AJ Burnett - I'm intrigued by this.

[Darkstone42]

Pirates Prospects A.J. Burnett Rumors: Friday

According to this, Jones isn't being offered, but the Pirates have a good chance at landing Burnette anyway. The two sides are negotiating how much of Burnette's contract that Pirates will have to take on.

I say take on more money, give up less in terms of assets.

 

[Darkstone42]

Also, Burnette will waive his no trade clause to come to Pittsburgh. That seems strange, but apparently he would like playing in Pittsburgh since it's close to home and his wife is afraid of flying.


Thank God for phobias...

 

[thecrow124]

Oddly, Pirates aren't even on his list of no trade teams. IMO it makes sense to not put the Pirates on that list, who in their right mind would think Pittsburgh would even consider adding a big contract?

On a side note, I think it is stupid to pick up Burnett, he is on the wrong side of his career to expect a rebound season. He is currently no better than Kevin Correia and bot are inferior to Brad Lincoln who is substantially cheaper than both. Again, just my opinion. However, it is just a matter of time, no way this deal doesn't get done, way to deep into it for either team to back out.

 

[Darkstone42]

Oddly, Pirates aren't even on his list of no trade teams. IMO it makes sense to not put the Pirates on that list, who in their right mind would think Pittsburgh would even consider adding a big contract?

On a side note, I think it is stupid to pick up Burnett, he is on the wrong side of his career to expect a rebound season. He is currently no better than Kevin Correia and bot are inferior to Brad Lincoln who is substantially cheaper than both. Again, just my opinion. However, it is just a matter of time, no way this deal doesn't get done, way to deep into it for either team to back out.

I explained in my above post why the Pirates aren't on his no-trade list. :p

The Pirates have also expressed interest in Blanton, but only mild interest, and there's nothing substantial yet, according to Jayson Stark.

 

[Illinest]

Oddly, Pirates aren't even on his list of no trade teams. IMO it makes sense to not put the Pirates on that list, who in their right mind would think Pittsburgh would even consider adding a big contract?

On a side note, I think it is stupid to pick up Burnett, he is on the wrong side of his career to expect a rebound season. He is currently no better than Kevin Correia and bot are inferior to Brad Lincoln who is substantially cheaper than both. Again, just my opinion. However, it is just a matter of time, no way this deal doesn't get done, way to deep into it for either team to back out.

I don't see any reason to rely on Lincoln. He and Locke should be considered sixth starters - to get an opportunity only once a starter gets injured.

The list of starters should be at least seven or eight players deep.

1. Bedard (injury risk anyways)
2. Morton (injured)
3. Karstens
4. McDonald
5. Lincoln (untested)
6. Locke (untested)
7. Correia (terrible)

Slotting Burnett in at 5 would extend the rotation. It won't make a bad rotation good but it'll prevent injuries from making a bad rotation into a terrible one.

 

[thedddd]

I don't see any reason to rely on Lincoln. He and Locke should be considered sixth starters - to get an opportunity only once a starter gets injured.

The list of starters should be at least seven or eight players deep.

1. Bedard (injury risk anyways)
2. Morton (injured)
3. Karstens
4. McDonald
5. Lincoln (untested)
6. Locke (untested)
7. Correia (terrible)

Slotting Burnett in at 5 would extend the rotation. It won't make a bad rotation good but it'll prevent injuries from making a bad rotation into a terrible one.

100% true. To be honest they are doing the same thing with 1B with Jones, McGehee, Evans, Fox, Hague, Clement and looking at Young. But if I had to choose on which one more major league depth is needed it would be Pitcher.

With Burnett last year, if you take away August he had a pretty good year in terms of Pitchers for the Pirates.

 

[magnumo]

This discussion has almost convinced me that it would be OK for the Pirates to acquire Burnett..... but two qualifications remain (already mentioned by others):

1. Depends on what the Pirates must give up. I didn't like the Jones for Burnett idea. Jones isn't great, but he should be OK as the lefty-hitting side of a 1B platoon. Jones-McGehee, or Jones-Evans, or even Jones-Hague would be OK. But taking Jones out of the equation (without a viable lefty substitute) seems like a disaster waiting to happen. Now that Jones is apparently off the table, I'll wait and see who else the Pirates might offer.

