Carrier Traded To Washington for Third Round Pick

[deep9er]

2017 pick. Not as good as 2016. Still, that's a pretty good return for a backup TE.

we already have enough picks for 2016. No sense drafting so many players, only to cut them. Baalke also isn't one to trade up "big", so again no sense adding more 2016 picks. Baalke's strategy is drafting more to increase his odds of success.

BTW - Don't believe in the "IR" drafting anymore, it hasn't worked. If you use this strategy, those players have to come on strong to make up for a lost season. If they return to action at only 'average' level, drafting IR players doesn't make sense. If they don't even get to average - even bigger loss.

 

[purguy12]

we already have enough picks for 2016. No sense drafting so many players, only to cut them. Baalke also isn't one to trade up "big", so again no sense adding more 2016 picks. Baalke's strategy is drafting more to increase his odds of success.

BTW - Don't believe in the "IR" drafting anymore, it hasn't worked. If you use this strategy, those players have to come on strong to make up for a lost season. If they return to action at only 'average' level, drafting IR players doesn't make sense. If they don't even get to average - even bigger loss.

Im still a fan just because its not like we are wasting a Big pick. Its a stash away player with Big upside if he pans out. I will take the chance every time especially when you have a lot of picks in the draft like we had the last couple of years. Keep doing it and we will hit soon. Tank and Thomas will both play this year and our starting CB was a stash away player. So overall it has worked just not to the level we hoped. Lets see what Smelter does next year. Lets hope he is a nice get. We can use it at the WR position.

 

[Pattersonca65]

Im still a fan just because its not like we are wasting a Big pick. Its a stash away player with Big upside if he pans out. I will take the chance every time especially when you have a lot of picks in the draft like we had the last couple of years. Keep doing it and we will hit soon. Tank and Thomas will both play this year and our starting CB was a stash away player. So overall it has worked just not to the level we hoped. Lets see what Smelter does next year. Lets hope he is a nice get. We can use it at the WR position.

I would like to see Baalke try and trade up and consolidate picks. We have so many recent picks on the roster. I would like to see us move up in the draft to try and get an impact player. We need an impact ILB.

 

[purguy12]

I would like to see Baalke try and trade up and consolidate picks. We have so many recent picks on the roster. I would like to see us move up in the draft to try and get an impact player. We need an impact ILB.

Yes I agree with this statement. Ex: 2 7th rd picks move up to the 6th or multiple 5th and 4th trade some picks and move up to the 3rd. Stuff like that. No reason to draft 10-12 players every year. There is no room for that many. Depending where we land in the draft this year I would like to get J. Smith from ND he will be a top 10 pick. he can play MLB or OLB and the kid is being called the next Willis but faster if not him a Pass rushing OLB or DE. Also depends what we see from Lynch and Harold. MLB might be the position we draft.

other options in the Top is a Top WR or CB or Guard. but that is for next year lets get ready for this year.

 

[deep9er]

I would like to see Baalke try and trade up and consolidate picks. We have so many recent picks on the roster. I would like to see us move up in the draft to try and get an impact player. We need an impact ILB.

agree, it appears we have enough depth to do this. We can never be satisfied with depth so not proposing a wholesale trade up, but depth can't come before key players.

Looking ahead, all these key positions could easily become dire needs....QB, LT, CB, and even pass rushing OLB.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

we already have enough picks for 2016. No sense drafting so many players, only to cut them. Baalke also isn't one to trade up "big", so again no sense adding more 2016 picks. Baalke's strategy is drafting more to increase his odds of success.

BTW - Don't believe in the "IR" drafting anymore, it hasn't worked. If you use this strategy, those players have to come on strong to make up for a lost season. If they return to action at only 'average' level, drafting IR players doesn't make sense. If they don't even get to average - even bigger loss.

