AJ Burnett - I'm intrigued by this.

[evolver115]

Per reports the paperwork will be submitted to Selig's office today. It needs his approval due to the money involved.

It will be interesting to see who the Yankees get in the deal and who was the closest on the guesses.

Also I see no reason why Selig won't approve the deal but it is the Pirates and Yankees he can do something stupid and make it even harder for the Pirates to compete (sorry my rant).

Hopefully it's just a sack of baseballs and some bubblegum. The fact that this still boils down to a salary dump by the Yanks should exclude any real talent going their way in the deal. Just some suspects... errr... prospects

 

[thedddd]

Looks to be official. The Pirates are taking on 13 million but the debate is on the "prospects". I hope I use that term loosely.

Per the one report it says low level maybe Rinku Singh will go in the deal!


http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/pirates-yankees-agree-to-aj-burnett-trade.html

 

[evolver115]

Dejan is saying it's

RHP Diego Moreno and another low-level Class A prospect in deal. That prospect is NOT elite.

 

[evolver115]

Espeon is reporting this:

outfielder Exicardo Cayones to New York in return, sources said. Moreno, a 25-year-old from Venezuela, has split the past two seasons between the Class A and Double-A minor league teams. Cayones, who is 20, spent 2011 in Class A.

 

[thecrow124]

Excellent, gave up nothing for him. Neil must still have some sort of man chub for Moreno if those are the two prospects they were talking about. Both are a huge step down from Kingham, which was the first name we heard they asked for. I don't care if this has a tragic ending, I still like the fact that for the first time since coming to Pittsburgh Neil looks like he wants to win at the major league level.

 

[evolver115]

Excellent, gave up nothing for him. Neil must still have some sort of man chub for Moreno if those are the two prospects they were talking about. Both are a huge step down from Kingham, which was the first name we heard they asked for. I don't care if this has a tragic ending, I still like the fact that for the first time since coming to Pittsburgh Neil looks like he wants to win at the major league level.

I agree, crow. This looks like a honest to goodness major-league trade for Neil. I can't say I know much about either of the two suspects he shipped to NY for AJ, but neither of them sound like they have high ceilings.

It is a big chunk of change for the Pirates to take on, considering the current payroll, but it seems like it is worthwhile.

 

[thecrow124]

I agree, crow. This looks like a honest to goodness major-league trade for Neil. I can't say I know much about either of the two suspects he shipped to NY for AJ, but neither of them sound like they have high ceilings.

It is a big chunk of change for the Pirates to take on, considering the current payroll, but it seems like it is worthwhile.

Two years ago Moreno was thought to be on the fast track to being the Pirates closer, then all the sudden he got to Altoona and got shelled and has been getting shelled every time he attempts AA.

Cayonez had a good year, but nothing great, two years ago, but bombed at class A last year. No power, but has hit for decent average before last year.

Still nothing that should ever see a major league stadium, unless Moreno figures something out.

 

[steelparrot]

I think its a good trade and it wouldnt suprise me if he has an era under 4 next season... getting 200 innings out of him with make the bullpen better to boot, and we gave up 2 prospects we wont miss.

If noone will sign a contract with the Pirates unless we pay double market rate, this is the only way to add a solid veteran player to the team.

 

[thedddd]

Yeah Moreno's time as a prospect is done. I doubt Cayonez will ever go any further.

I like the deal and how they split up the numbers he is a 5 million dollar pitcher this year for the Pirates so in essence he replaced Paul Maholm. He should be able to eat close to 180 innings and for 5 million this year that is very nice. Next year at 8 million still not bad if he pitches well but there is a good chance he might be traded before that is all paid to a team in need of pitching.

 

[element1286]

Works for me, always wondered what happened to Moreno, but since he's 26 and still hasn't had success above A+ I can't really say it was much to give up, he's got a live arm though.

 

[magnumo]

I'm sorry about paying as much as $13 mill for Burnett, but at least neither of the "prospects" appears on any of the top 20 or top 30 Pirate Prospects lists I've seen (and I've been collecting those prospect lists during the entire off-season). As many others have said, I'd rather give up money than prospects.

Hopefully, Burnett will pitch well enough to justify the $13 mill.

 

[Darkstone42]

I like it!


And that's all I have to say about that.

