Am I crazy to draft down?

[averagejoe]

I just landed the #5 spot in a 12-team IDP, standard scoring league that is pretty competitive. (I've been in this league for close to 10 years.) I'm thinking of asking the guy with the number 12 pick if he wants to trade draft spots straight up. If he says "no" (and not completely sure that he would), then I'd ask the guy with the 11th pick. But that's as low as I'll trade, either 12th spot or 11th.

I have my reasons. To be honest, I see a lot of parity in the ADP #4 picks through 10 or 11. So I don't feel that I'm really risking anything by way of "quality." But then in the 2nd round, I think the tier of players is more subjective.

So I'd really like to lock up a couple of players by drafting down to do it.

I should add that I usually end up near the bottom of the draft and I kind of like the vantage point from there.

Am I crazy?

Am I out on a ledge here? Somebody talk me down. The draft is in 2 weeks.

 

[The Foot]

Crazy like a fox!

 

[The Foot]

I agree pick 3 even through 14 are all kind of close. I would rather target 2 guys at 12 n 13.

 

[TK21775]

You know the league since you've been there for 10 seasons but I've been doing mocks with the #5 - 7 spot and I'm grabbing players that I like lower than the top guys projected at my spot. It's nice to have that back-to-back selection but also a long time for that next pick to come. This season I'm liking picking towards the end more than I am the front

 

[tlance]

I think 5 may be the ideal spot for me, so I would not do this, but I understand your logic. I guess it depends what you want out of your 2nd pick. If you want to go RB, RB, then 11 is your ideal spot (not 12). If RB + elite WR is what you want, then I think the combo of picks 5 and 19 will yield better results.

D. Thomas and Julio Jones are close enough to Green, but I feel that your RB at 5 will have a higher ceiling than the one at 11 or 12.

 

[TK21775]

Just did a mock, here's the 5th spot and 10th spot out of a 10 teamer:

10th:

1. Alfred Morris (Was - RB)
2. Trent Richardson (Cle - RB)
3. Andre Johnson (Hou - WR)
4. Vincent Jackson (TB - WR)
5. Russell Wilson (Sea - QB)
6. Le'Veon Bell (Pit - RB)
7. Montee Ball (Den - RB)
8. Mike Williams (TB - WR)
9. Danario Alexander (SD - WR)
10. Lance Moore (NO - WR)
11. Jared Cook (StL - TE)
12. Jermichael Finley (GB - TE)
13. Cincinnati (Cin - DEF)
14. David Akers (Det - K)
15. Josh Freeman (TB - QB)


5th pick team:
1. Doug Martin
2. Brandon Marshall
3. Chris Johnson
4. Marques Colston
5. Tom Brady
6. Mike Wallace
7. Colin Kaepernick
8. Owen Daniels
9. Denver
10. Blair Walsh
11. Rashard Mendenhall
12. Denarius Moore
13. Aaron Dobson
14. Jordan Cameron
15. Pittsburgh

 

[TREFF]

I wont argue with the logic, But I'd feel better about it from spot 7. I like the top five, and six would be a toss up. Guess that's not much help. Dont think your crazy though, just not something I would do.

 

[The Foot]

on the fip side though Joe at that 5 spot you may have a shot at your boy Jamaal Charles who if he stays healthy could lead the league in fantasy points.

 

[Barilko]

Jeesh Joe i figure that you ask for a little something in the trade and divert some attention away from your motives... (maybe in round 11 you ask for pick 5 back)

however with that being said..i guess you can't fool em anyhow-it has to be some serious players if the league has been going for that many years..

 

[Sam Sportboy]

Jeesh Joe i figure that you ask for a little something in the trade and divert some attention away from your motives... (maybe in round 11 you ask for pick 5 back)

however with that being said..i guess you can't fool em anyhow-it has to be some serious players if the league has been going for that many years..

 

[Sam Sportboy]

Yeah Joe, I just found out I landed the 5 hole in my work league. Actually I think it is a good spot in this league as it A) Is full of 2nd year guys and B) 1 of these guys is a Frisco homer and has been bragging about taking Kaps in the first round and since he picks 3rd it's almost like moving up to #4. Hoping somehow either Foster or Martin fall to me. Since this is a flex league don't think I'll go rogue and try that WR/WR thing.................the rest of them are talking about takin QB's in the first 4 rounds so there will be plenty of value down the line. In your case I might just stand pat or like B suggested see if you can get some kind of compensation for the trade.........will probably go RB/RB at this spot and hope to land either CJ1.2K or SJax in the 2nd.

