Am I crazy to draft down?

[The Foot]

TK, I wrote this on the Kaeps thread.

I keep hearing the loss of Crabtree will hurt Kaeps, but in reality Crabtree was irrelevant. That fact is Kaep basically made Crabtree into an elite wr, he could do it with anyone. The fact that Kaep chose to throw to him was really unrelated. Kaep will just move on and pick another wr/te to make great. Boldin fits the bill nicely or Davis. Mark my words one of them will be the new Crab. Crab is not elite he just was the beneficiary of having and elite QB. Just like on GB or NO or NE every wr seems to be lights out. Well it's not a coincidence they keep having all these out of now where great wrs. Same will happen for Kaeps wrs. Just my two sense I could be wrong.

I agree with the guys that a 1st rounder is bat crazy but if I knew for certain with out a doubt that someone was going to try and reach for him the second I'd be forced to way over pay for him, cause I would! That's how good I think he will be.

 

[The Foot]

Also I will add that I watched him in college and he did things you are not supposed to be able to do on a football field. I also base my feelings on his coach, Coach Harbaugh who jumped at the chance to start him over Smith and we are talking about a Qb who was winning and winning a lot and Harbaugh still benched him in favor of Kaep when he was still untested.

But the biggest determining factor with Kaeps that makes my "playdar" believe he will be a break out player like no other is not because he has had another year to learn the playbook, nor is it because he has reportedly been working out harder that he has ever before (he started 2 weeks after the superbowl). The single greatest reason I believe he will have a great chance to unseat the likes of Brees, Brady, or Rodgers is because for the first time in as long as I can remember "the skulled one" is high on the same player I am. I can not remember that ever being the case so for me the moons are aligning for this guy! lol.

You're gonna enjoy watching him play! And if you own him you will be so glad you do!

 

[TREFF]

!

::hdn:

***wtf happened to the disclaimer??**

 

[tlance]

There are exceptions to Tlance's rule. For example, I'd draft George Blanda as my K in 1961 in the first no matter what, because he'd give me like 250 points more than any other K.

So if you think Kaepernick will give you say 150 points more than any other QB, then drafting him in the first makes sense. Say 4000 passing yards, 40 passing TDs, 1000 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs, and 5 INTs.

Not true Wil. If you can safely get him in the 3rd, taking him in the first is still wrong. Regardless of how well he performs. When Rogers and Brees are being drafted mid-second, you would be awfully foolish to draft Kaeps in the first, even if he blows Mike Vick's 2010 campaign out of the water. You would not be maximizing your roster.

Just because I think Darren McFadden will be a top 5 RB this year (I don't really) does not mean I am drafting him as such. If you are super high on a player, then you need to figure his ADP and reach a round or a round and a half early. If someone else beats you to the punch, then they pay a heavy price to do that.

Kaeps has been going late 4th, early 5th in most mocks I have done. Taking him in the 3rd would be pretty safe. If you don't risk losing him by waiting a little, you lose all the value of the pick by reaching too early.

Tavon Austin is another example. If you think that he is a top 5 WR, then draft him in round 5, which is still pretty safe instead of taking him in round 3. Here is why:

Fake Draft with mid first pick

1- Kaeps
2- CJ1K
3- T. Austin
4- Leveon Bell
5- Eric Decker

1- Charles
2- CJ1K
3- Kaeps
4- J. Nelson
5- T. Austin

Which hypothetical team would give you a better start? By waiting, you turn Leveon Bell into Jamal Charles, or some other RB you like in round 1.

 

[TREFF]

The single greatest reason I believe he will have a great chance to unseat the likes of Brees, Brady, or Rodgers is because for the first time in as long as I can remember "the skulled one" is high on the same player I am. I can not remember that ever being the case so for me the moons are aligning for this guy! lol

not nearly as high, nor as ridiculously insane about the advice I'd give in getting him on your team.

ABSOLUTELY NO EARLIER THAN 3RD, PREFERABLY 4TH

 

[SEC Official]

I agree pick 3 even through 14 are all kind of close. I would rather target 2 guys at 12 n 13.

I would rather be late 10-12 than mid-round. Even early kills you if you #1 - #3 don't perform.

the two times I won my league, I was sitting in the #12 spot.

 

[Barilko]

not nearly as high, nor as ridiculously insane about the advice I'd give in getting him on your team.

ABSOLUTELY NO EARLIER THAN 3RD, PREFERABLY 4TH

 

[Barilko]

That is a losing recipe in all fantasy sports. It is all about value.

I don't care how bad you want Kaeps or how good he ends up being. If you reach for him in the first, second, or even third round, you are losing tons of value. If another owner makes the mistake of drafting Kaeps too early, smile and say "nice pick". Committing to certain players before the draft and reaching too early for them is the best way I know of to draft a shitty team.

If you draft Kaeps in the first round and he ends up being the #1 QB, does that make it a good pick? No, it does not. If you reach for a player in the first that you could have taken in the 4th, then you aren't helping your team because you missed the opportunity to draft a stud RB that you will not be able to make up for later.

