6/11 GDT Champs @ Bucs

[Mays-Fan]

From me, though, so it means next to nothing.

If I can make one person smile it's all worth it.



I know you're out there, I can hear you breathing. Is this thing on?...

 

[SF11704]

Agreed, but he was not horrible last night. In 4.2 innings, he gave up 2 earned.

Give the Pirates credit - they are legit.

More frustrating is that we got collared by a guy making his first ML start, albeit a former No 1 overall.

Have to respectfully disagree .... he didn't make it through 5 innings (4.2) and threw 102 pitches. This I feel is the profile he's had for the past three years .... struggles to get past 5 innings. Usually has a pitch count near or a little over 100. Seems to go deep with many batters. Don't see many swing throughs any longer although he is still trying to throw it past them.

In the past I always felt it was the combination of his fastball and curve that made him very difficult to adjust to. Maybe a lot of that was tied to his velosity and the resulting difference between the pitches. Batters just seem to foul off everythingb he throws now.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Have to respectfully disagree .... he didn't make it through 5 innings (4.2) and threw 102 pitches. This I feel is the profile he's had for the past three years .... struggles to get past 5 innings. Usually has a pitch count near or a little over 100. Seems to go deep with many batters. Don't see many swing throughs any longer although he is still trying to throw it past them.

In the past I always felt it was the combination of his fastball and curve that made him very difficult to adjust to. Maybe a lot of that was tied to his velosity and the resulting difference between the pitches. Batters just seem to foul off everythingb he throws now.

I guess it depends on one's definition of "horrible". He had the good outing the time before, and it's not like he got bombed here.

However, your analysis is well taken. As I've stated before, in his glory days, he relied on super-flexibility ("The Freak") to generate speed and spin. There was a time when his change-up was rated the best pitch in baseball. But now that he is almost 29, his body is probably quite worn out and he can't produce the speed and spin that he used to. He's lost a good 5 mph off his fastball, and movement, and so batters are probably sitting on that change much more than they used to.

 

[SF11704]

I guess it depends on one's definition of "horrible". He had the good outing the time before, and it's not like he got bombed here.

However, your analysis is well taken. As I've stated before, in his glory days, he relied on super-flexibility ("The Freak") to generate speed and spin. There was a time when his change-up was rated the best pitch in baseball. But now that he is almost 29, his body is probably quite worn out and he can't produce the speed and spin that he used to. He's lost a good 5 mph off his fastball, and movement, and so batters are probably sitting on that change much more than they used to.

Yeah, you are correct about using 'one's' definition of horrible. If I look at Timmy as just any other pitcher he's Ok. Not terrific and not a complete mess either. He'll get the job done 50% of the time. But if I look at Timmy as a 23M a year 2 time CY winner ... he's horrible ... at least from an investment perspective. Can't blame the player. Things happen. Nobody will ever be sure what's happened to timmy these past few years. Just doesn't appear to be the same pitcher. It's possible that he finds ghis way back to what he was in the past but I seriously doubt that he will. his body is probably quite worn out and he can't produce the speed and spin that he used to Your previous comment is 'spot on' in my book ....

 

[Mays-Fan]

Yeah, you are correct about using 'one's' definition of horrible. If I look at Timmy as just any other pitcher he's Ok. Not terrific and not a complete mess either. He'll get the job done 50% of the time. But if I look at Timmy as a 23M a year 2 time CY winner ... he's horrible ... at least from an investment perspective. Can't blame the player. Things happen. Nobody will ever be sure what's happened to timmy these past few years. Just doesn't appear to be the same pitcher. It's possible that he finds ghis way back to what he was in the past but I seriously doubt that he will. his body is probably quite worn out and he can't produce the speed and spin that he used to Your previous comment is 'spot on' in my book ....

Completely agree. If we are going to move him to the bullpen, which I think is inevitable, we should do it sooner rather than later. We saw what he could do in that role against elite lineups in the playoffs last year.

My fear is that he knows that doing so will drastically cut his value, at least his ceiling, as a potential free agent for 2014. As such, he may resist. But declining as a starter ain't helping his value either.

 

[msgkings322]

Completely agree. If we are going to move him to the bullpen, which I think is inevitable, we should do it sooner rather than later. We saw what he could do in that role against elite lineups in the playoffs last year.

My fear is that he knows that doing so will drastically cut his value, at least his ceiling, as a potential free agent for 2014. As such, he may resist. But declining as a starter ain't helping his value either.

