4_9_E_R_S!!!!! ESPN Refugee BS Thread

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Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons' 2012 draft selections
Round Pick Position Player College
(2) 55 C Peter Konz Wisconsin
(3) 91 T Lamar Holmes Southern Mississippi
(5) 157 FB Bradie Ewing Wisconsin
(5) 164 DE Jonathan Massaquoi Troy
(6) 192 S Charles Mitchell Mississippi State
(7) 249 NT Travian Robertson South Carolina

Key FA additions: CB Asante Samuel, ILB Lofa Tatupu, G Vince Manuwai

Key FA losses: ILB Curtis Lofton, WR Eric Weems, FB Ovie Mughelli

Analysis: The Falcons were extremely proactive in keeping their own free agents this offseason, but except for the trade for Samuel, they really didn't add much to their squad. Samuel's playmaking abilities will be a welcome addition to the Falcons' secondary, as this defense wasn't strong against the pass last year. New defensive coordinator Mike Nolan will make changes and he is sure to use a lot of nickel defense even against base offensive personnel, which now works out well with the Falcons' top three corners. But there is likely to be a drop-off at middle linebacker, where Tatupu, or more likely Akeem Dent, will replace Lofton, who is now with the rival Saints. Sean Weatherspoon and Stephen Nicholas are so strong as coverage linebackers that it made sense to let Lofton walk. Weems is a great special teams contributor who will also be missed.

The Falcons didn't have a first-round pick, but they have to feel very fortunate that Konz was available with the 55th selection overall. He is exactly what this crumbling offensive line needs and should be an immediate starter at right guard, a really poor position for the Falcons in 2011. He should step right in as the line's leader at center when the 35-year-old Todd McClure retires. But outside of Konz, I don't project a draft pick that should make a big impact this season.

So in the end, not a lot has changed from the conclusion of the 2011 season to now for the Falcons. Continuity is a fantastic thing for a football team to have, but what have we seen from this team overall to suggest that it is on the cusp of greatness? Julio Jones could explode, but what other young player is ready to breakout? What truly is the Falcons' offensive identity? Can Samuel put this defense over the top? I tend to doubt it.

If you aren't moving forward in this league, you are moving backwards and I fear that is the case with the Falcons.

Grade: C


Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Packers' 2012 draft selections
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 28 DE Nick Perry USC
(2) 51 DT Jerel Worthy Michigan State
(2) 62 CB Casey Hayward Vanderbilt
(4) 132 DT Mike Daniels Iowa
(4) 133 S Jeron McMillian Maine
(5) 163 LB Terrell Manning North Carolina State
(7) 241 T Andrew Datko Florida State
(7) 243 QB B.J. Coleman Chattanooga

Key FA additions: C Jeff Saturday, DE Anthony Hargrove, DE Phillip Merling

Key FA losses: QB Matt Flynn, C Scott Wells, S Nick Collins, T Chad Clifton

Analysis: It's unfortunate that Green Bay couldn't parlay the development of Flynn into draft picks, but there was no reason to invest starting quarterback-caliber money in him at this point. His departure does leave a lot of question marks at the quarterback position behind Aaron Rodgers, although I do have a hunch that seventh-rounder Coleman turns into something in time. At center, trading Wells for Saturday is pretty much a lateral move for the present, but is a negative transaction when factoring in the players' age for down the line. Saturday does fit the Packers' zone blocking scheme very well and should be very adept and changing protections at the line of scrimmage.

The rest of free agency was very underwhelming for Green Bay, although it typically is for this franchise. The Packers would have loved to keep Collins and Clifton, but injuries and age made those decisions for them. It was blatantly obvious what the Packers were doing on draft day: trying to improve a horrid pass defense. Their first six selections were on the defensive side of the ball. Three things were needed for Green Bay's pass defense to improve.

First, the Packers needed an outside rush threat to complement Clay Matthews. They're hoping that is Perry, their Round 1 pick. Second, they needed an interior pass-rusher to pick up the slack that Cullen Jenkins left when he bolted for Philadelphia one year ago. The Packers hope that is Worthy, their second-round selection. Third, they just need better coverage players and a possible replacement for Collins -- which is why they took third-rounder Hayward and fourth-rounder McMillian. While I very much respect such a well-executed draft plan, that is an awful lot of faith to put into a draft class in their rookie seasons.

