Bow Down to T.J.

[trojanfan12]

Lakers had a much better chance of winning the title without the bubble.

lol

Everybody had a better chance outside the bubble. No one has HCA.

 

[bksballer89]

lol

Everybody had a better chance outside the bubble. No one has HCA.

Not true. The bubble helps the 3-8 seeds much more. Instead of a team like Miami or Indy needing to win 2 times in a place like Milwaukee, they now play in a neutral site with no fans. A pretty clear advantage for the lower seeded teams who wouldn't have HCA after round 1

 

[trojanfan12]

Not true. The bubble helps the 3-8 seeds much more. Instead of a team like Miami or Indy needing to win 2 times in a place like Milwaukee, they now play in a neutral site with no fans. A pretty clear advantage for the lower seeded teams who wouldn't have HCA after round 1

lol

You realize that also means that teams like Miami won't be playing in front of their home crowd either, right?

Part of the reason lower seeded teams are seeded lower is because they typically play better at home than on the road. None of them are at home.

Miami and Indy wouldn't need to win 2 games in Milwaukee. They need to win 1 and not lose at home.

None of the teams have been through anything like this before and no one really has an advantage because no one's been through this.

About the only advantage, imo, would be for the veteran players. They haven't been through anything like this either, but at least they've dealt with a little more adversity.

The "advantage" that the lower seeded teams have right now is that they are trying to improve their seeding/get more favorable matchups.

Or in the case of teams like the Nets, Suns, Spurs, etc. are desperately trying to at least get to the play in games.

The bubble changes the dynamics a bit because it's unprecedented. But all it does is even the playing field a bit. But the better, more talented teams are still the better more talented teams.

Btw, isn't it awesome to be arguing about basketball again?

 

[BigKen]

Not true. The bubble helps the 3-8 seeds much more. Instead of a team like Miami or Indy needing to win 2 times in a place like Milwaukee, they now play in a neutral site with no fans. A pretty clear advantage for the lower seeded teams who wouldn't have HCA after round 1

In absolute truth, the best teams don't need HCA. They should be able to dominate anywhere, not just at home. If the Lakers can't win on a neutral court, then they don't deserve to win at all.

I'm a C's fan but the team that I think got the biggest boost sitting home for three months was the 76ers. They're whole team is healed and they're playing some decent ball. The C's are averaging 127 points a game over the last three. Teams that seem to be hurting in the bubble are teams that depend on the crowd to get them pumped up, even though the crowd noise is being pumped in.

 

[trojanfan12]

Not true. The bubble helps the 3-8 seeds much more. Instead of a team like Miami or Indy needing to win 2 times in a place like Milwaukee, they now play in a neutral site with no fans. A pretty clear advantage for the lower seeded teams who wouldn't have HCA after round 1

On second thought, I might give a team like the Heat, Raptors and maybe Indy a slight advantage because their teams are built more as a collective than teams that are driven more by star power. Sort of a "the whole is greater than the sum of it's parts" type of situation.

But I don't think it's enough to actually take out a team like the Bucks, Clips or Lakers in a 7 game series. Even in the bubble.

 

[trojanfan12]

In absolute truth, the best teams don't need HCA. They should be able to dominate anywhere, not just at home. If the Lakers can't win on a neutral court, then they don't deserve to win at all.

Agree. Among the top 4 teams the only one that has what I'd call anything close to a significant difference between their home and away records is the Bucks who are 30-4 at home and 25-11 on the road.

The Lakers are 24-9 at home and 27-9 on the road.
Clippers are 26-9 at home and 21-14 on the road.
Raptors are 25-10 and 24-9.

In fact, the top 7 teams in the West all have winning records on the road and their splits are basically the same as the Clippers.

It's a little different in the East. 4 of the top 8 teams have losing records on the road with the Heat being the best at 15-20 and the Sixers being the worst at 11-26.

 

[bksballer89]

TJ Warren is human

 

[tlance]

lol

You realize that also means that teams like Miami won't be playing in front of their home crowd either, right?

Part of the reason lower seeded teams are seeded lower is because they typically play better at home than on the road. None of them are at home.

Miami and Indy wouldn't need to win 2 games in Milwaukee. They need to win 1 and not lose at home.

None of the teams have been through anything like this before and no one really has an advantage because no one's been through this.

About the only advantage, imo, would be for the veteran players. They haven't been through anything like this either, but at least they've dealt with a little more adversity.

The "advantage" that the lower seeded teams have right now is that they are trying to improve their seeding/get more favorable matchups.

Or in the case of teams like the Nets, Suns, Spurs, etc. are desperately trying to at least get to the play in games.

The bubble changes the dynamics a bit because it's unprecedented. But all it does is even the playing field a bit. But the better, more talented teams are still the better more talented teams.

Btw, isn't it awesome to be arguing about basketball again?

@bksballer89 is absolutely right.

If the season would have ended normally, teams like the Heat, Rockets, Blazers, Nuggets, etc. would have had basically zero chance of winning the title.

Now, some may be more likely to lose in the first round, but they have an actual puncher’s chance to win the whole thing that didn’t exist before.

The bubble hurts teams like the Lakers and Bucks more than it hurts anyone else.

In other words, @HurricaneDij39 take that the bubble is rigged for the Lakers is just wildly incorrect.

 

[trojanfan12]

The bubble hurts teams like the Lakers and Bucks more than it hurts anyone else.