His value? The other 29 teams have TVs and the internet, they know what's up with him. Tim's a grown man, and if he and his dad and his agent want to be stubborn about it, it's a free country. Good luck in Seattle making $24/2 to sport a 5.00 ERA pitching 5 innings a game.

And to be fair, if he did agree to go to the pen all he'd likely get from us is like $18/3 so who can begrudge the guy for letting some other team make a mistake?

 

[tzill]

Gotta be until Vogelsong comes back, or near the trading deadline, whichever comes first. We don't really have any other choices.

That's my point. How long til we get Nolasco? B/c timmy is about done as a starter for the Giants.

 

[tzill]

Look at this guy, trolling his own site.

Xrays negative, finger wrapped but not in a splint, out tomorrow for sure after that unknown

I know, right? He just can't leave this board alone. The rest of this site is full of Disneyeque blather and trollisitude, but he's got to fuck with us.

 

[SF11704]

His value? The other 29 teams have TVs and the internet, they know what's up with him. Tim's a grown man, and if he and his dad and his agent want to be stubborn about it, it's a free country. Good luck in Seattle making $24/2 to sport a 5.00 ERA pitching 5 innings a game.

And to be fair, if he did agree to go to the pen all he'd likely get from us is like $18/3 so who can begrudge the guy for letting some other team make a mistake?

While a I agree with this 100% I also think it's more complicated than it appears. I'm sure that Timmy is surrounded by a team of financial agents and whatever else he has avauilable to him in an effort to guide him (lead actually) in his decision. My guess is that they are playing the CY card and telling him that teams will 'gamble' that he can and will return to form. As a fan with limited knowledge about things like that ... I just don't see it happening. Maybe another team's ownership sees it differently. In FA I can see him getting ONE CYish type of an offer that covers ONE year. This will be his final chance to redeem his past stature. I just don't see it happening. I then think he starts dealing with numbers exactly as MSG has spelled out or maybe even a touch lower. I would also think that his willingness to go to the pen will be heavily influenced by his advisors. Can you imagine what his worth would be if he faultered in that role as well. Even as a Giant fan I was was hoping that he would bring last year's 'pen experience' back into in role as a starter. Never quite worked out that well ....

 

[msgkings322]

That's my point. How long til we get Nolasco? B/c timmy is about done as a starter for the Giants.

Probably not until mid to late July, why would any team with an asset to shop sell now when they can get a bidding war going then?

And how are you so sure it's Nolasco? I'm sure he's one of the guys Sabean is looking at, but he must also be looking at others like Johnson, Peavy, Norris, etc.

And the fact still remains, Timmy replaced or not, if Cain and Bum can't get back to reliably winning 60% of their starts, we're sunk. Too many holes in the ship to cover up if that's the case. There's a reason repeating as champs is damn hard. I have a hard time seeing how any team in the NL is going to beat the Cardinals.

 

[msgkings322]

While a I agree with this 100% I also think it's more complicated than it appears. I'm sure that Timmy is surrounded by a team of financial agents and whatever else he has avauilable to him in an effort to guide him (lead actually) in his decision. My guess is that they are playing the CY card and telling him that teams will 'gamble' that he can and will return to form. As a fan with limited knowledge about things like that ... I just don't see it happening. Maybe another team's ownership sees it differently. In FA I can see him getting ONE CYish type of an offer that covers ONE year. This will be his final chance to redeem his past stature. I just don't see it happening. I then think he starts dealing with numbers exactly as MSG has spelled out or maybe even a touch lower. I would also think that his willingness to go to the pen will be heavily influenced by his advisors. Can you imagine what his worth would be if he faultered in that role as well. Even as a Giant fan I was was hoping that he would bring last year's 'pen experience' back into in role as a starter. Never quite worked out that well ....

I don't either, with us. But one or two of the other 29 teams will definitely take that gamble and he's probably adios. Not that it's a surprise to this board, we basically spelled it out that way in the offseason: see if Timmy can get it back, then we'll know what happens. Well, it doesn't look like he's getting it back, so what happens is bye bye Tim.

I'll miss the guy, was always one of my favorites, will root for him and wish him well. But it is what it is.

 

[SFGRTB]

So we don't hit the Panik button just yet?

(Sorry, it couldn't be helped)

 

[SFGRTB]

You do have to wonder how much longer they'll keep him on the staff. You also have to wonder how much longer Timmah stays in the rotation...

Kontos still has options, so there's that. He could use some time in the minors to find himself again. Plus, we could use a shot in the arm like Hembree.

 

[tzill]

Probably not until mid to late July, why would any team with an asset to shop sell now when they can get a bidding war going then?