But even with that terrible 2011 pass defense, Green Bay went 15-1 in the regular season last year. With Rodgers under center, there's no reason that can't happen again. He's that good right now.

Grade: C


Detroit Lions

Detroit Lions' 2012 draft selections
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 23 T Riley Reiff Iowa
(2) 54 WR Ryan Broyles Oklahoma
(3) 85 CB Dwight Bentley Louisiana-Lafayette
(4) 125 LB Ronnell Lewis Oklahoma
(5) 138 LB Tahir Whitehead Temple
(5) 148 CB Chris Greenwood Albion
(6) 196 CB Jonte Green New Mexico State
(7) 223 LB Travis Lewis Oklahoma

Key FA additions: S Sean Jones, CB Jacob Lacey, WR Jarrett Dillard

Key FA losses: CB Eric Wright, QB Drew Stanton

Analysis: The Lions had a tumultuous offseason away from the gridiron, with their players encountering numerous run-ins with the law. But Detroit has a ton to build on with one of the best young nucleuses in the NFL. To get to the promise land, that young nucleus will need to take another collective step forward, as the Lions did very little to improve their roster with veteran free-agent additions. The Lions' secondary, especially at cornerback, is a massive problem spot. While I thought that Wright was overrated and not worth what Tampa Bay paid for him, he will be missed. Because Detroit is so light on the back end, Jones and Lacey should see playing time. And the Lions were fortunate to land Dwight Bentley in the third round. It isn't inconceivable that Bentley quickly ascends to the top of Detroit's cornerback depth chart. The Lions also used fifth- and sixth-round picks on the position. Greenwood is talented guy that could develop.

But the top of Detroit's draft was dedicated to improving an already lethal offense. Much like the Colts did when they had Peyton Manning, the Lions are using early draft picks on skill position players for Stafford to distribute the ball to -- like Broyles. When Reiff was available with the 23rd selection in the first round, the Lions really had no choice to snatch him up to help keep Stafford upright and improve a floundering rushing attack. Reiff will play somewhere from Week 1 -- at either tackle spot or at guard.

The Lions didn't make great strides forward this offseason, but it sure looks like they are set up to play in a ton of very high-scoring games. They will be an extremely fun offense to watch.

Grade: C-

 

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New Orleans Saints

New Orleans Saints' 2012 draft selections
Round Pick Position Player College
(3) 90 DT Akiem Hicks Regina, Can.
(4) 122 WR Nick Toon Wisconsin
(5) 162 S Corey White Samford
(6) 179 G Andrew Tiller Syracuse
(7) 234 T Marcel Jones Nebraska

Key FA additions: DT Brodrick Bunkley, ILB Curtis Lofton, ILB David Hawthorne, G Ben Grubbs, OLB Chris Chamberlain, QB Luke McCown, DT Remi Ayodele

Key FA losses: G Carl Nicks, CB Tracy Porter, WR Robert Meachem, DT Shaun Rogers, OLB Jo-Lonn Dunbar

Analysis: Drew Brees' contract situation remains unsettled, which is somewhat amazing considering how turbulent the Saints' offseason has been. You would think New Orleans would need its leader and face of the franchise to be heavily involved in everything going on with the team now. However, I'm operating under the assumption that Brees will be his normal self -- and have his contract situation resolved -- when the season begins.

There has been a lot of turnover on the Saints' roster. Gone are Nicks and Meachem and Porter. Grubbs is an adequate replacement for Nicks, but isn't one of the elite guards in the league like Nicks is. Meachem, a former first-round pick, was inconsistent with the Saints, but he does have deep ball ability to go along with size and strength. Fourth-rounder Toon was nice value at that point of the draft, and is NFL-ready after being raised around the game, but he is more in the mold of Marques Colston than Meachem. Add in the fact that Sean Payton won't be coaching and I doubt New Orleans' offensive production matches the amazing bar it set a year ago.

