threelittleturds
anteater
What? A rookie needs to get stronger? That never happens.
What are people's expectations for a LATE 1st round pick. Especially at the WR position. He was not a top 10 so called "elite talent" pick. He needs at least one year to develop and make a difference. This was one if of the main reasons why I kept saying that we drafted the “wrong Jenkins”. Had we drafted Janoris 1st, the Rams would have opted for AJ Jenkins in the early 2nd. This means that the Jets would have settled for either Brian Quick or Stephen Hill - and which ever of the two was left, we would have drafted. So our options for targeting a receiver in the 2nd round would have been Brian Quick / Stephen Hill / Ruben Randle. Still I would not have drafted a WR in the 2nd round. Just like they did, I would have kept the LaMichael James pick. In the 3rd round I would have selected the best guard available or traded it like they did. 4th Round is when I would have selected a WR (knowing that I got Crab, Moss, Williams, Manningham) - and targeted someone like Juron Criner or Marvin Jones. Criner preferably!
What are people's expectations for a LATE 1st round pick. Especially at the WR position. He was not a top 10 so called "elite talent" pick. He needs at least one year to develop and make a difference. This was one if of the main reasons why I kept saying that we drafted the “wrong Jenkins”. Had we drafted Janoris 1st, the Rams would have opted for AJ Jenkins in the early 2nd. This means that the Jets would have settled for either Brian Quick or Stephen Hill - and which ever of the two was left, we would have drafted. So our options for targeting a receiver in the 2nd round would have been Brian Quick / Stephen Hill / Ruben Randle. Still I would not have drafted a WR in the 2nd round. Just like they did, I would have kept the LaMichael James pick. In the 3rd round I would have selected the best guard available or traded it like they did. 4th Round is when I would have selected a WR (knowing that I got Crab, Moss, Williams, Manningham) - and targeted someone like Juron Criner or Marvin Jones. Criner preferably!
I wasn't a fan of the pick from the get go. I thought he was a reach and for a late first round pick i would hope he could at least show up in shape. Granted it is still very early, but i want to see more dedication from this guy.
Plenty of late first round picks have done well enough to at least contribute their rookie year.
Hakeem Nicks (47 rec, 790 yards, 6 TD's)
Dez Bryant (45 rec, 561 yards, 6 TD's)
Percy Harvin (60 rec, 790 Yards, 6 Td's)
Kenny Britt (702 yards, 3 TD's)
Jeremy Maclin (56 rec, 773 yards, 4 TD's)
This isn't including numbers for guys like Mike Wallace and DeSean Jackson who had great rookie years and were drafted later.
If he can reach anything close to any of those guys numbers i will be happy. Those are my expectations.
Those expectations might be on the high side, given our philosophy on offense (I expect us to open it up a bit, but not top-10 in passing) and what's ahead of him on the depth chart. Something along the lines of Bryant's production is possible, but I'd be somewhat surprised if he broke 700 yards. That'd be 450 more yards than our second WR had this year, granted that was a bit of a disaster.
You bring up a good point about our style of Offense, but it was more in response to what bingo was saying about expectations for a "LATE first round pick" and compared to other WR's drafted late in the first round the past few years, the results have been basically what i listed above. Jonathan Baldwin might be the exception.
If you go back a few more years, there are other examples of guys who were pretty quiet year one, but went on to become pretty effective. Roddy White, Jordy Nelson, Demaryius Thomas, and Robert Meachem (sat out year one, under 300 yards year two) are prime examples, though Nelson was a high second instead of a first. Of course, there are also a lot of guys who were pretty quiet until they disappeared from the league.
What I found surprising was the number of guys who had strong rookie seasons but never really hit their stride. Several guys like that.
I know you said this, but Nelson was a 2nd round pick. Still, he 33 passes for 366 yards and 2 TD's. If we include him then we have to include Mike Wallace, DeSean Jackson, and Torrey Smith.
Wasn't Demaryius Thomas hurt his rookie year? I know he only played in 10 games. Roddy White caught 29 passes for 446 yards, and 3 TD's during his rookie campaign. I would be happy if Jenkins could accomplish those numbers. Lets all hope Jenkins is better than Maechem. He had Drew Brees and in his best season he only racked up 722 yards receiving.
What do you suggest are reasonable numbers for his rookie season?