It's premature to say this, IMO. Baalke didn't really start going in this direction until 2013. It didn't work with Lattimore, but he had a much higher bust potential than the other guys we've redshirted given the severity of the injury. It appears to be working nicely with Dial, who is slated to start. The jury is out on Carradine, who I think will play well as a pass rusher this season but hasn't become the impact player many of us hoped he would be when we drafted him; he is learning a new position in addition to being a medical redshirt. It looks like it's working out with Reaser, who is competing to start this year. There are still major questions about Brandon Thomas, he's clearly not back into the swing of things yet. Ramsey and Millard were such late picks that I don't think we can factor in the "redshirt" label, though Millard hard reportedly looked good.

As far as returning "only" to an average level, it all depends where you're drafting him and what you mean by average. If we spend a fifth-round pick on Reaser and Dial, and they develop into average starters at their respective positions, that's great value. I'd take that any day.

It's also worth noting that guys who don't play at all as rookies only become RFAs at the end of their contracts, so we can keep them for an extra year at a reasonable price.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

we already have enough picks for 2016. No sense drafting so many players, only to cut them. Baalke also isn't one to trade up "big", so again no sense adding more 2016 picks. Baalke's strategy is drafting more to increase his odds of success.

BTW - Don't believe in the "IR" drafting anymore, it hasn't worked. If you use this strategy, those players have to come on strong to make up for a lost season. If they return to action at only 'average' level, drafting IR players doesn't make sense. If they don't even get to average - even bigger loss.

He's not making huge moves, but he has traded up quite a bit in his tenure. He moved up in the first round to take A. Davis and Reid. He traded up to take Kaepernick in 2011. In 2013, he traded up for Vance McDonald and Corey Lemonier in addition to Reid. He's definitely shown a willingness to go up for guys he likes. I don't think he loved this most recent draft, given the way he handled the third day. Though history tends to support the merit in trading back and acquiring picks.

 

[Pattersonca65]

He's not making huge moves, but he has traded up quite a bit in his tenure. He moved up in the first round to take A. Davis and Reid. He traded up to take Kaepernick in 2011. In 2013, he traded up for Vance McDonald and Corey Lemonier in addition to Reid. He's definitely shown a willingness to go up for guys he likes. I don't think he loved this most recent draft, given the way he handled the third day. Though history tends to support the merit in trading back and acquiring picks.

I am hoping the recent draft picks stick. It appears to me we are getting to the point of quality over quantity. Would love to try and move up to try and land a couple of high end draft picks. Baalke has been loathe to move up too high in the draft because of the steep price of moving up in the draft.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

It's an interesting dilemma at this point, as we've got positions that are real weaknesses, like OL, but it wouldn't surprise me to see us cut an OL or two who catch on somewhere. The same is true at some other spots. We have good depth, but the front-line talent is now lacking.

I agree I'd like to see us move up, particularly later in the draft, but we have a lot of holes in terms of quality starters that we need to plug.

 

[deep9er]

It's premature to say this, IMO. Baalke didn't really start going in this direction until 2013. It didn't work with Lattimore, but he had a much higher bust potential than the other guys we've redshirted given the severity of the injury. It appears to be working nicely with Dial, who is slated to start. The jury is out on Carradine, who I think will play well as a pass rusher this season but hasn't become the impact player many of us hoped he would be when we drafted him; he is learning a new position in addition to being a medical redshirt. It looks like it's working out with Reaser, who is competing to start this year. There are still major questions about Brandon Thomas, he's clearly not back into the swing of things yet. Ramsey and Millard were such late picks that I don't think we can factor in the "redshirt" label, though Millard hard reportedly looked good.


As far as returning "only" to an average level, it all depends where you're drafting him and what you mean by average. If we spend a fifth-round pick on Reaser and Dial, and they develop into average starters at their respective positions, that's great value. I'd take that any day.

It's also worth noting that guys who don't play at all as rookies only become RFAs at the end of their contracts, so we can keep them for an extra year at a reasonable price.

think he started this in 2012, with Looney.

Yes, my opinion does need to factor in what round they were drafted. It'll hurt more when an IR player is drafted higher. In addition to Looney (4th), the higher picks were Lattimore (4th), Carradine (2nd), Brandon Thomas (3rd), and Smelter (3rd).