On defense, Porter is a significant loss, but the D should be improved to some degree -- although it was the pass defense that really struggled last season. The Saints' secondary will be called upon to play less man coverage with Gregg Williams out of the picture. Linebacker was a real trouble spot in 2011, so the Saints were wise to sign two new starters in Lofton and Hawthorne. But my favorite addition to New Orleans' defense is Bunkley, a fantastic run-stuffing interior presence. Ayodele is in a similar mold to Bunkley, but is a far lesser player, while the Saints' first draft pick, Hicks, is a talented project at this position. With Sedrick Ellis still in the equation as well, New Orleans' defensive tackles should now be a strength.

These are tumultuous times in the Big Easy, but this is also a team that has shown the ability to respond to difficult circumstances very favorably in the past. Don't count the Saints out just yet.

Grade: C-

 

[imac_21]

If Hernandez had been successful, that, with the way we use Davis (and the way the Pats use Hernandez) would have been interesting and would have come with noticeable side effects.

I don't think Davis splits out wide enough. I'm not looking this up, but I believe I've read in the past that the position for a franchise player is determined by the position he lines up at for most of his snaps (I imagine it was related to a DE/OLB). I believe Davis takes most of his snaps lined up with a hand in the dirt tight to the line. It's an advantage, I suppose, of the style of offense we run.

Reading the article about Hernandez, it sounds like they may have to designate "slot receiver" as a position for franchise tags, as well as nickel back, with the direction the game is going. It won't happen, but it would be interesting to investigate. What is the average salary of the top 5 players who line up in the slot for more snaps than anywhere else? What about nickel backs?

 

[Bemular]

I don't think Davis splits out wide enough. I'm not looking this up, but I believe I've read in the past that the position for a franchise player is determined by the position he lines up at for most of his snaps (I imagine it was related to a DE/OLB). I believe Davis takes most of his snaps lined up with a hand in the dirt tight to the line. It's an advantage, I suppose, of the style of offense we run.

Reading the article about Hernandez, it sounds like they may have to designate "slot receiver" as a position for franchise tags, as well as nickel back, with the direction the game is going. It won't happen, but it would be interesting to investigate. What is the average salary of the top 5 players who line up in the slot for more snaps than anywhere else? What about nickel backs?

If I were a betting man, I would bet that you are probably right about Davis - to this point. However, I wonder how we will use him this year. - I would like to know (and the information is out there) just how often Davis did line-up in a three-point.

I completely agree it would be interesting to investigate those details. Until this article came out I had never even considered that a TE could/would seek arbitration for a WR's salary based on how often he lined up in a two-point, so I thought the whole thing was rather interesting.

 

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49ers' Alex Smith on Peyton Manning sweepstakes: 'It was a little awkward' - San Jose Mercury News

 

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Drew Brees of New Orleans Saints to skip training camp without contract, sources say - ESPN

 

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Ron Jaworski: Aaron Rodgers is NFL's No. 1 quarterback - NFL.com

 

[imac_21]

If I were a betting man, I would bet that you are probably right about Davis - to this point. However, I wonder how we will use him this year. - I would like to know (and the information is out there) just how often Davis did line-up in a three-point.

I completely agree it would be interesting to investigate those details. Until this article came out I had never even considered that a TE could/would seek arbitration for a WR's salary based on how often he lined up in a two-point, so I thought the whole thing was rather interesting.

I don't expect to see Davis lining up in the slot more in the future. I would imagine we will see him in tight more often. We upgraded, at least in theory, at WR. I think we could see a lot of Crabtree in the slot this year (I think he plays SE in the base package and moves into the slot in 3 WR with Manningham at SE. Moss will be at flanker).

I could see Davis lining up at TE and likely shifting to the slot pre-snap.

With respect to the franchise tags, it would be interesting to see a team counter a TE that is moved around a lot with a FB tender if he spends a lot of time in the backfield.

Sorry for the horrible structure of that sentence.

 

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San Francisco 49ers – Niner Insider Blog – SFGate.com Randy Moss’ trip around the NFL, installment 1

 

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Report -- New Orleans Saints, Drew Brees more than $10 million apart in guaranteed money - ESPN

 

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Photo by jimrome • Instagram

 

[MHSL82]

Put this here because it's not really relevant to anything but it's niner-related. Patrick Willis, for a day, went around helping people who posted requests, including babysitting Alex Smith's kid, to #patrickpower on twitter. Video link below.

