Alex Smith

[zman1527]

Cool article on Alex Smith. I didn't really want to start a new thread for it.

Alex Smith. Really? Really

Beautiful article, should be read by all. Here is one of many great parts:

"After a road game midway through the season, Harbaugh met Smith's mother for the first time. With unblinking eyes he told her that Alex is the toughest player he has ever coached. As a coach's son and a quarterback who wasn't afraid to mix it up during his playing career, Harbaugh doesn't toss around such accolades loosely."

 

[mem49er]

Insider article from Joyner.

The San Francisco 49ers' quarterbacking history has its share of truly elite passers, namely Joe Montana and Steve Young; but they also have a rich history of quarterbacks who were just below that level (Frankie Albert, Y.A. Tittle and John Brodie).

Current starter Alex Smith certainly doesn't belong in the former group, but it also seems pretty widely accepted that he is nowhere near the latter. Up until recently, there was even a popular train of thought that San Francisco shouldn't consider him as a possible long-term quarterback solution, this despite the fact that he's still only 27 years old.

Smith's limitations were part of my mindset when I wrote an article in October that stated the 49ers were playoff pretenders.

At that moment, it looked like San Francisco's offense simply wouldn't be explosive enough to vault this team to victories over the high-powered offenses that were due to populate the NFC playoffs, and a lot of that started with Smith. It didn't make you an overly negative football watcher to determine that the guy simply lacked a high ceiling.

But my mind started to change about Smith's future and the 49ers' chances while doing research for last week's New Orleans-San Francisco divisional playoff preview article.

Subsequent research this week has gone a long way toward showing that Smith may be ready to take the potential jump into being included on the list of great San Francisco quarterbacks by the end of his career (assuming, of course, that the 49ers re-sign him) -- and he could lead the Niners past the New York Giants on Sunday.

It all starts by realizing just how close his performance has been to what we might consider strong, near-elite status.

His 90.7 passer rating this season was good enough to rank ninth in the league. According to Elias Sports Bureau, on passes thrown 21 or more yards downfield, Smith's 12.7 yards per attempt (YPA) ranked 13th among qualifying quarterbacks and was higher than the YPA marks of Ben Roethlisberger (11.5), Philip Rivers (11.4), Michael Vick (10.9) and Tom Brady (10.9).

Smith's 1.1 percent interception rate was the lowest of any quarterback. That's right, lower than Aaron Rodgers (1.2 percent) or Brady (2 percent). Smith certainly doesn't take the shots down the field that those guys do, but he's curtailed mistakes almost completely over the course of this season.

Smith was also one of the league's most consistent passers. He posted a passer rating of 90 or higher in 50 percent of his starts, a percentage that was tied for ninth-best in the NFL. Smith's eight games with a 90 or higher passer rating was tied for eighth best.

Taking nothing away from 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh, it isn't as if this is a one-year anomaly for Smith.

As noted in an Insider article I wrote in June 2010, Smith had previously posted totals in many of the above categories that were nearly as good as his numbers listed above.

This shows that Smith has boasted near-elite caliber potential for a while. So why hasn't he made the jump to being considered one of the best in the league? Well, after so many years of what we consider unrealized potential, he simply faces a tough time peeling away that label.

Vernon Davis
AP Photo/Paul SakumaVernon Davis came up big against the Saints.

A big part of his lack of progress during those years was the constant changing of head coaches and offensive coordinators, but Harbaugh's success almost assures that won't be an issue.

Another impediment has been the subpar set of pass-catchers Smith has had at his disposal.

Michael Crabtree's 7.7 YPA this year is a solid total, but well below the double-digit YPA expectations that the 49ers almost certainly had for him when they selected him with the 10th pick of the 2009 NFL draft.

Vernon Davis is one of the best tight ends around, but his value is somewhat limited by the fact that Harbaugh's offensive system assures that Davis won't be flexed out as often as he would be in another offense.

The drop-off after those two is quite significant, as Smith's other double-digit wide receiver target options this season were Kyle Williams, Ted Ginn, Josh Morgan and the disappointing Braylon Edwards -- not exactly a Pro Bowl-caliber bunch.

Personnel improvements will go a long way toward helping Smith post top-10-caliber statistics in the near future, but the more important question for today is whether his efficiency will be enough to get San Francisco past the Giants in the NFC Championship Game.

To find out, let's revisit for a moment the findings from last week's aforementioned preview article for the Saints-49ers divisional playoff game that showed the Saints had a 7-25 record under QB Drew Brees when they gave up at least 20 points and lost the turnover battle.

Since the odds were quite good that the Niners would reach the 20-point mark (they had done so in every home game this season) and win the turnover battle (they led the NFL in turnover margin), it meant they could get into a shootout game and win under the right circumstances. In that piece, I wrote that a shootout actually favored San Francisco.

Winning a shootout-style contest will almost certainly be a necessity this week against a Giants team that boasts a terrific wide receiver/tight end group and is playing as effectively as it has all season.

The good news for San Francisco is that New York's trends are just as unfavorable for this setting as the Saints' were last week.

The Giants are 18-31 since 2007 in games in which Eli Manning starts and the team gives up 20 or more points (including a 5-6 mark this season).

That doesn't bode well for Big Blue since the Giants have given up 20 or more points in seven of their nine road games this season (including 27 points to San Francisco in Week 10).

