BINGO
New Member
- 10,815
- 0
- 0
- Joined
- Aug 3, 2011
- Hoopla Cash
- $ 1,000.00
- Fav. Team #1
Tony Romo is a Top-5 NFL QB
The metrics point to an elite QB; will that shift the way Dallas plays?
Originally Published: May 14, 2012
By K.C. Joyner | ESPN Insider
Tony Romo had four fourth-quarter game-winning drives in the 2011 season.
When a quarterback makes the jump to claim a spot among the top five players at that position, the move is usually accompanied by a high-profile achievement like winning a Super Bowl or breaking a statistical record.
That hasn't been the case for Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo. He has only one career playoff win to his credit, hasn't topped the 40-touchdown or 4,500-passing-yard marks and has never been named to an All-Pro team.
The lack of these achievements has held back the general perception of where Romo rates in the NFL passing hierarchy, but the truth of the matter is the evidence shows that he is now one of the top five quarterbacks in the league.
Superior route-depth metrics
It starts with his 2011 route-depth metrics:
Tony Romo's 2011 stats
Depth Level Cmp Att Cmp Yds TD Int Pen Att Pen Yds Total Att Total Yds YPA
Short (1-10 yds) 260 340 2,188 12 3 4 8 344 2,196 6.4
Medium (11-19 yds) 58 93 930 8 5 3 43 96 973 10.1
Deep (20-29 yds) 19 35 635 6 1 1 25 36 660 18.3
Bomb (30+ yds) 9 19 441 5 0 1 -10 20 431 21.6
Other (tipped passes, throwaways, etc.) 0 35 -10 0 1 2 7 37 -3 -0.1
Vertical (11+ yds) 86 147 2,006 19 6 5 58 152 2,064 13.6
Stretch vertical (20+ yds) 28 54 1,076 11 1 2 15 56 1,091 19.5
Overall total 346 522 4,184 31 10 11 73 533 4,257 8.0
Romo was tied for fifth in overall yards per attempt (YPA) among quarterbacks with 500 or more passing attempts. He also ranked second in the league in deep YPA, third in bomb YPA, third in vertical YPA and second in stretch vertical YPA.
It's not a total surprise that Romo is such a great thrower down the field, but it's one of those indicators where he's in the upper echelon, and it's an area NFL quarterbacks are measured on by evaluators. And it looks even better next to another key stat ...
Low bad decision rate (BDR)
The route-depth metrics highlight Romo's overall productivity, but what makes those achievements even more impressive is that he was able to post them while concurrently racking up a very low bad decision rate (BDR).
BDR is a metric that gauges how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads either to a turnover or a near turnover, like a dropped interception or fumble that is recovered by the offense.
The nine-year track record of this metric shows that a 2 percent or lower BDR is an above-average mark for a dink-and-dunk passer, while gunslinger quarterbacks can take pride in a BDR under 3 percent.
Romo has earned a reputation as a gunslinger, in part because of games like last year's Week 4 contest against the Detroit Lions, in which his many errors were instrumental in helping the Lions come back from a 27-3 third-quarter deficit to win the game 34-30.
As poor as that performance was, Romo still posted a 1.8 percent BDR for the season. That total ranked fifth-best among qualifying quarterbacks (minimum 175 attempts) and is doubly notable because it's quite rare for a risk-taking quarterback to post a BDR under 2 percent.
High Total QBR
Last season, Romo ranked fourth in the league in ESPN's Total QBR metric with a 70.1 rating, behind only Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady. This system is incredibly difficult to excel in because it accounts for a wide variety of factors and is thus relatively immune to the statistical vagaries that can sometimes throw off other metric measurements.
A long history of top-level statistical performance
Romo isn't just a one-year metric wonder. According to pro-football-reference.com, Romo is tied for fifth in NFL history in career yards per pass attempt. He also ranks tied for second in career adjusted yards per pass attempt, second in career adjusted net yards per pass attempt, sixth in career completion percentage and is the leader in net career yards per pass attempt. Romo ranks seventh in the league in quarterback wins since 2006, despite missing 13 games in that time, and had four fourth-quarter winning drives wins last season -- giving him 14 for his career.
Ability to raise the level of play of those around him
All of those numbers are building blocks for Romo's top-5 case, but the largest one may be how he displayed an elite ability to raise the level of play of those around him last season.
To illustrate this, note that Romo threw 171 passes to Dez Bryant and Miles Austin. Those two racked up 1,520 yards on those targets, a total that equates to an 8.9 YPA.
