT get enough benefits from him. That will be 2-1/2 seasons before we get a situational player who contributes?! That 2nd round pick could've gone to someone who is a starter (100% snaps) today.

You're basing your opinion on nothing, unless you call "jury is still out" something?

You have to factor in performance once they return, and how long it took them to return. If these two things aren't good, then why wait year and half on these guys?

Again, i adjusted my comment to higher picks only. If Baalke wants to continue drafting IR players with later picks, fine. Cause we DO have one result in Dial. Obviously, if a later round IR player doesn't work, not as bad.

It was one player in 2012, and that player didn't go much higher than he would have without the injury; it wasn't a true IR situation. Looney has been a tolerable backup, if a shaky starter. He certainly has not been an outright bust for a the 117th pick. Look at the players who went shortly after him in that draft, and not many of them have done much more. Lattimore was such a high-risk guy, but getting him at the very end of the 4th made the risk worthwhile.

And yes, it is absolutely too early to judge players from 2013 and 2014 when the entire premise of our discussion is that their first year is basically a wash. We've seen one year out of Carradine, one-and-a-half out of Dial - who played all last year out of position. We haven't seen Reaser in a real game. We haven't seen Thomas, or Millard. If one or two of those guys become solid starters, then the IR experiment is a success IMO. Heck, if Reaser becomes a top-4 CB, that pick is a success. If Millard sticks in any capacity, including PS, that's a success. Thomas should become at least a solid backup to justify his spot.

My opinion isn't based on the jury still being out; my opinion is that the jury is still out. We haven't seen enough one way or the other to determine whether this strategy is effective. To date, one guy who should have been a first round pick and fell to the late-4th has busted because the injury was too severe, and one guy is more or less on track for an average player at his spot. Everyone else is still a variable IMO.

Finally, what is a high pick? I don't consider a 4th rounder to be a high pick. Those guys are 50/50 to even make it to the end of their rookie contracts. So in terms of high picks, we've got Carradine and Thomas, and Thomas was the last pick - a comp pick at that - in the third.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

even TODAY, you're still projecting (HOPING) on Carradine so it'll be later into this season before we MIGHT get enough benefits from him. That will be 2-1/2 seasons before we get a situational player who contributes?! That 2nd round pick could've gone to someone who is a starter (100% snaps) today.

I wanted to return to this. Yes, our second round pick COULD have gone to that sort of player. Or it could have gone to a guy who would have done very little. Geno Smith went one pick before Carradine. Coming close behind him were guys like Robert Woods, Menelik Watson, Kevin Minter, and Gavin Escobar. These guys have done something - as has Tank - but they certainly aren't impact starters.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

That didn't work...

I wanted to return to this. Yes, our second round pick COULD have gone to that sort of player. Or it could have gone to a guy who would have done very little. Geno Smith went one pick before Carradine. Coming close behind him were guys like Robert Woods, Menelik Watson, Kevin Minter, and Gavin Escobar. These guys have done something - as has Tank - but they certainly aren't impact starters.

 

[deep9er]

That didn't work...

I wanted to return to this. Yes, our second round pick COULD have gone to that sort of player. Or it could have gone to a guy who would have done very little. Geno Smith went one pick before Carradine. Coming close behind him were guys like Robert Woods, Menelik Watson, Kevin Minter, and Gavin Escobar. These guys have done something - as has Tank - but they certainly aren't impact starters.

but those teams didn't knowingly wait one year for an injured player. Your losing sight of my original comment, which is about drafting IR players. You're starting to go into tangents such as salary cap, Michael Bennett, and now 'normal' 2nd round picks. How 2nd round picks pan out is another topic, but we're talking IR players.

if you disagree with my comment that's fine, but at least use reasons pertaining to IR players. We already have examples with 2-3 years in the NFL, in Looney, Lattimore, Carradine, and Thomas. Use reasons pertaining to these guys, to justify your opinion.

So again, why it is still a good idea to spend a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounders on IR players?

 

[deep9er]

It was one player in 2012, and that player didn't go much higher than he would have without the injury; it wasn't a true IR situation. Looney has been a tolerable backup, if a shaky starter. He certainly has not been an outright bust for a the 117th pick. Look at the players who went shortly after him in that draft, and not many of them have done much more. Lattimore was such a high-risk guy, but getting him at the very end of the 4th made the risk worthwhile.

