A.L. Central Smack Talk 2014

[navamind]

I agree, kind of similar to where jose bautista started hitting 40 bombs a year.

I don't think it's that similar. Scherzer was a good pitcher before his big 2013 year (he had a 114 ERA+ in 2012 and 120 ERA+ in 2010). His breakout was far less surprising than Bautista's IMO. Bautista was a fringe OF prior to 2010. Only thing that could have hinted at Bautista's breakout was his September 2009 performance, when he batted 10 home runs that month.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Well, Doug, I will bow to you on this one. I was wrong. Scherzer got incredible run support last year, and it was his first-ever season under a 3.00 ERA -- first under a 3.50 ERA, in fact. I expected a good season, but nothing close to last year. Glad to be wrong on this one.

Yeah -- Scherzer is the ace of this staff. He surpassed Verlander last year and it isn't even really close this year. I absolutely love Verlander, but I'd rather have Scherzer signed to Verlander's contract.

Verlander's is still a great pitcher, but his velocity has continued to drop and while he still has a plus fastball -- it is no longer one of the best in baseball.

Really hope the Tigers find a way to keep Scherzer, but I just don't see how it will be possible. It is going to suck to lose him and get nothing more than a draft pick in return.

 

[gvsulaker82]

I don't think it's that similar. Scherzer was a good pitcher before his big 2013 year (he had a 114 ERA+ in 2012 and 120 ERA+ in 2010). His breakout was far less surprising than Bautista's IMO. Bautista was a fringe OF prior to 2010. Only thing that could have hinted at Bautista's breakout was his September 2009 performance, when he batted 10 home runs that month.

Agree in a sense. Scherzer clearly had the talent to put it together and I always thought he would. I never thought he would have a season as good as 2013 though. I thought scherzer would be a good pitcher but never did I think he would be that good. So for HOW good both of them became, yes definitely. While scherzers talent was promising his inconsistency was frustrating. My thought process when comparing them ad more to do with they had both been in the league for a while and then they both put up seasons that were MUCH better than anything in the past.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

JD Martinez still sucks.

I was just talking with my buddy about him yesterday. I was lost on how this guy hit 10 homeruns in 17 games at Triple A? He always seems to be late on fastballs. I'd rather see Dangerous Don Kelly getting Martinez's ABs or better yet -- leave in Rajah Davis -- He causes some serious havoc on the basepaths.

 

[gvsulaker82]

Yeah -- Scherzer is the ace of this staff. He surpassed Verlander last year and it isn't even really close this year. I absolutely love Verlander, but I'd rather have Scherzer signed to Verlander's contract.

Verlander's is still a great pitcher, but his velocity has continued to drop and while he still has a plus fastball -- it is no longer one of the best in baseball.

Really hope the Tigers find a way to keep Scherzer, but I just don't see how it will be possible. It is going to suck to lose him and get nothing more than a draft pick in return.

Its not, they should have traded max the past offseason while they could still get something for him.

With that being said at this point I would take JV still. I will take elite consistency for eight years (minus 2008) over one year and one and a half months into this season. Not to mention JV has the ability to close out games while max still hasnt shown he is capable although I think he should be given the chance. Anyow its good to be debating over whos better between two cy young winners (one of them being mvp) its good to be a tigs fan.

 

[gvsulaker82]

I was just talking with my buddy about him yesterday. I was lost on how this guy hit 10 homeruns in 17 games at Triple A? He always seems to be late on fastballs. I'd rather see Dangerous Don Kelly getting Martinez's ABs or better yet -- leave in Rajah Davis -- He causes some serious havoc on the basepaths.

Because its triple A. Fringe major league players can rake against minor league pitchers. Hes facing guys that throw 95-100 now.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

While scherzers talent was promising his inconsistency was frustrating.

Scherzer's biggest issue has always been repeating his delivery. When he loses his arm slot -- His fastball will drop from 95-98, all the way down to 90-92. He also loses his control.

