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Blowing up the Big 12

BamaDude

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It's looking more & more each day as if Texas & Oklahoma will be leaving the Big 12 for the SEC in the not-too-distant future (one to four years). With that likelihood on the horizon, here's what I think will happen to the rest of the Big 12:

Iowa St. & Kansas, the only AAU members left in the conference, will move to the Big 10 (both to the Western Division, with Purdue moving to the East). The Big 10 might prefer Virginia, North Carolina or Georgia Tech, but they are tied to the ACC through grants of rights through 2035-36.

West Virginia will either move to the ACC or the AAC. If it's the former, then pressure will be put on Notre Dame to finally come onboard for football (it might make their path to the playoffs easier).

Oklahoma St., TCU & Baylor will likely be bound for the AAC. Some of these teams will flirt with the Pac-12, but won't like the prospect of playing most of their games in the Mountain & Pacific time zones.

Texas Tech will most likely end up in the MWC or Pac-12 because their western location won't be as desirable to those leagues based primarily in the Eastern & Central time zones. CUSA & the Sun Belt might find them attractive, but the Red Raiders would not likely return the interest. If Texas Tech heads West, then they might be joined by Kansas St., and possibly some combination of BYU, Boise St. and/or Colorado St. Or, the Wildcats could join their former conference mates in the
AAC.

That's what I see working out if Texas & Oklahoma actually do join the SEC. If the Texas legislature finds a way to block the Longhorn's move, Oklahoma could still make the jump. If that were to happen, the SEC would probably elect to even things out by adding West Virginia, even though the Mountaineers don't move the needle nearly as much when it comes to television rights negotiations. But, Texas staying behind would give the Big 12 the advantage over the AAC as far as raiding each other for new members.
 

WABLTY

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The Big 12 remnants, unless they get a great offer from the B1G (Kansas, maybe Iowa State), are going to wait for their money.

Unless Kansas goes, I think the next round would be in a couple years. None of them are "must gets". That being said, I'd be surprised if the Pac 12 doesn't go after one of the Texas schools and maybe Oklahoma State to pair with them. Not Baylor from Texas though. TCU or Tech.
 

thunderc

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Talks have already started is the word, Okie St talking to the Big 10.
 

Duckboy33

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No one from the aac is joining this dead conference...book it. More likely the bones of the big12 get picked clean and some g5 becomes the 5th p5

I wouldn't be shocked if the top teams in the AAC jumped at a chance at the Big 12. Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas State, etc is better than Tulane, Temple or ECU.
 

rmilia1

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I don't see Kansas waiting around especially given how important basketball is there. They'll be gone as soon as possible and if they go then there's no point in the rest of the league holding on waiting for the inevitable
 

HuskerOC

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I don't see Kansas waiting around especially given how important basketball is there. They'll be gone as soon as possible and if they go then there's no point in the rest of the league holding on waiting for the inevitable

Basketball pays zero bills for anybody other than Kansas.

I believe KU is an AAU school though, and the KC market is nice.
 

rmilia1

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Basketball pays zero bills for anybody other than Kansas.

I believe KU is an AAU school though, and the KC market is nice.
Eh... basketball revenue isn't football revenue but its still a lot . I think it was 17M average for B10 schools in 19. Ultimately the league isn't going to be able to add football powerhouses so basketball is the next obvious place to look
 

tabascojet

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Okst txt and wvu to aac...
Kansas and nd to big 10.....
Okla and Texas to sec...
Bailer tcu byu liberty to form new God squad conf....
Iowa St ksu to mwc...

Perfect :thumb:
 

NolePride

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How 'Bout...Super Conferences for football only. And then Basketball and the non-revenue sports
play in regional type leagues, that remain in the NCAA.

Just a thought.
 

foster4prez

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B1G isn't bringing in anyone that isn't AAU. They don't need to grow right now.

ACC will push to grab ND and WVU or Cinci.

AAC would be smart to poach OSU, Texas Tech, TCU, and anyone else interested.
 

Payton

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B1G isn't bringing in anyone that isn't AAU. They don't need to grow right now.

