49ers Schedule Released - How will we do?

[DurbanPoison2121]

After the first two relatively easy games, we see a rather hard stretch of games for the first 1/3 of the season.

At Denver, then Rams at home. The Rams are loaded again and Wilson has always managed to beat us. WE get a 2 game break with the east coast road trip Panthers and Falcons, but then it's back to back tough games against the Chiefs and at Rams. Then the bye, but we still play the playoff-level chargers.

The last half of the schedule looks relatively easy by comparison and like i said earlier, there isn't a lot of travel miles. That early 1/3 or 1/2 of the schedule will be tough.

I'm not as sold on the Rams. They got Wagner and Robinson, but it doesn't take away the stink of losing like 10 starters, including two different players on their OL, Whitworth being one of them. I get that they are in division and they are a rival so the game will be close...but I feel that the overall talent level of the Niners surpasses where the Rams are at.

 

[DurbanPoison2121]

Totally agree but here is the rub. Lance isn’t a little bit better. Think we take a step backwards with him. Time will tell.

We don't know that. What we know is that physically, Lance is superior to JG in virtually every category, from arm strength to mobility. Both showed the tendency to not see open receivers downfield but only one of them looked to push the ball down the field. JG has a much quicker release, which is the one physical trait he has on Lance. The unknown is how quickly Lance processes defenses and his reads relative to JG. However IMO, JG's season last season is easily repeatable by Lance given the talent around him. You think that Lance can't account for 20 TDs w 12INTs and 3500 yds passing? I think he can, especially considering Shanny's knack for scheming guys open.

 

[TheLonestarDUCK]

We don't know that. What we know is that physically, Lance is superior to JG in virtually every category, from arm strength to mobility. Both showed the tendency to not see open receivers downfield but only one of them looked to push the ball down the field. JG has a much quicker release, which is the one physical trait he has on Lance. The unknown is how quickly Lance processes defenses and his reads relative to JG. However IMO, JG's season last season is easily repeatable by Lance given the talent around him. You think that Lance can't account for 20 TDs w 12INTs and 3500 yds passing? I think he can, especially considering Shanny's knack for scheming guys open.

Granted we only have a small sample. He is a FCS QB with only 2 games against NFL competition, his decision making in the games he played, wasn’t great. But the analysis was he is young and that will improve over time. That is my point, I don’t want to wait. In practice and drills he is not very accurate. Appreciate fans being optimistic. Contracts aside I would rather have Jimmy than Lance.

 

[DurbanPoison2121]

Granted we only have a small sample. He is a FCS QB with only 2 games against NFL competition, his decision making in the games he played, wasn’t great. But the analysis was he is young and that will improve over time. That is my point, I don’t want to wait. In practice and drills he is not very accurate. Appreciate fans being optimistic. Contracts aside I would rather have Jimmy than Lance.

I respectfully disagree with your assessment that Lance's decision making wasn't great only to say you would rather have JG. JG's decision making is suspect as well. How many times did he throw the ball RIGHT to a LB dropping back in coverage as if the LB were his WR? JG's INTs are mostly NOT a product of giving his WRs a chance but rather throwing into double and triple coverage with NO improvement over the past 3+ years.

With Lance, I saw noticeable improvement from the ARZ game to the Texans game, especially as the game went on. Lance was significantly better in the second half then the first, despite defensive adjustments made at halftime. There is upside to this kid that JG could only dream of and his floor IMO is JG's ceiling in Shanny's offense. It's optimism for sure, but with evidence, not just blind faith.

 

[TheLonestarDUCK]

I respectfully disagree with your assessment that Lance's decision making wasn't great only to say you would rather have JG. JG's decision making is suspect as well. How many times did he throw the ball RIGHT to a LB dropping back in coverage as if the LB were his WR? JG's INTs are mostly NOT a product of giving his WRs a chance but rather throwing into double and triple coverage with NO improvement over the past 3+ years.