That is why he was sent down to Triple A a couple years ago to try and help him correct that issue. He seems to have it down now. I think Jeff Jones has done wonders for him and doesn't get enough credit. In Scherzer's last start -- he started to lose his control and the camera panned to Jeff Jones showing him to bring his glove down before starting his delivery and Scherzer struck the next guy out in 3 pitches and didn't have an issue with his control the rest of the game.

As long as Scherzer can continue to repeat his delivery consistently, which he has shown he can the last couple years. He is going to be lights out. His 3 quarter arm delivery really hides the ball from the batters and makes his plus fastball look even faster than it is. Learning how to throw all his pitches for strikes at any count makes him unhittable in a lot of games.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Its not, they should have traded max the past offseason while they could still get something for him

I was saying that last year. We should have held an auction for Scherzer. Sell him to the highest bidder and restock the farm system and picked up a bat or arm on the MLB roster too. Teams would have been lining up for Scherzer.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

I will take elite consistency for eight years (minus 2008) over one year and one and a half months into this season

I agree -- Verlander just scares me, as his velocity has continued to drop ever since his MVP season. He is still a tremendous pitcher, but IMO, Scherzer will be the better pitcher out of the two for the remainder of their careers.

Scherzer doesn't have the mileage on his arm that Verlander does and his velocity has remained consistent.

As you said though -- you can't really go wrong with either one of these guys. It is like arguing if the new 100 dollar bill is better than the old 100 dollar bill.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

I will take elite consistency for eight years (minus 2008) over one year and one and a half months into this season

I agree -- Verlander just scares me, as his velocity has continued to drop ever since his MVP season. He is still a tremendous pitcher, but IMO, Scherzer will be the better pitcher out of the two for the remainder of their careers.

Scherzer doesn't have the mileage on his arm that Verlander does and his velocity has remained consistent.

As you said though -- you can't really go wrong with either one of these guys. It is like arguing if the new 100 dollar bill is better than the old 100 dollar bill.

 

[gvsulaker82]

I was saying that last year. We should have held an auction for Scherzer. Sell him to the highest bidder and restock the farm system and picked up a bat or arm on the MLB roster too. Teams would have been lining up for Scherzer.

Yeah as much as I hate the thought of losing the guy it just made and still makes way too much sense financially and in the return they would have got. Instead they gambled so as tigers fans if they dont win the WS this year then not trading scherzer when they could have gotten something in return will be one of DD's biggest mistakes.

 

[gvsulaker82]

I agree -- Verlander just scares me, as his velocity has continued to drop ever since his MVP season. He is still a tremendous pitcher, but IMO, Scherzer will be the better pitcher out of the two for the remainder of their careers.

Scherzer doesn't have the mileage on his arm that Verlander does and his velocity has remained consistent.

As you said though -- you can't really go wrong with either one of these guys. It is like arguing if the new 100 dollar bill is better than the old 100 dollar bill.

Its quite possible that max does have the better remaining career between the two and I do agree JVs velocity drop last year coupled with the amount of innings scares me. I wonder how much of that has to do with JV just being a very smart guy and knowing that being such a strikeout pitcher was getting his pitch count up too quickly so he learned to adjust so he could pitch later into games? Anyhow take into comsideration that scherzer is still pitching for a huge payday while JV is not. Once scherzer receives his contract things may change a bit.

 

[navamind]

I agree -- Verlander just scares me, as his velocity has continued to drop ever since his MVP season. He is still a tremendous pitcher, but IMO, Scherzer will be the better pitcher out of the two for the remainder of their careers.

Scherzer doesn't have the mileage on his arm that Verlander does and his velocity has remained consistent.

As you said though -- you can't really go wrong with either one of these guys. It is like arguing if the new 100 dollar bill is better than the old 100 dollar bill.

I agree -- Verlander just scares me, as his velocity has continued to drop ever since his MVP season. He is still a tremendous pitcher, but IMO, Scherzer will be the better pitcher out of the two for the remainder of their careers.

Scherzer doesn't have the mileage on his arm that Verlander does and his velocity has remained consistent.