2. Depends on how much of Burnett's salary the Pirates would have to pay. Given my perception of Burnett's remaining skills, he MIGHT be worth $5 mill per year..... but no more.

I'm still wondering about Chris Young. If his health is a reasonable risk, I think he'd be a better bet than Burnett, and it seems that he probably would be available on a one-year-deal at significantly less than $5 mill. That might give the Bucs enough "financial flexibility" to pursue another bat.

 

[thecrow124]

I explained in my above post why the Pirates aren't on his no-trade list. :pThe Pirates have also expressed interest in Blanton, but only mild interest, and there's nothing substantial yet, according to Jayson Stark.

Actually in your earlier post you stated he would be willing to WAIVE his no trade clause. I simply stated that he would not HAVE to waive it since the Pirates are not on his list of no trade teams. Six of one half dozen of the other I guess.

 

[element1286]

I'm still wondering about Chris Young. If his health is a reasonable risk, I think he'd be a better bet than Burnett, and it seems that he probably would be available on a one-year-deal at significantly less than $5 mill. That might give the Bucs enough "financial flexibility" to pursue another bat.

Chris Young has pitched 200 innings in the past 4 years, 50 in the past two, his average fastball in the past two years 84.6mph, and his numbers are terrible.

 

[element1286]

Dejan seems to think the Pirates will not have to give up anyone of consequence (low level prospect), and will end up paying Burnett 7-8 million per year.

Sign me up!

 

[Illinest]

Dejan seems to think the Pirates will not have to give up anyone of consequence (low level prospect), and will end up paying Burnett 7-8 million per year.

Sign me up!

That would be best. Just dont give up a prospect for gods sake. Not even a rajai davis. Give them dinesh. Re-sign dinesh and ship him to ny.

 

[magnumo]

Chris Young has pitched 200 innings in the past 4 years, 50 in the past two, his average fastball in the past two years 84.6mph, and his numbers are terrible.

Hey, element..... I already said that my interest would depend on his health.

It's true that he's made only 8 starts total over the past two years, but his numbers over those 2 years look pretty good to me.

Chris Young Stats - New York Mets - ESPN

 

[element1286]

Hey, element..... I already said that my interest would depend on his health.

It's true that he's made only 8 starts total over the past two years, but his numbers over those 2 years look pretty good to me.

Chris Young Stats - New York Mets - ESPN

Small sample size; he stranded 96+ percent of the runners who got on base the past two years, batters had a babip of about .160, not sustainable numbers, both completely unsustainable numbers. On top he had a well below average HR/FB rate, and considering he gets 50+ percent of his outs from flyballs, one of the highest totals in baseball, he didn't get burned. I know this term gets thrown around a ton, but the last two years he was "lucky".

No offense Mags, but he's a minor league deal to me, and I don't put him much higher than Daniel Cabrera on any depth chart.

Chris Young Statistics Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball

 

[Darkstone42]

More on dealing for pitchers.

Pirates Prospects The Pirates Have Options To Choose From

A summary of the major points of the article:

The Pirates allegedly have agreed to take on $10 million of the salary, but the Yankees want them to take even more. Fortunately, the Pirates have the leverage of two other pitchers of comparable quality to Burnett, but with lower salaries, being made available for trade, the Pirates can simply tell the Yankees that they'll go after one of those guys instead. (Those two guys are Lannan and Blanton, by the way.)

It also says that of the three, Burnett's the best option, and I tend to agree, because he's got the best peripherals. Last year, Burnett's xFIP was 3.86. His ERA was 5.15. Some of his troubles were luck related. Obviously, there were other troubles related to pitching in the AL East, as well.

If the Pirates land Burnett, I think we can expect at least a reasonable performance from him. He won't be dominant, but I don't think it's unreasonable that he could give us a sub-4 ERA. Given the alternative, even a mid-4s ERA would be an upgrade.