With Lance, I saw noticeable improvement from the ARZ game to the Texans game, especially as the game went on. Lance was significantly better in the second half then the first, despite defensive adjustments made at halftime. There is upside to this kid that JG could only dream of and his floor IMO is JG's ceiling in Shanny's offense. It's optimism for sure, but with evidence, not just blind faith.

First half against the worst team in the league Lance was not good. The team (players) love Jimmy, hence his record. Give me the QB that has been to the Conference championship 2 of last 3 years vs unproven FCS QB.

 

[deep9er]

After the first two relatively easy games, we see a rather hard stretch of games for the first 1/3 of the season.

At Denver, then Rams at home. The Rams are loaded again and Wilson has always managed to beat us. WE get a 2 game break with the east coast road trip Panthers and Falcons, but then it's back to back tough games against the Chiefs and at Rams. Then the bye, but we still play the playoff-level chargers.

The last half of the schedule looks relatively easy by comparison and like i said earlier, there isn't a lot of travel miles. That early 1/3 or 1/2 of the schedule will be tough.

Yes, the first part is harder and so we need to win the 'winnable' games, especially Seattle. Next, don't lose both games to the Rams, at least split the series. If we can get to 5-3 with wins over Seattle and a split with the Rams, i'd take that.

The Rams face two tough teams (Bills and Packers) we don't, we should be in the race to the end. IF the Rams sweep our series and beat these two teams, they deserve the NFC West.

 

[deep9er]

I respectfully disagree with your assessment that Lance's decision making wasn't great only to say you would rather have JG. JG's decision making is suspect as well. How many times did he throw the ball RIGHT to a LB dropping back in coverage as if the LB were his WR? JG's INTs are mostly NOT a product of giving his WRs a chance but rather throwing into double and triple coverage with NO improvement over the past 3+ years.

With Lance, I saw noticeable improvement from the ARZ game to the Texans game, especially as the game went on. Lance was significantly better in the second half then the first, despite defensive adjustments made at halftime. There is upside to this kid that JG could only dream of and his floor IMO is JG's ceiling in Shanny's offense. It's optimism for sure, but with evidence, not just blind faith.

Agree there is some evidence to go on, Lance isn't a pure rookie going into this season.

JG was good for the 49ers but not good enough to win SB's. He has already proven to hit his ceiling with the 49ers. Throwing 8-10 yards down the middle isn't good enough, we're wasting our window if we stick with JG. In todays NFL, you need to throw to all areas of the field IF you're a statue, an example is Mac Jones. A statue that has one throw to one area is easier to defend.

What we saw in the Houston game was such an improvement by Lance. More importantly, we saw how much more the offense will become with Lance at the helm. Lance can throw it anywhere on the field, not only avoid some (not all) rushes but gain yards. Lance won't be good off the bat, but opening up the offense gives us a much better chance to win play-off games.

 

[deep9er]

First half against the worst team in the league Lance was not good. The team (players) love Jimmy, hence his record. Give me the QB that has been to the Conference championship 2 of last 3 years vs unproven FCS QB.

All current good QB's were once unproven.

We didn't get to the two Conference Championship games riding JG's arm. Can you cite even one play-off game we won because JG had a good passing day? Cite one play-off game that JG passed so well, we didn't sweat it out? This question applies to the entire game, not the last drive.

We need more offense - ie scoring - come play-off time.

 

[DurbanPoison2121]

First half against the worst team in the league Lance was not good. The team (players) love Jimmy, hence his record. Give me the QB that has been to the Conference championship 2 of last 3 years vs unproven FCS QB.

Ok, this is such a backwards argument. You have players like Jalen Hurts, whose numbers in the 2nd half of games is significantly worse on a regular basis and his lack of processing changes is obvious. Regardless of what you think, playing the Texans, where virtually every player of theirs was an All-American at some point in their HS and/or college careers, is a huge step up from FCS...and he showed the ability to improve as the game went on. At 21 years old. You can't say he didn't play anyone, then when pointing to a team he played, suddenly make excuses as to how an NFL team is trash so it is discounted. How about the Cards game? His first game and he was significantly worse in that game, largely bc the play calling sucked out loud, and yet almost won that game back when the Cards were undefeated.