VIDEO: Patrick Power! (Helping the Community)

 

[Bemular]

I don't expect to see Davis lining up in the slot more in the future. I would imagine we will see him in tight more often. We upgraded, at least in theory, at WR. I think we could see a lot of Crabtree in the slot this year (I think he plays SE in the base package and moves into the slot in 3 WR with Manningham at SE. Moss will be at flanker).

I could see Davis lining up at TE and likely shifting to the slot pre-snap.

With respect to the franchise tags, it would be interesting to see a team counter a TE that is moved around a lot with a FB tender if he spends a lot of time in the backfield.

Sorry for the horrible structure of that sentence.

I reviewed some of Davis's charts from last year and you're right. So, unless he is officially "reassigned" he'll not be arbitrating for WR cash anytime soon.

As far as putting Crabtree at the "X" while in base formations - I'm not crazy about the idea but in certain situations it worked toward the end of last year. In most (base formation) alignments I would put Williams at the "X" or Davis or even Ginn, or, maybe switch assignments between Moss & Crabtree.

That said, we didn't run too many plays in base last year and even fewer times did we target the "X" while in those formations. So for all intents & purposes it's nearly a moot point.

As to your last sentence - that was funny. Talk about a conversation stopper. The floor is yours Mr. Hernandez - "Never mind".

 

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Welcoming myself back, reviewing my 2011 draft analysis & more - ************.com

 

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Forte deal aftermath
1:46PM ET
Matt Forte | Bears

UPDATE: Our first report of the guaranteed portion of Forte's deal is in: it's around $18 million, according to Sean Jensen of the Chicago Sun-Times. Not a bad payday by any standard, but less in guarantees than some of the other recently extended RBs around the league.

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The deal is done. According to ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter, Forte gets a four-year deal worth around $8 million per season. The guaranteed portion, of course, will be the interesting information; Arian Foster and LeSean McCoy got around $21 million guaranteed, while Chris Johnson got $30 million and Adrian Peterson got $36 million.

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Over the weekend, a report emerged that the Chicago Bears and franchise-tagged RB Matt Forte were were "extremely close" to a multi-year contract to replace the one-year franchise tender. While our internal reporters would not confirm the imminence of such a pact, there was some thought that the two sides were making significant progress towards such an agreement.

Appearing on "SportsCenter" on Monday, ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter was asked for his thoughts on the chances of a contract for Forte, and he responded, "I think they will get a deal done by that deadline. The two sides have made progress, they've gotten closer to a deal, they're not that far off from having it happen."

Of course, there's a chance they won't reach an agreement by the deadline. "If it doesn't get done, we don't know exactly what that means as we saw by Matt Forte's answer on Friday," Schefter noted, referring to an awkward silence when Schefter asked the RB whether he'd show up to training camp.

The clock is ticking.

- Tim Kavanagh​

 

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NFL's top 25 prospects
Doug Baldwin, Pernell McPhee, Jeremy Kerley among top prospects
Originally Published: July 17, 2012
By Aaron Schatz | Football Outsiders

Martez Wilson, Doug Baldwin and Everson Griffen are all U-25 players ready to break out.

Everybody loves a first-round pick. First-round picks are more likely to become NFL stars than players chosen in the second round, second-round picks are more likely to become NFL stars than players chosen in the third round and so on. However, those first-round stars aren't enough to build a championship team. The best teams know how to mine for additional talent, both when choosing in the late rounds of the draft and when dialing up undrafted free agents when the draft is over. This kind of talent collection takes quality scouting, combined with an understanding of how to fit players with limitations into your team's offensive and defensive schemes.

It also takes a little bit of luck, like stumbling upon an undrafted wide receiver with so much skill at running option routes that he can gain 1,500 yards in his first full season. Find yourself a Victor Cruz, and you could end the season holding up the Lombardi Trophy, just like Giants general manager Jerry Reese. It doesn't hurt that Reese also found useful players in Round 6 (Greg Jones) and Round 7 (Ahmad Bradshaw), to go with quality undrafted free agents like Jake Ballard, Mark Herzlich and Cruz.