Regarding "average" ability, yes this needs some kind of definition so allow me to replace it with this......i'd expect a performance as though they were drafted one round earlier. So i'd expect a 1st round level of play from Carradine, a 2nd round level from Thomas, a 3rd from Looney, etc..

Now this isn't hating on Carradine and Thomas, my comment is on the strategy. I'm saying if we're going to sacrifice an entire season, these guys need to come on stronger, FASTER, the very next. We can wait on them a year, but 1-1/2 (?) for Thomas and two seasons for Carradine makes you wonder? So time is another factor, not just level of performance.

The above IS balanced a little by Dial (5th) and i'll even include Reaser (5th). But their performance so far doesn't balance the performance.....so far.....from a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 4th. But to your point, i'll adjust my comment to no IR players in higher rounds. For me, i consider the 4th a higher round and if you disagree, no problem here.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

think he started this in 2012, with Looney.

Yes, my opinion does need to factor in what round they were drafted. It'll hurt more when an IR player is drafted higher. In addition to Looney (4th), the higher picks were Lattimore (4th), Carradine (2nd), Brandon Thomas (3rd), and Smelter (3rd).

Regarding "average" ability, yes this needs some kind of definition so allow me to replace it with this......i'd expect a performance as though they were drafted one round earlier. So i'd expect a 1st round level of play from Carradine, a 2nd round level from Thomas, a 3rd from Looney, etc..

Now this isn't hating on Carradine and Thomas, my comment is on the strategy. I'm saying if we're going to sacrifice an entire season, these guys need to come on stronger, FASTER, the very next. We can wait on them a year, but 1-1/2 (?) for Thomas and two seasons for Carradine makes you wonder? So time is another factor, not just level of performance.

The above IS balanced a little by Dial (5th) and i'll even include Reaser (5th). But their performance so far doesn't balance the performance.....so far.....from a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 4th. But to your point, i'll adjust my comment to no IR players in higher rounds. For me, i consider the 4th a higher round and if you disagree, no problem here.

Smelter was a 4th rounder.

For me, I don't care much about losing the year. If a guy shows that he was worth the pick, he was worth the pick. How often to rookies taken in the third or fourth round make an impact? Hell, Bowman barely played as a rookie, and he's one of the best picks in franchise history. If Carradine has 7 or 8 sacks this year, he's justifying his spot. If Reaser is our third CB and plays alright, he's justifying his spot. I don't like Looney at all, but for a fourth rounder, a backup OL isn't terrible value.

 

[deep9er]

I am hoping the recent draft picks stick. It appears to me we are getting to the point of quality over quantity. Would love to try and move up to try and land a couple of high end draft picks. Baalke has been loathe to move up too high in the draft because of the steep price of moving up in the draft.

oh, i did forget about Reid, so that IS close to what i commented about. As such, i stand corrected on Baalke not wanting to make a 'big' move.

Anyway, if Kaep doesn't get better......Staley is getting up there......Brooks is likely gone next season......Baalke may be 'pushed' to quality?

 

[Pattersonca65]

Keep in mind where this team was a couple of years ago when the team started drafting these redshirt players. The team was relying on the vets and most of the rookies would probably not have seen the field anyway and there were too many picks that would not have made the roster. It is a different story now with the roster turnover and rebuilding

 

[deep9er]

Smelter was a 4th rounder.

For me, I don't care much about losing the year. If a guy shows that he was worth the pick, he was worth the pick. How often to rookies taken in the third or fourth round make an impact? Hell, Bowman barely played as a rookie, and he's one of the best picks in franchise history. If Carradine has 7 or 8 sacks this year, he's justifying his spot. If Reaser is our third CB and plays alright, he's justifying his spot. I don't like Looney at all, but for a fourth rounder, a backup OL isn't terrible value.

Again, i adjusted expected performance to one round earlier than he was drafted. So no, not expecting Looney to be a starter in year 2.

Again, time is a factor too. Using the same example as you - Carradine entering his 3rd season......even if he gets 7 or 8 sacks........was it worth carrying (salary cap) him TWO seasons? Is he now a situational DE or a '1st round' level DE? Yes, those sacks would justify THIS season, but i'm questioning the strategy of carrying him for the previous two.

