POLL Blake Bortles: Bust?

[Rock Strongo]

Tom Brady

2001 - (Started 14 games) - 18 TD / 12 Int, 63.9 Comp % (62 less passes than Bortle's rookie year), 86.5 Rating
2002 - (Started 16 games) - 28 TD / 14 Int, 62.1 Comp % (5 less pass than Bortle's soph year), 85.7 Rating
2003 - (Started 16 games) - 23 TD / 12 Int, 60.2 Comp % (98 less passes than Bortle's 3rd year), 85.9 Rating

First 3 seasons - 69 TDs / 38 Int, around 61-62 Comp % (estimated), Around 86 Rating (estimated)

Bortle's WRs

1st year - Cecil Shorts, Marqise Lee, Allen Robinson
2nd year - Marqise Lee, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurts
3rd year - Marqise Lee, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurts

Brady's WRs - 1st 3 seasons

1st year - Troy Brown, Terry Glenn, Tony Simmons
2nd year - Troy Brown, David Patten, Deion Branch
3rd year - Deion Branch, Troy Brown, David Givens

Tom Brady didn't have a HOF 1st 3 years if you go by stats, but his 34-10 record and being on 2 Super Bowl teams his 1st three seasons as starter make him out to be HOF. I would bet after 2003, if you took out Brady, NE is better than JAX are without Bortles now.

I say it is way too early. It took Alex Smith 8 years to break through, and he was considered a bust for 7 of them. Alex Smith is no HOFer, but I wouldn't consider him a bust anymore. I don't think Bortles is a HOF, but I pointed out a HOF QB who didn't have a much better 1st 3 seasons.

But, if he doesn't do anything in next few seasons, I would start considering calling him a bust.

thats a lot of work for no value lol

really tho, bortles cant throw screen passes. he just cant. he butchers short throws.

 

[iowajerms]

thats a lot of work for no value lol

really tho, bortles cant throw screen passes. he just cant. he butchers short throws.

Neither could Michael Vick.

Would you consider Vick a bust?

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

Neither could Michael Vick.

Would you consider Vick a bust?

Cam Newton isnt too good at it either

 

[Rock Strongo]

Neither could Michael Vick.

Would you consider Vick a bust?

for expectations?

yes

he underachieved.

 

[Rock Strongo]

56% passer
80.4 rating

133 TD's to 88 picks

PS i judge QB's by being a QB...i.e throwing the ball, as its their primary function unless you played for nebraska.

A QB's job is to throw, and vick wasnt very good at that...like cam newton.

 

[iowajerms]

for expectations?

yes

he underachieved.

Was Bortles expected to be a Tom Brady/Peyton Manning or something? What expectations does/did he have?

 

[soxfan1468927]

Tom Brady

2001 - (Started 14 games) - 18 TD / 12 Int, 63.9 Comp % (62 less passes than Bortle's rookie year), 86.5 Rating
2002 - (Started 16 games) - 28 TD / 14 Int, 62.1 Comp % (5 less pass than Bortle's soph year), 85.7 Rating
2003 - (Started 16 games) - 23 TD / 12 Int, 60.2 Comp % (98 less passes than Bortle's 3rd year), 85.9 Rating

First 3 seasons - 69 TDs / 38 Int, around 61-62 Comp % (estimated), Around 86 Rating (estimated)

Bortle's WRs

1st year - Cecil Shorts, Marqise Lee, Allen Robinson
2nd year - Marqise Lee, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurts
3rd year - Marqise Lee, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurts

Brady's WRs - 1st 3 seasons

1st year - Troy Brown, Terry Glenn, Tony Simmons
2nd year - Troy Brown, David Patten, Deion Branch
3rd year - Deion Branch, Troy Brown, David Givens

Tom Brady didn't have a HOF 1st 3 years if you go by stats, but his 34-10 record and being on 2 Super Bowl teams his 1st three seasons as starter make him out to be HOF. I would bet after 2003, if you took out Brady, NE is better than JAX are without Bortles now.

I say it is way too early. It took Alex Smith 8 years to break through, and he was considered a bust for 7 of them. Alex Smith is no HOFer, but I wouldn't consider him a bust anymore. I don't think Bortles is a HOF, but I pointed out a HOF QB who didn't have a much better 1st 3 seasons.

But, if he doesn't do anything in next few seasons, I would start considering calling him a bust.

Tony Simmons was not on that 2001 Patriots team. David Patten had more targets than Terry Glenn.

You're also comparing stats from two different offensive eras. The league average passer rating from 2001-2003 was 77.3 and Brady had an 86.0 rating, or 11.3% higher than league average. Top 10 every year. The league average passer rating from 2014-2016 was 87.7 while Bortles had a passer rating of 79.6, or 9.3% lower than league average. Never even reached the top 20.

 

[Rock Strongo]

Was Bortles expected to be a Tom Brady/Peyton Manning or something? What expectations does/did he have?

yes, where was he drafted again?

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

Blake Bortles has an opportunity of a lifetime laying in front of him

That is absolutely a championship roster, so we will be able to answer this question more accurately in a month

 

[iowajerms]

56% passer
80.4 rating

133 TD's to 88 picks

PS i judge QB's by being a QB...i.e throwing the ball, as its their primary function unless you played for nebraska.

A QB's job is to throw, and vick wasnt very good at that...like cam newton.

Yes and no. A great thrower/bad running QB > A great running/bad throwing QB. I will agree with that. But a QB's job has always been to lead the offense to score. QBs have been allowed to run longer than they have been allowed to pass forward.