Each year, Football Outsiders looks for similar hidden talents who haven't yet made their impact on the league with our top 25 prospects list. For the uninitiated, our top prospects list isn't like the prospect lists you read about in the world of baseball. Because the top prospects in college football are stars on national television before they get taken in the first round of the NFL draft, there's not much utility in listing them here. Everyone knows Andrew Luck is a top prospect who is likely to succeed in the NFL.

Instead, we use a combination of statistics, measurables, context and expected role to compile a list of under-the-radar players whom we expect to make an impact in the NFL, both in 2012 and beyond.

We limit the pool to players who fit the following criteria:

• Drafted in the third round or later, or signed as an undrafted free agent
• Entered the NFL between 2009 and 2011
• Fewer than five career games started
• Still on their initial contract
• Age 26 or younger in 2012

That last item is new for this season, and is meant to ensure that we list players who could play a significant role in the NFL over the next few years, not just in 2012. To give two examples, running backs Bernard Scott and Isaac Redman are definitely important to their teams' plans this season. But, as each of them is already 28, they aren't really promising players for the long term. Other players who would have made the list if not for the age limit include Jacksonville running back Rashad Jennings, Detroit defensive end Willie Young and Baltimore tight end Dennis Pitta.

In the past, our No. 1 prospects have included wideouts Miles Austin (2009) and Mike Wallace (2010). However, this isn't strictly a fantasy football list; in fact, last year it was the defensive players who made the biggest impact. DT Geno Atkins (sixth) made the Pro Bowl; CB Lardarius Webb (ninth) started 15 games and had 22 passes defensed, earning a huge contract from Baltimore in the offseason; S Morgan Burnett (second) and LB Erik Walden (16th) started most of the year for a team that nearly went undefeated (although Walden will likely lose his starting job to rookie Nick Perry in 2012). Even one of last year's honorable mention defenders, Seattle S Kam Chancellor, made the Pro Bowl as an injury replacement.

You'll see a number of references to Football Outsiders stats on our list, in particular DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), which takes every play and compares its success to the NFL average based on situation and opponent. You can read more about that and other FO stats on this page.

 

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Here are Football Outsiders' top 25 prospects:​

1. Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks
It feels like cheating to include Baldwin on our top prospects list; after all, this is the guy who led Seattle receivers in receptions, yards and touchdowns. He was the first player since the AFL-NFL merger to lead his team in receiving yards as an undrafted rookie. Just for good measure, Baldwin also had 14.2 percent DVOA while every other Seattle receiver with at least 10 targets was below zero. Nevertheless, Baldwin only started one game last year, because he was used strictly as a slot receiver. Out of Baldwin's 86 targets, only two came with just two wide receivers in the formation -- and on one of those plays, Baldwin was actually in the backfield, so the personnel was still three wide receivers. Baldwin is tough going for passes over the middle despite his small size (5-foot-10, 190 pounds). He's good at running precise routes and finding soft spots in zones. The next test is working on the perimeter from two-receiver sets against starting corners instead of nickelbacks.

2. Martez Wilson, DE-LB, New Orleans Saints
Wilson played sparingly in 2011. He produced just one major highlight, sacking Cam Newton on a blitz up the middle for a 16-yard loss. The old regime used Wilson as a situational blitz-package player, when they used him at all. Steve Spagnuolo has moved Wilson from linebacker to defensive end, a more natural position for a player with a Jevon Kearse-meets-Jason Pierre-Paul body type. Wilson, a third-round pick in 2011, played middle linebacker at Illinois, a sign that college and pro coaches have been baffled about where to put a 6-foot-4, 250-pounder with 4.4-range 40-times, 36-inch arms and an over 10-foot standing broad jump. If any coach knows how to get the most out of that kind of player, it's Spagnuolo.

3. Everson Griffen, DE-LB, Minnesota Vikings
Once thought to be a second- or even first-round talent, Griffen ended up falling to Minnesota in the fourth round of the 2010 draft due to worries about his off-field decorum more than his raw technique. The former still may be a problem (he was arrested for public intoxication in January 2011) but the latter is becoming more polished. That means it may finally be time for Griffen's breakout. As a part-time pass-rusher in 2011, Griffen had four sacks, nine hurries, three quarterback hits and two forced fumbles. He's supremely talented, with an explosive burst off the edge and good inside quickness. He provides coverage almost as readily as pass-rushing prowess, which is very important for a team that likes to drop defensive ends into coverage as often as Minnesota does. The Vikings are trying to figure out ways to get Griffen on the field more often, and may use him as a linebacker in some packages next season.

