AL East 2016 thread

[Bloody Brian Burke]

I don't see the point in this, Danny.

He's in the discussion (though not leading) in IP and ERA, but he's pretty far back in K's and W's, and that's what I said. He's a long shot because of his K's and W's. If he had 190 Ks or 16 wins, he'd be in the conversation.

I don't like W/L, but they're considered by CY voters. If that bothers you, take it up with them.

If you had left it at K's, sure.

The other isn't really relevant - Chris Sale has finished top 5 in Cy voting the past 3 years. His records those three years were 11-14, 12-4, 13-11. Sonny Gray was 3rd in voting last year with 14 wins. Darvish was runner-up at 13-9 in 2013. It's really, really of the least importance it possibly can be at this point. Quintana has other areas he will lose points in (barely top ten in WHIP and K's) but I really doubt W's would matter at all.

 

[tducey]

Good sweep by Toronto this weekend. As to the Royals they're certainly picking the right time of year to get hot.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

If you had left it at K's, sure.

The other isn't really relevant - Chris Sale has finished top 5 in Cy voting the past 3 years. His records those three years were 11-14, 12-4, 13-11. Sonny Gray was 3rd in voting last year with 14 wins. Darvish was runner-up at 13-9 in 2013. It's really, really of the least importance it possibly can be at this point. Quintana has other areas he will lose points in (barely top ten in WHIP and K's) but I really doubt W's would matter at all.

"Wins don't matter. Look at this list of guys who didn't have a lot of wins that didn't win the Cy Young."

lol

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

Can i help you guys with anything?

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Can i help you guys with anything?

That depends. How soft are your hands?

 

[Pastafazul]

just curious what the yankees record is with ellsbury out of line up, not looking too blame weetardee for the loss, but why was he not in 5 zip loss? injury, rest, avg vs pitcher, cough due to common cold?

 

[obxyankeefan]

Joe got himself rung up and he needed to be. This HP Ump has been bad the whole game.


The Yankees lose this game weather the Ump calls it right or not, but it has been bad.

 

[bksballer89]

Joe got himself rung up and he needed to be. This HP Ump has been bad the whole game.


The Yankees lose this game weather the Ump calls it right or not, but it has been bad.

Yep that was a disgrace. Why did the Yankees pitchers have a different strike zone than the Royals pitchers?

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

"Wins don't matter. Look at this list of guys who didn't have a lot of wins that didn't win the Cy Young."

lol

We're talking about him being in the discussion, not winning it.

He has, but at this point I don't see him in the conversation because he doesn't have enough K's or W's.

In case you've forgotten.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Yep that was a disgrace. Why did the Yankees pitchers have a different strike zone than the Royals pitchers?

Yankee fan arguing about favourable strike zone

 

[bksballer89]

Yankee fan arguing about favourable strike zone

I mean it's not the reason they were defeated but it was pretty bad. I don't care if you have a small or large strike zone as long as it is the same for both teams I'm fine with it. Unfortunately that was not the case last night

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

We're talking about him being in the discussion, not winning it.


In case you've forgotten.

Maybe it's a Canadian/American lost in translation thing.

You see, when I'm talking about "in the discussion," it means a reasonable chance to win it.

Right now, the only way he's in the discussion is if you feel the need to add "Quintana isn't going to win the Cy Young" to it. If that's good enough for you, then Quintana's as much "in the discussion" as Jered Weaver.

Quintana doesn't have enough K's or W's given his other "shortfalls."

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Maybe it's a Canadian/American lost in translation thing.

You see, when I'm talking about "in the discussion," it means a reasonable chance to win it.

Right now, the only way he's in the discussion is if you feel the need to add "Quintana isn't going to win the Cy Young" to it. If that's good enough for you, then Quintana's as much "in the discussion" as Jered Weaver.

Quintana doesn't have enough K's or W's given his other "shortfalls."

What? Why would Jared Weaver be in any discussion? Are you mainlining Cuyahoga River water again?

You still aren't making any argument that W's are looked at as a pivotal stat separate from other deciding factors. If you had gone with something like FIP is largely ignored by the voters you would be making a better argument that actually correlates with voting results, but choosing wins as the hill to die on is kinda crazy.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

What? Why would Jared Weaver be in any discussion? Are you mainlining Cuyahoga River water again?

Because he's in the CY discussion in the same way that Quintana is. To wit:

Jose Quintana is not going to win the Cy Young Award.