Anyways. What does Bortles need to do to be considered "not a bust"? What was his expectations? Hall of Famer? Super Bowls? Playoffs? Top 10 in pass completions %?

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

Yes and no. A great thrower/bad running QB > A great running/bad throwing QB. I will agree with that. But a QB's job has always been to lead the offense to score. QBs have been allowed to run longer than they have been allowed to pass forward.

Anyways. What does Bortles need to do to be considered "not a bust"? What was his expectations? Hall of Famer? Super Bowls? Playoffs?

For me, dont be the reason the Jags arent in the SB

Cause I doubt very much it will be their defense or running game that prevents them

 

[iowajerms]

yes, where was he drafted again?

So, every Top 3 pick has Hall of Fame expectations?

 

[soxfan1468927]

So, every Top 3 pick has Hall of Fame expectations?

Well there have been 42 quarterbacks since the merger who were taken in the top 3. I'll eliminate the ones who were drafted from 2010-2017, which leaves us with 33. 3 of those are HOFers (Bradshaw, Elway, and Aikman) and I think 2 more are guaranteed a spot (Eli and Peyton). So 5 out of 33 are HOFers.

Those 33 players averaged 2.3 Pro Bowls, 8 years as the primary starter, 119 starts, and 61 wins. In addition, 5 of them have won Super Bowls, all 5 won multiple.

So I don't think it's fair to say that Bortles has to win a Super Bowl to not be a bust, or be in the HOF. But I do think he has to at least reach those averages I posted.

 

[Rock Strongo]

Yes and no. A great thrower/bad running QB > A great running/bad throwing QB. I will agree with that. But a QB's job has always been to lead the offense to score. QBs have been allowed to run longer than they have been allowed to pass forward.

Anyways. What does Bortles need to do to be considered "not a bust"? What was his expectations? Hall of Famer? Super Bowls? Playoffs? Top 10 in pass completions %?

and there used to be a grid on the field. point?

 

[Rock Strongo]

So, every Top 3 pick has Hall of Fame expectations?

theoretically, yes. thats why theres a draft and talent evaluation to rank these guys.

everyones looking for the next big thing. its why theres a draft?

 

[iowajerms]

and there used to be a grid on the field. point?

You didn't answer my question. What does Bortles need to do to be considered "not a bust"?

 

[Rock Strongo]

You didn't answer my question. What does Bortles need to do to be considered "not a bust"?

win games (now that he has a defense to carry him)
complete at least 60% of his passes
TD ratio 3/1 minimum
rating of 95+ (in todays era)

not just a season, but for a few years in a row and show improvement.

basic stuff. you need a carson wentz type progression. hes never done that.

do you recall that the jags FO/coaches basically said this year they would limit bortles throws so "he doesnt hurt the team"? he has 100 fewer attempts this year than last. theres a reason.

hes not very good.

allen robinson laid into him earlier this year. why? he sucks at throwing a football. hes not tim tebow "can of paint" bad, but he lacks accuracy on short and intermediary throws.

 

[iowajerms]

win games (now that he has a defense to carry him)
complete at least 60% of his passes
TD ratio 3/1 minimum
rating of 95+ (in todays era)

not just a season, but for a few years in a row and show improvement.

basic stuff. you need a carson wentz type progression. hes never done that.

do you recall that the jags FO/coaches basically said this year they would limit bortles throws so "he doesnt hurt the team"? he has 100 fewer attempts this year than last. theres a reason.

hes not very good.

allen robinson laid into him earlier this year. why? he sucks at throwing a football. hes not tim tebow "can of paint" bad, but he lacks accuracy on short and intermediary throws.

Eli Manning - #1 draft pick

Has 60% comp% (never had a season better than 63.1%
338 TD / 225 Int
83.8 Rating (93.6 Rating was his best season)

BUST

John Elway - #1 draft pick

Had 56.9% comp% (3 of 16 season with 60% or higher)
300 TD / 226 Int
79.9 Rating (2 seasons 90+ rating, never 95)

BUST

Troy Aikman - #1 draft pick

61.5% comp%
165 TD / 141 Int
81.6 Rating (reached 90+ 2x and 95+ once)

BUST

 

[Rock Strongo]

Eli Manning - #1 draft pick

Has 60% comp% (never had a season better than 63.1%
338 TD / 225 Int
83.8 Rating (93.6 Rating was his best season)

BUST

John Elway - #1 draft pick

Had 56.9% comp% (3 of 16 season with 60% or higher)
300 TD / 226 Int
79.9 Rating (2 seasons 90+ rating, never 95)

BUST

Troy Aikman - #1 draft pick

61.5% comp%
165 TD / 141 Int
81.6 Rating (reached 90+ 2x and 95+ once)

BUST

you must not reed to gooderer.

read my post again. the important parts in parenthesis.

 

[Rock Strongo]

Eli Manning - #1 draft pick

Has 60% comp% (never had a season better than 63.1%
338 TD / 225 Int
83.8 Rating (93.6 Rating was his best season)

BUST

John Elway - #1 draft pick

Had 56.9% comp% (3 of 16 season with 60% or higher)
300 TD / 226 Int
79.9 Rating (2 seasons 90+ rating, never 95)

BUST

Troy Aikman - #1 draft pick

61.5% comp%
165 TD / 141 Int
81.6 Rating (reached 90+ 2x and 95+ once)

BUST

also, to add:

eli manning was never a very good QB. he rode 2 insane defense that got hot. how many times did he lead the NFL in INT's?

elway, see my "era" in parenthesis that you clearly missed.

aikman is arguably one of the least deserving HOF members. he was a game manager. thus, the numbers.