Big Brother

[MilkSpiller22]

Tonight should be interesting post easy evicition.

The twist of splitting up the house depending on the rules could make it so that next week has it easy to make a move within the leftovers or it may cause everyone to play it super safe and eliminate the outsiders again.

Will really depend on the full format and also who gets put into which group.

with 10 people in the house left and 7 vs 3 there is really very little chance for any leftover to go home unless the group disbands...

for fun for ONLY me, i will give you the probabilities

there is a 92% chance that the 3 non leftovers will be split apart

that would mean 4vs 1 and 3vs 2

assuming the leftovers dont back stab eachother this week(all available votes go to the 3 not in the leftovers)

the 4 vs 1- that 1 will be safe only if SHE wins HOH or veto... both have a 20% chance, so she has a 40% chance of staying which means there is a 60% chance of her going home

the 3vs 2- the 2 will only be safe if they win both the HOH and the Veto- both competitions have a 40% chance so that is a 16% chance of being safe... that is an 84% of one of the 2 going home

so the chances that 2 of the non leftovers go home is 92%*84%*60%= 46.3%- and that is if all have an equal chance to win a competition... which we all know is not true...


so the 46.3% is under 4 assumptions

1. two groups of 5 are decided randomly
2. all have an equal chance of winning all competitions
3. the leftovers will vote for the non-leftover given the opportunity
4. the rules of the game dont change... there is a HOH, 2 nominees, veto competition,

 

[mr.hockey4242]

with 10 people in the house left and 7 vs 3 there is really very little chance for any leftover to go home unless the group disbands...

for fun for ONLY me, i will give you the probabilities

there is a 92% chance that the 3 non leftovers will be split apart

that would mean 4vs 1 and 3vs 2

assuming the leftovers dont back stab eachother this week(all available votes go to the 3 not in the leftovers)

the 4 vs 1- that 1 will be safe only if SHE wins HOH or veto... both have a 20% chance, so she has a 40% chance of staying which means there is a 60% chance of her going home

the 3vs 2- the 2 will only be safe if they win both the HOH and the Veto- both competitions have a 40% chance so that is a 16% chance of being safe... that is an 84% of one of the 2 going home

so the chances that 2 of the non leftovers go home is 92%*84%*60%= 46.3%- and that is if all have an equal chance to win a competition... which we all know is not true...


so the 46.3% is under 4 assumptions

1. two groups of 5 are decided randomly
2. all have an equal chance of winning all competitions
3. the leftovers will vote for the non-leftover given the opportunity
4. the rules of the game dont change... there is a HOH, 2 nominees, veto competition,

Yeah and thats what I'm saying.

Once the rules are explained there could be a whole lot more to it. Maybe the rules and set up cause everyone to play it safe. Or maybe due to the split(and who is with who) along with the rules someone thinks its time to make a move. Its two seperate games so it could really go either way.

Also, under the 3 v 2 normal scenario. If one of the non LO's wins HO, i dont see a scenario where they nominate the other person at anytime. Unless its Alyssa and her only option is Terrance/jasmine or Kyle.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Yeah and thats what I'm saying.

Once the rules are explained there could be a whole lot more to it. Maybe the rules and set up cause everyone to play it safe. Or maybe due to the split(and who is with who) along with the rules someone thinks its time to make a move. Its two seperate games so it could really go either way.

Also, under the 3 v 2 normal scenario. If one of the non LO's wins HO, i dont see a scenario where they nominate the other person at anytime. Unless its Alyssa and her only option is Terrance/jasmine or Kyle.

I agree... thats why in the math i showed 3vs 2 the Non-Leftovers needed to win both the HOH and veto...


the other problem that BB executives are facing right now, there is an 8% chance that all 3 of the non leftovers are put in the same grouping... but if that does happen, will anyone believe that it was random?? if the three are together, there will be some major conspiracy theories...


With that said, i like the idea of a split... much more than a double eviction... and hope this acts as this seasons double eviction...

 

[calsnowskier]

I agree... thats why in the math i showed 3vs 2 the Non-Leftovers needed to win both the HOH and veto...


the other problem that BB executives are facing right now, there is an 8% chance that all 3 of the non leftovers are put in the same grouping... but if that does happen, will anyone believe that it was random?? if the three are together, there will be some major conspiracy theories...


With that said, i like the idea of a split... much more than a double eviction... and hope this acts as this seasons double eviction...