If your goal is to build the best team, you have to be flexible and take values where you find them in order to do it. If that means that you miss on some of your favorite players, so be it. If your goal is to draft your favorite players and to have fun regardless of your record, then do that. Just don't be surprised when your Kaeps led team is 3-10.

Absolutely Perfect summation hey Kaps may rock but no chance before round 4 and myself i wouldnt even go in 4 rather have my 2rb or 2 wr in 4 whatever i'm missing..


and here i was thinking this thread was dead when Joe said thanks boys

NICE WORK GUYS....

 

[Barilko]

Kaps in the 1st RD? You can get Ryan in the 4th/5th and even if you miss him there's Wilson/RG III/Luck still available in most mocks right now. Plus with the Crabtree injury doesn't that concern owners who are high on Kaps?

Exactly

 

[Sam Sportboy]

There are exceptions to Tlance's rule. For example, I'd draft George Blanda as my K in 1961 in the first no matter what, because he'd give me like 250 points more than any other K.

So if you think Kaepernick will give you say 150 points more than any other QB, then drafting him in the first makes sense. Say 4000 passing yards, 40 passing TDs, 1000 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs, and 5 INTs.

Thanks Will!

 

[Sam Sportboy]

 

[TK21775]

I agree with tlance, I think Kaps a good QB but not as a 1st rounder. QB and even WR is very deep this year that I'd want to capitalize on a RB 1st round instead of a QB with such a deep pool of QB's to pick from. Also if you're picking Kaps that early I'd want a solid back-up. Not saying he's injury prone but running QB's always seem to miss a few games

 

[The Foot]

Lol, guys I think round 4 is where he will go too, and that will be perfect. But if I knew someone was planning to get him ONLY THEN WOULD I HAVE TO GO UP AND GET HIM. My other choices if I lost Kaeps would be.

1. Brees - who I just can't stand for some reason.
2. Rodgers - ditto
3. Manning - I am a little worried he gets hurt this year.
4. RG3 - more worried he gets hurt this year
5. Russel - who with harvin there would be a fine saftly net pick if Kaeps was picked before i got to him, but with Harvin out he can't rival Kapes.
6. Cam - really diod not like what I saw last year.

after that there is no one I'd even consider at QB this year. I dont want to just get by with the likes of a Romo, Cutler, Eli, or even Flacco. I don't want to get by at QB I want to crush it and even though Brees or Rodgers could do close maybe be better than Kaeps - for me - I'm not a fan of those guys.

Disclaimer: This advice is not intended for the beginner.

 

[TK21775]

Lol, guys I think round 4 is where he will go too, and that will be perfect. But if I knew someone was planning to get him ONLY THEN WOULD I HAVE TO GO UP AND GET HIM. My other choices if I lost Kaeps would be.

1. Brees - who I just can't stand for some reason.
2. Rodgers - ditto
3. Manning - I am a little worried he gets hurt this year.
4. RG3 - more worried he gets hurt this year
5. Russel - who with harvin there would be a fine saftly net pick if Kaeps was picked before i got to him, but with Harvin out he can't rival Kapes.
6. Cam - really diod not like what I saw last year.

after that there is no one I'd even consider at QB this year. I dont want to just get by with the likes of a Romo, Cutler, Eli, or even Flacco. I don't want to get by at QB I want to crush it and even though Brees or Rodgers could do close maybe be better than Kaeps - for me - I'm not a fan of those guys.

Disclaimer: This advice is not intended for the beginner.

NO Matt Ryan on that list?

 

[The Foot]

I am not all that high on the elite rb crop this year as far as who is in the top 10 idp. Im not saying it would be a great idea but I could very well live with drafting a Kaep if need be in the first. Then try my luck at drafting a Chris Johnson in second and an MJD in the third. then go wallace, austin, austin (who I can't wait to see tonight. That'd be a great core for me. I could back up MJD in case of injury with Bryce brown who I believe will be the next Spiller as far as meteoric movement in draft charts from one year to the next are concerned. And I'd be very happy with that.

 

[The Foot]

YK yes ryan should be on that list. He would be number 7. but still I am not a big fan of his either so for me the fun of playing fantasy football is owning guys I am a fan of so i can root them on. Ever since Miami passed on him and drafted old Jake long I'd been turned off on him. Still that said he could be a new Rodgers or brees. He could lead the league too but he seems to missing something that kapes and rodgers and brees all have, Can't put my finger on it.

 

[TK21775]

YK yes ryan should be on that list. He would be number 7. but still I am not a big fan of his either so for me the fun of playing fantasy football is owning guys I am a fan of so i can root them on. Ever since Miami passed on him and drafted old Jake long I'd been turned off on him. Still that said he could be a new Rodgers or brees. He could lead the league too but he seems to missing something that kapes and rodgers and brees all have, Can't put my finger on it.

Coaching, it seems that once the Falcons get a lead they go conservative. Last year Ryan had huge first halfs only to score minimum points in the 3rd and 4th quarter. However after their loss in the playoffs this year I would think that the coaching staff will want to stay aggressive, especially with the defense that Atlanta has

 

[The Foot]

Yes you are right TK that makes a lot of sense. He could be a all out stud if that happens.