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Bengals Browns Prediction Thread

Cincyfan78

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Per PFF and Joe Reedy:

Our good friends at Pro Football Focus have been digging through the film and constructing analysis all week and we are not ones to ignore hard work around here. So, wanted to relay observations they uncovered to help you be a more intelligent viewer Sunday against Cleveland.

First, PFF digs into why Andy Dalton’s performance dipped the last two weeks. You can start with this: Miami and Baltimore both rank in the top four of their pass rushing rankings.

He was pressured 32.2 percent of the time in Weeks 9 and 10 combined, and just 25.6 percent of the time in Weeks 1 through 8. He also dropped back to pass more in the last two games (118 times) than any other two-game stretch of his career.

Blitzes are giving him trouble. All three of his interceptions against Miami came against the blitz and he was 4 of 14 against the blitz in Baltimore. The PFF overall ranking against the blitz in those games was -7.7 compared to +1.4 when not blitzed.

In Week 4, the Browns blitzed 15 times on 46 drop-backs. Dalton was 6-of-14 with a -1.7 grade on those snaps, even though pressure was generated on just seven of them. The Browns blitz more than the average NFL team, but not among the most aggressive. Yet, after watching the success the last two weeks defenses had and the success in the first game, you have to think they will be firing off at Dalton.

A pressured quarterback is an unsuccessful quarterback, whether named Manning, Brady, Klingler or Dalton. The need for this offensive line to give Dalton time goes a long way to determining if this offense will hum like October or sputter like November.

As far as Dalton’s competition goes, Wallace Gilberry called Jason Campbell the Checkdown King this week and he’d be right. Campbell throws less than 10 yards down the field on 70 percent of his throws. On those further down the field than that he is just 9 of 21. A key for the Bengals defense will be tightening up the coverage to assure no YAC yardage burns them after the catch.
 

flamingrey

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After 10 weeks there is enough data statisically in most cases to project scores using home stats vs road stats. This is true in this game too, as the Bengals have played four home games and the Browns five road games. So I worked it up that way and the predicted score was 30-10 Bengals.

You also have to factor in though that Cleveland appears to be night and day with Weeden starting as opposed to anyone else. Under Weeden they were 0-2 on the road, 1-0 with Hoyer, and 0-1 with Campbell (only 4 road games, not 5). I believe Campbell will be starting this game and he's dropped in 17 points on the road against KC's defense and 24 points at home against the Ravens.

So, what we can expect from them offensively on the road I think is difficult to predict. Furthermore, they've had some tough road games (Kansas City, Green Bay, and to a lesser extent the Ravens in Week 2) and only one really easy one in the Vikings which they won and put up 31 points with Hoyer.
 

bengaldoug

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You also have to factor in though that Cleveland appears to be night and day with Weeden starting as opposed to anyone else. Under Weeden they were 0-2 on the road, 1-0 with Hoyer, and 0-1 with Campbell (only 4 road games, not 5). I believe Campbell will be starting this game and he's dropped in 17 points on the road against KC's defense and 24 points at home against the Ravens.

So, what we can expect from them offensively on the road I think is difficult to predict. Furthermore, they've had some tough road games (Kansas City, Green Bay, and to a lesser extent the Ravens in Week 2) and only one really easy one in the Vikings which they won and put up 31 points with Hoyer.

True, the offensive stats are skewed because of the different starting quarterbacks. But the defensive stats are not skewed. My biggest problem with the stats are that the Browns can change everything by simply blitzing Dalton.
 

Cincyfan78

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True, the offensive stats are skewed because of the different starting quarterbacks. But the defensive stats are not skewed. My biggest problem with the stats are that the Browns can change everything by simply blitzing Dalton.

Jay has to come up with a way to negate the blitz. I would expect every team to bring heavy pressure against Dalton until he can prove otherwise.

If that means double TE's blocking, or maybe more delay draws in the running game...something has to be done to off-set the pressure.
 

JBUCK66

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40-7 Bengs
minus 14 for Marvin factor 26-7
minus 10 for gruden factor 16-7
minus 7 for Dalton factor 9-7

I got 9-7
 

cincygrad

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Jay has to come up with a way to negate the blitz. I would expect every team to bring heavy pressure against Dalton until he can prove otherwise.

If that means double TE's blocking, or maybe more delay draws in the running game...something has to be done to off-set the pressure.

I'd run a shovel pass......




Bratkowski_Bob_display_image.jpg
 

cincygrad

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That's too hot for the SportsHoopla!
 

cincygrad

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