They need to determine the split on camera and above reproach. Pulling rocks, for example. No way to rig that without the players being in on it. Having them pick cards randomly, then “scanning” the cards to see what they are is total BS, and was in no way legit.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

They need to determine the split on camera and above reproach. Pulling rocks, for example. No way to rig that without the players being in on it. Having them pick cards randomly, then “scanning” the cards to see what they are is total BS, and was in no way legit.

at least that scanning thing was week one before anyone can be strategic... so it really had zero effect to the game...

 

[calsnowskier]

at least that scanning thing was week one before anyone can be strategic... so it really had zero effect to the game...

It set up the sub games in a way that the producers wanted to see. And they wanted Pooch to have the backstage boss (maybe because he was the alt and they wanted to protect him?)

 

[mr.hockey4242]

That episode was fucking horrendous.

Why the fuck was it two hours? It was just a normal boot with obnoxious filler. Then we got the HOH comp quickly at the end. And couldnt even see how the houses get divided.

Brutal.

 

[calsnowskier]

I have no spoilers, so this may be totally wrong…

Michael HAS to pick his ride/die (forget her name). He has to keep her safe and work with her throughout the week.

Terrance isn’t really working with anyone, but I think the “teams” are pretty clear right now, so he will have to choose between Alisha and Jasmine. I think he will go with Jasmine.

Michael will need a target (at least a public target), so I think he takes whomever Terrance doesn’t take (probably Alisha).

This is where it could get interesting. I think Terrance needs to take “bad competitors” to help ensure he isn’t stuck putting Jasmine on the block. But all the Leftovers are pretty decent competitors, so that isn’t really an option. So who would his target be? With what we as viewers know, Kyle is probably his best option to play with moving forward, but I am not sure he will see that with what he knows. He may want to target Tayler. She did just nominate him. So I will guess he picks her.

Michael will want to avoid getting both Kyle and Alisha together this week, so he will probably go with Tucker/Monte/Joe. Of the three, he will either want to build a relationship with Turner or have a backup target with Monte/Joe. If he passes on Monte/Joe now, he will still be able to get one of them with his next pick, so I think he goes Turner.

At this point, I notice I have the house split exactly down racial lines, but I like my logic in how I got here. But will Terrance want a full black game where he will HAVE eliminate a black person? He hasn’t been shown to be playing that game, but I trust it is in there. But he has also wanted to get Monte out of the house, so he could be his backup plan. I hate doing this, because I have a hard time thinking it will actually happen, but I will say Terrance takes Monte

This leaves Joe and Kyle For Michael to chose from. This is a no brainer. Michael will take Joe.

And Terrance finishes the “draft” by taking Kyle.

Michael
Britney (??)
Alisha (nom-target)
Turner
Joe (nom-pawn-backup target)

Terrance
Jasmine
Tayler (nom-pawn)
Monte (nom-target)
Kyle


I am probably totally wrong, but I think that makes sense, strategically.

 

[calsnowskier]

If it is a snake draft, then it gets REALY interesting.

Michael picks first. If he doesn’t take (Brittney??), than he is just about guaranteeing that 2 Leftovers go home this week (Terrance will just pick both Alisha and Jasmine, almost assuring their safety). But maybe knocking out 2 Leftovers is good for Michael’s game? Either way, I think he HAS to protect (Brittney??) here.

Assuming Michael makes that pick, Terrance HAS to take the girls.

Michael needs a target, but only LOs are left. And he doesn’t want to show his cards at this point. So I think he will avoid taking one of “the three” until he needs to. So who does he want to play with moving forward? Turner is an apparent free agent and Kyle is in a showmance. He doesn’t want to take both, since he would have to nominate one of them. I think Turner is probably the better “moving forward” option. So now he is looking at Monte/Joe/Taylor as his “target” options. While I think all 3 are good competitors, Joe hasn’t won anything yet, so he is probably the best bet as target 1 right now.

Terrance is now looking at Tayler/Monte/Kyle, and he has to take 2. All are bad options for him. He doesn’t want to take T and M because they appear to be working together. But he doesn’t want Kyle because he is working with Alisha and he (Terrance) would have zero say in who would be going home on his side. I think the best of the bad situations for him is to take both T and M.

Michael gets Kyle by default.

Michael
Brittany
Turner (nom-pawn)
Joe (nom-target)
Kyle

Terrance
Alisha
Jasmine
Tayler (nom-pawn-backup target)
Monte (nom-target)


Wow. Regardless of draft format, the two “houses” look very similar.

