6/11 GDT Champs @ Bucs

[msgkings322]

I personally would rather just have him ride off into the distance. I love the idea of Tim sticking around for the bullpen, I'm not so thrilled about it costing $10 million+ per year. There's enough arms in the minors to cover for that.

It's tough to cut losses like that, Timmeh will always be one of my all-time favorites. But sometimes you just have to move on.

There's always the chance that he signs with Seattle or whomever and actually does become a good starter again, and then we've got another Beltran-for-Wheeler-hindsight situation, but...that aint the way to bet

 

[msgkings322]

Agreed on this, I think rental-type guys would be a mistake. I don't want another Beltran (not that we'd be giving up another Wheeler).

But do we have enough to outbid others for non-rental guys?

 

[Mays-Fan]

Some Scutaro news:


If you read the article, he's facing a decision. Play through the injury but risk permanent damage. Or heal up for a couple months.

Or maybe he could get some advice from Ronnie Lott...

 

[msgkings322]

This. Outstanding.

Nobody will EVER take away the CY years and the general Freakiness that WAS Timmah. However, much like BWeez, Ross the Boss, UUUU, and Rent it's time to move on.

Possible exception if he re-signs to the bullpen and grows his hair back out.

Doesn't he need to grow a beard to truly join our pen?
I guess he didn't need one in last year's WS...

 

[msgkings322]

Or maybe he could get some advice from Ronnie Lott...

But then again, smashmouth safeties don't need pinkies. Infielders do.

 

[tzill]

Good points all, we're pretty much in agreement. I don't know why Sabean would necessarily avoid guys with another year on their deal like Peavy, since Timmy is all but gone next year.

I'm not necessarily saying Peavy isn't an option, just that there are less attractive things about that deal:

1. He's $14.5MM this year and next, and has a decent chance to vest his $15MM option for 2015.
2. He's only been healthy one of the last four years
3. He's been a #3 guy this year, although it's still early
4. He'll be paid like a #2 guy, which he can be if healthy.

Nolasco:
1. $11.5 this year and then he's a FA
2. He's been healthy since 2008
3. He's been a #3 guy this year, and a #3/4 guy his whole career
4. He's paid like a #3/#4 guy

I'm sure there are other guys on SabeySabes radar too, but if it were me, I'd go with Nolasco. Less upside, less risk, but probably enough to get the SP over the hump.

 

[tzill]

I personally would rather just have him ride off into the distance. I love the idea of Tim sticking around for the bullpen, I'm not so thrilled about it costing $10 million+ per year. There's enough arms in the minors to cover for that.

It's tough to cut losses like that, Timmeh will always be one of my all-time favorites. But sometimes you just have to move on.

Only the elite closers get that kind of money. Timmy would get much less.

 

[tzill]

Agreed on this, I think rental-type guys would be a mistake. I don't want another Beltran (not that we'd be giving up another Wheeler).

I disagree. I think Nolasco would be a good fit and he's definitely a rental.

 

[SFGRTB]

But do we have enough to outbid others for non-rental guys?

Yes, but it would hurt our system bad. I'm on the wait-and-see train FWIW. The clock is ticking louder though.

 

[SFGRTB]

Only the elite closers get that kind of money. Timmy would get much less.

How many situations come around like Tim's though? He could be a 2 inning closer, a new breed of baseball. He could be a piggy-back starter like what the Rockies employed (though scrapped this year). IMO I don't think he gets anything less than $10million but honestly I don't think ever we'll know until he hits the open market.

 

[msgkings322]

I'm not necessarily saying Peavy isn't an option, just that there are less attractive things about that deal:

1. He's $14.5MM this year and next, and has a decent chance to vest his $15MM option for 2015.
2. He's only been healthy one of the last four years
3. He's been a #3 guy this year, although it's still early
4. He'll be paid like a #2 guy, which he can be if healthy.

Nolasco:
1. $11.5 this year and then he's a FA
2. He's been healthy since 2008
3. He's been a #3 guy this year, and a #3/4 guy his whole career
4. He's paid like a #3/#4 guy

I'm sure there are other guys on SabeySabes radar too, but if it were me, I'd go with Nolasco. Less upside, less risk, but probably enough to get the SP over the hump.

Re: Peavy, if 2. is really a thing, the option in 1. isn't happening. He's on the DL now, for instance.
And we're kind of splitting hairs on #3 guy vs #2 money, if you want to win you need to pay guys to play for you. Plus #2 money, #3 money, and all other money is only going higher and higher every year. I just read 1 WAR is now around $6 mil, was only $5 mil just recently.