ACC will push to grab ND and WVU or Cinci.

AAC would be smart to poach OSU, Texas Tech, TCU, and anyone else interested.
I don’t think it’s about a “need to grow” right now, but a bit of a scramble to pick the carcass and get the best of the remaining scraps to get to that magical “16” number…
 

Hornsstampede2.0

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My completely "arbitrary wild guesses" at Power 5 salvation:
Salvation meaning the Big 12 survives and keeps it status, or the team has to go elsewhere.


WVU (100%)
The ACC will always grab them. They should feel safe whether the Big 12 survives or not.
Kansas (80%) They have TV markets and academics. Being in trouble with the NCAA is bad timing however.
Iowa State (60%) They likely just ride the coattails of Kansas as package deal, and hope that the new league doesnt want only KU.

Okie Junior/TCU/TTU (40%) These guys are a mixed bag. Someone might see some value or they can rebuild Big 12.

Kansas State (20%) Their only chance is to convince WVU/Kansas to stick around and rebuild the Big 12.
Baylor (5%) There is no guarantee the Big 12 even wants them. The Big 12 hates them, and nobody else would want them. It might be easiest to kick them to the curb once and for all with a restarted Big 12.

Of course, I am batting about .052 on these types of predictions.
 

PIBuckeye

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I don’t think it’s about a “need to grow” right now, but a bit of a scramble to pick the carcass and get the best of the remaining scraps to get to that magical “16” number…
yea. agree. It's about keeping up essentially. has nothing to do with "not needing to grow". I think the B1G needs to be proactive and grab the most attractive programs available...... Honest? I'm old school and don't prefer all this conference realignment crap other than the occasional add from independents. And I don't care what anyone says, disregarding regional locations is just dumb. there should be some common sense to conf. team members. it would be stupid as hell to have UCF in the Pac 12 or Oregon in the ACC.................. to use some extremes.

anyway, because the situation is forced, the B1G needs to grab/go after a few decent programs. Looking at this group - Okie St., WVA, Iowa St., maybe Kansas, and continue to help ND pull their head out of their ass and lock them up. They belong no where else.
 

foster4prez

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My completely "arbitrary wild guesses" at Power 5 salvation:
Salvation meaning the Big 12 survives and keeps it status, or the team has to go elsewhere.


WVU (100%) The ACC will always grab them. They should feel safe whether the Big 12 survives or not.
Kansas (80%) They have TV markets and academics. Being in trouble with the NCAA is bad timing however.
Iowa State (60%) They likely just ride the coattails of Kansas as package deal, and hope that the new league doesnt want only KU.

Okie Junior/TCU/TTU (40%) These guys are a mixed bag. Someone might see some value or they can rebuild Big 12.

Kansas State (20%) Their only chance is to convince WVU/Kansas to stick around and rebuild the Big 12.
Baylor (5%) There is no guarantee the Big 12 even wants them. The Big 12 hates them, and nobody else would want them. It might be easiest to kick them to the curb once and for all with a restarted Big 12.

Of course, I am batting about .052 on these types of predictions.
To be clear, the ACC is not grabbing anyone if they don't formally get Notre Dame first.
 

Hitman Hart

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I don't see the Big 12 going anywhere for now. They keep all 8 members intact and add UCF and Cincy
Agreed. The ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 aren't going to add schools if the perception is that those additions aren't going to add monetary value to the conference. WVU and Cincy to the ACC isn't going to happen because the ACC wouldn't be interested in that. The ACC would be interested in Notre Dame and West Virginia, but unfortunately Notre Dame wouldn't be interested in that.

tbh, I just don't think any of the leftovers in the Big XII are attractive enough to initiate expansion for any of the other power leagues.
 

OUGuy1999

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WVU (100%) The ACC will always grab them. They should feel safe whether the Big 12 survives or not.
The ACC didnt even want WVU back in 2010 when the first shift happened, which is how the Big12 got them. The chances that the ACC will even look at WVU before Dame is below 0%.
 
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