AFC West Stock Watch:

[iknowftbll]

This thread was certainly more fun to update a couple weeks ago. Still, we're better fans than most here, so let's not avoid the hard discussion.

The AFC West standings:

Broncos: 7-2

Chiefs: 4-5

Raiders: 4-5

Chargers: 2-7

The Broncos may be at a transition point as a franchise. Has the Manning era ended and the Oz era started? Or is this the start of another QB search? Meanwhile a tough game on the road against a surging Bears team (albeit one the Broncos match up with nicely) and neither 8-2 nor 7-3 should come as a surprise to anyone.

The Chiefs have new life in their season and what appears a soft slate ahead. Their defense has been playing really well during a 3-2 stretch, including 3 straight wins. On my favorite Chiefs sites the fans are already talking playoffs, despite a lot of traffic between them and the #6 seed.

The Raiders are trending downward again and it's largely due to defense. That offense is awesome, but their defense has failed them a few times now. It's hard to say they're trending up against the league this year, but they are definitely better than the Raiders of previous years.

The Chargers are just lacking all around this year. But lost in the poor record is Rivers having a great season. And coming off a bye and against a division rival in the Chiefs this week it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them win one this week.

Simple assessment for now. We've discussed Oz at length elsewhere here, so I'll leave it at that. This is still the Broncos division, despite them looking like one of the worst teams in the game 2 weeks in a row.

 

[Mingo]

This thread was certainly more fun to update a couple weeks ago. Still, we're better fans than most here, so let's not avoid the hard discussion.

The AFC West standings:

Broncos: 7-2

Chiefs: 4-5

Raiders: 4-5

Chargers: 2-7

The Broncos may be at a transition point as a franchise. Has the Manning era ended and the Oz era started? Or is this the start of another QB search? Meanwhile a tough game on the road against a surging Bears team (albeit one the Broncos match up with nicely) and neither 8-2 nor 7-3 should come as a surprise to anyone.

The Chiefs have new life in their season and what appears a soft slate ahead. Their defense has been playing really well during a 3-2 stretch, including 3 straight wins. On my favorite Chiefs sites the fans are already talking playoffs, despite a lot of traffic between them and the #6 seed.

The Raiders are trending downward again and it's largely due to defense. That offense is awesome, but their defense has failed them a few times now. It's hard to say they're trending up against the league this year, but they are definitely better than the Raiders of previous years.

The Chargers are just lacking all around this year. But lost in the poor record is Rivers having a great season. And coming off a bye and against a division rival in the Chiefs this week it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them win one this week.

Simple assessment for now. We've discussed Oz at length elsewhere here, so I'll leave it at that. This is still the Broncos division, despite them looking like one of the worst teams in the game 2 weeks in a row.

That's a really useful rundown - by Mr. NoFbl

 

[iknowftbll]

The NFL Playoff Machine is out on ESPN and you can tinker around with it to see all the possible playoff combinations. The key things I've learned is if the Broncos go 3-3 down the stretch, but their three wins are against their remaining AFC West rivals they win the division at 11-5 even if the Chiefs run the table and pull even at 11-5 themselves.

Also, tie breakers seem to really be favoring the Chiefs in the event a mob of teams all finish 9-7. Of course it depends on the combinations of wins and losses but I ran a few different scenarios and in all of them when the Jets, Bills, Steelers, Texans and Chiefs all finish 9-7 the tie breakers really favor the Chiefs. There are also scenarios that put the Raiders in at 9-7 as well, but in the one I came up with the Chiefs are also in. The only way the Chiefs don't reach the playoffs if they get to 9-7 is if there are just two 10-6 or better teams. Possible, but not necessarily probable.

 

[cdumler7]

The NFL Playoff Machine is out on ESPN and you can tinker around with it to see all the possible playoff combinations. The key things I've learned is if the Broncos go 3-3 down the stretch, but their three wins are against their remaining AFC West rivals they win the division at 11-5 even if the Chiefs run the table and pull even at 11-5 themselves.

