AFC Wild Card Games

[WalkerBoh]

If you are going to claim that Iknowftbll's view was simplistic then shouldn't you look at your own as well? The first being that because Peyton was a dome quarterback that means he was on the road for the first major part of his career if he was playing in elements. Quarterbacks (all quarterbacks) don't usually play better on the road compared to at home whether there is weather involved or not so that accounts for some of Peyton's drop off in stats on the road whether it is in the elements or not. For example no matter the weather this year Drew Brees has a drop off of 40 points in quarterback rating on the road compared to at home. That doesn't factor in any kind of weather conditions just home-away.

The second part that I think your statement doesn't take into consideration as much as it should because he was even doing this when he was with the Colts is he got better in his career in cold weather games. Such as since 2006 Peyton has had a quarterback rating of 93 or higher in 7 of his 11 games in bad weather. I think for me I would take what Peyton has done over the last 8 years of his career a little more seriously compared to the first part of his career where he only had a quarterback rating that high once out of 12 games. So his stats are hurt big time that for the first 8 years of his career he stunk it up in cold weather.

Again this whole Peyton playing in cold weather thing isn't so black and white as some want to try and make it.

You should try re-reading my post then. I accounted for the fact Manning's cold games being also away games (for the most part) and that he's showing improvement in handling such conditions.

As for your other point, Brees is an outlier. Just because his numbers are lower in all his away games doesn't make it true for ALL dome teams. The documented fact still stands that dome teams historically have performed significantly worse in poor weather conditions than in good conditions, even when those games are away.

 

[cdumler7]

You should try re-reading my post then. I accounted for the fact Manning's cold games being also away games (for the most part) and that he's showing improvement in handling such conditions.

As for your other point, Brees is an outlier. Just because his numbers are lower in all his away games doesn't make it true for ALL dome teams. The documented fact still stands that dome teams historically have performed significantly worse in poor weather conditions than in good conditions, even when those games are away.

I know you pointed towards them being away games in the cold weather I just thought you should also show that quarterbacks historically struggle on the road whether the weather is good or not. This is why home field advantage is such a big stat in the NFL and why teams like the Bengals can go 8-0 at home then 3-5 on the road with a point differential around 15. That didn't depend on the weather for that stat just that they were away. So that should factor into Peyton's lower quarterback rating on the road in bad weather in that whether the weather was good or not most likely it was going to be lower anyway in those games compared to what he could do at home.

Now as for my other thought you are right it is not true of all of them. Matthew Stafford actually had a higher quarterback rating on the road than he did at home. The other dome quarterback though it did drop. Not as significant as it was for Brees but it did drop on the road. Most quarterbacks whether dome or not do have at least a slight drop on the road. Peyton actually is one of the few that did better on the road than at home this year but only by 1 point in the QBR ranking. Now Tom Brady who is the quarterback the Broncos could be playing in that AFC Championship game drops 10 points in the home/away differential this year. On the other side of the coin the other 3 teams we could be playing in the Divisional round Luck has a drop off while Smith and Rivers have a slight increase on the road. The other AFC team with Dalton has an 18 point drop off on the road.

So again most quarterbacks in the NFL have at least a slight drop off on the road. Some can actually do a bit better but it is never by a significant amount. Those are the guys I would say are consistent throughout the season. Peyton for example was almost identical on the road compared to at home throwing for 27 touchdowns to 5 interceptions at home and 28 touchdowns to 5 interceptions on the road. Should show no matter what conditions, fields, or whatever he plays in he will do just fine.

 

[iknowftbll]

Having said all that, all this talk about the Broncos and Pats is a bit premature. This thread is about the Wild Card Games, after all. And for the time being, the greatest item of interest to most Pats and Broncos fans alike is probably who the next opponents will be.

The Broncos will get one of the Chiefs, Chargers, or Colts while the Patriots will get one of the Bengals, Chiefs, or Colts. And as I've said a few times, no team winning or losing any game in any round of the playoffs will come as a shock to me. It's all about execution at this point and every team still standing has the ability to go the distance while at the same time all are flawed enough that any can beat.

I'm usually pretty bad at picking playoff games, but I'll take a stab at it.

Colts 30, Chiefs 23.

Bengals 28, Chargers 27.

 

[HOF-ELWAY-7]

I will try to make this easy. Manning has played better than the national perception in the cold if you look at his numbers. But the truth is it makes ZERO difference. His legacy will be greatly judged by his play THIS postseason. He'll probably have at least one cold weather game (if not two) if the Broncos make it to the SB. He wins the SB under those conditions it won't even be a topic anymore. Lose in a cold weather game every Bronco fan and Manning himself will hear it for a very long time.

 

[WalkerBoh]

Having said all that, all this talk about the Broncos and Pats is a bit premature.

For me it's moot, since I think it'll be Cincy at Denver

 

[iknowftbll]

For me it's moot, since I think it'll be Cincy at Denver

Possibly. I am really scratching my head guessing at the results of this weekend's games. Usually there is at least one playoff team in each conference that people can easily write off (and sometimes that team even surprises some people, like the 2011 Broncos). This year I think every team in the AFC genuinely has a shot. It is hard to rule out any of them. And if the Broncos do their part, it will make their trip to the Super Bowl that much more rewarding.

 

[cdumler7]

I honestly am more worried about San Diego than I am New England at this point. I think they seem to be the one team this year that has given our offense some trouble and have the ability on offense to at least move the ball consistently and keep Peyton off the field. To me I think this shows how wide open the AFC really is this year where there isn't one team that has separated themselves from the pack.

 

[randymon]

Having said all that, all this talk about the Broncos and Pats is a bit premature. This thread is about the Wild Card Games, after all. And for the time being, the greatest item of interest to most Pats and Broncos fans alike is probably who the next opponents will be.

The Broncos will get one of the Chiefs, Chargers, or Colts while the Patriots will get one of the Bengals, Chiefs, or Colts. And as I've said a few times, no team winning or losing any game in any round of the playoffs will come as a shock to me. It's all about execution at this point and every team still standing has the ability to go the distance while at the same time all are flawed enough that any can beat.

I'm usually pretty bad at picking playoff games, but I'll take a stab at it.

Colts 30, Chiefs 23.

Bengals 28, Chargers 27.

Not bad but I think the Bolts will struggle big time in Cincy and freezing temps. Cincy 44- 17. Also, you forgot the Nfc gms. I like Packers in upset and Eagles at home. Both close gms.

 

[iknowftbll]

Not bad but I think the Bolts will struggle big time in Cincy and freezing temps. Cincy 44- 17. Also, you forgot the Nfc gms. I like Packers in upset and Eagles at home. Both close gms.

On another sports forum I frequent, I went with Packers 31, 49ers 28 and Saints 34, Eagles 31. I didn't mention it here because it's an "AFC Wild Card" thread.