Baseball prospectus win projection

[msgkings322]

Nate Silver's creation PECOTA (now owned by Baseball Prospectus) has the Sox at 75 wins this year, which sounds like the right area, I would give them maybe 77-78 with good health.

Baseball Prospectus

No one has more projected than 89 wins except one team, the Dodgers of course, at 98.

Congrats LA, you're the new Yankees!

 

[podsox]

vegas has the over/under at 76.5. im taking the over because im a homer and need a reason to watch in September if they blow

 

[gregrey972]

maybe I'm a homer, but I would take the over on the Rangers winning 84 games

 

[msgkings322]

Hey we're all homers, that's how Vegas gets us!

In fact we're doubly screwed because they set the lines high for teams with rabid fan bases knowing that they will get lots of over action from us homers, they need to draw in the unders to make it balance.

Not sure the Sox qualify as a 'rabid fan base', at least as far as Vegas action is concerned. But you can be sure that they set the spreads for Notre Dame football very biased against ND, knowing those guys will bet them anyway.

 

[msgkings322]

vegas has the over/under at 76.5. im taking the over because im a homer and need a reason to watch in September if they blow

They're gonna blow but maybe they will flirt with .500

Remember this isn't the win year, this is the last rebuild year before Dunn is off the books and they can get some (hopefully less horrible) free agents and make a push. This year is about seeing what their young talent can do, getting them another year of ML experience.

I like what Hahn is doing, they finally have a real plan I think, they are being patient. By 2015 we should contend IMO.