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Blowing up the Big 12

Duckboy33

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Lmao wtf would OU fans care? Trust me we don’t. You are being a fool for ignoring the fact that this will end up as 4 super conferences.

If the Big 12 falls apart, Oklahoma and Texas can join the SEC immediately without paying the exit fee. That's why you see Texas and Oklahoma people floating these rumors out there.

Let me guess, you saw a graphic with 4 conferences and 16 teams in each conference on a graphic on Facebook/Twitter. I hate to break it to you, that's not going to happen. Unfortunately, having a nice, clean looking setup where everyone has a home isn't how expansion works.
 

thunderc

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If the Big 12 falls apart, Oklahoma and Texas can join the SEC immediately without paying the exit fee. That's why you see Texas and Oklahoma people floating these rumors out there.

Let me guess, you saw a graphic with 4 conferences and 16 teams in each conference on a graphic on Facebook/Twitter. I hate to break it to you, that's not going to happen. Unfortunately, having a nice, clean looking setup where everyone has a home isn't how expansion works.
Lmao, OU wil write the check after this season if they have to. I’d bet it all on what I’m saying happening though. Just watch.
 

Duckboy33

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Lmao, OU wil write the check after this season if they have to. I’d bet it all on what I’m saying happening though. Just watch.

There's no doubt OU and Texas are going to the SEC after this year but they'd prefer not to write a giant check to do it.

But mark my words, the rest of the power conferences aren't just going to pick up the pieces of the Big 12. Only time will tell by this time next year, it will be much more clear. And I'm pretty confident none of the remaining Big 12 schools will have a PAC offer by then.
 

thunderc

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There's no doubt OU and Texas are going to the SEC after this year but they'd prefer not to write a giant check to do it.

But mark my words, the rest of the power conferences aren't just going to pick up the pieces of the Big 12. Only time will tell by this time next year, it will be much more clear. And I'm pretty confident none of the remaining Big 12 schools will have a PAC offer by then.
I never said it would happen in a year, it will happen though.
 

BamaDude

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They're above the Sun Belt. They would be an excellent choice for C-USA
Three or four years ago, this was probably true. But, except for Appalachian State's early season stumble against Marshall, the Sun Belt usually has two or three teams that are better than the best of the CUSA. And the middle of the SBC is roughly equal to the rest of Conference USA.
 

BamaDude

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I understand they're going to have a revenue drop, that's not a question. But the PAC 12 isn't picking up any of the remaining teams, neither will the Big Ten or ACC.

Even when they lose 50% of their value, their TV payout is still above the AAC so a move to the AAC doesn't make sense unless they start losing more teams.
Based on 2018 & 2019 figures, games involving Oklahoma & Texas account for 58.23% of the viewership among Big 12 schools. And, Oklahoma accounted for the majority of average viewers at 3.76 million per game; with Texas at 3.20 mil. The other 8 teams - when not playing one of the two premier schools, only averaged 886 thousand viewers per game.

With the AAC already having a market presence in Houston, Dallas, southern Ohio, Florida, Memphis and eastern North Carolina, there is more to gain by some of the better teams in the B-12 joining the AAC than the other way around.
 

BamaDude

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BamaDude

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B1G goes hard for ND and KU. If they don't come on board, the best move for B1G is KU, ISU, OK lite and Tex Tech, IMO.
Notre Dame can't join any conference other than the ACC before 2036 without having to pay a $150,000,000 fine.
 

psaboy

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Notre Dame can't join any conference other than the ACC before 2036 without having to pay a $150,000,000 fine.
Huh, haven't heard that one, I'll have to check my local sources.
 

fredsdeadfriend

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No way the Pac is in a hurry to add 4 new schools to it's conference, nor is the B1G in any kind of a hurry or feeling desperate. Could Texas and OU be bound for the SEC? Sure, I could see that. OU has their football and a bit of a footprint, and Texas has everything else basically and would be a huge addition to the SEC.

But would this mean the end of the Big 12? Not necessarily. I've been saying for years now that Cincy and one of the Florida schools should join up with the Big 12, and possibly one more school in that area to make up a pod of 4 eastern schools along with WVU. This adds Ohio and Florida to the Big 12's media footprint and expands their recruiting landscape as well. That would only get them back up to nine programs, but as someone earlier mentioned, what would remain of the Big 12, would still have higher profiles, as a whole, as any of the G5 conferences, now this depends on when this UT/OU exit takes place? If enough time goes by, then other moves may start to play out, like KU to the Pac or B1G?

But now looking at the B1G, I know a lot of people think that ND is the only school the B1G wants if they expand, any other school would just be to round out the # to 16, but I don't think that is true. ND wants too much from the B1G to join and the B1G won't give in, and ND won't back down, especially when they probably believe the ACC will be more open to giving them more of what they want. Now the SEC makes a ton on Football, but the B1G makes HUGE money on Research, far more than SEC schools, so they can afford to not get stupid or desperate when it comes to seeking out new additions. Adding on 2 new football powers would be great, of course, would help catch them up to the SEC in that sport, and would add to the athletic profits as well, which if they can do, they will, but not sure which school can deliver them both football profits and expanded media footprint and research dollars, etc.. Basketball is the only other sport that really brings in money, but I don't see the B1G bringing in a bb school that doesn't contribute in other ways as well. Adding the state of Kansas to the media footprint really doesn't do much. They learned the hard way when they brought in Nebraska, hoping their football would make up for their lack of media footprint and research prowess. Rutgers and Maryland were mostly about media footprint and research, with the hopes that one of them would pan out in football, neither of them doing that. All they do is help make OSU, PSU and Mich, and MSU for awhile there, look better. The B1G would NEVER EVER EVER take in the likes of Iowa St, as they add nothing in regards to media footprint, and honestly basically nothing football wise and not much bb wise. And they might be an AAU member, but I'd guess they rank below both Maryland and Rutgers in the Research money rankings, maybe ahead of Nebraska? But the B1G already made it clear they would never add a school in a state already represented in the B1G. I know that they were considering Texas and a school in Florida, UCF I believe? But I don't think either is in the AAU, but I believe UCF could be on that kind of a path? I know that in the past Virginia and UNC/Duke were mentioned, but Georgia Tech is the school I could see happening along with UCF/USF. But Oklahoma St is another possibility, paired with KU, as they are landlocked with Nebraska, although I'm not sure they bring enough to the table for the B1G? OSU paired with a Texas school could also work as I know the B1G would love to get in on that Texas Media footprint if it could.

