2025 Season

[UVA_Guy81]

Since the start of the season is officially under way with Spring Training games starting yesterday, I figured this was a good time as any to start a season thread.

 

[UVA_Guy81]

The Orioles and Nationals are finally getting a MASN divorce

The decade-plus saga has come to an end, MLB announced on Monday morning.

www.camdenchat.com

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Okay, what's going on with all these preseason injuries?

• Gunnar Henderson with "right intercoastal strain" / Andrew Kittredge with "left knee soreness"
• Grayson Rodriguez with "triceps soreness"

Hopefully, it's not the worst-case scenario of "season already over before it even started"... but what's the short-term backup plan if any of them cannot return by Opening Day? As I see it:

• If Henderson is unavailable: One possibility is Holliday at SS / Westburg at 2B / Urías at 3B, with Liván Soto or Vimael Machín called up to be the backup infielder. (Coby Mayo is another possibility since calling him up would not require removing anyone from the 40-man roster, but he doesn't seem ready yet...)
  
  
• If Kittredge is unavailable: If we limit to the 40-man roster, the current choices are between Bryan Baker, Colin Selby, Kade Strowd, or Luis González. (It's probably not going to be Selby since he was already optioned on 3/2.)
  
  
• If Rodriguez is unavailable: Again limiting to the 40-man roster, the choices are Brandon Young, Cade Povich, and Roansy Contreras. (Of course, another possibility is to temporarily move Albert Suárez back to the #5 starter spot and call up a reliever instead-- but Suárez has struggled during this year'sSpring Training.)

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Okay, what's going on with all these preseason injuries?

For additional bad news:

• Confirmed: Rodriguez and Kittredge "will miss season's start"
• In addition to Henderson being injured, Tyler O'Neil was also "scratched from the lineup on March 6 as a precaution"

(Overreaction of the day: "Maybe this team should have started rebuilding at the trade deadline in 2024? Do the Orioles need to replace their strength and conditioning staff as well?" Or are we in "fire Elias yesterday" territory? Either way, Fangraphs is currently projecting Povich and Baker as the replacements for Rodriguez and Kittredge, while still expecting Henderson and O'Neil to recover in time for Opening Day.)

 

[UVA_Guy81]

For additional bad news:

• Confirmed: Rodriguez and Kittredge "will miss season's start"
• In addition to Henderson being injured, Tyler O'Neil was also "scratched from the lineup on March 6 as a precaution"

(Overreaction of the day: "Maybe this team should have started rebuilding at the trade deadline in 2024? Do the Orioles need to replace their strength and conditioning staff as well?" Or are we in "fire Elias yesterday" territory? Either way, Fangraphs is currently projecting Povich and Baker as the replacements for Rodriguez and Kittredge, while still expecting Henderson and O'Neil to recover in time for Opening Day.)

Not there in the fire Elias mentality yet but I do feel like he needs to get his head out of his ass about signing free agents when we now have an owner that at least says that he's willing to spend some money on free agents.
I'm just wondering how some of these players' offseason workout regimen's are. Replacing the staff might not be the worst idea, especially if the injuries continue to pile up.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Not there in the fire Elias mentality yet but I do feel like he needs to get his head out of his ass about signing free agents when we now have an owner that at least says that he's willing to spend some money on free agents.

I'm just wondering how some of these players' offseason workout regimen's are. Replacing the staff might not be the worst idea, especially if the injuries continue to pile up.

Interestingly enough, we might have another case where "injuries are an equalizer":

• Take a look at the Yankees for example: Gerritt Cole and Luis Gil are expected to be sidelined for a while as well, and the knock-on effect of this is an expected loss of 0.5 projected fWAR on the aggregate according to Fangraphs. (The estimate was 49.5 team fWAR about a month ago, versus 49.0 now; the difference consists of -0.4 fWAR among starting pitchers, and -0.1 fWAR among relievers.)
  
  
• For comparison, the figures for the Orioles are 47.4 fWAR about a month ago, versus 47.8 now. (Presumably, there is a rounding error involved in the displayed numbers, as the apparent difference is -0.1 fWAR for SP and +0.3 fWAR for RP, which should result in a net increase of only 0.2 fWAR as opposed to 0.4 fWAR.)

