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Rock Strongo
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Barnwell: Realistic 2019 goals for the NFL's 10 worst teams

Denver Broncos
FPI chance to make the playoffs: 17.2%
Clear signs of development from their young receivers. John Elway has sought to rebuild his team's receiving corps over the past two drafts, drafting wideouts Courtland Sutton and DaeSean Hamilton in 2018 before trading down and taking tight end Noah Fant in the first round in April. The refresh is overdue; Elway traded away Demaryius Thomas last season and has 32-year-old Emmanuel Sanders entering the final year of his contract in 2019, while prior draft picks like Cody Latimer, Carlos Henderson, Jeff Heuerman and Jake Butt have failed to turn into useful pass-catchers.
The Broncos need at least one of these guys to look like a starting receiver and an offensive building block by the end of 2019. Fant has the loftiest draft pedigree as a first-rounder, but the list of rookie tight ends who delivered an immediate impact isn't long, as just four tight ends since the 1970 merger have topped 700 receiving yards during their debut campaigns. He also left Monday's preseason game against the 49ers with an ankle injury. Even beyond what appears to be a minor ankle issue, it might be more realistic to expect Fant to harness his potentially devastating athleticism in 2020.
First-time offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello might instead hope for one of his wideouts to make a second-year leap alongside Sanders, who made his return to the field on Monday night as part of rehabbing his torn Achilles. Sutton's role in the offense grew when Thomas was traded and was expected to rise further after Sanders went down, but during those final four games without either veteran, Sutton was third on the team in targets (25) and receiving yards (146), trailing both Tim Patrick and Hamilton. The latter's versatility led to 38 targets over four games, although Hamilton averaged just 7.3 yards across his 25 receptions during that stretch.
The problem for Hamilton, in a way, might be Scangarello. The Broncos imported their new coordinator from San Francisco, where Scangarello had worked under Kyle Shanahan. The former 49ers and Falcons offensive coordinator loves to use a fullback and runs plenty of plays with two or more tight ends on the field, and when the Broncos use either of those options, it will likely be at Hamilton's expense. The late addition of Theo Riddick also seems more likely to eat into Hamilton's targets than those of any of the other wideouts. Sutton didn't impress over the final month of the season, but he has the best chance of breaking out in 2019.
A turnaround from Garett Bolles. Teams that draft over-aged players take significant risk. The time frame for developing players who are older than typical rookies is shortened by their advancing age, and while the hope is obviously to find a more mature player who can step in immediately, that hasn't often worked out. Over the past 20 years, there have been eight first-rounders drafted as they entered their age-25 season or older. One -- Cowboys corner Terence Newman -- made a Pro Bowl. The likes of David Terrell, Danny Watkins, Peria Jerry and Brandon Weeden all failed to impress.
It's too early to give up on Ravens 2018 first-rounder Hayden Hurst, but the Broncos are on the precipice with their 2017 first-round pick. Having turned 27 in May, Bolles is one week older than the team's right tackle, Ja'Wuan James, who just signed a massive deal after completing his fifth pro campaign. Bolles just finished his second season and has a serious problem: penalties. Since entering the league, he has drawn 29 flags and a staggering 21 offensive holding calls. No other lineman in the league has topped 13 over that same two-year span.
David DeCastro and Alejandro Villanueva during his time in Pittsburgh. Munchak's most important project in 2019 is Bolles, who committed another holding penalty on one of his 33 snaps during Monday's loss to the 49ers. Camp reports have suggested that the Broncos are pleased with Bolles, but new coach Vic Fangio has also singled out utility lineman Elijah Wilkinson for praise, too. With Bolles' fifth-year option decision looming after the season, the Broncos need to figure out whether he's a building block.

Detroit Lions
FPI chance to make the playoffs: 16.9%
A 16th-place finish in pass defense DVOA. When the Lions fired former Colts coach Jim Caldwell, it was no surprise to see them opt for a defensive-minded coach in former Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia. Year 1 didn't go great on or off the field, with Patricia's area of expertise the team's biggest problem. The Lions dropped from 19th to 27th in defensive DVOA, including a 31st-ranked finish in pass defense DVOA. They were the league's worst pass defense against No. 1 wideouts, sixth-worst against No. 2 wideouts, worst against third wideouts and seventh-worst against tight ends. There's room for improvement.
The Lions made major defensive investments this offseason, though general manager Bob Quinn did spend his first-round pick on tight end T.J. Hockenson. Detroit essentially swapped Ezekiel Ansah for Trey Flowers, which should be an upgrade in terms of sheer availability before even getting to how the two edge rushers play. The team then imported defensive tackle Mike Daniels after he was surprisingly cut by the Packers over the summer. The names are certainly impressive, and while the Lions finished fifth in adjusted sack rate last season, they were 29th in pressure rate. They weren't going to turn a league-high 30.5% of their pressures into sacks again, so adding Flowers and Daniels should increase the pressure figures for Patricia's defense.
Total QBR allowed. Although the Lions have a Pro Bowl cornerback in Darius Slay, they need to do better in the secondary. Quinn's other major offseason investment was to sign Justin Coleman to a four-year, $36 million pact to take over as Detroit's slot corner. There are red flags in making this sort of deal for a player who was bouncing around the waiver wire in years past and just spent two years in service of Pete Carroll in Seattle, but even adequacy would be an upgrade for Detroit.
Detroit will pit disappointing 2017 second-rounder Teez Tabor against veteran Rashaan Melvin for the other starting spot, and there has been little evidence of Tabor playing well as a pro. His speed has been a notable problem, which shouldn't really be a surprise for a player whose 40-yard dash time was in the 11th percentile coming out of college. Melvin is coming off a messy year in Oakland but has impressed in the past as a man-to-man corner, which is how the Lions typically like to cover under Patricia. No team likes to give up on a second-round pick after two years, but unless Tabor suddenly morphs into a different player, the Lions might not have a choice.
The young player the Lions might need to come along quickest, though, could be safety Tracy Walker. They took Walker in the third round of the 2018 draft -- two rounds before Walker himself believed he would come off of the board -- and parted ways with veteran Glover Quin to create a starting job for Walker this offseason. The now-retired Quin had slipped after years of impressive play, and the Lions improved by 13.6 points of passer rating and 9.3 points of Total QBR with Walker on the field a year ago. They are deep with safety options in Quandre Diggs, Tavon Wilsonand third-round pick Will Harris, but Walker is the most promising. If he has a breakout year, it will be that much easier for Patricia's defense to jump from 31st to league-average in 2019.
Damon Harrison should take care of the rest. Detroit hasn't posted a top-15 defense by DVOA since 2014; that was also the last time the Lions topped nine wins.