And yes, it is absolutely too early to judge players from 2013 and 2014 when the entire premise of our discussion is that their first year is basically a wash. We've seen one year out of Carradine, one-and-a-half out of Dial - who played all last year out of position. We haven't seen Reaser in a real game. We haven't seen Thomas, or Millard. If one or two of those guys become solid starters, then the IR experiment is a success IMO. Heck, if Reaser becomes a top-4 CB, that pick is a success. If Millard sticks in any capacity, including PS, that's a success. Thomas should become at least a solid backup to justify his spot.

My opinion isn't based on the jury still being out; my opinion is that the jury is still out. We haven't seen enough one way or the other to determine whether this strategy is effective. To date, one guy who should have been a first round pick and fell to the late-4th has busted because the injury was too severe, and one guy is more or less on track for an average player at his spot. Everyone else is still a variable IMO.

Finally, what is a high pick? I don't consider a 4th rounder to be a high pick. Those guys are 50/50 to even make it to the end of their rookie contracts. So in terms of high picks, we've got Carradine and Thomas, and Thomas was the last pick - a comp pick at that - in the third.

we have a three year track record and the jury's still out, whaaaaa? You know as well as anyonem three years is enough, and after two years you should have a good idea. Especially if it is a 2nd round spent on supossedly 1st round talent.

Rookie contracts are only for four years, how long do we wait....till they need to be re-signed?

 

[Pattersonca65]

Baalke started this in 2012, and continued in 2013 and 2014. Isn't this enough "let this play out"? This isn't counting the 2015 draft in Smelter. So without ANY good result from 2012 to 2014, you still think its a good idea to draft IR players?! We already got zero from Lattimore, and near nothing from Looney.

even TODAY, you're still projecting (HOPING) on Carradine so it'll be later into this season before we MIGHT get enough benefits from him. That will be 2-1/2 seasons before we get a situational player who contributes?! That 2nd round pick could've gone to someone who is a starter (100% snaps) today.

You're basing your opinion on nothing, unless you call "jury is still out" something?

You have to factor in performance once they return, and how long it took them to return. If these two things aren't good, then why wait year and half on these guys?

Again, i adjusted my comment to higher picks only. If Baalke wants to continue drafting IR players with later picks, fine. Cause we DO have one result in Dial. Obviously, if a later round IR player doesn't work, not as bad.

we have a three year track record and the jury's still out, whaaaaa? You know as well as anyonem three years is enough, and after two years you should have a good idea. Especially if it is a 2nd round spent on supossedly 1st round talent.

Rookie contracts are only for four years, how long do we wait....till they need to be re-signed?

For 2013 and 2014, it kind of depends. When you look at players like Carradine and Dial, they were stashed on the bench in favor on veterans. They saw limited playing time. Dial maybe a bit more. But this is the first year a number of those players are really getting an opportunity

 

[Crimsoncrew]

we have a three year track record and the jury's still out, whaaaaa? You know as well as anyonem three years is enough, and after two years you should have a good idea. Especially if it is a 2nd round spent on supossedly 1st round talent.

Rookie contracts are only for four years, how long do we wait....till they need to be re-signed?

We have a three-year track record on one player: Joe Looney. That player is doing fine for a fourth-round pick: he's a tolerable backup interior OL who can play three spots in a pinch. Sure, we'd love to see him turn into a good starter. Most late fourth rounders don't hit that benchmark.

Tank Carradine has been in the league two years, didn't play in his first, and had to learn a new position. Most people would consider Ray McDonald a very good draft pick, and he didn't blossom until his fifth season. You don't draft players for year one and two. Good teams don't even draft them for their rookie contract.

Hell, Aaron Rodgers rode the pine for three years, and was pretty mediocre in his fourth. Pretty sure we can all agree that was a moderately successful draft pick.

 

[dredinis21]

There are two different factors that come into play regarding the Niners when determining whether the "redshirt year" philosophy is a good one.

1. Value at the position relative to their draft slot. Thomas was recovering from a torn ACL he sustained during pre-draft workouts, which in football is the equivalent of losing a tooth. He was slotted prior to the draft as being a low 1st rd pick/high 2nd rd pick and we drafted him LATE in the 3rd round. That's great value. This is also the way a team that has been successful and is drafting lower can still stockpile talented players.

Which leads me to #2

2. The Niners have been a team that has been loaded with veteran talent with a GM that doesn't like to package picks and go for broke. So the stockpiling of talent while at the same time buying time while the current team plays out the season. Also, as Crim eluded to, it also allows us to attach the RFA tag on each player that doesn't play their first season, which allows us more control.