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CoolBeans
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All Dressed Up and No One to Play
Posted on May 16, 2014 by kclifton Standard Reply
Posted on May 16, 2014 by kclifton Standard Reply
An intriguing article from the Salt Lake Tribune lists a doomsday scenario for BYU’s football program: its descent into irrelevance because of lack of compelling match-ups. A program that cannot at least schedule a few marquis games will fade into obscurity. In the article, it states that although the SEC will keep its eight-game conference format but there is one stipulation to the schedule: each of the schools have to schedule at least one school from the Big 12, Big Ten, PAC-12, Notre Dame or the ACC to act as a ninth game. This does not bode well for BYU at all. Not even able to find any breathing room, BYU finds itself in short supply of opponents in the upcoming seasons. Georgia Tech has backed out of games with BYU and others have too. There are a total of 65 schools in the Power Five conferences and BYU is not number 66. BYU is in panic mode.
Two weeks ago, when this article came out, Mike Slive, commissioner of the SEC and Tom Holmoe, AD for BYU, had a brief but cordial meeting with each other. When I say the meeting went cordially, it does not necessarily mean if it was productive or not. BYU rarely plays SEC schools and vice versa. As a matter of fact, this spells bad news for not only BYU but for schools in the Sun Belt, MAC, Mountain West, C-USA, or the AAC. It looks like that what some experts say might be true: that the Power Five might end up creating a separate league from the rest of the FBS schools. BYU will go into a death spiral if this happens. BYU is what I would call a “cusp” program. They are not an elite program right now but you would not also call them a mid-major.
If Mr. Holmoe was not panicking before, he should be now. Holmoe should be in conversations with any league he can talk to. If there was a league he needs to have a powwow with, it is the Big 12. When the Big 12 was shopping for schools in 2011, BYU was one of the possibilities. BYU had left the Mountain West in 2010 and tried its luck at independence. Currently, BYU earns about $6 million a year with its contract with ESPN and has rights to rebroadcasts home games through BYUtv. Back in 2011, Holmoe states that BYU and the Big 12 never received no kind of invitation from the Big 12 or even any kind of communication with them whatsoever.
In the long run, an independent BYU will die on the vine when it has been relegated as a total mid-major, scrambling for opponents late in the year like Idaho or Akron. With the deals that schools like the SEC are making, scheduling games later in the year has become that much more difficult for BYU. For example, you already have inherent match-ups in the SEC and ACC like Georgia-Georgia Tech, South Carolina-Clemson, Florida-Florida State, Kentucky-Louisville and since this will be the norm, Vanderbilt would like reschedule the rivalry it had with Wake Forest, Texas A&M with Texas, Missouri against Kansas, etc. This along with conferences like the Big 12, Big Ten, and PAC-12 playing nine-game schedules and the ACC contemplating a nine-game schedule, scheduling will be impossible for BYU later in the season. A scheduling arrangement with the AAC or the Mountain West may be an option but I this would just be a death sentence for the football program.
In closing, BYU has to join a conference and if they want to they still want to be in the big boys tent, the Big 12 is their only choice because the PAC-12 is a secular conference that does not want a religious-based school. BYU has a similar football-first culture like the majority of the Big 12 schools have. BYU does not necessarily need the money but $20 million sounds a lot better than $6 million. Also, BYU will effectively be in a more national conference and in an elite conference. The Big 12 would get a school that has the facilities already in place to compete with the rest of the Big 12 schools. Also, the Big 12 would get a school with a national following with the eyes of 15 million Mormons worldwide and a toehold in the West. Quite a few Pacific Islanders are Mormons and attend BYU, which schools like Texas, who by the way, is losing the battle in their home state, could tap this well for recruits. The Big 12 could then add another school and have enough to host a conference championship game. BYU cannot survive on their own and the Big 12 will continue to lag behind in the arms race if they do not expand their footprint.
As an addendum to this piece, here is another article from fbschedules.com that states that the ACC will have the same arrangement as the SEC and that also, they do not consider BYU as a P5 opponent.