Another Gonzaga Discussion

[DHoey]

Seems to be a lot of Gonzaga hate in this thread for some reason. I think their schedule has been fine, they can't control who they play in their mid major conference.

Non Conf. SoS = 56 - They were in a tournament with Florida, Iowa State, Seton Hall, Stanford, Miami, Indiana State and Quinnipiac. Unfortunately for them they faced Quinnipiac first. What if they would have gotten a team like Miami or Seton Hall, then Florida and Iowa State like they did in the Semi's and Finals. That SoS would look even that much better. They also scheduled San Diego State and UW, who are having their worst seasons respectively, in quite some time. They essentially scheduled 4 gimme games. MVSU, South Dakota, Bryant and Utah Valley. My guess is every other team in the country has scheduled at least 4 of those if not more. So because of that, I'm fine w/their schedule. Out of their 4 best wins OOC NONE were at home.

Their metrics work well in their favor as well:

#1 in KenPom
#1 in Massey
#2 in Sagarin
#4 in SoR

Even in their mid major conference, their results have been overwhelmingly dominant. They won @ San Francisco by 15. You say, well what's the big deal about that? Well San Francisco has a win on a neutral court over the team currently tied for 3rd place in the Pac 12(Utah) and over a team undefeated and in 1st place in the Missouri Valley(Illinois State). They destroyed St. Mary's by 20+.

They are a very good team, are they #1 because of a by product of their schedule? Probably, but my guess is if you gave them a schedule like Baylor's the record would be similar, maybe 1 additional loss. And at that point we're splitting hairs. They do deserve a #1 seed, and if they go undefeated, they would unquestionably deserve a #1 seed, if not #1 overall seed. It's not like this is a team void of talent. They have two McDonald's AA's, two projected 1st rounders, another projected 2nd rounder(all 2018 mocks), and have top 100 type of guys throughout the roster.

I don't think anyone has called them a bad or even just a good team. They are a great team, but I don't expect them to put together a 5-6 game winning streak in the tourney because they never have in the regular season. Most big conference team has went through a crazy though stretch of teams that wear them down and they lose a couple. Gonzaga whips St. Marys but that game is sandwiched between Santa Clara and Pacific.

 

[ericd7633]

I don't think anyone has called them a bad or even just a good team. They are a great team, but I don't expect them to put together a 5-6 game winning streak in the tourney because they never have in the regular season. Most big conference team has went through a crazy though stretch of teams that wear them down and they lose a couple. Gonzaga whips St. Marys but that game is sandwiched between Santa Clara and Pacific.

And there's nothing they can do about their conference schedule. Playing a bad conference schedule has no bearing on whether or not a team is good enough to make the FF. George Mason, Wichita State and Butler have all made the FF playing in mid major conferences. They were good/fortunate enough to get there. Hell even Uconn won it all playing in the AAC. IMO this is Gonzaga's best team, because they have a playmaker at PG in Nigel Williams Goss. Kevin Pangos was a really good player, but NWG is on a different level then he is.

Also, it's hard to make the FF, and the NCAAT is so unpredictable, more times than not the best team doesn't even win it. Gonzaga is capable of getting to the FF this year, they are also capable of losing in the S16, but you can say that about anybody this year, regardless of schedule.

 

[DHoey]

And there's nothing they can do about their conference schedule. Playing a bad conference schedule has no bearing on whether or not a team is good enough to make the FF. George Mason, Wichita State and Butler have all made the FF playing in mid major conferences. They were good/fortunate enough to get there. Hell even Uconn won it all playing in the AAC. IMO this is Gonzaga's best team, because they have a playmaker at PG in Nigel Williams Goss. Kevin Pangos was a really good player, but NWG is on a different level then he is.

Also, it's hard to make the FF, and the NCAAT is so unpredictable, more times than not the best team doesn't even win it. Gonzaga is capable of getting to the FF this year, they are also capable of losing in the S16, but you can say that about anybody this year, regardless of schedule.

I can't speak for GM or Wichita St.'s runs but look back at Butler's OOC schedule those years, Gonzaga's doesn't touch them.

I agree that the tournament is a crap shoot, but my confidence level in Gonzaga isn't very high.

Would you pick them over a seasoned Kansas, Kentucky or Florida St.? Even Duke, Virginia or NC?

 

[ericd7633]

I can't speak for GM or Wichita St.'s runs but look back at Butler's OOC schedule those years, Gonzaga's doesn't touch them.

I agree that the tournament is a crap shoot, but my confidence level in Gonzaga isn't very high.

Would you pick them over a seasoned Kansas, Kentucky or Florida St.? Even Duke, Virginia or NC?