As you said though -- you can't really go wrong with either one of these guys. It is like arguing if the new 100 dollar bill is better than the old 100 dollar bill.

I take it Verlander scares you.

 

[StanMarsh51]

I don't think it's that similar. Scherzer was a good pitcher before his big 2013 year (he had a 114 ERA+ in 2012 and 120 ERA+ in 2010). His breakout was far less surprising than Bautista's IMO. Bautista was a fringe OF prior to 2010. Only thing that could have hinted at Bautista's breakout was his September 2009 performance, when he batted 10 home runs that month.

Not to mention, Scherzer had some dominant stretches before his 2013 season, particularly his 2012 and 2010 second halves.

2012 2nd half: 2.69 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 90 IP
2010 2nd half: 2.47 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 102 IP

 

[Howie115]

Its good to see the pen doing better but im just not sold on guys like joba, coke, reed and krol. Not one of them has that impressive of stuff. While they may be doing ok now, the only guy in the pen that has legit stuff is nathan...and hanrahan if healthy.

I have to agree, and I'm only cautiously optimistic. They've done well over a three-week sample, which isn't much.

What's encouraging is Krol throws strikes, Al Al is throwing strikes (4 walks in 17 innings, well below his career average of 6 walks per 9 IP), and Joba has been better than expected. Reed and Coke are both replaceable, and one will be gone when Hanrahan is healthy enough.

 

[broncosmitty]

JVs loss of velocity doesn't bother me hardly at all. His ever climbing walk rate does however. Im talking over the course of seasons, not games.

 

[Howie115]

I wonder how much of that has to do with JV just being a very smart guy and knowing that being such a strikeout pitcher was getting his pitch count up too quickly so he learned to adjust so he could pitch later into games?

When Verlander got his plant foot mechanics corrected in September last year and into the playoffs, he was lights-out. Seems like he needs another minor adjustment, as he is walking too many again this year. I'm not as much worried about his velocity as I am his location. A well-placed 93 mph fastball is still very effective, and I've seen him dial it up to 97 enough times this season to know he still has it when he needs it. I do think he is consciously dialing back his fastball velocity and throwing a lot more curveballs so far this season, as a way to limit his wear-and-tear and be strong through October.

The other thing on Verlander is his durability ... I think his delivery and arm slot lend themselves to a longer career than the mechanics that Scherzer has. Max's delivery just looks more violent to me, but I'm no expert.

 

[Howie115]

I was just talking with my buddy about him yesterday. I was lost on how this guy hit 10 homeruns in 17 games at Triple A? He always seems to be late on fastballs.

- - - - -

Because its triple A. Fringe major league players can rake against minor league pitchers. Hes facing guys that throw 95-100 now.

Yeah, I was remarking to some friends that JD Martinez is basically Rod Allen -- a guy who wrecks minor league pitching, but can't hack it when he faces big-league stuff.

 

[navamind]

Every couple years baseball gets a new stat with a mix of perimeters. I am like you Smitty, when I look at normal stats they tell a story. When you mix a formula of X/y+16% = RS *2 / blah blah... tell same story, JD Martinez still sucks.

wRC and wRC+ | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library

wOBA | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library

wOBA has been around for a while now, and I think it's a fantastic stat. OBP and SLG% have opposite flaws (SLG doesn't include walks, OBP counts all hits equally) and it tries to cover both of those flaws. wRC is weighted runs created, a stat based on wOBA. And wRC+ is a park and league adjusted version of it. It's a lot like OPS+.

Even if we disagree on what stats to use, I think we can all agree baseball's a fantastic game.

 

[navamind]

Yeah, I was remarking to some friends that JD Martinez is basically Rod Allen -- a guy who wrecks minor league pitching, but can't hack it when he faces big-league stuff.

Allen only had 54 plate appearances at the major league level though (12 in 1983, 31 in 1984, and 11 more in 1988), so I don't think you can say he got a real shot. J.D. Martinez has over 1000 PA.