MLB Daily Thread: 9/18/2017: Price the long reliever, Astros clinch, Bellinger sets record

[navamind]

from WEEI



Red Sox left-hander Chris Sale will finish no worse than second in the American League Cy Young race, but that doesn't mean he's finishing the season on a roll.

The award that was once Sale's to lose now looks like it has ticked into the column of former winner Corey Kluber, the Indians ace who leads the American League in wins (16) and ERA (2.44).

Sale had a chance to win No. 17 on Friday night in Tampa, but in what has become a disturbingly regular occurrence since the start of August, he didn't quite have it.

Sale allowed four runs on six hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 13-6 victory. He was touched for two more home runs -- that's nine in his last nine starts -- and surrendered his share of hard contact, particularly on hung sliders and changeups. He would've taken the loss, but the Red Sox rallied with a three-run ninth to force extra innings and then won it with a seven-run 15th. For more on the game, click here.

While there had been some thought that Sale was tipping pitched against the Indians last month, the issue on Friday was execution, and Sale lacked his early-season crispness.

Since Aug. 1, he is 3-4 with a 4.25 ERA. This continues a career-long trend of Sale wearing down in the second half, prompting the natural question of how good he'll be when he makes the first postseason start of his career next month.

September remains the only month of Sale's career in which he has a losing record (10-15) and it's home to his worst ERA (3.80) by a wide margin, too. It's also worth noting that he has allowed twice as many homers in August (30) and September (34) as any other month.

So what's going on? Given Sale's frame, it's easy to wonder how much of the issue is endurance. At 6-foot-6 and 180 pounds, Sale is a string bean. By means of comparison, former Celtics forward Jae Crowder is also 6-6, and he outweighs Sale by 55 pounds.

If that's the problem, then the Red Sox could be in trouble come October. The 6-foot-4, 215-pound Kluber, for example, is a chiseled specimen who's built to withstand the rigors of the postseason. It remains to be seen how Sale will handle that extra pressure, as well as the increased frequency of appearances, since starters are often asked to pitch on short rest.

On Friday, Sale blew leads of 1-0 and 2-1, in part by serving up homers to Wilson Ramos and Adeiny Hechavarria. He was yanked in the sixth after allowing a triple to Peter Bourjos.

Sale (16-8) saw his ERA climbed to 2.86, though he did boost his league-leading strikeout total to 287. With three starts left in the season, he's in excellent position to join Pedro Martinez as the only hurlers in team history to record 300 Ks, though it will take an average of nine punchouts a game to tie Martinez's 1999 mark of 313.

That's just a nice footnote, though. The real issue will be making sure Sale's right when the playoffs start, and on that front, time is growing short.

Sale's been a bit shaky the last month or so, but I find it hard to complain about given how amazing he was for the first four months or so. Sale's 2017 season is one of the best by a Red Sox pitcher in my lifetime, if not one of the best in franchise history. Even with his recent struggles, his 2nd half ERA sits at 3.05 and his peripherals are still strong. I'm not too worried about him. Even the best pitchers in the league run into rough patches. Look at Kershaw's 2015 season, he had a 3.86 ERA at the end of May. His ERA at the end of the season was 2.13.

Kluber's just been on an insane run since coming off the DL (1.69 ERA and 211/21 K/BB in 154.1 innings).

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

Sale's been a bit shaky the last month or so, but I find it hard to complain about given how amazing he was for the first four months or so. Sale's 2017 season is one of the best by a Red Sox pitcher in my lifetime, if not one of the best in franchise history. Even with his recent struggles, his 2nd half ERA sits at 3.05 and his peripherals are still strong. I'm not too worried about him. Even the best pitchers in the league run into rough patches. Look at Kershaw's 2015 season, he had a 3.86 ERA at the end of May. His ERA at the end of the season was 2.13.

Kluber's just been on an insane run since coming off the DL (1.69 ERA and 211/21 K/BB in 154.1 innings).

 

[navamind]

also, while it's true that Sale's ERA and HR rates are higher in September than most months, his 3.04 xFIP is pretty much in line in with his career xFIP of 2.99. also, I'm not sure how reliable monthly splits are.

 

[Rock Strongo]

yoann moncada since his call up, and new lighter bat abreu recommended:

59 PA
.302/.373/.509

3 HR
7 RBI

12 games, still 15 k's...

 

[redseat]

It's Kluber's to lose now imo.

 

[soxfan1468927]

That's true, but the value a single has over a walk is that, when first base is open, it can advance a baserunner on second or third. I think the stat geeks need to find a way to put individual value on a walk rather give it equal value within OPS. With all the stat geeks charting new territory with baseball stats, seems like someone could come up with a computer program which could do this.