 

[magnumo]

Small sample size; he stranded 96+ percent of the runners who got on base the past two years, batters had a babip of about .160, not sustainable numbers, both completely unsustainable numbers. On top he had a well below average HR/FB rate, and considering he gets 50+ percent of his outs from flyballs, one of the highest totals in baseball, he didn't get burned. I know this term gets thrown around a ton, but the last two years he was "lucky".

No offense Mags, but he's a minor league deal to me, and I don't put him much higher than Daniel Cabrera on any depth chart.

Chris Young Statistics Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball

None taken, element.

I understand your reluctance about Young. I agree completely that a minor league deal is appropriate for Young (but only if he's healthy). Burnett clearly has been more durable over the past few seasons, and there are factors which suggest that Burnett could pitch better in the NL than he has for the past couple years in the AL.

On the other hand, when Young was healthy, he ALWAYS seemed to give up far fewer hits per inning AND miss more bats than his stuff would suggest as likely. I guess nostalgia is influencing me some, as well. At the time, I thought the Young deal was one of Littlefield's worst (and that's saying something). Subsequently, I followed Young's career and was amazed by the number of low-hit games he threw.

Bottom line? Young's health is the key for me. Yeah, Burnett still throws harder, and either Burnett's or a healthy Cabrera's stuff is better..... but a healthy Cabrera never performed as well as a healthy Young..... and Young is a couple years younger than Burnett, and obviously will be much cheaper. Heck..... maybe NH should go after both Burnett AND Young (if Young is healthy)!

I remain worried about the Bucs' starting rotation. I just hope whoever winds up there pitches well.

 

[element1286]

Mags, I think the question with Young is that he is either still not healthy, thus he could regain it his stuff. Or he is healthy, or as healthy as he is going to get, and will never be the same pitcher as he was before.

 

[thedddd]

Harden just got the same surgery as Young did. Another shame of a good talent that probably is done.

Honestly I would love the Pirates to sign Young to a minor league deal but nothing more. The problem is they don't have 5 starters for the beginning of the season. And if Reyes, Cabrera, Locke or Lincoln is there with Correia it won't be fun to watch.

It looks like Jones is out the picture for Burnett but they want the Pirates to take 15 million instead of 10. If he is a 7.5 per year for the next two years I am fine with that if they don't have to give anything else for him.

 

[thecrow124]

I am beginning to have a sinking feeling that NH is going to botch this up. For two days all we have heard is how the Yankees and Pirates are working on a trade for Burnett. This morning I wake up and see that there are three other teams in the mix as well. Seems like the makings of another NH negotiation blunder.

Regardless, I could care less if Burnett is on our roster or not, I am already on record as saying I would prefer to see Lincoln in the rotation. I know my opinion is not shared by many if any of you, but I will stand by it.

I now am wondering who else is in on him. Lastly, there is no way I am good with paying $15 million to Burnett over two seasons, even if we don't give up any prospects.

 

[magnumo]

Harden just got the same surgery as Young did. Another shame of a good talent that probably is done.

I read somewhere that it's also the same surgery that Johann Santana, Mark Prior, and Chien Ming Wang had. Doesn't sound good.

Perhaps they should pursue Brandon Webb instead. At least he had a different kind of shoulder surgery.

 

[Darkstone42]

Harden just got the same surgery as Young did. Another shame of a good talent that probably is done.

Honestly I would love the Pirates to sign Young to a minor league deal but nothing more. The problem is they don't have 5 starters for the beginning of the season. And if Reyes, Cabrera, Locke or Lincoln is there with Correia it won't be fun to watch.

It looks like Jones is out the picture for Burnett but they want the Pirates to take 15 million instead of 10. If he is a 7.5 per year for the next two years I am fine with that if they don't have to give anything else for him.

I'd rather take on the money than give up a prospect. But $15 million might be a a hair steep.

Compromise at $12 million and call it a deal.