Now contrast that to the numbers posted by the backup wide receivers Jesse Holley, Kevin Ogletree and Laurent Robinson. They compiled 1,220 yards on a combined 114 targets, totals that equate to a 10.7 YPA, or a mark nearly 2 yards higher than the YPA posted by Bryant and Austin. Few passers are able to achieve double-digit YPA productivity out of no-name backups, and these figures show Romo has proved he is capable of doing that.
Changing of the elite guard at the quarterback position
It's safe to say that Brady, Brees and Rodgers are the consensus top three quarterbacks (take your pick in which order).
After that, the rankings start to get cloudy. Eli Manning 's second Super Bowl win probably vaults him to a No. 4, but that happens with the condition that the younger Manning has struggled mightily with interceptions throughout his career. And every other potentially elite quarterback has some kind of question mark as well.
Last year, Philip Rivers had his worst season since 2007 and Ben Roethlisberger had his worst season since 2008. Matt Ryan still has big-time downfield passing woes, despite having two great wideouts (he ranked tied for 21st in vertical YPA and tied for 28th in stretch vertical YPA last season). The Baltimore Ravens win a lot of games with Joe Flacco under center, but it's often in spite of, rather than because of, the team's passing performance level. Michael Vick can't stay healthy, Jay Cutler still has horrible decision-making skills (he ranked next-to-last in BDR in 2011) and Peyton Manning has a brilliant track record that could put him at or near the top of any ranking at the position, but he has yet to prove conclusively that he is back to his pre-injury physical state.
No signs of letting up
The Cowboys' offense has the tools to be one of the best in the NFL in 2012. In addition to the aforementioned elite wideouts, Dallas possesses one of the best vertical tight ends in Jason Witten (ranked second in the league in vertical YPA among tight ends with 20 or more vertical targets).
That across-the-board passing prowess is nearly equaled by a Cowboys running game that ranked eighth in the league in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) category. (GBYPA measures rushing productivity on plays with good blocking.)
Combine those offensive elements with the makings of what could be a vastly improved defense and it means Dallas head coach Jason Garrett should be able to be even more aggressive in his play calling, a prospect that should cast fear into the hearts of every defensive coordinator in the NFL.
Given the factors listed above, Romo is not only a top-5 NFL quarterback now, but he should continue to be one this season and into the future.
The metrics point to an elite QB; will that shift the way Dallas plays?
Originally Published: May 14, 2012
By K.C. Joyner | ESPN Insider
Tony Romo had four fourth-quarter game-winning drives in the 2011 season.
When a quarterback makes the jump to claim a spot among the top five players at that position, the move is usually accompanied by a high-profile achievement like winning a Super Bowl or breaking a statistical record.
That hasn't been the case for Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo. He has only one career playoff win to his credit, hasn't topped the 40-touchdown or 4,500-passing-yard marks and has never been named to an All-Pro team.
The lack of these achievements has held back the general perception of where Romo rates in the NFL passing hierarchy, but the truth of the matter is the evidence shows that he is now one of the top five quarterbacks in the league.
Superior route-depth metrics
It starts with his 2011 route-depth metrics:
Tony Romo's 2011 stats
Depth Level Cmp Att Cmp Yds TD Int Pen Att Pen Yds Total Att Total Yds YPA
Short (1-10 yds) 260 340 2,188 12 3 4 8 344 2,196 6.4
Medium (11-19 yds) 58 93 930 8 5 3 43 96 973 10.1
Deep (20-29 yds) 19 35 635 6 1 1 25 36 660 18.3
Bomb (30+ yds) 9 19 441 5 0 1 -10 20 431 21.6
Other (tipped passes, throwaways, etc.) 0 35 -10 0 1 2 7 37 -3 -0.1
Vertical (11+ yds) 86 147 2,006 19 6 5 58 152 2,064 13.6
Stretch vertical (20+ yds) 28 54 1,076 11 1 2 15 56 1,091 19.5
Overall total 346 522 4,184 31 10 11 73 533 4,257 8.0
Romo was tied for fifth in overall yards per attempt (YPA) among quarterbacks with 500 or more passing attempts. He also ranked second in the league in deep YPA, third in bomb YPA, third in vertical YPA and second in stretch vertical YPA.
It's not a total surprise that Romo is such a great thrower down the field, but it's one of those indicators where he's in the upper echelon, and it's an area NFL quarterbacks are measured on by evaluators. And it looks even better next to another key stat ...
