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Battlelyon

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His career started way too late which will obviously hurt him big time...didn't have his first MLB win until age 26, and he's entering next season (where he'll be 31) with under 60 wins, 1000 innings and 1000 strikeouts.

Good point
 

navamind

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Yeah. I'm a huge Kluber fan, but he's going to have to dominate for the next 5-6 years (say 6 seasons of 5+ WAR) to even put together a decent case.
 

navamind

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I don't think Lester's career stats are close to HOF caliber. That being said, he does have some very impressive postseason stats:

2.57 ERA, 112 IP, 18 games (16 starts), 95/26 K/BB, 1.03 WHIP

He's played a pivotal role in two WS runs (2007 and especially 2013) and he's pitched very well so far this postseason.
 

StanMarsh51

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Carlos Beltran, to me a no-brainer but there seems to be doubt for whatever reason. I think he's one of the best switch hitters ever.


What hurts his appeal is that he was good at everything but not dominant in one particular aspect (jack of all trades, master of none type player). If he dominated in a single thing (ie - batting average) but wasn't as good as he currently is in everything else, he'd probably be looked at more favorably even though he might not be as good a player.
 

WindyCityCoug

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Besides Ichiro, Pujols, and Miggy

Other LOCKS

Thome - 600 HR
Beltre - assuming he gets to 3,000 Hits next spring,

Young SP on pace, , but ways to go -

MadBum
Kershaw
Felix, still young, barely age 30
 

navamind

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I think Bumgarner has a ways to go (under 30 WAR), though he's put together a pretty impressive career up to this point. Kershaw's pretty much a "lock" unless he gets hit by a truck (kinda like where Johan Santana was at like 7 years ago, go figure).
 

calsnowskier

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Besides Ichiro, Pujols, and Miggy

Other LOCKS

Thome - 600 HR
Beltre - assuming he gets to 3,000 Hits next spring,

Young SP on pace, , but ways to go -

MadBum
Kershaw
Felix, still young, barely age 30
I can't believe Thome is still active. Dude just never quits. At this rate he will never make it to the Hall because he will still be playing post apocalypse.
 

navamind

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I can't believe Thome is still active. Dude just never quits. At this rate he will never make it to the Hall because he will still be playing post apocalypse.

Julio Franco has to be playing baseball somewhere.
 

navamind

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Just looked at Pedroia and Kinslers career stats.

I'm not of the mind that either are HOFers, but what kind of shot does Kinsler have compared to DPs? Traditional counting marks wise IKs has significantly more in a number of areas. Homers and SBs, runs too. They're both due to start cooling off in their careers, but Kinsler could hit quite a few milestones with just two or so good seasons and a couple partial twighlight years. Rate wise Id guess he takes a decent hit, and prolly only more so in the next couple seasons, just wondering.

This is a very strong group of 30 something active 2nd basemen.

Second Base JAWS Leaders | Baseball-Reference.com

It'll be very interesting to see how they age. They're both coming off very strong seasons. OPS+ wise, Kinsler's 2016 was his 2nd best offensive season.

Though this doesn't really have anything to do with Kinsler's HOF case, I find it a bit interesting how much his walk rate's fluctuated. In 2011, Kinsler walked in 12.3% of his plate appearances. Three years later, he walked in just 4% of his plate appearances (Francoeur-esque).

Ian Kinsler » Graphs » WAR » Batting | FanGraphs Baseball
 

broncosmitty

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Second Base JAWS Leaders | Baseball-Reference.com

It'll be very interesting to see how they age. They're both coming off very strong seasons. OPS+ wise, Kinsler's 2016 was his 2nd best offensive season.

Though this doesn't really have anything to do with Kinsler's HOF case, I find it a bit interesting how much his walk rate's fluctuated. In 2011, Kinsler walked in 12.3% of his plate appearances. Three years later, he walked in just 4% of his plate appearances (Francoeur-esque).

Ian Kinsler » Graphs » WAR » Batting | FanGraphs Baseball
His first year in Detroit it was as if Torii Hunter and Pudge rubbed off on him. Free swinging like crazy, but real solid contact.

Now that he's been at the leadoff spot he takes a lot pitches, but his K's have jumped. Gets on base more, but I'm not big on 100+ Ks when a guy can't manage 50 free passes.
 

navamind

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His first year in Detroit it was as if Torii Hunter and Pudge rubbed off on him. Free swinging like crazy, but real solid contact.

Now that he's been at the leadoff spot he takes a lot pitches, but his K's have jumped. Gets on base more, but I'm not big on 100+ Ks when a guy can't manage 50 free passes.

He did strikeout a lot more often than he has throughout his career, but even then he only K'd in 16.9% of his plate appearances. The league K% was 21.1%. Something to keep an eye on though.
 

broncosmitty

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He did strikeout a lot more often than he has throughout his career, but even then he only K'd in 16.9% of his plate appearances. The league K% was 21.1%. Something to keep an eye on though.
Strikeout rates are crazy these days.

(Shakes stick in anger.)
 

Omar 382

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I can't believe Thome is still active. Dude just never quits. At this rate he will never make it to the Hall because he will still be playing post apocalypse.
He's retired
 

Omar 382

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Ohhhhhhhhhhhh
 

WindyCityCoug

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I can't believe Thome is still active. Dude just never quits. At this rate he will never make it to the Hall because he will still be playing post apocalypse.


Nah, Thome is Retired,..... just waiting for the 5 yrs, eligible in 2 is it?

When said Active, I meant to also include those waiting for 5 yr period.

Point is - Thome is Easily 1st Ballot HOF.
 

navamind

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McCutchen was (still might be) on a HOF track until his abysmal 2016 season (95 OPS+, 0.5 WAR (or -1 if you go by BR)). Even including it, he still has a career line of .292/.381/.486 line with a 138 OPS+ and 40.7 WAR in only 8 seasons. He has an MVP under his belt and three other top 5 finishes. He turns 30 in October.

Longoria has ~46 WAR under his belt and after a few meh seasons (2014/15), he's rebounded with a pretty strong 2016 campaign (125 OPS+ and 32 home runs, 4.4 WAR). He's got strong batting stats (.271/.345/.489 and 128 OPS+ at 3B) and is regarded as one of the best defensive 3B of his era (metrics and eye test, several Gold Gloves to his credit). He's only got five seasons with MVP votes and has never finished higher than sixth though, and not a lot of people think of him as a potential HOFer right now. Postseason stats are meh (.191/.262/.470), but he played a big role in the Rays' WS run (.262/.340/.762 with 3 doubles, 6 home runs and 11 RBI between the ALDS/ALCS). He turns 31 next month.

Longoria followed it up with a meh 2017 (2.5 fWAR, though B-R has him at 3.6) and his worst offensive season (95 wRC+). Unfortunately, last year's 2016 power surge looks like a mirage. His HR/FB rate was in line with 2014-15 (10.5% this year, 10.8% in 2014-15) after posting a 15.5% rate in 2016. His ISO has hovered around league average those three seasons.

Also doesn't help that Longo played very well in 2012, but he ended up missing half the season from the end of April through early August.
 

StanMarsh51

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Justin Verlander!

It's a long shot imo...he'll be 35 to start next year with just 188 wins, so he'd need 4 more years of 15-16 wins (or 5 years of 12-13 wins) just get 250. And it's usually a good bet that his rate stats will decrease from age 35-40, to the point where it'll hurt his HOF chances.
 

Dr. Strangelove

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I think Adrian Beltre sealed his spot getting to 3000 this year. Maybe Kershaw at some point if he keeps dominating but most of the pitchers out there seem to be in the "very good" category, imo.
 
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