 

[calsnowskier]

Just logged into the live feeds to see the “teams”…

Spoiler: Inside

Michael
Brittnay
Tayler
Monte
Jasmine

Spoiler: Outside

Terrance
Turner
Joe
Alissa
Kyle

 

[calsnowskier]

Spoiler: Inside thoughts

This looks like a HORRIBLE draw for Michael. He really has to navigate that well to protect B. If M and T are smart, they will try to maneuver the block to be J/B, then vote out B. Michael is a beast. You have to target him.

Spoiler: Outside Thoughts

Terrance needs to partner up with K/A and work to eliminate one of T/J.

 

[BigKen]

This is when alliances get nasty. People begin to recognize that they are the bottom feeders and cruising along with the group for protection is no longer worth squat. They realize that they don't have enough juice in the group to do anything except accept what the real players do. Usually that's voting them out. The only saving grace for the bottom feeders is winning HOH and going after the two biggest players toput on the block. Usually the two power players talk the idiots into going after someone else and then you have to wonder if the producers have stepped in.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Spoiler: Inside thoughts

This looks like a HORRIBLE draw for Michael. He really has to navigate that well to protect B. If M and T are smart, they will try to maneuver the block to be J/B, then vote out B. Michael is a beast. You have to target him.

Spoiler: Outside Thoughts

Terrance needs to partner up with K/A and work to eliminate one of T/J.

I think the teams are pretty straight forward. Michael doesnt have to do anything to keep Brittany safe. Hes in a great spot. He nominated Jamsmine and Monte. If Monte wins veto. Taylor replaces him. Jasmine goes home. Him and Brittany can take a shot at Monte if they want should he not win veto, but based off the other house draw they should be getting Jasmine out so long as she doesnt win.

Other house I think outside of a veto win Joseph is screwed. Terrance probably puts up Joseph and Kyle. But there is no way with Alyssa as a vote that kyle goes home. I think Turner votes out Joseph and even in a tie I think Terrance would too based off logic. I like Joseph. But he kinda got survivor swap screwed. If he wins veto, Alyssa in big trouble.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

alyssa and kyle being in the same grouping is terrible for ALyssa... absolutely terrible... going to make it easier for Joe and turner to convince terrance to target kyle and alyssa... and if alyssa is nominated, nobody is going to take her down and she is going to be sent home... and that would be such a waste of Terrance's HOH... Terrance needs to protect alyssa... but i am just unsure if he is smart enough to know that...

Kyle may save alyssa... but by doing so he is going to end the Leftovers and be a huge target next week, as whoever left from the leftovers are going to go hard for him... which would be terrible strategy, just to keep his showmance....

jasmine is only safe if there is a secret black alliance again...

I really hope terrance is smart... otherwise this is going to be a boring week!!!

 

[Sir Robin Of Camelot]

That episode was fucking horrendous.

Why the fuck was it two hours? It was just a normal boot with obnoxious filler. Then we got the HOH comp quickly at the end. And couldnt even see how the houses get divided.

Brutal.

The great thing about DVR - I blew through all the filler garbage and digested the episode in around 30 minutes. Which really didn't make it any less brutal...

 

[Shane_O_Mac812]

The racism, not only tolerated, but celebrated, by the producers of the show last year was such a turnoff that we no longer watch the show

Racism??? You are truly an idiot.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

As expected Terrance is not the smartest player... messed up with his nominees... should have been Joseph and Kyle...

no reason to spark any drama with turner... very unnecessary... but I guess it will at least keep this week exciting...

 

[mr.hockey4242]

As expected Terrance is not the smartest player... messed up with his nominees... should have been Joseph and Kyle...

no reason to spark any drama with turner... very unnecessary... but I guess it will at least keep this week exciting...

Hes got a deal with Kyle and Alyssa now.

It sucks that Joseph is screwed though

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Hes got a deal with Kyle and Alyssa now.

It sucks that Joseph is screwed though

Joseph was always the target and always needed to win the veto.... now he just has no safety net... unless turner, who is now pissed, does something stupid...

 

[calsnowskier]

As expected Terrance is not the smartest player... messed up with his nominees... should have been Joseph and Kyle...

no reason to spark any drama with turner... very unnecessary... but I guess it will at least keep this week exciting...

He had to nominate the both of them. If he nom’d Joe and Kyle, and Turner won veto, he takes Joe down and the whole plan falls apart. As it stands now, with Joe and Turner on the block, there is absolutely no chance it falls apart unless stupidity shows up.