So I don't think the ACC is far from 16? Aren't they at 14 or 15 right now, so ND would get them to 16? UT/OU would get SEC to 16. UCF/GT or KU/OSU or maybe UCF/KU gets the B1G to 16? That leaves the Pac. Because at this point the Big 12 just doesn't have enough left I don't think to rebuild, especially with the Pac's 4 targets being mostly Big 12 schools. They'd want at least one Texas school and would probably take OSU if they were still available. BYU would make some sense although that wouldn't expand their media footprint. Top 3 targets imo would be probably KU, OSU & a texas school, all 3 bigger schools, 3 new footprints and all in a more favorable time zone, and then who knows for the 12th team? Do they just go with 2 Texas schools or do they try to go with someone like UNLV or Boise St or maybe Hawaii, one of the New Mexico schools? They could add another Cali school? Not sure what the Pac's philosophy is these days? Colorado and Utah were perfectly sensible additions, but their choices are sort of limited. And will be even more limited if the Big 12 stays together. They could go with both NM schools, BYU and Colorado St if they wanted to keep things where every school has an instate rivalry? Or they could go with UNLV and Boise St instead of the NMex schools with those 2 being rivals maybe?

One thing I don't see happening is the 20 team merger of the remainers of the Big 12 with the Pac 12. 16 is too big in my opinion, but I understand the idea of four 16 team conferences forming a sort of perfect 64 team league with the 4 conf champs all meeting in the CFPs. But that would basically require the Big 12 to disintegrate, and the remaining leftovers joining up with G5 Conferences and the G5 schools having their own Championship or something?! Would they be ok with that?
 

Duckboy33

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Based on 2018 & 2019 figures, games involving Oklahoma & Texas account for 58.23% of the viewership among Big 12 schools. And, Oklahoma accounted for the majority of average viewers at 3.76 million per game; with Texas at 3.20 mil. The other 8 teams - when not playing one of the two premier schools, only averaged 886 thousand viewers per game.

With the AAC already having a market presence in Houston, Dallas, southern Ohio, Florida, Memphis and eastern North Carolina, there is more to gain by some of the better teams in the B-12 joining the AAC than the other way around.

Even with a massive hit, it's likely to be significantly better than the AACs. Most people expect the new Big 12 TV payout to be around 10M a team, which is still significantly more than the AAC. The only advantage the AAC has over the Big 12 right now is stability.
 

jerseyhawksfan79

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The Pac and the B10 will expand as soon as TX and OK head to the SEC. It's about expanding the playoffs to generate more revenue.
 

BamaDude

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Even with a massive hit, it's likely to be significantly better than the AACs. Most people expect the new Big 12 TV payout to be around 10M a team, which is still significantly more than the AAC. The only advantage the AAC has over the Big 12 right now is stability.
I get what you're saying. But, if Oklahoma St., Iowa St. & a couple of the little 12's Texas school joined the AAC, the tv payout would go up fairly substantially. Even so, the Big 12's best move might be to form a scheduling/tv alliance with the Pac-12. They would be more likely to pull in a couple of AAC teams under that scenario.

The B-12's other option would be to add 3 good western schools like BYU, San Diego St., & Boise St., along with an eastern school to keep West Virginia company.
 

Duckboy33

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I get what you're saying. But, if Oklahoma St., Iowa St. & a couple of the little 12's Texas school joined the AAC, the tv payout would go up fairly substantially. Even so, the Big 12's best move might be to form a scheduling/tv alliance with the Pac-12. They would be more likely to pull in a couple of AAC teams under that scenario.

The B-12's other option would be to add 3 good western schools like BYU, San Diego St., & Boise St., along with an eastern school to keep West Virginia company.

I think the Big 12 adding the top schools in the AAC will produce a more valuable conference than the reverse.

Looking west wouldn't be a terrible option if the AAC teams are skeptical about joining an unstable conference.
 

Duckboy33

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The Pac and the B10 will expand as soon as TX and OK head to the SEC. It's about expanding the playoffs to generate more revenue.

I don't necessarily think they'll expand but I think you're going to see the other conferences work together to close the revenue gap between themselves and the SEC.
 

tabascojet

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going west is probably a mistake for the big12....just raid the aac and be done with it (and i highly doubt ku is sticking around in the long run)

west- txt, okst, isu, bailer, ksu, tcu
east- wvu, hou, mem, cin, usf, ucf
 

TheLonestarDUCK

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going west is probably a mistake for the big12....just raid the aac and be done with it (and i highly doubt ku is sticking around in the long run)

west- txt, okst, isu, bailer, ksu, tcu
east- wvu, hou, mem, cin, usf, ucf
That may drop “Power 5” Status
 

belcherboy

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going west is probably a mistake for the big12....just raid the aac and be done with it (and i highly doubt ku is sticking around in the long run)

west- txt, okst, isu, bailer, ksu, tcu
east- wvu, hou, mem, cin, usf, ucf

Good call! That would be a pretty good conference. I could see 3-4 top 25 teams most years in that conference with those teams.
 
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