As far as judging Lance on a first half when ignoring JG's incompetence in whole ass portions of the schedule is interesting. 5 INTs vs Steelers in 2019. Hospital balls to our receivers as he leads them high over the middle. Hell, he threw 2-3 balls in the flat vs. GB in this year's playoffs that SHOULD have been pick-6's. I know he was playing injured, but it was his decision making and making the same mistake multiple times without changing that I question. We know JG's ceiling and his requires a team of All Stars around him in order to have a chance of being good. History proved that. Now we got a kid whose floor seems to be JG's ceiling and you seem to like the devil you know instead of the devil you don't.

Given your stance on the QB issue, you would have wanted to keep Alex Smith over seeing Patrick Mahomes get snaps. I've seen what JG can do...and I just don't think its enough to get us over the hump.

 

[TheLonestarDUCK]

Ok, this is such a backwards argument. You have players like Jalen Hurts, whose numbers in the 2nd half of games is significantly worse on a regular basis and his lack of processing changes is obvious. Regardless of what you think, playing the Texans, where virtually every player of theirs was an All-American at some point in their HS and/or college careers, is a huge step up from FCS...and he showed the ability to improve as the game went on. At 21 years old. You can't say he didn't play anyone, then when pointing to a team he played, suddenly make excuses as to how an NFL team is trash so it is discounted. How about the Cards game? His first game and he was significantly worse in that game, largely bc the play calling sucked out loud, and yet almost won that game back when the Cards were undefeated.

As far as judging Lance on a first half when ignoring JG's incompetence in whole ass portions of the schedule is interesting. 5 INTs vs Steelers in 2019. Hospital balls to our receivers as he leads them high over the middle. Hell, he threw 2-3 balls in the flat vs. GB in this year's playoffs that SHOULD have been pick-6's. I know he was playing injured, but it was his decision making and making the same mistake multiple times without changing that I question. We know JG's ceiling and his requires a team of All Stars around him in order to have a chance of being good. History proved that. Now we got a kid whose floor seems to be JG's ceiling and you seem to like the devil you know instead of the devil you don't.

Given your stance on the QB issue, you would have wanted to keep Alex Smith over seeing Patrick Mahomes get snaps. I've seen what JG can do...and I just don't think its enough to get us over the hump.

I wanted to keep Alex Smith over Krapernick. I don’t want to wait to for Lance’s ceiling, he may never evolve to what people are praying for. With Jimmy we have a proven 70% winner. If Tart doesn’t drop the interception, we may be talking about Super Bowl winner Jimmy Garoppolo.

 

[deep9er]

I wanted to keep Alex Smith over Krapernick. I don’t want to wait to for Lance’s ceiling, he may never evolve to what people are praying for. With Jimmy we have a proven 70% winner. If Tart doesn’t drop the interception, we may be talking about Super Bowl winner Jimmy Garoppolo.

JG was in the '19 Superbowl and he didn't perform well enough to win it. JG didn't even get us to that SB, the running game and defense did.
As good as that '19 team was surrounding JG, we didn't win it.......why?

Last season we had a good team surrounding JG again, how did we beat Dallas? How did we beat Green Bay? How did we lose to LAR? Stick with JG and we win 70% of the regular season games, but then struggle in the play-offs.

 

[TheLonestarDUCK]

JG was in the '19 Superbowl and he didn't perform well enough to win it. JG didn't even get us to that SB, the running game and defense did.
As good as that '19 team was surrounding JG, we didn't win it.......why?

Last season we had a good team surrounding JG again, how did we beat Dallas? How did we beat Green Bay? How did we lose to LAR? Stick with JG and we win 70% of the regular season games, but then struggle in the play-offs.