So how did the "lead in talent level on paper" for the 2025 Yankees over the 2025 Orioles drop from 1.6 fWAR to 1.2 fWAR despite both teams losing multiple players to injuries? It looks like it's because the reduction of projected playing time for Cole and Gil are a bigger deal:

• For the Yankees:
  • Cole: 3.0 fWAR => 2.2 fWAR (-52 IP); Gil: 1.7 fWAR => 1.0 fWAR (-61 IP); net -1.5 fWAR
    
    
  • Some of those innings are expected to go to Clarke Schmidt (+0.4 fWAR), Marcus Stroman (+0.3 fWAR), or Will Warren (+0.5 fWAR). That's net -0.3 fWAR, and the remaining -0.2 fWAR can be considered "rounding error" from other pitchers
    
    
• For the Orioles:
  • Rodriguez: 2.6 fWAR => 2.4 fWAR (-10 IP); Kittredge: 0.3 fWAR => 0.1 fWAR (-28 IP); net -0.4 fWAR
    
    
  • So it looks like the model is currently projecting a short absence for Rodriguez, and those innings are expected to go to Kremer / Sugano / Povich (+0.2 fWAR total); the rest can be considered rounding error. For Kittredge, it looks like the 28 innings are being spread out among multiple relievers, and the projected value for Dominguez and Pérez increased slightly (net +0.3 fWAR).

Does this mean "there's no point in signing an ace?" Of course not-- but from a "risk diversification" standpoint, it does suggest that "multiple above-average players" may be a better choice than "one superstar" if both options are projected to provide the same amount of marginal value on the aggregate. (Still, even then this is more of an argument for preferring a rotation of "only #2-3 types" over "one real ace supported by a #3 type and three #4/5 types"-- right now, the Orioles are pretty much hoping that the multiple question marks in their pitching would pan out.)

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Interestingly enough, we might have another case where "injuries are an equalizer":

• Take a look at the Yankees for example: Gerritt Cole and Luis Gil are expected to be sidelined for a while as well, and the knock-on effect of this is an expected loss of 0.5 projected fWAR on the aggregate according to Fangraphs. (The estimate was 49.5 team fWAR about a month ago, versus 49.0 now; the difference consists of -0.4 fWAR among starting pitchers, and -0.1 fWAR among relievers.)
  
  
• For comparison, the figures for the Orioles are 47.4 fWAR about a month ago, versus 47.8 now. (Presumably, there is a rounding error involved in the displayed numbers, as the apparent difference is -0.1 fWAR for SP and +0.3 fWAR for RP, which should result in a net increase of only 0.2 fWAR as opposed to 0.4 fWAR.)

So how did the "lead in talent level on paper" for the 2025 Yankees over the 2025 Orioles drop from 1.6 fWAR to 1.2 fWAR despite both teams losing multiple players to injuries? It looks like it's because the reduction of projected playing time for Cole and Gil are a bigger deal:

• For the Yankees:
  • Cole: 3.0 fWAR => 2.2 fWAR (-52 IP); Gil: 1.7 fWAR => 1.0 fWAR (-61 IP); net -1.5 fWAR
    
    
  • Some of those innings are expected to go to Clarke Schmidt (+0.4 fWAR), Marcus Stroman (+0.3 fWAR), or Will Warren (+0.5 fWAR). That's net -0.3 fWAR, and the remaining -0.2 fWAR can be considered "rounding error" from other pitchers
    
• For the Orioles:
  • Rodriguez: 2.6 fWAR => 2.4 fWAR (-10 IP); Kittredge: 0.3 fWAR => 0.1 fWAR (-28 IP); net -0.4 fWAR
    
    
  • So it looks like the model is currently projecting a short absence for Rodriguez, and those innings are expected to go to Kremer / Sugano / Povich (+0.2 fWAR total); the rest can be considered rounding error. For Kittredge, it looks like the 28 innings are being spread out among multiple relievers, and the projected value for Dominguez and Pérez increased slightly (net +0.3 fWAR).