4. Cortez Allen, CB, Pittsburgh Steelers
When the Steelers drafted Allen in the fourth round out of The Citadel, he was considered by many to be a long-term project at corner. The Steelers had success picking Ike Taylor in the fourth round in similar circumstances. As a rookie, it was Allen who saw playing time in dime packages while third-round cornerback Curtis Brown stuck to special teams. In the Steelers' Week 8 win over the Patriots, Pittsburgh used Allen regularly to cover New England's athletic tight ends. Allen has long limbs, a very smooth backpedal and can play physical. He should move up to the nickel back role this year, but don't be surprised if he beats out Keenan Lewis for a starting CB job in training camp.

5. Stevan Ridley, RB, New England Patriots
Ridley has good lower-body control and balance with a powerful stride, although he's not the fastest back out there. (He has a speed score of 95.4, where 100 is generally average). The Pats really started to use him in the last five weeks of the regular season, when he had 5.2 yards per carry and a 57 percent success rate. He needs work on blocking and receiving, which limits his ability to play on third downs but also makes him a nice complement to Shane Vereen and Danny Woodhead. Of course, he also needs work on his hands after fumbling in back-to-back games near the end of his rookie season, which put him on the bench for most of the playoffs. But he didn't have fumble problems at LSU, and there's a good chance that the back-to-back fumbles were just random chance, not evidence of a real issue.

 

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6. Pernell McPhee, DE, Baltimore Ravens
As a rookie in 2011, McPhee took advantage of offenses worrying about Terrell Suggs to notch six sacks as a situational pass-rusher. McPhee primarily came on the field in clear passing situations, particularly on third downs, and really came alive in the second half of the year. Although he had three sacks through Week 9 and his other three sacks afterwards, 15 of his 16.5 regular-season hurries came in Baltimore's final eight games. McPhee is all about motor, and his technique is still developing. He came out of Mississippi State as a better athlete than football player. McPhee had minor arthroscopic surgery this offseason but should be healthy in time for training camp, where he will battle Arthur Jones for the starting spot at defensive end vacated by Cory Redding. It will be interesting to see how McPhee fits as a 5-technique in the Ravens' base defense, because he's much more suited to the more conventional way the Ravens use their defensive ends in nickel packages.

7. Allen Bailey, DE, Kansas City Chiefs
Bailey, a third-round rookie, made only eight plays last year, but five of them were defeats. He's a two-time All-ACC player who twice led the Miami Hurricanes in sacks, a versatile talent who was an outside linebacker as a freshman, then later started at both defensive end and tackle. The pessimistic term for this, of course, would be "tweener," as he's too slow to play defensive end in a 4-3, and not quite big enough to be an NFL defensive tackle. Romeo Crennel has a pretty good history with "tweeners" like Bailey who have smarts and a nonstop motor. The Chiefs occasionally used him last year as a situational pass-rusher on passing downs. This year, they'll likely use him a lot more often, and it isn't far-fetched to think he could earn a starting job in 2013.

8. James Brewer, OT, New York Giants
The Super Bowl champs were perfectly happy to let Kareem McKenzie leave in free agency this offseason because they're fairly confident that Brewer can take over the right tackle spot in his sophomore year. (If he fails in training camp, there is a backup plan: Kevin Boothe at left guard with David Diehl at right tackle.) Brewer has long arms and good balance with a strong lower base. Unfortunately, he also has a history of knee and ankle injuries, which helped knock him down to the fourth round of last year's draft.

9. Akeem Dent, LB, Atlanta Falcons
Dent was trapped behind Curtis Lofton last season, but he was the Falcons' top special teams player. The 2011 third-round pick recorded 19 special-teams tackles and 16 return stops (plays which end a return short of what our special teams rating system considers league average), tying Heath Farwell of the Seahawks for the league lead. Special teams coach Keith Armstrong often singled Dent out as the hardest worker on his units. Dent worked behind Lofa Tatupu at middle linebacker during minicamps, but Tatupu has had numerous knee injuries and concussions, and is coming off what amounts to a year of family leave. Dent could develop into a star if he gets his chance.

