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A look back at 2013 rookies...

averagejoe

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With each passing year, it seems that the argument is that today’s rookies are more prepared for the NFL than the previous year. Are they? Many get excited about the new crop of rookies (like our buddy, The Foot).

I have to admit that I really didn’t know how to classify or rank last-season’s rookies. So much of this is subjective. I figured a safe thing to do was just list where the rookie was drafted (round.selection) and then show their fantasy scoring.

As you’ll see, the success or failure of some rookies is not based on how high they may have been drafted into the NFL.

Quarterbacks
1.16 – E.J. Manuel - 146 fantasy points (standard scoring)
2.07 – Geno Smith – 220
3.11 – Mike Glennon – 204

Running Backs
2.05 – Bernard – 149
2.16 – Bell – 163
2.26 – Ball – 83
2.29 – Lacy – 210
2.30 – Michael – 6
3.35 – Knile Davis – 53
7 more backs were drafted after Davis…
5.27 – Stacy – 162
3 more backs were drafted after Stacy…
6.19 - Ellington – 125
6.21 – Mike James – 37
7 more backs were drafted after James…
Undrafted – Benny Cunningham – 34

Wide Receivers
1.08 – Tavon Austin – 105
1.27 – Hopkins – 84
1.29 – Patterson – 124
2.02 – Hunter – 68
2.09 – Woods – 73
2.27 – Dobson – 82
3.12 – Terrance Williams – 113
3.14 – Allen – 156
7 more WR were drafted after Allen….
5.11 – Stills – 112
13 more WR were drafted after Stills…
Undrafted – Thompkins - 69

Some of these guys had high expectations (and I'm referring to standard fantasy leagues last season, and not dynasty leagues). If I remember correctly, Ball was supposed to be a mile high locomotive, but Moreno derailed that. And many had equally high expectations for Tavon Austin. Yet 4 rookies (some drafted much later than Austin) had a better rookie campaign.

It's a mystery.
 
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leftypower

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With each passing year, it seems that the argument is that today’s rookies are more prepared for the NFL than the previous year. Are they? Many get excited about the new crop of rookies (like our buddy, The Foot).

I have to admit that I really didn’t know how to classify or rank last-season’s rookies. So much of this is subjective. I figured a safe thing to do was just list where the rookie was drafted (round.selection) and then show their fantasy scoring.

As you’ll see, the success or failure of some rookies is not based on how high they may have been drafted into the NFL.

Quarterbacks
1.16 – E.J. Manuel - 146 fantasy points (standard scoring)
2.07 – Geno Smith – 220
3.11 – Mike Glennon – 204

Running Backs
2.05 – Bernard – 149
2.16 – Bell – 163
2.26 – Ball – 83
2.29 – Lacy – 210
2.30 – Michael – 6
3.35 – Knile Davis – 53
7 more backs were drafted after Davis…
5.27 – Stacy – 162
3 more backs were drafted after Stacy…
6.19 - Ellington – 125
6.21 – Mike James – 37
7 more backs were drafted after James…
Undrafted – Benny Cunningham – 34

Wide Receivers
1.08 – Tavon Austin – 105
1.27 – Hopkins – 84
1.29 – Patterson – 124
2.02 – Hunter – 68
2.09 – Woods – 73
2.27 – Dobson – 82
3.12 – Terrance Williams – 113
3.14 – Allen – 156
7 more WR were drafted after Allen….
5.11 – Stills – 112
13 more WR were drafted after Stills…
Undrafted – Thompkins - 69

Some of these guys had high expectations (and I'm referring to standard fantasy leagues last season, and not dynasty leagues). If I remember correctly, Ball was supposed to be a mile high locomotive, but Moreno derailed that. And many had equally high expectations for Tavon Austin. Yet 4 rookies (some drafted much later than Austin) had a better rookie campaign.

It's a mystery.


There is a lot to digest there and a couple of things stand out. Talent of the guy is only a small portion of the formula as it translates to success in the NFL. The intangibles like; coaching, offensive scheme, opportunity, success of the team, etc, have as much or more impact on their performance. Lacy landed in a very good spot and made the most of it. Ball didn't protect Peyton as well as Moreno, fumbled a few times - thus lost his opportunity despite the fact he is a better runner (Peyton/Fox factors). Bell had no real competition and Bernard fit the Gruden offense.
This year you can already see the same type scenario shaping up. If the rookie QB's go to teams with established veteran, they sit. If not, they play. If its a bad team with no oline they will not make a splash. If Watkins goes to Jacksonville, Oakland or Cleveland his ceiling drops below what it would be with the Rams or Falcons. In other words, you should hold expectations until after the draft. If a guy with a little less talent ends up in a good situation he will likely be better in fantasy than a more talented guy going to a bad one.
My penny.
 

averagejoe

You fell victim to one of the classic blunders.
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I hear ya Lefty. The other guy that jumps out is Stills in N'Orleans. Look how many WR were drafted ahead of him. Then he lands on a team where the ball is distributed in such a way that even the fantasy relevance of anyone not named Graham is a question mark. Yet Stills made a significant impact - talk about a sleeper!
 

leftypower

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Thank goodness the draft is finally around the corner - - we shall now see which of the 100 million 'expert' mocks are most correct. .....
 

leftypower

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Thank goodness the draft is finally around the corner - - we shall now see which of the 100 million 'expert' mocks are most correct. .....

none
 
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