A lot on the line for the Panda in 2014

[Band of Brothers]

I wish I was a fly on the wall when Sabean and his assistants get in a room and talk about Sandoval's final year of his current contract and what their plans for the future are.

All the pictures from Venezuela show Sandoval in good shape and ready to go but there are questions still out there.

Why did Sandoval wait so long to get in shape? Sure it's a contract year but is he serious about keeping the weight off after a new contract comes his way.

Can he now play 150 games plus per year now? The jury is out on this one and Sandoval needs to prove he can stay healthy and stay in the lineup.

Is Sabean thinking down the road where Posey may have to move to another position like 3rd base? Posey put on a extra 10 pounds of muscle in the off season to prevent him from wearing down late in the season. Posey may only have 2 or 3 years left behind the plate. Sandoval will generate a lot of trade talk especially if the Giants are not contending around the trade deadline.

There will be a lot on the line for Sandoval this year. I hope he turns it on and comes through and stays but Sabean is not afraid to make a deal . He traded Matt Williams and got roasted for it but that trade worked out well for the Giants. 2014 should be a interesting year especially for Sandoval and how much Sabean wants to bring him back.

:panda:

 

[ColinCoby]

I wish I was a fly on the wall when Sabean and his assistants get in a room and talk about Sandoval's final year of his current contract and what their plans for the future are.

All the pictures from Venezuela show Sandoval in good shape and ready to go but there are questions still out there.

Why did Sandoval wait so long to get in shape? Sure it's a contract year but is he serious about keeping the weight off after a new contract comes his way.

Can he now play 150 games plus per year now? The jury is out on this one and Sandoval needs to prove he can stay healthy and stay in the lineup.

Is Sabean thinking down the road where Posey may have to move to another position like 3rd base? Posey put on a extra 10 pounds of muscle in the off season to prevent him from wearing down late in the season. Posey may only have 2 or 3 years left behind the plate. Sandoval will generate a lot of trade talk especially if the Giants are not contending around the trade deadline.

There will be a lot on the line for Sandoval this year. I hope he turns it on and comes through and stays but Sabean is not afraid to make a deal . He traded Matt Williams and got roasted for it but that trade worked out well for the Giants. 2014 should be a interesting year especially for Sandoval and how much Sabean wants to bring him back.

:panda:

I remember a real nice thread some time ago in which Josh Hamilton's addictions were discussed. I believe tzill mentioned the likelihood of Hamilton's drug problems resurfacing, despite the fact that he is presently clean.

Is it possible that Sandoval can't control his addictions to food/an unhealthy lifestyle? The dude has had every reason to keep the weight off, and last year he ballooned up like the girl in the Willie Wonka movie. And if this is true, is he worth a big contract extension?

 

[tzill]

I remember a real nice thread some time ago in which Josh Hamilton's addictions were discussed. I believe tzill mentioned the likelihood of Hamilton's drug problems resurfacing, despite the fact that he is presently clean.

Is it possible that Sandoval can't control his addictions to food/an unhealthy lifestyle? The dude has had every reason to keep the weight off, and last year he ballooned up like the girl in the Willie Wonka movie. And if this is true, is he worth a big contract extension?

Well, I don't know much about food addiction. But I would say that there is zero chance he will not get a multiyear deal next offseason. I heard Bruce Jenkins on the radio today saying the exact opposite and it blew me away. There is just no way (absent catastrophic injury) Panda doesn't get very large money this offseason -- even if he has a down year. There are several AL clubs that can use him at 3B when he's slim, and DH when he's fat. The dude is an accomplished young 25 HR .300 hitter. And he switch hits.

Anybody who doesn't see how rare that is just doesn't know baseball. I'd give him Pence money now.

 

[calsnowskier]

Well, I don't know much about food addiction. But I would say that there is zero chance he will not get a multiyear deal next offseason. I heard Bruce Jenkins on the radio today saying the exact opposite and it blew me away. There is just no way (absent catastrophic injury) Panda doesn't get very large money this offseason -- even if he has a down year. There are several AL clubs that can use him at 3B when he's slim, and DH when he's fat. The dude is an accomplished young 25 HR .300 hitter. And he switch hits.

Anybody who doesn't see how rare that is just doesn't know baseball. I'd give him Pence money now.

Just because an AL team can/should give him that money does not mean we should. We do not have the DH spot to hide fat-Panda.

 

[tzill]

Just because an AL team can/should give him that money does not mean we should. We do not have the DH spot to hide fat-Panda.

Agreed, but as I've stated before -- that's the risk. I don't think it's that large a risk because he'd be eminently tradeable to just such an AL team. The risk you take of him staying fit and playing for another team is too much for this FO, IMO.

Upside -- a 30 HR 100 RBI .300 hitting plus defender entering his prime.
Downside -- a 25 HR 100 RBI .285 hitting fatty DH.

I don't think you can pass on the upside here.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Agreed, but as I've stated before -- that's the risk. I don't think it's that large a risk because he'd be eminently tradeable to just such an AL team. The risk you take of him staying fit and playing for another team is too much for this FO, IMO.