This trend looks even more favorable for the 49ers given that, since 2007, Manning's Giants are 2-25 in games in which they give up 20 or more points and lose the turnover battle (including an 0-5 mark this year). The Niners have won the turnover battle in 15 of 17 games this season, and their turnover margin is a ridiculous 17-1 in their favor in the months of December and January.

They have done this in part because their best coverage cornerback is also their best ball hawk, but also because Smith had a bad decision rate (BDR) of 0.9 percent during that time. Getting under 1 percent in this metric is usually reserved for the likes of Brady and Rodgers, so Smith's BDR is truly a rare accomplishment.

If these trends continue Sunday, Smith will be one step closer to posting an even rarer accomplishment -- a chance at winning a Super Bowl ring. And if he does that, he'll share at least one thing with Montana and Young.

 

[zman1527]

"Smith was also one of the league's most consistent passers. He posted a passer rating of 90 or higher in 50 percent of his starts, a percentage that was tied for ninth-best in the NFL. Smith's eight games with a 90 or higher passer rating was tied for eighth best.

Taking nothing away from 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh, it isn't as if this is a one-year anomaly for Smith.

As noted in an Insider article I wrote in June 2010, Smith had previously posted totals in many of the above categories that were nearly as good as his numbers listed above.

This shows that Smith has boasted near-elite caliber potential for a while."

As I and others have said over the years, the bad teams were not so much Alex fault as it was the coaching and overall talent on O and game planning.

 

[tzill]

"Smith was also one of the league's most consistent passers. He posted a passer rating of 90 or higher in 50 percent of his starts, a percentage that was tied for ninth-best in the NFL. Smith's eight games with a 90 or higher passer rating was tied for eighth best.

Taking nothing away from 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh, it isn't as if this is a one-year anomaly for Smith.

As noted in an Insider article I wrote in June 2010, Smith had previously posted totals in many of the above categories that were nearly as good as his numbers listed above.

This shows that Smith has boasted near-elite caliber potential for a while."

As I and others have said over the years, the bad teams were not so much Alex fault as it was the coaching and overall talent on O and game planning.

I think Trent Dilfer said it best: there are only a few elite QBs. The rest range from mediocre to below average to crap. The difference for those QBs is coaching and the players around them. We're simply seeing how good Alex can be with elite coaching and decent players. I'd expect he'll be even better next year with new WRs and another year in Harbaugh's system.

 

[MHSL82]

Good Article on Whether Alex Can Repeat

 

[mem49er]

Jaws is a fan.

Jim Harbaugh's faith in Alex Smith has paid off for the 49ers - ESPN

 

[zman1527]

Good Article on Whether Alex Can Repeat

Meh. That was a writer setting himself up to be right no matter the outcome.

 

[MHSL82]

Meh. That was a writer setting himself up to be right no matter the outcome.

Oh, the point wasn't good, I agree with you. I meant some of the story about him. Having said that, I meant to post the above article that mem9er posted, but somehow screwed up in both the summary and the link. (Changed my mind about posting what I did, but forgot that I changed my mind - I know, a bit scatter-brained this morning.)

 

[mem49er]

Oh, the point wasn't good, I agree with you. I meant some of the story about him. Having said that, I meant to post the above article that mem9er posted, but somehow screwed up in both the summary and the link. (Changed my mind about posting what I did, but forgot that I changed my mind - I know, a bit scatter-brained this morning.)

Just admit I owned you.

 

[MHSL82]

Just admit I owned you.

As usual, huh? I'm used to it. Been there, done that. Tell me when you have something new besides owning me.

 

[mem49er]

As usual, huh? I'm used to it. Been there, done that. Tell me when you have something new besides owning me.

I owned you and then traded you for Ochocinco, an old football, and a ham sandwich!

 

[MW49ers5]

I owned you and then traded you for Ochocinco, an old football, and a ham sandwich!

Honey glazed or smoked? With or without the crust?

 

[MHSL82]

I owned you and then traded you for Ochocinco, an old football, and a ham sandwich!

Wow, I must be pretty valuable. Old footballs are classic and need I say more about ham sandwiches, with or without crust, you can't lose. Not sure what you can do with Ochocinco, but there's always fillers in every trade.

 

[mem49er]

Honey glazed or smoked? With or without the crust?

Honey glazed, of course! With some mustard, crust optional.

 

[mem49er]

Wow, I must be pretty valuable. Old footballs are classic and need I say more about ham sandwiches, with or without crust, you can't lose. Not sure what you can do with Ochocinco, but there's always fillers in every trade.

Yea, bro. I only buy the best!

 

[MHSL82]

Article that I have no opinion on but want to share with you all. Oh, I should probably tell you what it's about - Author tracks the percentage points of credit people around Smith (including Smith) for Alex becoming who he has become. Obviously not a finished product and we have two more games to win this season, but I'm glad we're talking about this and not about how the lights were too bright for him in the playoffs. I can't say how much this win helped him and how much bad press it saved, or at least, heaven forbid, postponed.

 

[MHSL82]

Another Article about Smith, Manning, and the Number One Pick

 

[MHSL82]

I'm sure that some of you are getting tired of articles, but here's another. I like this one, no matter what you say, zman!

 

[MHSL82]

This is it for me at least tonight. I think this was already here but too tired to check. That's bad of me. Alex would check it if he were a poster and not an NFL quarterback. He's a harder worker than I am, I guess. Article Comparing Troy Aikman and Alex Smith

 

[MW49ers5]

Honey glazed, of course! With some mustard, crust optional.

Ha ha...HG is best!!