And how are you so sure it's Nolasco? I'm sure he's one of the guys Sabean is looking at, but he must also be looking at others like Johnson, Peavy, Norris, etc.

And the fact still remains, Timmy replaced or not, if Cain and Bum can't get back to reliably winning 60% of their starts, we're sunk. Too many holes in the ship to cover up if that's the case. There's a reason repeating as champs is damn hard. I have a hard time seeing how any team in the NL is going to beat the Cardinals.

I'm not sure it'll be Nolasco, but he's probably the best fit. SabeySabes stays away from injury guys like Johnson and Garza. Peavy has two years left on his contract, so he's less of a fit. Norris is a definite possibility, but the Stros are going to want a TON of prospects for him as he's cost controlled for another 3-4 years. Nolasco is in the last year of his contract, he's a #3 type pitcher, he's 30, and he won't cost a ton of prospects.

I'm less concerned about Bum and Horse, but your point is taken. I'm assuming they'll be fine top of the rotation guys (big IF, but that's the way I see it). Add in Nolasco, Zeets, and some combination of Tron/Gaudin/Surkamp and I think we've got enough to win the division. Our bully is solid, KCYa will be back. When healthy (another big IF) Oxy/Scoots/MVP/Herk/Panda/BB9/Shark/Stamos is solid as well.

The Cards are solid, but they haven't had their share of injuries either. We'll see how Miller et al hold up in September.

 

[tzill]

I don't either, with us. But one or two of the other 29 teams will definitely take that gamble and he's probably adios. Not that it's a surprise to this board, we basically spelled it out that way in the offseason: see if Timmy can get it back, then we'll know what happens. Well, it doesn't look like he's getting it back, so what happens is bye bye Tim.

I'll miss the guy, was always one of my favorites, will root for him and wish him well. But it is what it is.

This. Outstanding.

Nobody will EVER take away the CY years and the general Freakiness that WAS Timmah. However, much like BWeez, Ross the Boss, UUUU, and Rent it's time to move on.

Possible exception if he re-signs to the bullpen and grows his hair back out.

 

[msgkings322]

I'm not sure it'll be Nolasco, but he's probably the best fit. SabeySabes stays away from injury guys like Johnson and Garza. Peavy has two years left on his contract, so he's less of a fit. Norris is a definite possibility, but the Stros are going to want a TON of prospects for him as he's cost controlled for another 3-4 years. Nolasco is in the last year of his contract, he's a #3 type pitcher, he's 30, and he won't cost a ton of prospects.

I'm less concerned about Bum and Horse, but your point is taken. I'm assuming they'll be fine top of the rotation guys (big IF, but that's the way I see it). Add in Nolasco, Zeets, and some combination of Tron/Gaudin/Surkamp and I think we've got enough to win the division. Our bully is solid, KCYa will be back. When healthy (another big IF) Oxy/Scoots/MVP/Herk/Panda/BB9/Shark/Stamos is solid as well.

The Cards are solid, but they haven't had their share of injuries either. We'll see how Miller et al hold up in September.

Good points all, we're pretty much in agreement. I don't know why Sabean would necessarily avoid guys with another year on their deal like Peavy, since Timmy is all but gone next year.

 

[SFGRTB]

Some Scutaro news:


If you read the article, he's facing a decision. Play through the injury but risk permanent damage. Or heal up for a couple months.

 

[tzill]

You do have to wonder how much longer they'll keep him on the staff. You also have to wonder how much longer Timmah stays in the rotation...

Ahem...not that it was a difficult call, but...

AB: SENDING HIM DOWN FOR A HYSTERECTOMY...AND A JUNK AUGMENTATION. TIMMY, TAKE NOTE.

 

[SFGRTB]

This. Outstanding.

Nobody will EVER take away the CY years and the general Freakiness that WAS Timmah. However, much like BWeez, Ross the Boss, UUUU, and Rent it's time to move on.

Possible exception if he re-signs to the bullpen and grows his hair back out.

I personally would rather just have him ride off into the distance. I love the idea of Tim sticking around for the bullpen, I'm not so thrilled about it costing $10 million+ per year. There's enough arms in the minors to cover for that.

It's tough to cut losses like that, Timmeh will always be one of my all-time favorites. But sometimes you just have to move on.

 

[SFGRTB]

Good points all, we're pretty much in agreement. I don't know why Sabean would necessarily avoid guys with another year on their deal like Peavy, since Timmy is all but gone next year.

Agreed on this, I think rental-type guys would be a mistake. I don't want another Beltran (not that we'd be giving up another Wheeler).