Does this mean "there's no point in signing an ace?" Of course not-- but from a "risk diversification" standpoint, it does suggest that "multiple above-average players" may be a better choice than "one superstar" if both options are projected to provide the same amount of marginal value on the aggregate. (Still, even then this is more of an argument for preferring a rotation of "only #2-3 types" over "one real ace supported by a #3 type and three #4/5 types"-- right now, the Orioles are pretty much hoping that the multiple question marks in their pitching would pan out.)

Hopefully it is. Grayson just needs to stay healthy as it always seems he's on the IL at least once a season. He has the ace potential as he's definitely gotten better over the years. I'm just not always keen on trading away for ace's unless there's a good chance that we can or try hard to resign him. I would've loved to have kept Burnes but I just honestly think he wanted to be on the west coast and it would've taken a much higher offer from us to entice him to stay. And I'm glad we didn't trade for Cease as I think he'd be another one and done and wasn't likely going to be the one piece to put the team over the top and probably wouldn't have wanted to resign here anyways.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Interestingly enough, we might have another case where "injuries are an equalizer" [...]

And it's now confirmed that Gerrit Cole will need Tommy John surgery after all, which is unfortunate even though this does reduce the talent level gap to a rounding error on paper (47.9 team fWAR for the 2025 Yankees vs. 47.7 for the Orioles):

For the Yankees:

• Cole: 3.0 fWAR => 0.0 (-183 IP); Gil: 1.7 fWAR => 1.0 (-59 IP); net -3.7 fWAR
  
  
• These innings are mostly expected to go to Marcus Stroman (+73 IP, +0.6 fWAR), Clarke Schmidt (+26 IP, +0.4 fWAR), Will Warren (+85 IP, +1.1 fWAR), and Carlos Carrasco (+33 IP, +0.2 fWAR); another 0.2 fWAR was apparently lost due to a slight increase of replacement-level bullpen usage. The result is -1.6 fWAR on the aggregate from pitching.

For the Orioles:

• Rodriguez: 2.6 fWAR => 2.2 (-21 IP, which suggests a slightly longer absence); Kittredge: Still 0.3 fWAR => 0.1 fWAR (-28 IP); net -0.6 fWAR
  
  
• The starting innings are still expected to go to Kremer / Sugano / Povich for +0.2 fWAR, while the updated projections for the bullpen added another 0.3 fWAR for Dominguez and Pérez for some unknown. The result is -0.1 fWAR on the aggregate from pitching.

---

So the lesson here is perhaps the adage "availability is the best ability"-- in the sense that avoiding injuries in the first place could potentially produce more marginal value than acquring "better" players. In the case of the 2025 Orioles, that means preventing Rodriguez's situation from worsening to the point of needing a Tommy John surgery himself as well (if possible), and maybe applying more "load management" as needed (especially for pitchers, plus Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson given the precedent of what happened during the 2024 season when they couldn't get enough rest). To put it more bluntly: "Better lose a game than to lose a player for the season."

 

[skinz2winz]

Pitching looking awful suspect right now. Elias, all eyes are on you.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Pitching looking awful suspect right now. Elias, all eyes are on you.

On the bright side, Sugano looks like a possible ace based on the Spring Training numbers so far (zero ERA / 0.77 WHIP).

(In all seriousness: If you were Mike Elias, would you consider "selling high" on Coby Mayo later this season by trading him for pitching while he still has value? After all, Mayo is technically expendable since Kjerstad can also play 1B, and there is no shortage of outfielders at the AAA level for now...)

 

[skinz2winz]

If you were Mike Elias, would you consider trading Coby Mayo for pitching while he still has value (given his 2025 Spring Training stats)? After all, Mayo is technically expendable since Kjerstad can also play 1B, and there is no shortage of outfielders at the AAA level for now...

I would have made a move when more pitchers were available. At this point, I target a trade looking for a 1-2 with more than 1 year remaining of team control.