Disagree.

In other words, @HurricaneDij39 take that the bubble is rigged for the Lakers is just wildly incorrect.

Like pretty much everything else he posts.

 

[bksballer89]

Disagree.

You're wrong

 

[tlance]

Disagree.



Like pretty much everything else he posts.

Yeah, I really don’t get your logic here.

There is no home court, the field is more wide open than it has ever been before.

So how are the #1 seeds in each conference not hurt by the bubble?

Their odds of reaching the Finals would have been significantly higher had the season progressed normally.

So....

Lakers and Bucks are hurt by the bubble restart because they lost a large portion of the advantage they would have held.

 

[trojanfan12]

Yeah, I really don’t get your logic here.

There is no home court, the field is more wide open than it has ever been before.

So how are the #1 seeds in each conference not hurt by the bubble?

Their odds of reaching the Finals would have been significantly higher had the season progressed normally.

So....

Lakers and Bucks are hurt by the bubble restart because they lost a large portion of the advantage they would have held.

Everyone is hurt by the bubble to some degree. The Lakers and Bucks aren't hurt more than anyone else.

I've already explained my logic, not sure how I can make it any clearer.

You have a different opinion.

 

[bksballer89]

Yeah, I really don’t get your logic here.

There is no home court, the field is more wide open than it has ever been before.

So how are the #1 seeds in each conference not hurt by the bubble?

Their odds of reaching the Finals would have been significantly higher had the season progressed normally.

So....

Lakers and Bucks are hurt by the bubble restart because they lost a large portion of the advantage they would have held.

Yeah not hard to understand. I just agree to disagree at this point but it is easier to win in a neutral site with no fans instead of winning a true road game.

 

[trojanfan12]

Yeah not hard to understand.

Exactly. It's not hard to understand.

No team has HCA. No team has fans there.

And the better, more talented teams, are still better and more talented.

 

[bksballer89]

Exactly. It's not hard to understand.

No team has HCA. No team has fans there.

And the better, more talented teams, are still better and more talented.

Doesn't change anything i said. A neutral site game is easier to win than a true road game. Don't think anyone with a brain would disagree....not rocket science

 

[trojanfan12]

Doesn't change anything i said. A neutral site game is easier to win than a true road game. Don't think anyone with a brain would disagree....not rocket science

A neutral site game is easier for both teams to win. So, in a 7 game series, the better more talented team still wins.

If the Lakers, Bucks, Clippers,etc. get beat in the earlier rounds, it will be because they got beat by a better team. Not because it was played at a neutral site.

Not rocket science.

 

[bksballer89]

A neutral site game is easier for both teams to win. So, in a 7 game series, the better more talented team still wins.

If the Lakers, Bucks, Clippers,etc. get beat in the earlier rounds, it will be because they got beat by a better team. Not because it was played at a neutral site.

I agree with this for the most part. The better team should win but im sticking to my point about the bubble hurting top teams for the most part. For example i would had give Miami a 15-20% chance of beating Milwaukee under normal circumstances in a best of 7. In the bubble, i think that increases to 30-35%.

Long story short, the better team should still win but the bubble give the lower seeds a little better chance especially if they were mediocre road teams

 

[trojanfan12]

I agree with this for the most part. The better team should win but im sticking to my point about the bubble hurting top teams for the most part. For example i wohighly uld had give Miami a 15-20% chance of beating Milwaukee under normal circumstances in a best of 7. In the bubble, i think that increases to 30-35%.

Why? Is Giannis suddenly less talented? If the Heat win, it will be because they're better. I'd give the Heat a 30-35% chance to beat them regardless of where the series is played. I love the way the Heat are constructed and beating the Bucks in or out of a bubble wouldn't be a huge upset, imo.

Long story short, the better team should still win but the bubble give the lower seeds a little better chance especially if they were mediocre road teams

The top teams all have very good road records though. The only true effect that the bubble/neutral site has is that teams like the Blazers who struggled with injuries all season, are now healthy.

I understand the point you're making, but at best, the neutral site might get a lower seeded team 1 game they wouldn't have gotten. But it's highly unlikely that it will be enough to actually change the outcome of a series.

Other than possibly having to face a better lower seeded team than they would have because a team like Portland got healthy...the neutral site isn't really going to be changing outcomes for the higher seeded teams, imo.

 

[tlance]

A neutral site game is easier for both teams to win. So, in a 7 game series, the better more talented team still wins.

If the Lakers, Bucks, Clippers,etc. get beat in the earlier rounds, it will be because they got beat by a better team. Not because it was played at a neutral site.

Not rocket science.

OK.

Lakers play the Blazers for 7 games in a neutral court

Or for 4 games at Staples and 3 in Portland

Which scenario gives Portland the better chance to win the series?

The answer is plain and obvious. The Lakers odds of getting upset increase in every single series because they lost home court advantage.

On the flip side, the would be road team has improved odds.

So unequivocally, the bubble hurts the Lakers chances while simultaneously helping others.

Should they still win? Against everybody but LAC the answer is still yes. But they are definitely less likely to now because of the bubble.

Definitely not rocket science. And honestly not even sure this point is debatable.

 

[tlance]

In a series where 1 team is overmatched nuetral site is meaningless.

In a competitive series that would have gone 6+, it is a significant boost to the lower seed.

After all, the home team has won 79.8% of game 7s throughout NBA history. Now that game is coin flip.