Bad Look For NFL

[Roy Munson]

If that it is true, none of your arguments matter and you're just trolling, but we both knew that.

I'm not saying that predictions are baseless... I'm just saying that putting too much stock in statistics like you've posted is silly. What the fuck do the previous 39 4th quarter 14 point leads have in common besides those 2 factors?

I can find any set of numbers to support whatever argument I want... as long as I ignore many other factors that my adjust my prediction.

enjoy your statistical security blanket while Big Red gets outcoached in Seattle.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

And since this has been thrown out there

The Chiefs are a slim favorite in Seattle per FPI.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I'm not saying that predictions are baseless... I'm just saying that putting too much stock in statistics like you've posted is silly. What the fuck do the previous 39 4th quarter 14 point leads have in common besides those 2 factors?

I can find any set of numbers to support whatever argument I want... as long as I ignore many other factors that my adjust my prediction.

enjoy your statistical security blanket while Big Red gets outcoached in Seattle.

Sigh, yet you're gonna do this with narrative? And you don't see the hypocrisy in this?

Fascinating.

But ok, we can do something with better stats, like DVOA if we want to play this game. I personally despise things that aren't semi-verifiable as narratives tend to be. If I am overly reliant on stats, so be it. Far too much of that anti-intellectual bullshit in American society right now; no patience for it.

 

[Roy Munson]

Sigh, yet you're gonna do this with narrative? And you don't see the hypocrisy in this?

Fascinating.

But ok, we can do something with better stats, like DVOA if we want to play this game. I personally despise things that aren't semi-verifiable as narratives tend to be. If I am overly reliant on stats, so be it.

I predict Fat Andy is outcoached in Seattle. I don't know enough about the chargers to predict their game against the Ravens, but if forced I'll pick the chargers with the Ravens crossing the country and shorter week.

should I find some stats on the cross country away teams to support my argument?

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I predict Fat Andy is outcoached in Seattle. I don't know enough about the chargers to predict their game against the Ravens, but if forced I'll pick the chargers with the Ravens crossing the country and shorter week.

should I find some stats on the cross country away teams to support my argument?

Ideally, but this is a message board so I don't care that much- it's not my job to police arguments on the Hoop.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

I guess this could look bad but do we even care at this point. Let's wait and see what happens. If the league wants to do something about it, they can and will. I think there are options.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

As for who wins the ACFW, lots of shit can happen. The Chiefs have to go to Seattle which could be tough but doable for them. Chargers have to travel to Mile High at the end of the month which is the same type of thing but with the added division rival wanting to play spoiler. Both teams could go 1-1 the last 2 games easily. Or both could go 2-0.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Here's a good look for the NFL:

Browns win out, Steelers lose out. Browns win AFC North.

Baker Fuckin Mayfield.

Book market.

 

[Clayton]

I don't know about all of this Andy Reid hate but the Chiefs have had some serious issues staying healthy under his tenure. They were the 19th healthiest team last year, 26th the year before. Probably not going to make the top 15 this year.

I get that its part of the game but you'd figure at some point they'd have a 'healthy' year mixed in.

Chargers fans probably feel the same way, though.

 

[CaptainStubing]

I don't know about all of this Andy Reid hate but the Chiefs have had some serious issues staying healthy under his tenure. They were the 19th healthiest team last year, 26th the year before. Probably not going to make the top 15 this year.

I get that its part of the game but you'd figure at some point they'd have a 'healthy' year mixed in

they have 'rankings' based on injuries? how do they account for one injury being more important than another ? Say, starting WR versus back-up long snapper?

 

[Roy Munson]

I don't know about all of this Andy Reid hate but the Chiefs have had some serious issues staying healthy under his tenure. They were the 19th healthiest team last year, 26th the year before. Probably not going to make the top 15 this year.

I get that its part of the game but you'd figure at some point they'd have a 'healthy' year mixed in

 

[CaptainStubing]

And since this has been thrown out there

The Chiefs are a slim favorite in Seattle per FPI.

dude, do you own stock in FPI and FO ? jesus

 

[OregonDucks]

I'm sure they'll suddenly move them to the Coliseum given the Chargers will have about 50,000 new fans this week since they won and Rams lost.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

dude, do you own stock in FPI and FO ? jesus

I put stock into data, facts, verifiable things like gravity, math, you know?

 

[Roy Munson]

I put stock into data, facts, verifiable things like gravity, math, you know?

LOL at including gravity in the same sentence as selective statistics.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

LOL at including gravity in the same sentence as selective statistics.

I mean, the tweet I posted is certainly selective in that it is responding to a selective narrative.

The % chance of winning the division however is holistic, by it's very nature.

 

[CaptainStubing]

I put stock into data, facts, verifiable things like gravity, math, you know?

then at least use something more reliable than FPI .... it's not that great of a predictor system. I pick more games right in my pick 'em league than FPI gets right.

Here's some helpful information so you can start using more reliable computer prediction systems if that's the only way you can discuss possible game outcomes

ThePredictionTracker NFL RESULTS

 

[Fountain City Blues]

then at least use something more reliable than FPI .... it's not that great of a predictor system. I pick more games right in my pick 'em league than FPI gets right.

Here's some helpful information so you can start using more reliable computer prediction systems if that's the only way you can discuss possible game outcomes

ThePredictionTracker NFL RESULTS

Cool.

I appreciate this a lot more than cliche nonsense.

 

[Clayton]

they have 'rankings' based on injuries? how do they account for one injury being more important than another ? Say, starting WR versus back-up long snapper?

Yeah, that ranking isnt an exact science but you never really could have one. They merely show which teams are reliant on backups.

Its not really a stat I'd champion but people bring up the Chiefs' collapses and two of the ones involving Reid were very heavily influenced by injuries.

The Chiefs team rolling out now is also not nearly as good as the one from week 1

 

[Roy Munson]

Cool.

I appreciate this a lot more than cliche nonsense.

calling your computer models a joke is cliche unless you counter with a different computer model you claim is better because... statistics.