Also, tie breakers seem to really be favoring the Chiefs in the event a mob of teams all finish 9-7. Of course it depends on the combinations of wins and losses but I ran a few different scenarios and in all of them when the Jets, Bills, Steelers, Texans and Chiefs all finish 9-7 the tie breakers really favor the Chiefs. There are also scenarios that put the Raiders in at 9-7 as well, but in the one I came up with the Chiefs are also in. The only way the Chiefs don't reach the playoffs if they get to 9-7 is if there are just two 10-6 or better teams. Possible, but not necessarily probable.

I think the Chiefs have definitely worked themselves back into the playoffs. The closing schedule is ridiculously easy with 4 of the 6 games being at home and the combined record of those teams being 20-40 or something like that. I think if the Broncos win this Sunday they all but have wrapped up the division. They lose this week though and I could see the Chiefs really putting some pressure on us. Need the Bills to maybe make things a little easier. Our closing schedule I honestly would probably take 3-3 right now. I'm honestly to the point that it is just a matter of get to the playoffs. I'm not even worried whether we get the Bye week or not. We have seen what having the #1 or #2 seed has done for us in the past. We haven't been all that successful with it so either way it is a tough road to the Super Bowl. Get in and anything can happen from any position in the playoffs.

 

[iknowftbll]

^ I agree about the playoff bye. I am not going to be disappointed with the #3 seed. The only reason I'd welcome a higher seed is it would mean the Broncos would have beaten some of the tougher opponents remaining on their schedule. I think the Pats are beatable, for example and will be disappointed if the Broncos lose. But at the end of the day win the divisions and get into the playoffs and see what happens once you're there.

Going back to the Chiefs, I think the Raiders will at least split with them and the Bills will give them a run for the money, if not beat them outright.

 

[cdumler7]

^ I agree about the playoff bye. I am not going to be disappointed with the #3 seed. The only reason I'd welcome a higher seed is it would mean the Broncos would have beaten some of the tougher opponents remaining on their schedule. I think the Pats are beatable, for example and will be disappointed if the Broncos lose. But at the end of the day win the divisions and get into the playoffs and see what happens once you're there.

Going back to the Chiefs, I think the Raiders will at least split with them and the Bills will give them a run for the money, if not beat them outright.

To me I see the Chiefs maybe losing one more game and probably to Oakland as you said. I think Buffalo can definitely give them a run for their money but I think Rex and the team banked so much on beating the Patriots this past Monday. I mean you could tell that game meant a lot to him and the team. I just think they will be mentally not quite all there and with it being in Arrowhead I see the Chiefs taking care of business. So with them going say 5-1 to finish the season that means we have to go 3-3 to outright win the division (obviously who we lose to makes a difference). Thankfully I see 2 games against the Chargers with how beat up they are and I do think that team has quit on McCoy other than Rivers being two of our wins. So that means a win against Oakland, Pitt, NE, or Cincy gets it done for us in my opinion. I would love to see us though go at least 2-2 in those games considering 3 of the 4 are at home. Have to take care of home field. I am one that I do believe in Brock. He showed some huge leadership skills to rise up in that Bears game with so much going against him. He has handled the media very well and I think the team is really responding to him. Players talked this past week that he gave a ridiculous speech on Saturday night that had the team all excited for the game. So I see us going 4-2 to close out the year. Not perfect but enough to give this team some confidence heading into the playoffs that we can actually go out and win this thing.

 

[randymon]

Yeah I've liked how Oz has handled himself and the media. He seems to be his own person even though he's had Manning as a tutor. Very genuine and I think teammates see that and respect that he is being himself and not a Manning clone. I like his chances as a leader and a solid Qb for this team and maybe even more regardless how things work out Sun. Lot of pressure in his 2nd start vs defending champs so I will be cutting him some slack in this one. The running game, D and ST's have to help this guy out for Denver to come out with a W. Hopefully were all proud of the effort regardless of result of our team when it's all said and done Gents and Lady ( I'm assuming we only have one in Furby. She knows her football too ).