Isn’t JG 4-2 in the playoffs?

 

[DurbanPoison2121]

Isn’t JG 4-2 in the playoffs?

Nope, the Niners are 4-2 in the playoffs. Look at the stats. Our running game and defense carried most of those victories. Jimmy didn't do shit in at least two of those games based on memory alone. GB last year, MIN two years prior. They potentially don't make the playoffs if Lance doesn't beat the Texans.

 

[DurbanPoison2121]

I wanted to keep Alex Smith over Krapernick. I don’t want to wait to for Lance’s ceiling, he may never evolve to what people are praying for. With Jimmy we have a proven 70% winner. If Tart doesn’t drop the interception, we may be talking about Super Bowl winner Jimmy Garoppolo.

And if the GB DBs catch any of the 3 balls thrown in the flat that were defended, it's a pick-6 or 3 and we never make it to the NFCCG. Two can play that game.

 

[deep9er]

Isn’t JG 4-2 in the playoffs?

Isn't Kittle 4-2 in the play-offs? Is Arik Armstead 4-2 in the play-offs?

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Isn’t JG 4-2 in the playoffs?

LOL, playoffs? Playoffs??

JG's Per Game Playoff Averages:
2019 - 3 games -12 of 19 for 142.3yds, 63.8% compl., 0.67 TDs, 1 INT
2021 - 3 games -14 of 24 for 178.3yds, 58.3% compl., 0.67 TDs, 1 INT

Those are pathetic numbers. Jimmy averages ONE INT per game in the playoffs, but less than ONE TD pass. Forget 300yd games! The man doesn't even have a 200yd average. Looks like Trent Dilfer-level numbers.

What's that? "He wins games!" He sure does, but the number says he plays very little part in winning those games.

 

[TheLonestarDUCK]

Like I said hope you guys are right. Putting a ton of faith in a FCS QB, that is in accurate.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Like I said hope you guys are right. Putting a ton of faith in a FCS QB, that is in accurate.

It was either plan for another QB or reup Jimmy--and Jimmy wasn't going to be offered any more than he was already making and between Jimmy's injury history and lack of playoff contributions, hitching our wagon to Jimmy for another 4 years was too much of a risk.

The FO made its call as soon as they traded up for Lance. At that point, Jimmy was a dead man walking and Lance would be the starter in either 2021 or 2022.

I have no idea if we picked the right QB, but the calculus of the trade up was right--that is, if we were ever going to trade up for a rookie QB, that was the time to do it (good QB draft, high pick coming off a bad year).

 

[TheLonestarDUCK]

It was either plan for another QB or reup Jimmy--and Jimmy wasn't going to be offered any more than he was already making and between Jimmy's injury history and lack of playoff contributions, hitching our wagon to Jimmy for another 4 years was too much of a risk.

The FO made its call as soon as they traded up for Lance. At that point, Jimmy was a dead man walking and Lance would be the starter in either 2021 or 2022.

I have no idea if we picked the right QB, but the calculus of the trade up was right--that is, if we were ever going to trade up for a rookie QB, that was the time to do it (good QB draft, high pick coming off a bad year).

Yes get all that - been a fan since John Brodie. I hope I’m wrong but Lynch and Co. made a mistake. Obviously there is a ton of BS slung around on a message board. Believe me or not but trust me, staff is not happy with his progress.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Yes get all that - been a fan since John Brodie. I hope I’m wrong but Lynch and Co. made a mistake. Obviously there is a ton of BS slung around on a message board. Believe me or not but trust me, staff is not happy with his progress.

I've said from the get-go thsi year that we'd miss the playoffs b/c lance will struggle in his first season as a starter. The issue will be whether Lance progresses and how much slack Shanny has. Kyle is under contract through 2025. So he's safe through 2023, but by then we'll know if Lance is a failure or not--does Shanny get the axe if lance fails or is he given a 2nd chance?