In 09-10 Butler played Northwestern, Minnesota, UCLA, Clemson, Georgetown, Ohio State and Xavier.
In 10-11 Butler played Louisville, Duke, Stanford, Utah, FSU, and Washington State.

I'm failing to see how that is any more of a gauntlet than what Gonzaga schedules? If San Diego State and UW weren't having their worst years in forever, the schedule would look much better. Gonzaga always schedules very aggressively OOC.

And that's fine if your confidence level isn't high on Gonzaga, but it shouldn't be because they play in a mid major league.

Asking me to pick against teams where it's a toss up is hard. But Kentucky lost to Tennessee(the same Tennessee team Gonzaga beat by double digits). FSU just lost by a combined 30+ to Ga. Tech and Syracuse. So I'm not sure why you would feel more confident with those teams? Vegas insider currently has Gonzaga as the #1 team in the country.

 

[ericd7633]

VCU made the FF in 2011 with an OOC SoS of 123
Wichita State made the FF in 2013 with an OOC SoS of 63
George Mason made the FF in 2006 with an overall SoS of 89(can't find OOC SoS numbers) and the P5 opponents they played that year were Wake Forest and Mississippi State and they lost both. If you're going to tell me playing and losing to Wake Forest and Miss St, prepared them to beat Michigan State, UNC and Uconn in the tournament, I'm going to call bull shit.

 

[rmilia1]

Zags should playv2 teams from ACC, B10, B12, SEC, BE, P12 and a preseason tourney ( obviously they couldn't okay all those because that'd be 15 games but the preseason tourney would take care of some of those high major games). The reality is every team plays scrubs but the difference us the Zags play them in league so they shouldn't sxhedule them for OOC if they want quality SOS.

 

[jontaejones]

VCU made the FF in 2011 with an OOC SoS of 123
Wichita State made the FF in 2013 with an OOC SoS of 63
George Mason made the FF in 2006 with an overall SoS of 89(can't find OOC SoS numbers) and the P5 opponents they played that year were Wake Forest and Mississippi State and they lost both. If you're going to tell me playing and losing to Wake Forest and Miss St, prepared them to beat Michigan State, UNC and Uconn in the tournament, I'm going to call bull shit.

Basically the argument is the value of playing close games? What is it?

I don't think there's any question that if Gonzaga were in a major conference, they'd be at or near the standings. But they'd also have a few losses and some tight games.

Gonzaga beats teams by 20, 30, 40 points. How much will that hurt them in tourney?

 

[douggie]

I can't speak for GM or Wichita St.'s runs but look back at Butler's OOC schedule those years, Gonzaga's doesn't touch them.

I agree that the tournament is a crap shoot, but my confidence level in Gonzaga isn't very high.

Would you pick them over a seasoned Kansas, Kentucky or Florida St.? Even Duke, Virginia or NC?

You obviously haven't seen Duke play this season.

 

[scoutyjones2]

Zags have never made the FF, and won't this year either

 

[douggie]

Basically the argument is the value of playing close games? What is it?

I don't think there's any question that if Gonzaga were in a major conference, they'd be at or near the standings. But they'd also have a few losses and some tight games.

Gonzaga beats teams by 20, 30, 40 points. How much will that hurt them in tourney?

This is what happened to an undefeated Kentucky team. Get in a close quartered game and you've never been in one all year. You just don't know how to protect a lead or play from behind with a couple minutes to go.

 

[ericd7633]

Basically the argument is the value of playing close games? What is it?

I don't think there's any question that if Gonzaga were in a major conference, they'd be at or near the standings. But they'd also have a few losses and some tight games.

Gonzaga beats teams by 20, 30, 40 points. How much will that hurt them in tourney?

Yeah, that's my point as well. They'd probably have two or three losses, but every team except Baylor from a P5 conference/Big East has two or more losses.

As to your first point that is a valid argument. In my own personal opinion, I don't think playing close games is all too important, but I'm sure there are others out there that will disagree, and that is perfectly fine.

 

[DHoey]

In 09-10 Butler played Northwestern, Minnesota, UCLA, Clemson, Georgetown, Ohio State and Xavier.
In 10-11 Butler played Louisville, Duke, Stanford, Utah, FSU, and Washington State.

I'm failing to see how that is any more of a gauntlet than what Gonzaga schedules? If San Diego State and UW weren't having their worst years in forever, the schedule would look much better. Gonzaga always schedules very aggressively OOC.

And that's fine if your confidence level isn't high on Gonzaga, but it shouldn't be because they play in a mid major league.