10. DeMarcus Van Dyke, CB, Oakland Raiders
Van Dyke barely makes the list; he was a third-round pick, and started four games as a rookie. Our game charting project shows him with only 4.6 adjusted yards per pass and a success rate of 67 percent. Those numbers are among the league's best, but come with the small sample size caveat. In the past, small sample size charting numbers have picked out some soon-to-breakout stars (Cortland Finnegan) but also some busts. Van Dyke has the athletic talent to be a starting corner if he can work on his technique and discipline. At Miami, he was more potential than performance, and even got benched halfway through his senior season because he was struggling on the field. The Raiders signed free agents Ron Bartell and Shawntae Spencer to be their starting cornerbacks, but Van Dyke could grab one of those jobs if he shows enough in training camp.

 

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11. Evan Royster, RB, Washington Redskins
Royster, a sixth-rounder from Penn State, put up the best rushing DVOA ever by a running back with at least 40 carries. Similar small-sample size studs of the past didn't necessarily develop into star backs. However, they did generally develop into useful part-time players, and Mike Shanahan certainly does have a history of getting the best out of his running backs. Royster also brings blocking skills and good hands as a receiver to the table.

12. Brice McCain, CB, Houston Texans
Putting together this list, we were stuck with a bit of a quandary when it came to a number of talented young nickelbacks. More and more each year, nickelback has essentially become a "starting" position. Players may not get more than one or two "games started" in the stat book, but they play almost as many snaps as the starting cornerbacks. Some teams even move their starters inside to that nickel position, so the "backup" is actually an outside cornerback. But while these nickelbacks have already had a big impact on their teams, many of them are also limited. Covering the slot is what they do best; good numbers as a nickelback don't necessarily forecast a player who would be successful as a starting corner on the outside.

In the end, we mostly tried to keep our Top 25 Prospects list to cornerbacks who we feel have the biggest chance to develop into every-down starters who can play both slot and outside. But we did make this one exception, because McCain's numbers last season were so phenomenal. McCain actually ended up first in success rate among all corners with at least 40 targets (he's listed as fifth in the Houston chapter of "Football Outsiders Almanac 2012" because of adjustments for the quality of the receivers he covered). He also finished 11th with just 5.7 adjusted yards per pass allowed. In retrospect, it's almost incredible that the Texans even bothered to try McCain on the outside in 2010. Freed from the oppressive regime of Frank Bush, McCain's reading and recognition skills were much better utilized, and he even made a couple of nice plays off the blitz in 2011. He's never going to be a shutdown outside corner, but you don't need to be one to be important in today's NFL.

13. Jeremy Kerley, WR, New York Jets
Ignore the way the Jets messed around with Kerley in the Wildcat last year. He's really a Wes Welker type: a small, quick, slot receiver who's elusive enough to ring up yards after the catch. Right now he's ticketed to be the third receiver when the Jets go three-wide, but considering how raw rookie Stephen Hill is, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Kerley as a starter who then moves inside to the slot when the Jets go three-wide. He's also likely to run all kinds of fun reverses and end-arounds when the Jets go to their Tebow package of wackiness. Incidentally, Kerley had 17 of his 29 catches and 226 of his 314 yards against AFC East opponents. This is good because the Jets have to play those teams each twice; it's bad because they weren't particularly hard defenses to put up yards against.

14. O'Brien Schofield, LB, Arizona Cardinals
Schofield had 12 sacks as a senior defensive end at Wisconsin, but fell down draft boards when he tore his ACL at the Senior Bowl. The Cardinals snatched him in the fourth round and it was a perfect match; Schofield wasn't going to make it as a defensive end in the pros at just 240 pounds, but he has the ideal body type for a 3-4 outside linebacker. Schofield has 6.5 sacks in a year and a half of part-time play. (He didn't take the field as a rookie until Week 8 because of the ACL recovery.) He also led the Cardinals with 12 tackles on special teams last year. Although the Cardinals did decide to re-sign veteran Clark Haggans, the plan is for Schofield to take his spot as the starting strongside linebacker with Haggans as the backup.