Upside -- a 30 HR 100 RBI .300 hitting plus defender entering his prime.
Downside -- a 25 HR 100 RBI .285 hitting fatty DH.

I don't think you can pass on the upside here.

Panda has ONCE had a 25 HR season (*exactly* 25), and has NEVER had a 100 RBI season (in fact, only once has he had more than 80 RBIs). Calling "25 HR 100 RBI" the *downside* is wishful thinking.

And 25 HRs is not what AL teams are looking for in a DH ; 35+ is what they want.

 

[msgkings322]

Panda has ONCE had a 25 HR season (*exactly* 25), and has NEVER had a 100 RBI season (in fact, only once has he had more than 80 RBIs). Calling "25 HR 100 RBI" the *downside* is wishful thinking.

And 25 HRs is not what AL teams are looking for in a DH ; 35+ is what they want.

Fair point but Panda has so rarely had a full year of hitting. Presumably he won't have to miss as much time now that his hamates are gone. And in a hitters park over 155 games he could hit 30+ HRS I think pretty easily.

Then again fat Panda probably doesn't play in 155 games a year, the fat would give him all sorts of minor to major injuries he'd have to miss time for.

 

[calsnowskier]

Panda has ONCE had a 25 HR season (*exactly* 25), and has NEVER had a 100 RBI season (in fact, only once has he had more than 80 RBIs). Calling "25 HR 100 RBI" the *downside* is wishful thinking.

And 25 HRs is not what AL teams are looking for in a DH ; 35+ is what they want.

35 HRs with a .240 Avg. If he has a .285 Avg (very doable for Panda), than 25(ish) HR would be very acceptable.

 

[tzill]

Panda has ONCE had a 25 HR season (*exactly* 25), and has NEVER had a 100 RBI season (in fact, only once has he had more than 80 RBIs). Calling "25 HR 100 RBI" the *downside* is wishful thinking.

And 25 HRs is not what AL teams are looking for in a DH ; 35+ is what they want.

Panda has never played for an AL team, with smaller parks and more men on base. If you want to change his downside to 25/80/.280 I can live with that.

And you're right, AL teams are looking for more bombs from their DH...thus why I said it's a downside.

My point stands: he'll get, and he's worth at LEAST Pence money.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Panda has never played for an AL team, with smaller parks and more men on base. If you want to change his downside to 25/80/.280 I can live with that.

And you're right, AL teams are looking for more bombs from their DH...thus why I said it's a downside.

My point stands: he'll get, and he's worth at LEAST Pence money.

Those upside/downside numbers are not valid for the *Giants*. Since your point is that the Giants shouldn't pass on him, is your logic simply that an AL team will give him more money because he's worth more to an AL team, especially one that plays in a band-box (like Texas)?

That's not a convincing argument for the GIANTS to sign him, I'm afraid.

 

[calsnowskier]

Those upside/downside numbers are not valid for the *Giants*. Since your point is that the Giants shouldn't pass on him, is your logic simply that an AL team will give him more money because he's worth more to an AL team, especially one that plays in a band-box (like Texas)?

That's not a convincing argument for the GIANTS to sign him, I'm afraid.

I think his point is that we sign him to a 5/90 right now. We have him while he is able to play 3B, and while Posey can still catch. Once either of these can no longer be done, trade Panda to the AL team that will be able to get better value out of him.

I do not subscribe to this, but I see his logic. I do not want to lose the walk-year production from Panda. He has shown that he is hard to motivate, and giving him 90M reasons to NOT be motivated is a bad strategy, IMHO. He has finally, IN HIS WALK YEAR put in the work to come to camp in great shape. I do not trust that he will do that for years 2, 3, or 4 of his 5-year deal.

 

[dredinis21]

I think his point is that we sign him to a 5/90 right now. We have him while he is able to play 3B, and while Posey can still catch. Once either of these can no longer be done, trade Panda to the AL team that will be able to get better value out of him.

I do not subscribe to this, but I see his logic. I do not want to lose the walk-year production from Panda. He has shown that he is hard to motivate, and giving him 90M reasons to NOT be motivated is a bad strategy, IMHO. He has finally, IN HIS WALK YEAR put in the work to come to camp in great shape. I do not trust that he will do that for years 2, 3, or 4 of his 5-year deal.

His interviews express how his TEAMMATES, namely Posey, Cain, and Pence, all went to him pleading how he needed to start taking care of himself and show up in shape and how he said that was the game changer for him. I don't think it is the money that drives Panda, not in a way that will keep him motivated to stay in shape. I think teammates that will be here for the next 5+ years telling him he needs to get his shit together seems to be the catalyst.

 

[calsnowskier]

His interviews express how his TEAMMATES, namely Posey, Cain, and Pence, all went to him pleading how he needed to start taking care of himself and show up in shape and how he said that was the game changer for him. I don't think it is the money that drives Panda, not in a way that will keep him motivated to stay in shape. I think teammates that will be here for the next 5+ years telling him he needs to get his shit together seems to be the catalyst.

If we have not seen players "find Jesus" during their walk years a thousand times before, I would be more apt to believe him when he says that. But the guy has a history of not taking things seriously (heck, that is a major part of his charm). I am not one to assume that he is the one-in-a-million guy who bucks the walk-year trend.