 

[Etrius24]

I am very excited... NH looks like he won this trade. As has been stated...Nothing going back the other way in terms of Elite or even blue chip prospects... 13 million is not terrible... It is not that far fetched to conceive that He might even be a decent value at that price... And the Bucs have the money to spend and have been looking for a place to spend it.

Win, win, win!

Now if only they could somehow get another bat in here for the offense...*sigh*

 

[sychmd]

bedard and burnett for maholm.
not sure but i think the 2012 salaries are close to a wash, and we have better trade bait to a contender of a pitcher with a ring and postseason experience if we can package burnett and a couple high prospects for an elite mlb ready hitter at trade deadline from a fat contender.
glad we kept the prospects we value most.

 

[magnumo]

bedard and burnett for maholm.

I like that way of looking at it. Hopefully, it'll wind up as Bedard and Burnett for Maholm and Correia (even better, especially if NH can get something of value for Correia). Then again, maybe Correia will surpise, and pitch as he did early in 2011.

not sure but i think the 2012 salaries are close to a wash, and we have better trade bait to a contender of a pitcher with a ring and postseason experience if we can package burnett and a couple high prospects for an elite mlb ready hitter at trade deadline from a fat contender.
glad we kept the prospects we value most.

I think you're on target about the salaries, if you're comparing against Maholm's declined option, and that seems appropriate.

I agree on your "trade bait" notion, too, with a couple of qualifications:

1. It assumes that Burnett performs as we all hope (which I don't see as a sure thing).

2. The Pirates' $8 mill portion of Burnett's 2013 salary MAY deter some teams (perhaps that's why you used the phrase "fat contender").

 

[sychmd]

I like that way of looking at it. Hopefully, it'll wind up as Bedard and Burnett for Maholm and Correia (even better, especially if NH can get something of value for Correia). Then again, maybe Correia will surpise, and pitch as he did early in 2011.



I think you're on target about the salaries, if you're comparing against Maholm's declined option, and that seems appropriate.

I agree on your "trade bait" notion, too, with a couple of qualifications:

1. It assumes that Burnett performs as we all hope (which I don't see as a sure thing).

2. The Pirates' $8 mill portion of Burnett's 2013 salary MAY deter some teams (perhaps that's why you used the phrase "fat contender").

not sure if i am copying your post correctly, but that is my intention.
was comparing to the 9+M maholm option.

i think burnett is trade bait even if only average as usually not much pitching available and everybody needs it. he has playoff experience. and hte pirates wont have anything invested in him unless they have to pick up some of 2013 salary.

fat meaning trade partner has money to pick up 2013 8M, but more importantly they have a MLB ready hitting stud at a position they are already stocked and have excess to give up.

ideally, looking ahead, our 2013 rotation looks like:
cole, morton, mcdonald, karstens, and either bedard/locke/owens/zvr
2014 adds taillon to cole, morton, mcdonald and one of the others.

 

[magnumo]

not sure if i am copying your post correctly, but that is my intention.
was comparing to the 9+M maholm option.

i think burnett is trade bait even if only average as usually not much pitching available and everybody needs it. he has playoff experience. and hte pirates wont have anything invested in him unless they have to pick up some of 2013 salary.

fat meaning trade partner has money to pick up 2013 8M, but more importantly they have a MLB ready hitting stud at a position they are already stocked and have excess to give up.

ideally, looking ahead, our 2013 rotation looks like:
cole, morton, mcdonald, karstens, and either bedard/locke/owens/zvr
2014 adds taillon to cole, morton, mcdonald and one of the others.

(Yes - your quote of my post worked fine on my end.)

Fair enough on your reply..... makes sense to me.

One comment: My current expectation would delay both Cole and Taillon by a year, but I hope both develop rapidly enough to fulfill your projection.

 

[magnumo]

To sychmd

not sure if i am copying your post correctly, but that is my intention.

After sending my previous reply, a couple of additional thoughts occurred to me while wife and I were on our way to a local restaurant for dinner. Both thoughts were activated by the first sentence in your post (quoted above).

1. It appears important to you (as it is to me) to ensure that your intent is understood. Just wanted to thank you for that.

2. Perhaps you are unfamiliar with the "preview post" feature. I use it to check a post before actually submitting it..... to make sure a post matches my intent, and to edit, clarify, correct, whatever is needed. If you ARE familiar with "Preview Post," just skip the rest of this post and please accept my apology for misinterpreting your sentence quoted above.

----After the last post in a thread, there are two "buttons" below the text entry window: one says "Post Quick Reply" and the other says "Go Advanced."