 

[iknowftbll]

I think you have a very realistic outlook, CD. For both the Broncos and the Chiefs. Now how about this for good theater: Let's say the Broncos lock in the #3 seed and finish 12-4 or so. The Chiefs finish 10-6 and lock in the #6 seed. How awesome would it be to see them return to Denver for a second game this season. I think such a game would not end well for them.

 

[cdumler7]

I think you have a very realistic outlook, CD. For both the Broncos and the Chiefs. Now how about this for good theater: Let's say the Broncos lock in the #3 seed and finish 12-4 or so. The Chiefs finish 10-6 and lock in the #6 seed. How awesome would it be to see them return to Denver for a second game this season. I think such a game would not end well for them.

I would love to have that 3rd match up. That last game reminded me a lot of that Raiders game where they crushed us a few years back where everything that could go wrong at the start of the game did. Hard to fight back when you start out so terrible. The whole game plan goes straight out the window at that point. Honestly the biggest difference between this game and that one against the Raiders is thankfully we have a great defense that kept the game from becoming one of the most embarrassing losses in a long time. The defense really hung in there for how bad the offense was doing. While I do think the Chiefs are playing some of the best football in the NFL right now I do think if Osweiler can keep playing like he did last week I like our chances against anybody. Yes he didn't go out and light the league on fire but he played a very efficient game. Just a couple of plays not going so crazy like a trip at the goal line and his first game turns into our 2nd best performance of the season only 2nd to that of the Packers game.

A lot of football left to play. Even though this is Oz's 2nd start I honestly like our chances in most of the final games. Going to be a tough road ahead but we have a team that is sticking together even with all the question marks with Manning.

 

[CEH]

I think Kansas City is the better team right now than Denver. They has beaten their last 4 opponents by a average of 22 points which is unheard of in the NFL. Anything over a 10 point win is a blowout. Kansas City and Pittsburgh will be tough outs if any come to Denver. Kansas City had the lead in KC with 2 minutes to go with 5 turnovers. Flip the script in Denver and they win in a route. Be a close game but no gimme for Denver.

 

[cdumler7]

I think Kansas City is the better team right now than Denver. They has beaten their last 4 opponents by a average of 22 points which is unheard of in the NFL. Anything over a 10 point win is a blowout. Kansas City and Pittsburgh will be tough outs if any come to Denver. Kansas City had the lead in KC with 2 minutes to go with 5 turnovers. Flip the script in Denver and they win in a route. Be a close game but no gimme for Denver.

We also had Manning playing in both of those games though. Throw in that first meeting Manning threw a pick-6 and our run game had one of its worst games of the year with only 61 yards on 22 carries. While I don't think it would be an easy match up by any means I feel better about the Broncos today and their chances than I did the few days leading up to the Chiefs game the 2nd time around. I think it is a game that definitely could go either way but lets see how Osweiler develops over these next few weeks. If he shows himself to even be an average QB that would be a huge boost to this team.

 

[Mingo]

Yeah I've liked how Oz has handled himself and the media. He seems to be his own person even though he's had Manning as a tutor. Very genuine and I think teammates see that and respect that he is being himself and not a Manning clone. I like his chances as a leader and a solid Qb for this team and maybe even more regardless how things work out Sun. Lot of pressure in his 2nd start vs defending champs so I will be cutting him some slack in this one. The running game, D and ST's have to help this guy out for Denver to come out with a W. Hopefully were all proud of the effort regardless of result of our team when it's all said and done Gents and Lady ( I'm assuming we only have one in Furby. She knows her football too ).

You are a man of true insight and occasional brilliance.

 

[SpringStein]

I think Kansas City is the better team right now than Denver. They has beaten their last 4 opponents by a average of 22 points which is unheard of in the NFL. Anything over a 10 point win is a blowout. Kansas City and Pittsburgh will be tough outs if any come to Denver. Kansas City had the lead in KC with 2 minutes to go with 5 turnovers. Flip the script in Denver and they win in a route. Be a close game but no gimme for Denver.

I agree with Chris - KC right now is playing better than us. The Houston injury today could hurt them though.