15. Karl Klug, DT, Tennessee Titans
We're not going to pretend that Klug, a 2011 fifth-round pick out of Iowa, isn't limited as a player. He's probably too undersized (275 pounds) to become an every-down defensive tackle in the NFL. And admittedly, his rookie total of seven sacks looks like a bit of a fluke, since it was only accompanied by three hits and three hurries. Looking through his sacks, several were garbage sacks after the ends did the real work or the quarterback held the ball too long. However, he also made a couple of great plays on stunts, and sometimes he just ran through guards both unknown (Seth Olsen) and famous (Carl Nicks). Plus, there are the plays you won't find in his sack total, like four passes batted away at the line, or the tackles of Donald Brown and Jason Snelling that forced no gain on second-and-1. Klug has great hands, leverage and a nice repertoire of rush moves, and he should be bringing the pain on Andrew Luck for the next few years.

 

[BINGO]

16. Ryan Mallett, QB, Patriots
Even though Mallett didn't step on the field during the regular season, everything that scouts said about him a year ago is still true. He's still a tall, classic pocket passer with elite arm strength who can drop the deep ball in with a beautiful touch pass. He also can't throw well on the run and will take a ton of sacks. He's had a year under the tutelage of Bill O'Brien and Tom Brady, and hopefully they helped him work on improving his decision-making skills, both on and off the field. Mallett is still likely to earn a job as an NFL starter someday, and it's still likely to be somewhere other than New England.

17. Buster Skrine, CB, Cleveland Browns
The fifth-round rookie out of Tennessee-Chattanooga earned more playing time as season went along, eventually snagging his first NFL interception in Week 15. Our charting numbers have him with 5.7 adjusted yards per pass on 14 targets. He's a smaller guy (5-10), but quickly got a reputation around the Browns for his aggressive nature. Skrine can be physical in press and strong in run support. He's got a good backpedal but lacks top-end straight speed. If he develops a bit more, he may replace Sheldon Brown in the starting lineup as early as next season.

18. Cam Thomas, DT, San Diego Chargers
Thomas was generally hailed as a steal when the Chargers snagged him in the fifth round of the 2010 draft, but he played in just six games as a rookie and only had seven tackles (although two of those were sacks). Last year, we saw a bit more of what Thomas can do, with four sacks, three quarterback hits and 6.5 hurries, plus an 87 percent stop rate on run tackles. He has rare natural strength and can both get to the quarterback in a one-gap and stuff up the run in a two-gap. It's unlikely Thomas will take a starting job away from Antonio Garay, but he's a useful piece when San Diego goes to four linemen (which they did on nearly 20 percent of snaps last year).

19. Marcus Cannon, OL, Patriots
Cannon was a flat-out steal for the Patriots. He's a huge guy with quick feet, and draftniks expected him to go as early as the second round before he was diagnosed with non-Hodgkins lymphoma before the draft. The Pats were perfectly happy to take him in the fifth round and wait for him to complete chemotherapy, and by Week 11 he was getting snaps in a regular-season game. Cannon was a right tackle at TCU and could spell Sebastian Vollmer in a pinch if necessary, but he's much better suited for guard in the pros because he has trouble with bull rushers. He will likely replace Brian Waters at right guard whenever Waters decides he feels like retiring.

20. Victor Butler, LB, Dallas Cowboys
Butler was a fourth-round pick out of Oregon State in 2009. He's been hiding under the surface in Dallas, with only one game started in three years but eight total sacks as a backup linebacker. His playing time has gone up a little bit each year, and in 2011 Butler had three sacks, 10 hurries and four quarterback hits. He also got a stop on all 10 of his run tackles. Rob Ryan wants to get a heavy pass rush from his outside linebackers, and that's what Butler brings to the table. Actually, his biggest task going forward may be gaining experience doing other things, since the outside linebackers in Dallas (especially the ones who are not DeMarcus Ware) do drop into coverage sometimes. Anthony Spencer will be playing on the franchise tag this year, so perhaps Butler will get more playing time to test if he's ready to start in 2013.