----Click on the "Go Advanced" button to reveal additional features AND to change the two buttons below the text entry window to "Submit Reply" and "Preview Post."

----After constructing your post in the text entry window, click the "Preview Post" button, and a new section will appear ABOVE the text entry window, showing how your post will look on the board.

----You can make changes by dropping back down to the text entry window and editing your post however you like.

----Then click the "Preview Post" button again..... and your changes will appear in the preview section above the text entry window.

----When you're satisfied with your post, click the "Submit Reply" button, and your new post will appear on the board.

 

[Etrius24]

I like that way of looking at it. Hopefully, it'll wind up as Bedard and Burnett for Maholm and Correia (even better, especially if NH can get something of value for Correia). Then again, maybe Correia will surpise, and pitch as he did early in 2011.



I think you're on target about the salaries, if you're comparing against Maholm's declined option, and that seems appropriate.

I agree on your "trade bait" notion, too, with a couple of qualifications:

1. It assumes that Burnett performs as we all hope (which I don't see as a sure thing).

2. The Pirates' $8 mill portion of Burnett's 2013 salary MAY deter some teams (perhaps that's why you used the phrase "fat contender").

Mags,

I am going to throw you an olive branch here...

You mentioned Burnett at 8 million for 2013... and the pirates being on the hook for this amount... I want you to consider Burnett being traded to a contender maybe at the deadline this year.

This is an assumption mind you.... But let's just say he is pitching well... His strikeout totals remain excellent like they were last year... The hits per inning are as good and because he is in the NL pitching half his games in Pittsburgh we see a reduction in homeruns and era as well. ( something myself and other posters here feel is reasonable )

Okay, so the guy is pitching decently... Maybe even pitching like a legit #3 for a contending team.. As has been posted in this thread the Pirates might expect to get something back in the way of prospects when they trade Burnett.

My question for you is this: You said you were concerned that the 8 million MAY deter some teams from trading for Burnett... I would argue that if Burnett is pitching decently and it looks like the AL and or Being on the Yankees was a large part of the problem... And he is pitching noticably better as a Buc... All of a sudden 8 million is something of a bargain.

And before we get into an argument... let's consider some things that remain constant when you look at Burnetts stat line for the last few years... He is a workhorse...Lots of innings, very durable! He generates a lot of strikeouts... and has maintained a strong K:BB ratio and a decent H:IP ratio.

So a team that is considering trading for Burnett would be adding a guy that is a workhorse.. a Guy that they would only be responsible for for one more season. and they would be paying this workhorse 8 million dollars.

Now if you think about it in terms of free agents... How many starters will be on the market that will get close to 200 innings and 175+ strikeouts? and how many of them could you get for 8 million or less? How many could you sign that would not want a long term commitment?

So any contending team that would be trading for Burnett would not be over paying him in terms of salary..( the degree of this is still open to some debate) They would not be committing themselves to a player for a long period of time ( in case he does not play very well )...And they would be getting a workhorse that strikes out a lot of batters... I would argue this all makes him more appealing as other teams would have starting pitchers to trade that make more money and or are inked to deals that would leave their new team on the hook for several more years instead of just 1.

And I want to suggest something else that has nothing to do with mags exactly.... What if the Pirates sweetened the deal and ate a little more of the salary that is owed Burnett? For example the Bucs are on the hook right now for 13 million for the next 2 years... well say the Bucs ship Burnett out half way through the season...They are on the hook for roughly 10 million still on his contract... So they eat a couple million of that and the team that gets him is on the hook for 2013 at 6 million... And because that is a good deal no matter what for a lot of teams just because he can pitch close to 200 innings and be a workhorse....That would give him even more value in terms of what the Bucs might get back in return for Burnett.

 

[thecrow124]

Burnett has pitched to about a 1.5 WAR the last couple years. If he continues at that rate he is worth about $2 million in trade at any point this year, if he pitches better he may be worth a little more, but you have to convince the team taking him that his value will remain at where he is pitching at the time. Given his track record over the last 2 years that may be hard to do.

Basically to get any value in return in a trade, Burnett needs to be pitching to about a 3.5 WAR and the team taking him has to believe he will continue that. Still that only gets you $20 million in trade value, which is not a great deal in value. When you figure that he is optimistically only going to pitch to about a 2-2.5 WAR he doesn't really carry a good trade value, even if we eat salary.