 

[The Foot]

lol, funny thing sam is that even though it seems like a huge reach to draft Kaeps there. If I had the 3rd pick and i was worried someone would take him before my second round pick and I wouldn't risk losing him and if I couldn't move down in the first I too would take Kaeps that high.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

lol, funny thing sam is that even though it seems like a huge reach to draft Kaeps there. If I had the 3rd pick and i was worried someone would take him before my second round pick and I wouldn't risk losing him and if I couldn't move down in the first I too would take Kaeps that high.

As deep as QB is this year? You would have to be nuts IMO to draft any QB in the first round IMO. Personally (as much as I like Kaps this year) I know darn well I won't be having Kaps on any of my teams this year as I am not taking him in the 3rd round. Now in my money league if he's there in the 4th I might be tempted.

 

[Barilko]

As deep as QB is this year? You would have to be nuts IMO to draft any QB in the first round IMO. Personally (as much as I like Kaps this year) I know darn well I won't be having Kaps on any of my teams this year as I am not taking him in the 3rd round. Now in my money league if he's there in the 4th I might be tempted.

 

[averagejoe]

Thanks guys. I think I've already talked myself down off the ledge about trading down.

I looked at last year's draft (and this is a solo keeper league too). In the first two rounds (24 picks), 10 RB were chosen, 9 WR, 4 QB and 1 TE.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

Thanks guys. I think I've already talked myself down off the ledge about trading down.

I looked at last year's draft (and this is a solo keeper league too). In the first two rounds (24 picks), 10 RB were chosen, 9 WR, 4 QB and 1 TE.

I bet this year will look more like 13 RB's, 3 QB's and 8 WR; 7 if somebody nabs Graham.

 

[TK21775]

Kaps in the 1st RD? You can get Ryan in the 4th/5th and even if you miss him there's Wilson/RG III/Luck still available in most mocks right now. Plus with the Crabtree injury doesn't that concern owners who are high on Kaps?

 

[TREFF]

Plus with the Crabtree injury doesn't that concern owners who are high on Kaps?

In the first is bat crap crazy..For all but maybe one or two QB's, and even that's pushing it this year, but especially for Kaep's, and I'm one of his biggest believers. But as to the Crabtree injury, no not really. Vernon Davis and Boldin, plus former 1st round pick AJ Jenkins, and the recently acquired Austin Collie..Crabtree will hardly be missed..well at least in the games that Collie gets to actually play in and if they actually unleash Davis like they say they're going to, which they're almost forced to do, so I'm buying it this year

 

[tlance]

lol, funny thing sam is that even though it seems like a huge reach to draft Kaeps there. If I had the 3rd pick and i was worried someone would take him before my second round pick and I wouldn't risk losing him and if I couldn't move down in the first I too would take Kaeps that high.

That is a losing recipe in all fantasy sports. It is all about value.

I don't care how bad you want Kaeps or how good he ends up being. If you reach for him in the first, second, or even third round, you are losing tons of value. If another owner makes the mistake of drafting Kaeps too early, smile and say "nice pick". Committing to certain players before the draft and reaching too early for them is the best way I know of to draft a shitty team.

If you draft Kaeps in the first round and he ends up being the #1 QB, does that make it a good pick? No, it does not. If you reach for a player in the first that you could have taken in the 4th, then you aren't helping your team because you missed the opportunity to draft a stud RB that you will not be able to make up for later.

If your goal is to build the best team, you have to be flexible and take values where you find them in order to do it. If that means that you miss on some of your favorite players, so be it. If your goal is to draft your favorite players and to have fun regardless of your record, then do that. Just don't be surprised when your Kaeps led team is 3-10.

 

[wilwhite]

There are exceptions to Tlance's rule. For example, I'd draft George Blanda as my K in 1961 in the first no matter what, because he'd give me like 250 points more than any other K.

So if you think Kaepernick will give you say 150 points more than any other QB, then drafting him in the first makes sense. Say 4000 passing yards, 40 passing TDs, 1000 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs, and 5 INTs.