Jered Weaver is not going to win the Cy Young Award.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Because he's in the CY discussion in the same way that Quintana is. To wit:

Jose Quintana is not going to win the Cy Young Award.

Jered Weaver is not going to win the Cy Young Award.

Yeah but one can get votes whereas the other won't. Votes = in discussion to me.

Anyway, this is going nowhere.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

You still aren't making any argument that W's are looked at as a pivotal stat separate from other deciding factors. If you had gone with something like FIP is largely ignored by the voters you would be making a better argument that actually correlates with voting results, but choosing wins as the hill to die on is kinda crazy.

If you think the majority of the CY voters are looking at FIP, you're out of your mind.

And I'm hardly "choosing wins as the hill to die on." All I've said is that they're considered by CY voters, and they are whether you or I like it or not. I've never said they're the #1 factor - in fact, I pointed out how Hernandez actually won a CY in 2010 with a 13-12 record. I've merely said they are considered.

Given my perception that you have more than a cursory interest in baseball statistics and projections, I'm assuming that you've heard of Bill James and Rob Neyer, and that I don't need to introduce them or their accomplishments. They came up with a formula for predicting the CY winners based on pitchers' final season stats. The formula has correctly identified something like 78% of the CY winners over the last couple decades. Here's the formula:

Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB (see below)

VB: Victory Bonus is a 12-point bonus awarded for leading your team to the division championship

So, you may hate wins and losses, and I may hate wins and loses, and Jesus Christ himself might hate wins and losses, but there is a correlation between them and Cy Young Awards.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Votes = in discussion to me.

Meh. Typically by 3rd or 4th place, a pitcher isn't much closer to winning a CY than you are.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

If you think the majority of the CY voters are looking at FIP, you're out of your mind.

And I'm hardly "choosing wins as the hill to die on." All I've said is that they're considered by CY voters, and they are whether you or I like it or not. I've never said they're the #1 factor - in fact, I pointed out how Hernandez actually won a CY in 2010 with a 13-12 record. I've merely said they are considered.

Given my perception that you have more than a cursory interest in baseball statistics and projections, I'm assuming that you've heard of Bill James and Rob Neyer, and that I don't need to introduce them or their accomplishments. They came up with a formula for predicting the CY winners based on pitchers' final season stats. The formula has correctly identified something like 78% of the CY winners over the last couple decades. Here's the formula:



So, you may hate wins and losses, and I may hate wins and loses, and Jesus Christ himself might hate wins and losses, but there is a correlation between them and Cy Young Awards.

How many has that formula predicted in the past, say, 7 years? Because I fully believe once upon a time they looked at wins as a part of the equation but I think many of the more analytically-inclined voters today don't even look at that column on the stat sheet when making their decisions and would be far more inclined to look at something like FIP as a large factor in their decision.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Meh. Typically by 3rd or 4th place, a pitcher isn't much closer to winning a CY than you are.

Typically, by 2nd place they aren't. Last year people thought Keuchel and Price would be tight. Keuchel got 22 first place votes, Price got 8. In the two previous years nobody other than the winner got more than 1 first place vote in either league.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

How many has that formula predicted in the past, say, 7 years? Because I fully believe once upon a time they looked at wins as a part of the equation but I think many of the more analytically-inclined voters today don't even look at that column on the stat sheet when making their decisions and would be far more inclined to look at something like FIP as a large factor in their decision.

Here are the CY Winners over the last seven with the pitchers the formula predicted bolded.

2015
AL - David Price
NL - Jake Arrieta

2014
AL - Corey Kluber
NL - Clayton Kershaw

2013
AL - Max Scherzer
NL - Clayton Kershaw

2012
AL - David Price
NL - RA Dickey

2011
AL - Justin Verlander
NL - Clayton Kershaw

2010
AL - Felix Hernandez
NL - Roy Halladay

2009
AL - Zack Greinke
NL - Tim Lincecum

So, over your arbitrary pick of seven years, the formula has tagged 71%. Your point was that the formula likely wouldn't apply to current events, but it's tagged 90% over the last five.

I believe we're headed in a direction where wins and losses won't matter (and that's a good thing), but we're not there yet.

It's time to give up the ghost on this one, Danny. Unless you're inclined to try to move the goal posts again, I'll make this easy for you; just cut and past the following sentence in the comment section and click the black "Post Reply" button.

Slinky, I realize now that even though you and I both dislike the W/L stats for baseball pitchers, on some level, they're still considered by some Cy Young voters.