But yeah, Nolasco is a good fit too. I'd be ok with either. Fortunately there are options, and Sabean is a good GM, so we'll see.

 

[SFGRTB]

I disagree. I think Nolasco would be a good fit and he's definitely a rental.

I think he'd be a good fit to pitch, but I think the Marlins will put a reasonably big price tag on him. I'm going to dig a little bit to find some comparisons and see the kind of value teams gave up.

 

[msgkings322]

Yes, but it would hurt our system bad. I'm on the wait-and-see train FWIW. The clock is ticking louder though.

Well as mentioned, no one is getting traded now. We have another month before it's even close to realistic, so you have another month to wait and see. Again, if we can just stay a few games back of the division we will make a move, if we really collapse we'll probably write this year off.

 

[tzill]

Yes, but it would hurt our system bad. I'm on the wait-and-see train FWIW. The clock is ticking louder though.

Yeah, I wouldn't be willing to part with too many of the following:

Peguero
Kieshnick
Brown
Heston
Kickham
Hembree
Dunning
Susac
Minicozzi
Duvall
Panik
Herrera
Snodgrass
Maday
Villalona
Bond
Blach
Blackburn
Escobar
Forjet
Bandilla
Hall
Osich
Surkamp
Crick
Mejia
Cavan
Robles
Flores
Stratton
Agosta
Gregorio
Mizenko
Okert
Law
Duffy

 

[msgkings322]

How many situations come around like Tim's though? He could be a 2 inning closer, a new breed of baseball. He could be a piggy-back starter like what the Rockies employed (though scrapped this year). IMO I don't think he gets anything less than $10million but honestly I don't think ever we'll know until he hits the open market.

More like back to the future, Gossage/Eckersley style.

 

[msgkings322]

Yeah, I wouldn't be willing to part with too many of the following:

Peguero
Kieshnick
Brown
Heston
Kickham
Hembree
Dunning
Susac
Minicozzi
Duvall
Panik
Herrera
Snodgrass
Maday
Villalona
Bond
Blach
Blackburn
Escobar
Forjet
Bandilla
Hall
Osich
Surkamp
Crick
Mejia
Cavan
Robles
Flores
Stratton
Agosta
Gregorio
Mizenko
Okert
Law
Duffy

Hmmm...well, maybe the Marlins will take Timmy and Kontos for Nolasco?

 

[tzill]

Well as mentioned, no one is getting traded now. We have another month before it's even close to realistic, so you have another month to wait and see. Again, if we can just stay a few games back of the division we will make a move, if we really collapse we'll probably write this year off.

Can't see SabeySabes and Baer "write this year off." Waaaaay too much money to be lost with dwindling attendance.

Like it or not, and some years it won't be a good thing, we won't be sellers anytime soon.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Only the elite closers get that kind of money. Timmy would get much less.

Yeah, and I'm guessing he won't stay in SF to do that, much as he would probably be good at it. Not after what he's done here, and seeing Cain and Bum surpass him. Superstars generally don't want to hang around and devolve into role players.

The guy has won 2 CYs and 2 WS (so far) here, and even though he didn't sign for 5/120 like he probably could have a couple years ago, he has still made a king's ransom by almost any standard. If he wants to be a starter in Seattle, he should probably do so. Who knows? The change to his home state might reinvigorate him.

I wish him nothing but the best no matter what his decision is.

 

[tzill]

Hmmm...well, maybe the Marlins will take Timmy and Kontos for Nolasco?

Heck, I'd throw in Tanaka...but I'm a generous guy.

 

[tzill]

Yeah, and I'm guessing he won't stay in SF to do that, much as he would probably be good at it. Not after what he's done here, and seeing Cain and Bum surpass him. Superstars generally don't want to hang around and devolve into role players.

The guy has won 2 CYs and 2 WS (so far) here, and even though he didn't sign for 5/120 like he probably could have a couple years ago, he has still made a king's ransom by almost any standard. If he wants to be a starter in Seattle, he should probably do so. Who knows? The change to his home state might reinvigorate him.

I wish him nothing but the best no matter what his decision is.

agreed. Coming back in the bullpen is a 4-1 shot against. I wish him well in Seattle. He can fornicate the A'ss (hey, that works!).