 

[msgkings322]

If we have not seen players "find Jesus" during their walk years a thousand times before, I would be more apt to believe him when he says that. But the guy has a history of not taking things seriously (heck, that is a major part of his charm). I am not one to assume that he is the one-in-a-million guy who bucks the walk-year trend.

This. Hate to be cynical but it's the same old story for many (most?) players. There are exceptions, like a Pence or a Posey, that obviously take a ton of pride in always being ready.

 

[tzill]

Those upside/downside numbers are not valid for the *Giants*. Since your point is that the Giants shouldn't pass on him, is your logic simply that an AL team will give him more money because he's worth more to an AL team, especially one that plays in a band-box (like Texas)?

That's not a convincing argument for the GIANTS to sign him, I'm afraid.

Perhaps I wasn't clear. My argument is twofold:

1. Hitters like Sandoval (young, switch, power, average) are pretty rare. He may eat himself out of the NL, but his upside is tremendous. The Giants have to take a chance on that upside since he's homegrown.
2. Even if he does balloon, he'll have trade value to an AL team. That team would sign him in a heartbeat to Pence money after the season. Thus, the Giants can't gamble on his downside.

Hope that's clearer. They really have to extend him, sooner rather than later.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Perhaps I wasn't clear. My argument is twofold:

1. Hitters like Sandoval (young, switch, power, average) are pretty rare. He may eat himself out of the NL, but his upside is tremendous. The Giants have to take a chance on that upside since he's homegrown.
2. Even if he does balloon, he'll have trade value to an AL team. That team would sign him in a heartbeat to Pence money after the season. Thus, the Giants can't gamble on his downside.

Hope that's clearer. They really have to extend him, sooner rather than later.

I think that it's too much of a risk to sign him. A fat, underproductive Panda will not bring much back in trade from an AL team and the Giants would have to eat salary (if he's productive, the G's wouldn't be trading him). He hasn't shown any consistancy (except that he eats too much). Let him play this year, and if he produces, offer him a (short) contract. Otherwise, a QO and a draft pick is just fine.

We don't need a Prince Fielder.

 

[tzill]

I think that it's too much of a risk to sign him. A fat, underproductive Panda will not bring much back in trade from an AL team and the Giants would have to eat salary (if he's productive, the G's wouldn't be trading him). He hasn't shown any consistancy (except that he eats too much). Let him play this year, and if he produces, offer him a (short) contract. Otherwise, a QO and a draft pick is just fine.

We don't need a Prince Fielder.

Ahhh, but let's say you're right -- Panda brings back a prospect or two. My premise is that an AL team will give him, AT MINIMUM, Pence money this offseason. Where's the downside risk? If he produces, Giants win. If he balloons up, they trade him to the AL, Giants win.

I don't see the "Giants have to eat salary" part. He won't Zito.

 

[dubabay]

The Giants like to make a big announcement just before the regular season starts (Cain extension 2 years ago, Posey's extension last year), maybe Panda this year?

 

[Mays-Fan]

Ahhh, but let's say you're right -- Panda brings back a prospect or two. My premise is that an AL team will give him, AT MINIMUM, Pence money this offseason. Where's the downside risk? If he produces, Giants win. If he balloons up, they trade him to the AL, Giants win.

I don't see the "Giants have to eat salary" part. He won't Zito.

Also to consider here is if the Giants are sellers come July, some AL team likely will significantly overpay for him.

The only tough choice for us is if Panda sucks and we are in strong contention come late July. But I wouldn't mind being in that position.

That being said, I would bet the mortgage that barring injury, Panda will have his best year yet this year.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Ahhh, but let's say you're right -- Panda brings back a prospect or two. My premise is that an AL team will give him, AT MINIMUM, Pence money this offseason. Where's the downside risk? If he produces, Giants win. If he balloons up, they trade him to the AL, Giants win.

I don't see the "Giants have to eat salary" part. He won't Zito.

The downside is if he returns to 2010 form (no injuries, just fat) : .268 /.323 /.409 /.732, 13 HRs . That's OK for a guy earning $500K, but not for a guy earning 18-20M. You really think that an AL team will say "sure, we'll take him, you don't have to pay any part of his future salary" to a guy who hit like that? No way, José. THAT is the downside.

A player earning 18-20M/yr should have a WAR of 3 to be "average" cost/performance. Panda has had a WAR of over 3 just twice so far. (I expect that this year he will be WELL over 3.) So the downside is that the Giants will not get their money's worth, sinking money into a player who doesn't produce enough. And it's all about the fat - the years that he's been in good shape, he hits well, and his defense is better. The year's that he balloons up, he can't defend worth shit.

Signing Panda long-term (4-5 years) is a risk - a pretty big risk. Also with a pretty big jackpot if it works out. I just wouldn't sign him for 5 years. If he really isn't about money (as he has been saying) try to talk him into a short-term deal (2014-16, 12-14-18?), raising his salary this year and giving him a chance to have 2-3 seasons of great ball. Then he turns 29 when he become a FA and can sign a HUGE 5-year contract with somebody else.