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Orioles sign Kyle Gibson to one-year deal

SARASOTA, Fla. – The quest for starter depth has caused the Orioles to circle back to Kyle Gibson.The club announced tonight that it signed Gibson to a one-year contract. A source confirmed that the deal guarantees $5.25 million. The Athletic also reported that Gibson can earn $1.525 million in...

www.masnsports.com

I figure it’s because of one of two things.
1. Grayson’s injury is worse than anyone’s letting on.
2. They don’t think Povich is ready for that 5th slot and want Suarez to stay in the long relief role.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Orioles sign Kyle Gibson to one-year deal

SARASOTA, Fla. – The quest for starter depth has caused the Orioles to circle back to Kyle Gibson.The club announced tonight that it signed Gibson to a one-year contract. A source confirmed that the deal guarantees $5.25 million. The Athletic also reported that Gibson can earn $1.525 million in...

www.masnsports.com

I figure it’s because of one of two things.
1. Grayson’s injury is worse than anyone’s letting on.
2. They don’t think Povich is ready for that 5th slot and want Suarez to stay in the long relief role.

I see two more possibilities (which are not mutually exclusive with your two hypotheses):

3. They are concerned that Albert Suárez might be questionable for even the long relief role in 2025 (due to regression of effectiveness) and thought that Kyle Gibson would be good insurance in that regard (even if Cade Povich turns out to be a serviceable #5 starter).

4. Since Trevor Rogers and Chayce McDermott are still injured, the Orioles need additional depth besides Brandon Young and Roansy Contreras in case they lose another starting pitcher from the major league roster due to injury. (In other words, Gibson isn't replacing anyone immediately; he will probably be stashed at the AAA level temporarily anyway since he missed Spring Training.)

 

[UVA_Guy81]

I see two more possibilities (which are not mutually exclusive with your two hypotheses):

3. They are concerned that Albert Suárez might be questionable for even the long relief role in 2025 (due to regression of effectiveness) and thought that Kyle Gibson would be good insurance in that regard (even if Cade Povich turns out to be a serviceable #5 starter).

4. Since Trevor Rogers and Chayce McDermott are still injured, the Orioles need additional depth besides Brandon Young and Roansy Contreras in case they lose another starting pitcher from the major league roster due to injury. (In other words, Gibson isn't replacing anyone immediately; he will probably be stashed at the AAA level temporarily anyway since he missed Spring Training.)

I could see him doing that extended Spring Training that they sometimes do with guys. Get him stretched out a bit more and see what happens from there.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

So it is now confirmed that Gunnar Henderson will start the 2025 season on the injured list; as I had previously mentioned, the most likely short-term workaround is probably "Holliday at SS / Westburg at 2B / Urías at 3B"-- which is consistent with recent Spring Training lineups. The interesting question is whether the Orioles would call up Liván Soto or Vimael Machín called up to be the backup infielder; Fangraphs is currently projecting Machín presumably based on Spring Training numbers, although it should be noted that both of them have arguably been "lucky" from a BABIP standpoint.

(Apparently, both Soto and Machín have options remaining, and thus the question may partly boil down to whether they want more offensive output or speed / defense from the backup infielder. It should be noted that Machín is not yet on the 40-man roster; with Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells already been moved to the 60-day IL, making room for Machín would probably come with the tradeoff of exposing one of the AAA pitchers to a waiver claim.)

 

[hattersgonnahate]

So it is now confirmed that Gunnar Henderson will start the 2025 season on the injured list; as I had previously mentioned, the most likely short-term workaround is probably "Holliday at SS / Westburg at 2B / Urías at 3B"-- which is consistent with recent Spring Training lineups. The interesting question is whether the Orioles would call up Liván Soto or Vimael Machín to be the backup infielder; Fangraphs is currently projecting Machín presumably based on Spring Training numbers, although it should be noted that both of them have arguably been "lucky" from a BABIP standpoint.

(Apparently, both Soto and Machín have options remaining, and thus the question may partly boil down to whether they want more offensive output or speed / defense from the backup infielder. It should be noted that Machín is not yet on the 40-man roster; with Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells already moved to the 60-day IL, making room for Machín would probably come with the tradeoff of exposing one of the AAA pitchers to a waiver claim.)

Looks like Fangraphs has updated its projected depth chart again by penciling in Jorge Mateo as the backup infielder instead (even though the injury report still considers Mateo to be "questionable for Opening Day"). Also, Kyle Gibson has been officially optioned to AAA as of today... which is still consistent with everyone's interpretation that the Orioles are most likely treating him as stop-gap pitching depth.