But in OPS a hit is more valuable than a walk

 

[navamind]

@PolarVortex

Linear Weights | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library

wOBA | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library

 

[StanMarsh51]

That's true, but the value a single has over a walk is that, when first base is open, it can advance a baserunner on second or third. I think the stat geeks need to find a way to put individual value on a walk rather give it equal value within OPS. With all the stat geeks charting new territory with baseball stats, seems like someone could come up with a computer program which could do this.

OPS values hits more than walks, so I'm not sure what you're arguing about....hits are included in slugging percentage (which is a part of OPS), whereas walks aren't included in slugging percentage.

 

[tducey]

Yeah, Kluber probably wins the AL Cy Young award but Chris Sale is probably #2.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Yeah, Kluber probably wins the AL Cy Young award but Chris Sale is probably #2.

I tend to agree, and at this point, I don't think there is a fair amount of space between Kluber and Sale, as well as between Sale and #3.

Assuming normal rotation, Sale has three starts left, but I assume they'll skip one to make sure he's lined up for Game 1.

Normal rotation for Sale would be Wednesday @ BAL, 9/26 vs TOR, and 10/1 vs HOU. I'd be surprised if he pitched the last game of the season (10/1) unless they were in a must-win situation. Then again, with the days off and the Wild Card game, he could pitch on 10/1 and start Game 2 on regular rest. Also to consider is that their last four games are against the Astros, who they might be facing in the ALDS - would they want him pitching back-to-back starts against that offense?

I'd probably pitch him Wednesday against BAL, give him a full week of rest and pitch him 9/27 against TOR and then shut him down until Game 1.

If you managed the Red Sox what would you do?

 

[WiggyRuss]

Sale's been a bit shaky the last month or so, but I find it hard to complain about given how amazing he was for the first four months or so. Sale's 2017 season is one of the best by a Red Sox pitcher in my lifetime, if not one of the best in franchise history. Even with his recent struggles, his 2nd half ERA sits at 3.05 and his peripherals are still strong. I'm not too worried about him. Even the best pitchers in the league run into rough patches. Look at Kershaw's 2015 season, he had a 3.86 ERA at the end of May. His ERA at the end of the season was 2.13.

Kluber's just been on an insane run since coming off the DL (1.69 ERA and 211/21 K/BB in 154.1 innings).

no doubt...no shame in Sale's game...hes been amazing.

Kluber has just been unreal since coming off the DL. Honestly one of the most dominant pitching stretches I can remember--- and the winning streak really highlighted it.

I think its Kluber's to lose at this point---- but hes far from a lock.

 

[PolarVortex]

OPS values hits more than walks, so I'm not sure what you're arguing about....hits are included in slugging percentage (which is a part of OPS), whereas walks aren't included in slugging percentage.

And walks are included in OBP.

 

[PolarVortex]

But in OPS a hit is more valuable than a walk

singles aren't.

 

[StanMarsh51]

And walks are included in OBP.

So are singles...

So if a single is included in BOTH OBP and SLG but a walk is included in only OBP, then OPS values hits more than walks, correct?

If someone walks in their only plate appearance, their OPS is 1.000 (1.000 OBP + 0.000 SLG), but if someone singles in their only plate appearance, their OPS is 2.000 (1.000 OBP + 1.000 SLG).

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

a walk is uncluded in only OBP

 

[StanMarsh51]

 

[PolarVortex]

Boeing is paying editors $18 an hour. I'll send you an application

 

[PolarVortex]

So are singles...

So if a single is included in BOTH OBP and SLG but a walk is included in only OBP, then OPS values hits more than walks, correct?

If someone walks in their only plate appearance, their OPS is 1.000 (1.000 OBP + 0.000 SLG), but if someone singles in their only plate appearance, their OPS is 2.000 (1.000 OBP + 1.000 SLG).

So you agree, batting average is more important than OBP. Good.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

So are singles...

So if a single is included in BOTH OBP and SLG but a walk is included in only OBP, then OPS values hits more than walks, correct?

If someone walks in their only plate appearance, their OPS is 1.000 (1.000 OBP + 0.000 SLG), but if someone singles in their only plate appearance, their OPS is 2.000 (1.000 OBP + 1.000 SLG).

Two guys have 4 PAs each. Player A gets one single. Player B gets one walk.

Player A: .250 BA / .250 OBP / .250 SLG / .500 OPS

Player B: .000 BA / .250 OPB / .000 SLG / .250 OPS

Seems OPS values a hit more than a walk.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Boeing is paying editors $18 an hour. I'll send you an application

Thanks! I'll put my mushroom stamp on it and send it back.