How many seasons does he have left, after this one?

 

[purguy12]

Good convo guys. Its tough. Im with drafting at least 1 year. I like how it has turned out. Im still waiting for that Home run but I will take some Singles and Doubles. We had a strikeout with Lett but all others are not bad. Im hoping the triple or Home Run will be Smelter.

I agree next year we might have to take LT but not in the 1st. 1st rd pick we should go after Pass Rushing OLB or a MLB or a Top Tier CB. Also don't forget we need to find a Top TE. Next years draft will be very important.

 

[Pattersonca65]

Have to see how things play out. If Reader or Acker shine this year, Corner will drop down in importance. If Anthony Davis returns and ready to play, that will change things.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Again, i adjusted expected performance to one round earlier than he was drafted. So no, not expecting Looney to be a starter in year 2.

Again, time is a factor too. Using the same example as you - Carradine entering his 3rd season......even if he gets 7 or 8 sacks........was it worth carrying (salary cap) him TWO seasons? Is he now a situational DE or a '1st round' level DE? Yes, those sacks would justify THIS season, but i'm questioning the strategy of carrying him for the previous two.

How many seasons does he have left, after this one?

You can't just say blanket one round earlier. That's silly. We got Carradine with the 8th pick in the second round. Healthy, he probably goes in the mid-20s. The earlier a guy is drafted, the less "better" he should be expected to be.

If Carradine is an impact player as a nickel pass rusher this year and going forward, I think that's absolutely fine. Michael Bennett played less than 60% of the snaps in Seattle in 2013. He was well worth the cap space given the impact he had when he was in. And grooming Carradine over the past two years is a minor detail given the guys who were playing over him.

How many seasons does Carradine have left? Barring injury - always an unknown - seven or eight? I don't see how that question really factors into this discussion.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Have to see how things play out. If Reader or Acker shine this year, Corner will drop down in importance. If Anthony Davis returns and ready to play, that will change things.

I don't see how we can go into next year's draft and not address OT. We can't rely on Davis at this point.

 

[deep9er]

You can't just say blanket one round earlier. That's silly. We got Carradine with the 8th pick in the second round. Healthy, he probably goes in the mid-20s. The earlier a guy is drafted, the less "better" he should be expected to be.

If Carradine is an impact player as a nickel pass rusher this year and going forward, I think that's absolutely fine. Michael Bennett played less than 60% of the snaps in Seattle in 2013. He was well worth the cap space given the impact he had when he was in. And grooming Carradine over the past two years is a minor detail given the guys who were playing over him.

How many seasons does Carradine have left? Barring injury - always an unknown - seven or eight? I don't see how that question really factors into this discussion.

it is not a blanket statement, but i had to describe it best i can. Why, so you can understand my comment better. But should've known you'd take it to the extreme.

Why would you even draft Carradine in round 2 even if you know he's injured for the season? Isn't it because you think he's a 1st round talent? So in year 2, you'd expect a 1st round performance right? If you sacrifice his first year, only to get a 2nd round performance in year 2, why?

My comment is on the IR draft strategy, not Carradine's cap space. Why are you using Bennett's cap space? Why is Bennett even mentioned, was he a 1st round pick?

Most rookies sign a 4 year contract, so sacrificing two of them - even 1-1/2 years - isn't "minor". You will argue RFA, but that is still getting only 3 of 5 years. Not asking about his career years left, but his commitment to the 49ers? He could always become a FA after we "groomed" him two years?

Look at the total commitment to Carradine, and what we'll get out of it. Not just THIS season and not just sacks. You don't target a 1st round talent for 60% of the snaps, only you think that way (you argued for Ward as the NB too, not starter).

 

[Pattersonca65]

I don't see how we can go into next year's draft and not address OT. We can't rely on Davis at this point.

I am not saying we don't address OT, I meant more of the order in which we address positions, 1st round vs late round, etc. I haven't thought much of the timing of Davis returning versus out draft strategy but I was thinking by the time the next draft arrives, we will have a better idea of where Anthony Davis is at.