Asking me to pick against teams where it's a toss up is hard. But Kentucky lost to Tennessee(the same Tennessee team Gonzaga beat by double digits). FSU just lost by a combined 30+ to Ga. Tech and Syracuse. So I'm not sure why you would feel more confident with those teams? Vegas insider currently has Gonzaga as the #1 team in the country.

What's Gonzaga's toughest 3 game stretch this year?

 

[ericd7633]

What's Gonzaga's toughest 3 game stretch this year?

Probably Arizona, Washington and Akron? But like I said in their early season tournament they had to play Quinnipiac, through no fault of their own. And I'm not sure what makes 3 some type of magic number? You're acting as if this is football and there's some type of strain playing 3 tough games in a row. They'll get a week off almost between the 2nd round and S16 if they make it that far.

 

[DHoey]

Probably Arizona, Washington and Akron? But like I said in their early season tournament they had to play Quinnipiac, through no fault of their own. And I'm not sure what makes 3 some type of magic number? You're acting as if this is football and there's some type of strain playing 3 tough games in a row. They'll get a week off almost between the 2nd round and S16 if they make it that far.

3? 4? 5? Use whatever number of games in a row. You need 4 wins to get to the FF, that's 4 game plans, 4 executions of them, 4 physically draining games in a row. If you don't think being in that situation in the reg season is important or valuable, then we can just agree to disagree.

 

[ericd7633]

3? 4? 5? Use whatever number of games in a row. You need 4 wins to get to the FF, that's 4 game plans, 4 executions of them, 4 physically draining games in a row. If you don't think being in that situation in the reg season is important or valuable, then we can just agree to disagree.

I don't think there's anything really physically exhausting or draining about getting to the Final Four. Honestly, kids are probably more emotionally drained than they are physically. You play 4 games in 10 days. The reason it's hard for any team is because the competition level gradually gets more difficult the further you advance.

Still though, it's been proven numerous times no matter how difficult a schedule you play or how easy a schedule you play, it's all a moot point in a one and done scenario. It's about HOW you play in the tournament not WHO you played during the season.

 

[jontaejones]

I don't think there's anything really physically exhausting or draining about getting to the Final Four. Honestly, kids are probably more emotionally drained than they are physically. You play 4 games in 10 days. The reason it's hard for any team is because the competition level gradually gets more difficult the further you advance.

Still though, it's been proven numerous times no matter how difficult a schedule you play or how easy a schedule you play, it's all a moot point in a one and done scenario. It's about HOW you play in the tournament not WHO you played during the season.

I agree with you that there's no reason Gonzaga cannot make the Final 4. Much less talented teams and undeserving teams have made it. Plus the tourney is a game of odds. The more times you make it, the better chances you have of winning 4 games. Not to mention this year started out looking strong at the top and has since devolved into another free for all year.

It's weak enough where Gonzaga could win it all...

 

[ericd7633]

I agree with you that there's no reason Gonzaga cannot make the Final 4. Much less talented teams and undeserving teams have made it. Plus the tourney is a game of odds. The more times you make it, the better chances you have of winning 4 games. Not to mention this year started out looking strong at the top and has since devolved into another free for all year.

It's weak enough where Gonzaga could win it all...

I agree. Gonzaga is one of about 15 that I could realistically see winning it all, and that doesn't even account for a 6 or worst type of seed making the Elite 8 or FF because it seems to happen all the time.

 

[jontaejones]

I agree. Gonzaga is one of about 15 that I could realistically see winning it all, and that doesn't even account for a 6 or worst type of seed making the Elite 8 or FF because it seems to happen all the time.

I would say as of today the teams that have a 'realistic' shot to win it all are...

Gonaga
KU
Villanova
Arizona
L'ville
UK
UNC
Duke
UCLA

And that's being generous.

Of course, I should qualify that by saying the team that won it all last year I did not have on my 'realistic' list.

 

[ericd7633]

I would say as of today the teams that have a 'realistic' shot to win it all are...

Gonaga
KU
Villanova
Arizona
L'ville
UK
UNC
Duke
UCLA

And that's being generous.

Of course, I should qualify that by saying the team that won it all last year I did not have on my 'realistic' list.

I'd throw Oregon on that list if their healthy. As well as Florida State, Wisconsin, and UVA.

 

[jontaejones]

I'd throw Oregon on that list if their healthy. As well as Florida State, Wisconsin, and UVA.

FSU has the horses, but it's so rare that a program comes out of nowhere to win like that. Usually there's some buildup.

UVA, I just think this is not their year. Next year, they will be tremendous.

Oregon I should have thrown in. I didn't because they were University of Oregon basketball, but then I remembered I picked them to win the PAC-12 over two teams I threw on that list.

Wisconsin has all of the pedigree but I just don't feel it from this team. I could be convinced to throw them and UVA in, but not FSU...