Low bad decision rate (BDR)
The route-depth metrics highlight Romo's overall productivity, but what makes those achievements even more impressive is that he was able to post them while concurrently racking up a very low bad decision rate (BDR).
BDR is a metric that gauges how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads either to a turnover or a near turnover, like a dropped interception or fumble that is recovered by the offense.
The nine-year track record of this metric shows that a 2 percent or lower BDR is an above-average mark for a dink-and-dunk passer, while gunslinger quarterbacks can take pride in a BDR under 3 percent.
Romo has earned a reputation as a gunslinger, in part because of games like last year's Week 4 contest against the Detroit Lions, in which his many errors were instrumental in helping the Lions come back from a 27-3 third-quarter deficit to win the game 34-30.
As poor as that performance was, Romo still posted a 1.8 percent BDR for the season. That total ranked fifth-best among qualifying quarterbacks (minimum 175 attempts) and is doubly notable because it's quite rare for a risk-taking quarterback to post a BDR under 2 percent.
High Total QBR
Last season, Romo ranked fourth in the league in ESPN's Total QBR metric with a 70.1 rating, behind only Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady. This system is incredibly difficult to excel in because it accounts for a wide variety of factors and is thus relatively immune to the statistical vagaries that can sometimes throw off other metric measurements.
A long history of top-level statistical performance
Romo isn't just a one-year metric wonder. According to pro-football-reference.com, Romo is tied for fifth in NFL history in career yards per pass attempt. He also ranks tied for second in career adjusted yards per pass attempt, second in career adjusted net yards per pass attempt, sixth in career completion percentage and is the leader in net career yards per pass attempt. Romo ranks seventh in the league in quarterback wins since 2006, despite missing 13 games in that time, and had four fourth-quarter winning drives wins last season -- giving him 14 for his career.
Ability to raise the level of play of those around him
All of those numbers are building blocks for Romo's top-5 case, but the largest one may be how he displayed an elite ability to raise the level of play of those around him last season.
To illustrate this, note that Romo threw 171 passes to Dez Bryant and Miles Austin. Those two racked up 1,520 yards on those targets, a total that equates to an 8.9 YPA.
Now contrast that to the numbers posted by the backup wide receivers Jesse Holley, Kevin Ogletree and Laurent Robinson. They compiled 1,220 yards on a combined 114 targets, totals that equate to a 10.7 YPA, or a mark nearly 2 yards higher than the YPA posted by Bryant and Austin. Few passers are able to achieve double-digit YPA productivity out of no-name backups, and these figures show Romo has proved he is capable of doing that.
Changing of the elite guard at the quarterback position
It's safe to say that Brady, Brees and Rodgers are the consensus top three quarterbacks (take your pick in which order).
After that, the rankings start to get cloudy. Eli Manning 's second Super Bowl win probably vaults him to a No. 4, but that happens with the condition that the younger Manning has struggled mightily with interceptions throughout his career. And every other potentially elite quarterback has some kind of question mark as well.
Last year, Philip Rivers had his worst season since 2007 and Ben Roethlisberger had his worst season since 2008. Matt Ryan still has big-time downfield passing woes, despite having two great wideouts (he ranked tied for 21st in vertical YPA and tied for 28th in stretch vertical YPA last season). The Baltimore Ravens win a lot of games with Joe Flacco under center, but it's often in spite of, rather than because of, the team's passing performance level. Michael Vick can't stay healthy, Jay Cutler still has horrible decision-making skills (he ranked next-to-last in BDR in 2011) and Peyton Manning has a brilliant track record that could put him at or near the top of any ranking at the position, but he has yet to prove conclusively that he is back to his pre-injury physical state.
No signs of letting up
The Cowboys' offense has the tools to be one of the best in the NFL in 2012. In addition to the aforementioned elite wideouts, Dallas possesses one of the best vertical tight ends in Jason Witten (ranked second in the league in vertical YPA among tight ends with 20 or more vertical targets).
That across-the-board passing prowess is nearly equaled by a Cowboys running game that ranked eighth in the league in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) category. (GBYPA measures rushing productivity on plays with good blocking.)
Combine those offensive elements with the makings of what could be a vastly improved defense and it means Dallas head coach Jason Garrett should be able to be even more aggressive in his play calling, a prospect that should cast fear into the hearts of every defensive coordinator in the NFL.
Given the factors listed above, Romo is not only a top-5 NFL quarterback now, but he should continue to be one this season and into the future.
